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Carlos Correa 2018 Outlook

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 NOBODY has him in the MVP discussion.

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2 hours ago, Philoumenos said:

This again goes right back to the ADP/ROI point I made earlier. 

 

He hit .192/.292/.394 in May with an 87 wRC+. Among SS, that puts him around #20 for the month in terms of production. Sure, that kind of SS production isn't "hurting" you in the way that a Nick Ahmed or Alcides Escobar would actually be hurting you.

 

But it's also not what you drafted, and it's not what you paid for, and again it seems pretty easy to me to see why people are frustrated even if his production isn't outright "hurting" them. He'll got hot, but it better come sooner rather than later.

 

I guess my perspective is that with a season-long roto league, it doesn't "hurt" my team because I expect him to end up with Correa-esque stats by the end of the season. Does it hurt in the short term? Yeah I guess it does. But with a longterm perspective, my anticipation is that by the end of the season, his numbers will come back to norm, and it will not have hurt me over the long haul of the season. 

 

Now, if he ends the season projected as he is now (.265-90-25-100-5), then yeah I'd say he's had a disappointing season. But again, I also didn't invest in him as a top 6 pick nor did I think he was a first round guy. I guess I'm in the minority on that, but I did draft him for the first time ever in a keeper league this spring (his keeper status ran out).

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25 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Out of the lineup and not participating in baseball activities, SMH

No structural damage, so that's a good thing. Probably just being safe and giving him a breather at the same time

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I've seen on the Twitter machine that he took swings in the cage over the weekend in Arlington and he was also on the field doing drills on Sunday. From a couple of sources (not sure of credibility tbh) it sounds like a return to the lineup tonight is possible. 

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On June 8, 2018 at 10:09 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

I guess my perspective is that with a season-long roto league, it doesn't "hurt" my team because I expect him to end up with Correa-esque stats by the end of the season. Does it hurt in the short term? Yeah I guess it does. But with a longterm perspective, my anticipation is that by the end of the season, his numbers will come back to norm, and it will not have hurt me over the long haul of the season. 

 

Now, if he ends the season projected as he is now (.265-90-25-100-5), then yeah I'd say he's had a disappointing season. But again, I also didn't invest in him as a top 6 pick nor did I think he was a first round guy. I guess I'm in the minority on that, but I did draft him for the first time ever in a keeper league this spring (his keeper status ran out).

 

When your 2nd round pick underperforms and your 1st pick (Joey Votto) does nothing but walk, you tend to get hopelessly buried in H2H. I am in a deep hole I can't get out of and it is in part due to the lack of production from guys like Correa. He could win the MVP from here on out and it wouldn't matter to my team. So, yeah, he's a disappointment. Format matters.  Good luck with him, maybe one of these years he will stay healthy and put-up Lindor like numbers.

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In fantasy baseball more than any of the other sports, a successful 1st/2nd/3rd/4th round pick is as much about avoiding land mines (guys who get injured for long parts of the season, or guys whose skills decline/erode to the point of becoming part time players in some cases) that you have to avoid at all costs ... 

 

Correa having a ho hum .270 / 85 / 25 / 95 / 5 (top ~30 overall ranking) type of season at SS is not going to hurt your chances of winning a championship. That's a successful 2nd round pick. You avoided a land mine. No, that line is NOT going to provide insta-erections for Correa owners or anything .. but it's a solid pick that keeps you in contention so long as the other 20+ picks were decent and you handle the rest of the management of your fantasy team well. 

 

THIS is a concept that new players in fantasy baseball have an extremely hard time wrapping their mind around

 

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1 hour ago, Grace17 said:

 

When your 2nd round pick underperforms and your 1st pick (Joey Votto) does nothing but walk, you tend to get hopelessly buried in H2H. I am in a deep hole I can't get out of and it is in part due to the lack of production from guys like Correa. He could win the MVP from here on out and it wouldn't matter to my team. So, yeah, he's a disappointment. Format matters.  Good luck with him, maybe one of these years he will stay healthy and put-up Lindor like numbers.

 

I'm not worried about him putting up Lindor-like numbers, lol. I know who Correa is, and I don't find the need to compare him to others. If Lindor had been there when I drafted Correa, I probably would have drafted Lindor...primarily because of SBs. But I'm happy with Correa as my SS. I feel confident that .268 BA is going to get to close to .300 or over. He's already scoring runs and driving in runs at a good clip. So I'm satisfied. 

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On 6/8/2018 at 4:19 PM, Fiveohnine said:

 

Actually, you'd probably have to dig through Correa's 2016 and 2017 threads to find my I told you so posts. My point was pretty simple: Correa is way overrated compared to Lindor, who has been a better SS than Correa for a long time now. Feel free to address that point, or just make up something else and put it in quotes like you did above.

 

And that's only talking offense. Factor in defense, which is just as important at SS if not moreso, and it's not even close. Correa can't even hold a candle to Lindor in that case.

 

 

The reason I and many others use Lindor as a comparison is because they are both basically the same age (both happen to be from PR and came up to the majors around the same time as well). I'm not sure why you seem to think it somehow bolsters your argument to point out Machado and Segura (who I actually own in roto) are also better at SS than Correa. But ok.

 

As for the rest, mostly tldr. I mean, I really wouldn't care if you chose to call me "stupid" for preferring Lindor to Correa. So long as Lindor is better, you can call me whatever you want to.

 

I doubt even your longwinded posts can keep Correa's hype train going full speed for much longer. I hope they can though. Getting Lindor for a cheaper price is always nice.

 

Aren't we on a fantasy baseball forum?  What does defense have to do with this discussion?  Are you just generally stating in real life you'd rather own Lindor than Correa?  That's kind of a different discussion altogether.  Maybe we can discuss who has the better character next, or who makes funnier jokes, or who is more charitable.  

 

I'll keep it simple since you seemed to miss or ignore the point in my last post - Correa has been better over his career in terms of fantasy-relevant numbers.  I don't care about their defense, I don't care about how you perceive the public's perception of each of them, what their ratings are on X-Box, etc.  They were both borderline 1st/2nd round picks in my leagues, very similar draft value (with Correa going slightly higher), and the fantasy-relevant stats like HR, RBI, R, etc give a slight overall nod to Correa.  

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it's easy to forget that correa is still just 23 years old and is still on the steepest upward slope of the age curve

 

so long as he's healthy / getting plate appearances everyday he can easily get white hot and start filling up the stat sheet like few others.

 

nobody would be shocked if correa finished with 20+ HR, 70+ RBI, and a .300+ BA with a handful of SB the rest of the way ... but if that type of 'burst' production doesn't come .. just a typical correa finish would be fine (where he hits to his career averages)

 

it's very easy to overlook how rare this combination of high floor/high ceiling is (usually something you only find in the first several picks of the 1st round in the draft) 

 

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On 6/8/2018 at 8:39 AM, handyandy86 said:

My league's Player Rater says Machado and Segura have been better SS' so far this year than Lindor, can we make some memes about how we should have drafted Segura instead?

 

This post was a whole two weeks ago. We probably need an update on the "player rater." ;)

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35 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

This post was a whole two weeks ago. We probably need an update on the "player rater." ;)

 

Over here he's ranked 10th,  last week didn't help. Though he has moved ahead of Brandon Crawford. So he's got that going for him..

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^I was quoting him about Lindor, who happens to be the top SS on the standard scoring  player rater atm. 

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This guy will hopefully have a monster 2nd half.  Lord knows I need him to.

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People comping him negatively vs. Javy Baez this year... I guess it depends on the type of league you're in.  But from my view Baez stats this year are nothing to scoff at, so I don't see what the big deal is there. Baez is just having a really good year so far.  Trea Turner is also ranked behind him in my league, and he was ranked #4 (or maybe it was 6?) OVERALL in Yahoo's preseason rankings.  I don't think the ROI on Correa so far is as bad as some folks are making it out to be.

 

Approaching the halfway point Correa is on pace for about a 28 HR 100 RBI season... and he hasn't even gone on a hot streak yet like we've seen him do in the past.  Barring injury he is probably going to be a top 5 SS  at worst by season's end.  Top-tier talent usually shows out over the long haul (despite what those unsourced unnamed scouts may have said about his hitting when he was drafted).

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Guy is 23 and on pace for a top 5 SS season???  He is going to have a 35hr/120rbi season soon. When?  Who knows

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Not in the lineup today. guessing just a day of rest. 

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Don’t know why my post stating yahoo has him DTD was removed but Yahoo has him DTD 

 

Any word? 

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4 minutes ago, Grace17 said:

Don’t know why my post stating yahoo has him DTD was removed but Yahoo has him DTD 

 

Any word? 

 

What's even more weird is Yahoo says he's DTD but in the blurb they posted it says it's just a day of rest.

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Just now, BostonCajun said:

 

What's even more weird is Yahoo says he's DTD but in the blurb they posted it says it's just a day of rest.

They always do that randomly.

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11 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

What's even more weird is Yahoo says he's DTD but in the blurb they posted it says it's just a day of rest.

 

Read that also, don’t know which one to believe. Though I thought a day off on a random Tuesday was kind of weird 

 

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10 minutes ago, Magoo said:

They always do that randomly.

 

This is correct - unless it's an obvious day to rest a player (day game after night game, game after a long extra inning game, Sunday, etc.), I always try to research before accepting the blurb of "it's just a day of rest".

 

And in this case they are wrong - here's the real reason (and hopefully it's minor):

 

 

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I live in Houston and get to watch the Astros.  I was excited to get Correa on my fantasy team.  When I watch Springer, Bregman, Gurriel, Gattis bat, they all go up there ready to hit.  They like to swing at first pitches and seem to be aggressive.  When I watch Correa come up to bat, he seems to be boring.  He will hardly ever swing at the first 3 pitches.  He will watch, watch, watch, watch.  Then once when he gets 2 strikes.  Then he swings.  His approach seems to be different this year compared to last year.  I understand being patient.  But geez,  is there such a thing as being too patient.  Seems like he's looking to walk every plate appearance.  The best pitch is usually the first pitch and he never swings at it.  Am I missing something here, maybe you'll can give me a better understanding about his approach at the plate.. 

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