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Carlos Correa 2018 Outlook

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On 5/25/2018 at 7:13 AM, sngehl01 said:

What you posted may help explain why he's hitting like he is, but they are also part of a small sample either. One week of playing very strong baseball can push those #'s past where they were last year. If you are comparing his #'s to where they were last year I'm sure they are down across the board. The guy was electric last season. 


Citing how his #'s changed over the course of a week at this point last season is meaningful. Especially when owners think he's been such a disappointment. I would say calling him a big disappointment is an over reaction. Paul Goldschmidt? Big disappointment. Anthony Rizzo? Big disappointment. Those guys could very well be costing you your league. Guys like Correa, Bryant, even Votto may not be performing at the level you'd expect, but 1 big week from any would alleviate any concerns at this point in the season. 

Goldy and Rizzo say yo!

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6 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

What happened to him

Had soreness on his side.  After Reyes everyone is antsy, understandably so.

 

ETA this occurred in his final at bat Wednesday

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I'm shocked but pleased. Hopefully he starts hitting baseballs now.

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On 5/18/2018 at 5:20 PM, Fiveohnine said:

I don't think I'll ever understand why this guy gets drafted ahead of Lindor every single year.

 

On 5/18/2018 at 6:16 PM, Fiveohnine said:

^Every year that's what everyone says. And every year Lindor is better.

 

15 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

2btf65.jpg

 

Is there a point to this, other than an "I told you so" referencing draft positions from 3+ months ago?  My league's Player Rater says Machado and Segura have been better SS' so far this year than Lindor, can we make some memes about how we should have drafted Segura instead?

 

There's also the fact that on a per-game/PA basis Correa was much better than Lindor in 2017, and very arguably was better in 2015 and 2016.  If you pro-rate Correa's 2017 from 481 PA out to the 723 PA that Lindor had, Correa hit at a 36 HR -  123 R - 126 RBI pace, to Lindor's 33 HR - 99 R - 89 RBI.  Also a batting average that was .42 points higher than Lindor's.  

 

2015 and 2016 combined Correa hit 15 more HR and 35 more RBI, compared to Lindor's 21 more R and 4 more SB.  Lindor's AVG was about .30 points higher, but OBP basically a wash.  Pretty easy to make arguments for each but at the end of the day it's pretty neck and neck.

 

I know, in before "you can't just prorate Correa's numbers" and "he's always injured!", but we're talking a differential of 475 games for Lindor to 421 for Correa in the same time period.  I don't think anyone that preferred Lindor is stupid, but it's very easy to see why someone would take Correa's superior per-game numbers from 2017 and hope for health over Lindor.

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7 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Is there a point to this, other than an "I told you so" referencing draft positions from 3+ months ago?

 

Actually, you'd probably have to dig through Correa's 2016 and 2017 threads to find my I told you so posts. My point was pretty simple: Correa is way overrated compared to Lindor, who has been a better SS than Correa for a long time now. Feel free to address that point, or just make up something else and put it in quotes like you did above.

 

And that's only talking offense. Factor in defense, which is just as important at SS if not moreso, and it's not even close. Correa can't even hold a candle to Lindor in that case.

 

7 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

My league's Player Rater says Machado and Segura have been better SS' so far this year than Lindor, can we make some memes about how we should have drafted Segura instead?

 

The reason I and many others use Lindor as a comparison is because they are both basically the same age (both happen to be from PR and came up to the majors around the same time as well). I'm not sure why you seem to think it somehow bolsters your argument to point out Machado and Segura (who I actually own in roto) are also better at SS than Correa. But ok.

 

As for the rest, mostly tldr. I mean, I really wouldn't care if you chose to call me "stupid" for preferring Lindor to Correa. So long as Lindor is better, you can call me whatever you want to.

 

I doubt even your longwinded posts can keep Correa's hype train going full speed for much longer. I hope they can though. Getting Lindor for a cheaper price is always nice.

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11 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Factor in defense, which is just as important at SS if not moreso, and it's not even close. Correa can't even hold a candle to Lindor in that case.

Maybe the defensive stats bear that out, I don't know, but I've watched quite a bit of Correa this year and at least by the eye test his defense looks unreal.  

 

Lotta good that does in fantasy I know but I had to stem the beating just a bit lol.  No doubt Lindor has smoked him offensively thusfar.

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2 minutes ago, AJdude said:

Maybe the defensive stats bear that out, I don't know, but I've watched quite a bit of Correa this year and at least by the eye test his defense looks unreal.  

 

Lotta good that does in fantasy I know but I had to stem the beating just a bit lol.  No doubt Lindor has smoked him offensively thusfar.

 

They do.

 

I mean anyone playing SS in the major leagues is going to be an elite athlete. But yeah. They do.

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31 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Out of the lineup again, any thoughts on when he gets back in there? Tomorrow potentially?

 

Gee I hope so. Who’s going to step up for my team and strike out 3 times and go Ofer while their team scores 10 runs? God forbid I miss that production 

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3 minutes ago, Grace17 said:

 

Gee I hope so. Who’s going to step up for my team and strike out 3 times and go Ofer while their team scores 10 runs? God forbid I miss that production 

 

Good grief. Even underperforming, he's a top 10 SS. It's one thing to be disappointed in his production thus far...it's something else entirely to act like Correa is hurting your team. 

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12 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Good grief. Even underperforming, he's a top 10 SS. It's one thing to be disappointed in his production thus far...it's something else entirely to act like Correa is hurting your team. 

 

Actually in my format he's the 11th ranked SS. Ranked below Crawford and the .288 Obp Javier Baez.  I'm in a K league. He has more Ks than Baez. BAEZ! And he has hurt my team relative to his price.

 

What is it with this board and this guy? He's been a disappoinment,  it is ok to state this 

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I get the feeling people were penciling in 40 HR. If you expected that you have only yourself to blame. 

 

Hes still a monster with monster upside. And the Houston lineup hasn’t gotten hot yet

 

think about that

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17 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Good grief. Even underperforming, he's a top 10 SS. It's one thing to be disappointed in his production thus far...it's something else entirely to act like Correa is hurting your team. 

 

Over the last 28 days he's .212/.316/.412. There's no acting 

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15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Good grief. Even underperforming, he's a top 10 SS. It's one thing to be disappointed in his production thus far...it's something else entirely to act like Correa is hurting your team. 

He's got a lot of upside and will almost certainly get hot along with the rest of his team and finally go on a tear.

 

But when we have these discussions about costly players like Correa, I don't think "He's Top 10" is exactly going to move anyone who feels like he's been a huge disappointment or even a waste. His ADP was around 11th overall, and he's being outperformed by some shortstops that were drafted dozens of places later. I still like my share of Correa, but I can see why someone would feel like "he's hurting their team" by virtue of having not spent that high pick on someone more productive. 

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11 minutes ago, Philoumenos said:

He's got a lot of upside and will almost certainly get hot along with the rest of his team and finally go on a tear.

 

But when we have these discussions about costly players like Correa, I don't think "He's Top 10" is exactly going to move anyone who feels like he's been a huge disappointment or even a waste. His ADP was around 11th overall, and he's being outperformed by some shortstops that were drafted dozens of places later. I still like my share of Correa, but I can see why someone would feel like "he's hurting their team" by virtue of having not spent that high pick on someone more productive. 

 

Well said. Exactly my thinking. His ROI has been lackluster to this point. I've had this guy since before he came up. My expectations for a guy who is supposed to be in the MVP discussion are a little more that top 10 SS (Which he currently is not). I really need him to breakout soon 

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Once he stopped stealing bags a couple years ago I was really kinda meh about his fantasy upside, at least in traditional formats. To me, he's more of a 2nd/3rd rounder going forward than a guy who should be in top 10 discussion.

 

His K% this season has gone way up as has his chase rate. His average exit velocity is down nearly 1.5 MPH and his xWOBA/BABIP don't indicate he's suffered any bad luck. I'm not particularly worried about him, but I don't see him turning into a top-10 player in the 2H of the season, either. Think he'll be a top-5 SS and top-50 overall, but wouldn't expect much more than that personally.

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1 hour ago, Grace17 said:

 

Well said. Exactly my thinking. His ROI has been lackluster to this point. I've had this guy since before he came up. My expectations for a guy who is supposed to be in the MVP discussion are a little more that top 10 SS (Which he currently is not). I really need him to breakout soon 

 

Actually, he currently is...in my format. Let's see where he finishes the season. Crying about his performance through June 7 is ridiculous. Is he disappointing so far? Sure, but I also understand it's a long season, and in his disappointing season to this point he's still hitting .264-36-10-39-2. If/when he gets hot, he's going to shoot back up the SS rankings. 

 

Sounds to me like guys who vastly overrated Correa and are now ticked that he's not returning first round value...where he shouldn't have been picked to start with, not when you factor in injury risk and lack of steals. 

 

To be fair, I understand the angst if it's coming from h2h guys. As a 5x5 roto guy, I'm not worried or upset or even all that disappointed. Like I said, long season. 

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1 hour ago, Junkie Cosmonaut said:

 

Over the last 28 days he's .212/.316/.412. There's no acting 

 

Depends on format. In my 5x5 roto league, he's not hurting my team. 

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2 hours ago, Grace17 said:

 

Actually in my format he's the 11th ranked SS. Ranked below Crawford and the .288 Obp Javier Baez.  I'm in a K league. He has more Ks than Baez. BAEZ! And he has hurt my team relative to his price.

 

What is it with this board and this guy? He's been a disappoinment,  it is ok to state this 

 

What's with this board?? I'm no Correa lover. I just know what I expect from him, and I know he's well within reach of that season-ending line. I could also ask "what's with this board" when it comes to owners freaking out. It's not like he's hitting .220-20-6-25-0.

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2 hours ago, Grace17 said:

 

Well said. Exactly my thinking. His ROI has been lackluster to this point. I've had this guy since before he came up. My expectations for a guy who is supposed to be in the MVP discussion are a little more that top 10 SS (Which he currently is not). I really need him to breakout soon 

Haven't really followed Correa this year but he has been in MVP discussions even while slumping? Usually, those are players doing well better than what I am reading here.

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25 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Depends on format. In my 5x5 roto league, he's not hurting my team. 

This again goes right back to the ADP/ROI point I made earlier. 

 

He hit .192/.292/.394 in May with an 87 wRC+. Among SS, that puts him around #20 for the month in terms of production. Sure, that kind of SS production isn't "hurting" you in the way that a Nick Ahmed or Alcides Escobar would actually be hurting you.

 

But it's also not what you drafted, and it's not what you paid for, and again it seems pretty easy to me to see why people are frustrated even if his production isn't outright "hurting" them. He'll got hot, but it better come sooner rather than later.

10 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Haven't really followed Correa this year but he has been in MVP discussions even while slumping? Usually, those are players doing well better than what I am reading here.

Correa was pretty regularly cited pre-season as one of HOU's three possible MVP candidates: him, Altuve and Springer.

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