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parrothead

Lucas Giolito 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, midlip said:

Nervous about throwing him out there today but I probably will 

 

if you aren't comfortable starting him today, he shouldn't be on your roster.

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The thing about Giolito is that he does have the stuff. People focus on the fastball velo (rightly so) but forget that he has a complete complement of pitches in his repertoire. Here's how he looked against the Cubs MLB lineup a few weeks ago: https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/lucas-giolito-strikes-out-8-cubs-in-spring-gem/c-268408466

 

He has several put-away pitches; the problem is that he still doesn't have a great feel for them, and his fastball command is shaky so it's not like he can throw that diving low and away breaker on 2-0, 2-1, etc. 

 

If you believe Giolito can continue to improve his command, you absolutely take him over any of the other guys just mentioned because he has top 30 upside. Guys drafted near his ADP don't have the same kind of ceiling because they've got worse control or only two effective pitches or whatever. When he's going good, Gio has four pitches he can go to. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

if you aren't comfortable starting him today, he shouldn't be on your roster.

 

It's 30 degrees in Chicago. I'm not sure how much I would trust a pitcher with control issues who can't feel his fingers.

 

OTOH, umpires usually will give you a larger zone on bad-weather days, so if there's a time for him to have a big strikeout game, this might be it. 

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2 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

The thing about Giolito is that he does have the stuff. People focus on the fastball velo (rightly so) but forget that he has a complete complement of pitches in his repertoire. Here's how he looked against the Cubs MLB lineup a few weeks ago: https://www.mlb.com/whitesox/news/lucas-giolito-strikes-out-8-cubs-in-spring-gem/c-268408466

 

He has several put-away pitches; the problem is that he still doesn't have a great feel for them, and his fastball command is shaky so it's not like he can throw that diving low and away breaker on 2-0, 2-1, etc. 

 

If you believe Giolito can continue to improve his command, you absolutely take him over any of the other guys just mentioned because he has top 30 upside. Guys drafted near his ADP don't have the same kind of ceiling because they've got worse control or only two effective pitches or whatever. When he's going good, Gio has four pitches he can go to. 

 

 

 

Which he has never before shown in the Major Leagues apparently ? 

 

Caleb Smith looked like a Cy Young candidate against hte Cubs in the Regular Season. And I think quite a few guys on that list could realistically finish in the Top 30, and find them to be more likely to do so. 

 

And again, I'm not talking about possibility here. But Giolito really hasn't shown much of a pulse in the majors as of yet. 

 

On BrooksBaseball, he has 113 Career Sliders with an 8.85% Whiff%. He has 157 Curves with a career 5.10% Whiff%. Those numbers are pretty damn putrid. Again, I'm not saying that his stuff can't come around, but a pitcher who hasn't shown really any consistent offering over the course of his career isn't someone I'm going after. 

 

And again-- I genuinely disagree that there's an upside argument here. Folty has a great K/9, Chatwood has plenty of Ratio/W/QS upside, Mahle and Boyd are young and had far better whiffs and outings in their first starts than Giolito. Clevinger I've made plenty of aggressive comparisons to already. And Reynaldo Lopez was a talented prospect too, and has shown far more signs of life at the major leagues. 

 

Why does Giolito just "have" greater upside than these players? 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Which he has never before shown in the Major Leagues apparently ? 

 

Caleb Smith looked like a Cy Young candidate against hte Cubs in the Regular Season. And I think quite a few guys on that list could realistically finish in the Top 30, and find them to be more likely to do so. 

 

And again, I'm not talking about possibility here. But Giolito really hasn't shown much of a pulse in the majors as of yet. 

 

On BrooksBaseball, he has 113 Career Sliders with an 8.85% Whiff%. He has 157 Curves with a career 5.10% Whiff%. Those numbers are pretty damn putrid. Again, I'm not saying that his stuff can't come around, but a pitcher who hasn't shown really any consistent offering over the course of his career isn't someone I'm going after. 

 

And again-- I genuinely disagree that there's an upside argument here. Folty has a great K/9, Chatwood has plenty of Ratio/W/QS upside, Mahle and Boyd are young and had far better whiffs and outings in their first starts than Giolito. Clevinger I've made plenty of aggressive comparisons to already. And Reynaldo Lopez was a talented prospect too, and has shown far more signs of life at the major leagues. 

 

Why does Giolito just "have" greater upside than these players? 

 

I don't think we can make any determinations based on a single start, whether for Gio or Mahle or Boyd...if Giolito threw 7 scoreless in his opening start, we probably wouldn't be having this argument, and that also wouldn't be a great indicator of future success or failure. 

 

Anyway, I am basing my assessment purely on potential -- I'm not a fastball guy like a lot of people. There's a reason a lot of guys that can throw 98-100 are pitching middle relief. It's because they don't have a full arsenal of pitches. Giolito does. No, it hasn't translated into consistent major league success yet, but I am betting that it will. I could be wrong. He might have a 4.40 ERA and 125 strikeouts this year. But if everyone we're talking about maxes out their potential, I still believe Giolito ends up on top because on a good day he'll have 4 plus pitches to go to. 

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2 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

I don't think we can make any determinations based on a single start, whether for Gio or Mahle or Boyd...if Giolito threw 7 scoreless in his opening start, we probably wouldn't be having this argument, and that also wouldn't be a great indicator of future success or failure. 

 

Anyway, I am basing my assessment purely on potential -- I'm not a fastball guy like a lot of people. There's a reason a lot of guys that can throw 98-100 are pitching middle relief. It's because they don't have a full arsenal of pitches. Giolito does. No, it hasn't translated into consistent major league success yet, but I am betting that it will. I could be wrong. He might have a 4.40 ERA and 125 strikeouts this year. But if everyone we're talking about maxes out their potential, I still believe Giolito ends up on top because on a good day he'll have 4 plus pitches to go to. 

 

I agree, I'm basing mine on his entire Major League career.... for the most part i've seen your defense of his stuff to be one Spring Training start. Why do you think he has such good consistent stuff? And that's not a loaded question-- I legitimately want to know. Because based on how I grade a repertoire, which is what I do-- go pitch-by-pitch on almost every pitcher-- Giolito has just a very uninspiring repertoire. 

 

I just don't agree at all that he has the full arsenal of pitches. That's where we're disagreeing. My argument doesn't have nothing to do with the fastball, but it literally has as much to do with my lack of faith in his secondary arsenal. 

 

And again, if you're talking about hating fastballs and loving arsenals, Mike Clevinger is VASTLY. And I mean VASTLY. superior to Giolito. And Clevinger, on a good day, has 4 plus pitches good to go. 

 

I just don't understand how you can give a guy 4 plus pitches when he hasn't shown one. That's my problem as originally stated, I'd like to see one pitch that I can believe can perform as consistently plus. 

 

But just as a general rule of thumb, I don't think you can say anyone has plus pitches at the major league level when they've literally never shown it at the major league level. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

I agree, I'm basing mine on his entire Major League career.... for the most part i've seen your defense of his stuff to be one Spring Training start. Why do you think he has such good consistent stuff? And that's not a loaded question-- I legitimately want to know. Because based on how I grade a repertoire, which is what I do-- go pitch-by-pitch on almost every pitcher-- Giolito has just a very uninspiring repertoire. 

 

I just don't agree at all that he has the full arsenal of pitches. That's where we're disagreeing. My argument doesn't have nothing to do with the fastball, but it literally has as much to do with my lack of faith in his secondary arsenal. 

 

And again, if you're talking about hating fastballs and loving arsenals, Mike Clevinger is VASTLY. And I mean VASTLY. superior to Giolito. And Clevinger, on a good day, has 4 plus pitches good to go. 

 

I just don't understand how you can give a guy 4 plus pitches when he hasn't shown one. That's my problem as originally stated, I'd like to see one pitch that I can believe can perform as consistently plus. 

 

But just as a general rule of thumb, I don't think you can say anyone has plus pitches at the major league level when they've literally never shown it at the major league level. 

 

Which is why I've said potential.  The guy is a lot less experienced than most assume. He doesn't have much of a ML career behind him yet (66 IP), and has gone through mechanical changes as well as adding/adjusting pitches very aggressively in the year he's worked through the White Sox system.

 

He's shown plus on his fastball and curveball consistently in the minors (except when he lost his FB and started overthrowing it at the start of last year), and has improved his slider and change year over year since joining the Sox. The change in particular looks night and day better this year. That he got so much movement on his off speed pitches in ST in AZ was a great sign. Again, it's all potential, it's all about him figuring out how to put it all together consistently as a major leaguer (needless to say a lot of guys never do), and he's certainly not as safe a bet as someone like Clevinger (who I do like a lot btw despite the terrifying walk rate). But the fact remains that every now and then, whether it's versus a batter or for an inning, he looks every bit of the top prospect he was pegged as, and frankly you either have to be on one side of the fence or the other: he'll never really figure it out and be consistent, or he will and will have himself a breakout year sooner rather than later. Seems like we're on opposite sides. 

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I have to agree with Tao on this. After watching his first start and seeing him pitch again today I don’t see any plus pitches. Unfortunately I ended up with him as an SP6 on several of my teams. He’ll be on a short leash for me going forward as I just don’t see a guy that can have a sub 4.00 ERA or k rate >8.5/9. Perhaps the FB velocity ticks up when he pitches in warmer weather.

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1 minute ago, sleepysock said:

 

Which is why I've said potential.  The guy is a lot less experienced than most assume. He doesn't have much of a ML career behind him yet (66 IP), and has gone through mechanical changes as well as adding/adjusting pitches very aggressively in the year he's worked through the White Sox system.

 

He's shown plus on his fastball and curveball consistently in the minors (except when he lost his FB and started overthrowing it at the start of last year), and has improved his slider and change year over year since joining the Sox. The change in particular looks night and day better this year. That he got so much movement on his off speed pitches in ST in AZ was a great sign. Again, it's all potential, it's all about him figuring out how to put it all together consistently as a major leaguer (needless to say a lot of guys never do), and he's certainly not as safe a bet as someone like Clevinger (who I do like a lot btw despite the terrifying walk rate). But the fact remains that every now and then, whether it's versus a batter or for an inning, he looks every bit of the top prospect he was pegged as, and frankly you either have to be on one side of the fence or the other: he'll never really figure it out and be consistent, or he will and will have himself a breakout year sooner rather than later. Seems like we're on opposite sides. 

 

Why on earth do you have to be on one side of the fence or the other at any point in time? There's plenty of in between. I believe I'm in the in-between. I've said constantly that I think Lucas Giolito can be something. I've not saying he'll never figure it out or be consistent. I never said that at all. But I think there's far more pitchers who have a far greater opportunity to reach their upside this year, and where we really disagree isn't the idea of what is possible for Giolito, it's this idea that Giolito has some remarkable upside that exceeds so many of the other players that have been mentioned or have talent and are pitching this year in the majors. That is the argument I don't understand and agree with. I'd love to see Giolito come to fruition, and would be surprised, but pleasantly so if it happened-- but I still even in that circumstance do not understand why Giolito's upside surpasses someone like his teammate Reynaldo Lopez, who seems to check the boxes, like Clevinger, on almost all your criteria, but is far less owned. 

 

So that's where we really disagree. You seem to think Giolito is worth a higher risk than I do, because you seem to think his Upside is so great that it makes the achievement of that upside so much better than other pitcher's reaching their upside. I don't really think that the upside surpasses the upside of especially a Clevinger, Lopez or really even a Boyd, Folty, etc. 

 

At the end of the day, there's a difference between knocking a fantasy option and thinking someone is a bad or doomed baseball player. There's roughly 150 healthy and active starters right now in the MLB. Just because I think that Giolito is in the uninterested pile to me isn't because I believe he's a talentless hack, but rather I'm evaluating like, 100+ situations at once, and when I look at them all, there's just soooooo many that I vastly prefer to Giolito right now. 

 

So good luck to Giolito. I'd like to see signs of life personally before I'm willing to even use him on a streaming basis, except for in perhaps the MOST obvious match-ups. 

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oh god that pitch that Victor Martinez just K'd on would get crushed by 99% of the MLB. I want to bail on this guy so hard, he is lucky it's only 2-0

 

edit: Castillo gets jones caught stealing, more luck sparing Gioloto from the 9.00 ERA he pitches worth

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4 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

oh god that pitch that Victor Martinez just K'd on would get crushed by 99% of the MLB. I want to bail on this guy so hard, he is lucky it's only 2-0

 

Frigid weather goes both ways: harder to control the ball as a pitcher (Fulmer and Gio have been all over the place despite mostly throwing fastballs), harder to catch up to a 93 mph fastball than in the summer. Hence why we have 6 SOs in addition to 6 BBs so far today (I mean, Fulmer has walked both Davidson and Anderson already  :o)

 

I remember playing in weather this cold a handful of times; you can bundle up and stretch and "get warm" as much as you want, but you'll never feel as loose or as quick through the zone with the bat as on an 80 degree day. 

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15 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Why on earth do you have to be on one side of the fence or the other at any point in time? There's plenty of in between. I believe I'm in the in-between. I've said constantly that I think Lucas Giolito can be something. I've not saying he'll never figure it out or be consistent. I never said that at all. But I think there's far more pitchers who have a far greater opportunity to reach their upside this year, and where we really disagree isn't the idea of what is possible for Giolito, it's this idea that Giolito has some remarkable upside that exceeds so many of the other players that have been mentioned or have talent and are pitching this year in the majors. That is the argument I don't understand and agree with. I'd love to see Giolito come to fruition, and would be surprised, but pleasantly so if it happened-- but I still even in that circumstance do not understand why Giolito's upside surpasses someone like his teammate Reynaldo Lopez, who seems to check the boxes, like Clevinger, on almost all your criteria, but is far less owned. 

 

So that's where we really disagree. You seem to think Giolito is worth a higher risk than I do, because you seem to think his Upside is so great that it makes the achievement of that upside so much better than other pitcher's reaching their upside. I don't really think that the upside surpasses the upside of especially a Clevinger, Lopez or really even a Boyd, Folty, etc. 

 

At the end of the day, there's a difference between knocking a fantasy option and thinking someone is a bad or doomed baseball player. There's roughly 150 healthy and active starters right now in the MLB. Just because I think that Giolito is in the uninterested pile to me isn't because I believe he's a talentless hack, but rather I'm evaluating like, 100+ situations at once, and when I look at them all, there's just soooooo many that I vastly prefer to Giolito right now. 

 

So good luck to Giolito. I'd like to see signs of life personally before I'm willing to even use him on a streaming basis, except for in perhaps the MOST obvious match-ups. 

 

Well regarding Lopez, he certainly wasn't checking all those boxes before his first start this year. He's throwing a different set of pitches (essentially swapping the curve out for a cutter with less movement, but that's easier for him to control), and obviously throwing his 4-seamer at 97.3 (+2.5 compared to last season) while commanding an 84 mph change doesn't hurt and will make a lot of hitters look foolish if he keeps it up. He was a stay-away guy for me before the season, but he's at least on my watch list for now.

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I'm watching as well and am not super impressed. He can't locate his fb at all. Hasn't been able to put the curve in the zone at all either

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I know I'm becoming the resident Gio excuse-maker (:lol:) but both his starts have been in terrible weather, and he clearly has had no feel for the ball. I'd give him at least one start where it isn't rainy or frigidly cold before making a determination, especially regarding the curveball, which he was throwing through a teacup through most of spring training. 

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Just now, sleepysock said:

I know I'm becoming the resident Gio excuse-maker (:lol:) but both his starts have been in terrible weather, and he clearly has had no feel for the ball. I'd give him at least one start where it isn't rainy or frigidly cold before making a determination, especially regarding the curveball, which he was throwing through a teacup through most of spring training. 

 

Right but as you did say, cold weather does work both ways. It silences hitters considerably too. I'll be interested to see the whiffs after the game. Weather could factor in, but it does clearly start feeling like an excuse, and two games of whiffs start to become relatively significant. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Right but as you did say, cold weather does work both ways. It silences hitters considerably too. I'll be interested to see the whiffs after the game. Weather could factor in, but it does clearly start feeling like an excuse, and two games of whiffs start to become relatively significant. 

 

Well if you can be near the plate in a cold weather game like today, you'll probably do okay. Case in point: Fulmer, who looked as bad as Giolito in terms of his stuff and missing his spots, but he wasn't hitting guys and when he missed the plate it was by a few inches rather than a foot. Giolito didn't throw a ton of curves, but I question why Castillo even called for them when it was clear his blue-fingered pitcher wasn't able to grip the ball. You would think after he nearly hit one batter in the face, nearly sailed one to the backstop, and bounced a few that Castillo would be like, "ok, today's strictly a fastball/changeup day." Aspirational thinking on his part, I guess. 

 

With young guys I'm high on, I give them 6 starts and then make a determination. At that point things like weather, luck, defense, etc, tend to balance out to the point where both the numbers and your eyes can give you a decent idea of whether there's something there or not.

 

Anyway, it's going to be similarly cold in Chicago tomorrow, so we'll see how Reynaldo is affected. Certainly more margin for error for him given that his best pitch is a four-seamer rather than a curve. But again, if he can't grip the ball well, expect a lot of walks....

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15 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

Well if you can be near the plate in a cold weather game like today, you'll probably do okay. Case in point: Fulmer, who looked as bad as Giolito in terms of his stuff and missing his spots, but he wasn't hitting guys and when he missed the plate it was by a few inches rather than a foot. Giolito didn't throw a ton of curves, but I question why Castillo even called for them when it was clear his blue-fingered pitcher wasn't able to grip the ball. You would think after he nearly hit one batter in the face, nearly sailed one to the backstop, and bounced a few that Castillo would be like, "ok, today's strictly a fastball/changeup day." Aspirational thinking on his part, I guess. 

 

With young guys I'm high on, I give them 6 starts and then make a determination. At that point things like weather, luck, defense, etc, tend to balance out to the point where both the numbers and your eyes can give you a decent idea of whether there's something there or not.

 

Anyway, it's going to be similarly cold in Chicago tomorrow, so we'll see how Reynaldo is affected. Certainly more margin for error for him given that his best pitch is a four-seamer rather than a curve. But again, if he can't grip the ball well, expect a lot of walks....

Well said.  Sounds like you once played.  So many people fail to realize that the Catcher calls almost all of the pitches and often they don't call great games yet the Pitcher always gets the blame.  Also very true cold weather has extreme affects on control and grip issues for some Pitchers pitches.  

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Didn't get a whiff on the Curve or the Change-Up again. Got 2 Whiffs on the Slider. He now has a total of 2 whiffs in well over 50 breaking balls and off-speed pitches. 

 

Call it a philosophical difference, I don't know why you would hold on to Giolito and wait when there's no sign of a pulse. 

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Yeah I actually used to pitch and catch so I have strong opinions (and back and knee problems!) as a result ;)

 

Castillo may have had an off game, but I think he was just hoping once Giolito got one of those big 1-7 curves over something would click. Who knows. I suspect if Giolito was commanding his fastball better he would've just had him throw those for 5-6 innings with an occasional change thrown in. For what it's worth, Castillo has been pretty good with the young Sox starters so far (especially the Lopez game, where he was mixing speeds masterfully -- or wait, was that Narvaez, I can't remember. Well whoever it was deserves some kudos). 

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14 minutes ago, taobball said:

Didn't get a whiff on the Curve or the Change-Up again. Got 2 Whiffs on the Slider. He now has a total of 2 whiffs in well over 50 breaking balls and off-speed pitches. 

 

Call it a philosophical difference, I don't know why you would hold on to Giolito and wait when there's no sign of a pulse. 

Felt like I might be over reacting by dropping him after today- I drafted him very late in a 12 teamer tbh I hated the pick but I needed an arm and he was there- Reluctantly started him today against DET and I watched a bit of the game was not impressed at all. I also felt like he was teetering on the brink in his first start in KC too - had basically no command for the off speed stuff and virtually no swings and misses. Anyways it just seems to me like he's a long way off from being a diff maker and your post kind of validates the assumption. Like you said earlier I feel like right now he's at best a potential streamer candidate in really, really friendly matchups- not a guy worth burning a roster spot in most re-drafts  

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Right now this guy is cat piss. But I'm holding, the conditions in which this guy has had to pitch were brutal. I'll sit him until the weather warms up and then evaluate from there. Not encouraging to see the same issues  he had the last few years (command), that looked alleviated in ST, are still very much there. But it was in the 20's wind chill in Chicago yesterday, very hard to judge his start in that weather. 

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45 minutes ago, Mickey Donovan said:

Right now this guy is cat piss. But I'm holding, the conditions in which this guy has had to pitch were brutal. I'll sit him until the weather warms up and then evaluate from there. Not encouraging to see the same issues  he had the last few years (command), that looked alleviated in ST, are still very much there. But it was in the 20's wind chill in Chicago yesterday, very hard to judge his start in that weather. 

 

He's at Minnesota next week, so you're gonna be holding & sitting for another week and a half.  At Oakland after that, so probably better weather then.  Absolutely right though, tough draw to start the season.

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11 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

He's at Minnesota next week, so you're gonna be holding & sitting for another week and a half.  At Oakland after that, so probably better weather then.  Absolutely right though, tough draw to start the season.

 

Supposed to be 56 and sunny on the day he starts, so he should be fine. 

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1 hour ago, sleepysock said:

 

Supposed to be 56 and sunny on the day he starts, so he should be fine. 

 

Well, assuming temperature is his biggest flaw. 

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Lol, yeah. I meant just in terms of being able to perform without an unusual variable thrown in. 

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