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parrothead

Lucas Giolito 2018 Outlook

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20 minutes ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

1)  He has elite stuff - STUFF.  He's 23 and he's still learning to pitch.  Steve Stone had a great analysis during the local telecast tonight if anyone caught it.  Going into this game - I don't know what it is now - opponents were batting .203 against him this season.  Which proves the point - he has very good stuff & struggling to locate it as most every young pitcher does on the ML level getting their first 200-300 innings under their belt.

 

2)  His peripherals last year?  In the last two months of the season he had a 2.43 ERA in 40+ innings, ~1.00 WHIP, ~.190 opponents BA.  Yah - those were awfully stellar last year (albeit in a small sample size).

 

He simply cannot locate his pitches right now.  End of story - he'll figure it out & will eventually be an awfully good ML starter.  No clue if that happens this year at any point.

'

Those aren't peripherals, those are his surface level stats. I am referring to his small sample 2017 peripherals which were bad: 4.94 FIP   4.42xFIP .189 BABIP   92LOB%  35.4% Hard Contact Rate and a bad K:BB ratio. They suggest he was getting lucky, just like he managed to do with 2 "quality" starts this season which were some of the worst pitching I have ever seen. Pull them up on rotowire, they were all ranked as "terrible"

 

IDK if you have watched him pitch this year but there is nothing worth locating with, he's not even throwing the curve, his velocity is down, no movement. It's literally all bad. He can locate all he wants like this and get annhiliated

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45 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

'

Those aren't peripherals, those are his surface level stats. I am referring to his small sample 2017 peripherals which were bad: 4.94 FIP   4.42xFIP .189 BABIP   92LOB%  35.4% Hard Contact Rate and a bad K:BB ratio. They suggest he was getting lucky, just like he managed to do with 2 "quality" starts this season which were some of the worst pitching I have ever seen. Pull them up on rotowire, they were all ranked as "terrible"

 

IDK if you have watched him pitch this year but there is nothing worth locating with, he's not even throwing the curve, his velocity is down, no movement. It's literally all bad. He can locate all he wants like this and get annhiliated

 

haha im a sox fan so i hope yer wrong but watching him tonight and his last start yer not far off. they cant keep throwing him out there broken. its gonna completely mess his head up. center stage in the bigs and trying to figure out your mechanics is a bad combo. 

 

his delivery is completely broken.. super jerky without any smooth rhythm. release point is completely whacked and thus he repeatedly throws his money pitch.. curve 10ft from the plate everytime. 

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1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

1)  He has elite stuff - STUFF.  He's 23 and he's still learning to pitch.  Steve Stone had a great analysis during the local telecast tonight if anyone caught it.  Going into this game - I don't know what it is now - opponents were batting .203 against him this season.  Which proves the point - he has very good stuff & struggling to locate it as most every young pitcher does on the ML level getting their first 200-300 innings under their belt.

 

 

Yeah. I don't believe that. Not at all. I've watched him play a lot this year too. This dude looks dreadful and talentless. Most young pitchers don't look dreadful and talentless. 

 

That's not to say he can't turn it around. But right now that's what he looks like: Dreadful and talentless. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah. I don't believe that. Not at all. I've watched him play a lot this year too. This dude looks dreadful and talentless. Most young pitchers don't look dreadful and talentless. 

 

That's not to say he can't turn it around. But right now that's what he looks like: Dreadful and talentless

This. 

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24 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Yeah. I don't believe that. Not at all. I've watched him play a lot this year too. This dude looks dreadful and talentless. Most young pitchers don't look dreadful and talentless. 

 

That's not to say he can't turn it around. But right now that's what he looks like: Dreadful and talentless. 

 

THIS.

 

His stuff from start one has been awful.

 

Like,  "is this guy hurt?" awful.

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Dude has atrocious stuff.  Easily one of the more disappointing hyped up prospects in recent memory.  Looks like back end/swing guy at best.  

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He needs to realize that he is only a bench warmer RP soon to be. AT BEST. He sucks.

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Topping out at 90, where is the 95-97 mph plus he was throwing 2-3 years ago???

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6 hours ago, chud12 said:

Topping out at 90, where is the 95-97 mph plus he was throwing 2-3 years ago???

 

Not uncommon to lose velocity at this age.  Most guys throw their hardest in high school. 

 

Pitchers like Scherzer that throw hard into their 30s are an anomaly.   

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7 hours ago, chud12 said:

Topping out at 90, where is the 95-97 mph plus he was throwing 2-3 years ago???

 

from reports he was hitting 95 again in ST. but from first few starts im seeing mostly 91. he did hit 93 once yesterday. from this and watching him i still think its mechanics. went back to watch his mechanics in A ball where he was at high 90s and the one thing i do see is theres no ‘explosiveness’ in his delivery. somewhere along the line the nats changed his delivery to be more smooth and easy and it broke him. poor guy.. seems to be a good dude so im still pulling for him. and im also a sox fan :)

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4 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

How long until he is RP?

 Probably years, if ever

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53 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 Probably years, if ever

 

The White Sox have an embarrassment of riches in pitching prospects. If they prove better than Gio, he's not sticking in the rotation. By 2020 they could be trotting out Rodon-Kopech-Reynaldo-Cease-Hansen. Five guys with front-end potential. Likely that they move Rodon IMO, so slot in soon-to-be top 40 prospect Dane Dunning instead. I'm betting on these guys over Gio right now.  And then you have fringier guys like Fulmer and Clarkin and Stephens and Guerrero and Flores that look like they may be back-end starters. Who knows where they end up when the dust clears.

 

I've been very high on Gio because he's flashed an incredible repertoire of pitches at a few different points over the last few years, most recently in Spring Training. He seemed like a guy that would be a mid-rotation arm at worst this year unless 1) he completely lost his command, or 2) his velo reverted to 88-91. Well, both of those things happened.

 

As far as sending him down and letting Kopech take his spot, not gonna happen. The White Sox are going to let him fail at the ML level b/c he at least gets to work with Cooper, and they're not going to burn a service year for Kopech by bringing him up in April 2018.

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Got the win yesterday, but the outlook is so poor at this point that people will point straight the the box score and say only 2 strikeouts and 5 hits against the ROYALS.

 

I'll take a little deeper look, why not. In this game Giolito did a few things different:

Threw fewer fastballs

More use of the change up
Went to the curve just as often as the slider

Only walked 2 batters

 

Hopefully he's getting a better feel for his pitches and can build off this start. It wasn't fantastic by any means, but a step in the right direction. I'll be the lonely optimist.

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2 hours ago, Lebanasty said:

Got the win yesterday, but the outlook is so poor at this point that people will point straight the the box score and say only 2 strikeouts and 5 hits against the ROYALS.

 

I'll take a little deeper look, why not. In this game Giolito did a few things different:

Threw fewer fastballs

More use of the change up
Went to the curve just as often as the slider

Only walked 2 batters

 

Hopefully he's getting a better feel for his pitches and can build off this start. It wasn't fantastic by any means, but a step in the right direction. I'll be the lonely optimist.

 

He still looked terrible and is continuing to get lucky, I don't think he is rosterable in any format right now

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27 minutes ago, DJSatane said:

He got lucky in his last start. its bound to happen.

 

I don't dispute this, but his velo was up and he was actually getting his off-speed stuff near the plate on occasion and elicited a few swings and misses. Hence the comment about looking like an actual MLB pitcher for a change. Gives one a glimmer of hope that he's not a completely busted former blue chipper. 

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23 minutes ago, Lebanasty said:

Looks like he got his Ambien Rx got filled. Looked pretty good for 6 innings.

6 innings were enough even with his pitch count was at 76 after 6.

He started to be wild in the 6th inning.

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Will never add him again unless I watch him pitch beforehand. His boxscores have been deceiving as hell. Didn't see this last game. And even then it would take a hell of a lot for me to want to do that to myself again. 

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He looked like a SP1 most of the game. First pitch strikes, few 3-ball counts, dotting the corners all day, lots of whiffs, lots of Ks. Only through a couple meatballs all day and unfortunately they got hit very, very hard (one by Carlos f'n Martinez). Put him on your watchlist for the next 2-3 weeks and evaluate after that. If this was his first start of the season we'd all be talking about a possible breakout. I dropped him for Ryu 2 starts ago and have no regrets, but it's not inconceivable that he turns into the top-40 pitcher many thought he'd be in March. If he's finally found his release point, he'll be a solid streamer at the very least the rest of the way.

 

Velo was also at 91-94 rather than 89-91, which made a huge difference, particularly with the added command. The 90 mph high fastball on 2-2 is not nearly as good a pitch as it's 94 mph brother. 

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24 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

He looked like a SP1 most of the game. First pitch strikes, few 3-ball counts, dotting the corners all day, lots of whiffs, lots of Ks. Only through a couple meatballs all day and unfortunately they got hit very, very hard (one by Carlos f'n Martinez). Put him on your watchlist for the next 2-3 weeks and evaluate after that. If this was his first start of the season we'd all be talking about a possible breakout. I dropped him for Ryu 2 starts ago and have no regrets, but it's not inconceivable that he turns into the top-40 pitcher many thought he'd be in March. If he's finally found his release point, he'll be a solid streamer at the very least the rest of the way.

 

Velo was also at 91-94 rather than 89-91, which made a huge difference, particularly with the added command. The 90 mph high fastball on 2-2 is not nearly as good a pitch as it's 94 mph brother. 

 

im a chisox fan so this gives me hope. his carnage a few starts ago his change looks actually decent when he gets it near the plate. if he gets his plusplus curve back with this change and good control on a 93mph fb he could be a sp2 or 3. so x’ng my fingers

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1 hour ago, sleepysock said:

He looked like a SP1 most of the game. First pitch strikes, few 3-ball counts, dotting the corners all day, lots of whiffs, lots of Ks. Only through a couple meatballs all day and unfortunately they got hit very, very hard (one by Carlos f'n Martinez). Put him on your watchlist for the next 2-3 weeks and evaluate after that. If this was his first start of the season we'd all be talking about a possible breakout. I dropped him for Ryu 2 starts ago and have no regrets, but it's not inconceivable that he turns into the top-40 pitcher many thought he'd be in March. If he's finally found his release point, he'll be a solid streamer at the very least the rest of the way.

 

Velo was also at 91-94 rather than 89-91, which made a huge difference, particularly with the added command. The 90 mph high fastball on 2-2 is not nearly as good a pitch as it's 94 mph brother. 

 

Good lowdown, thanks. He looked like straight damaged goods prior. Will monitor

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