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Carlos Correa 2018 Outlook

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25 minutes ago, steve9347 said:

Feel free to perform like even a top 10 SS sometime soon, Carlos.

 

This again...He's not losing you your league is he? So maybe he's not living up to the insane expectations most people had for him but he is still a borderline top 25 offensive fantasy player and that's after missing some time. If that's hurting you then you did poorly in the rest of your draft.

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5 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

This again...He's not losing you your league is he? So maybe he's not living up to the insane expectations most people had for him but he is still a borderline top 25 offensive fantasy player and that's after missing some time. If that's hurting you then you did poorly in the rest of your draft.

 

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4 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

This again...He's not losing you your league is he? So maybe he's not living up to the insane expectations most people had for him but he is still a borderline top 25 offensive fantasy player and that's after missing some time. If that's hurting you then you did poorly in the rest of your draft.

 

Borderline top 25?

 

Carlos Correa is ranked 53rd among hitters on the standard scoring player rater. 84th overall.

Edited by Fiveohnine
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4 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Borderline top 25?

 

Carlos Correa is ranked 53rd among hitters on the standard scoring player rater. 84th overall.

 

This is what I had typed up, but got sidetracked 

 

 

How is he a borderline top 25 offensive fantasy player?

 

In my points league he's like 42nd over all and 8th at SS. 

 

In 6 cats he ranks, emphasis on the word 'ranks' 

 

BA - 79th

OBP - 56th

HR - t47th 

R - t-28th

RBI - t-23rd

SB - t-103rd

 

No one drafted him to be 2nd-3rd tier at his position. Even if an owner had an above average draft, he's probably the biggest influence when it comes to a team's success or failure

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Correa is ranked 62nd overall in standard 5x5 formats. That is without an adjustment for position scarcity (guys who hit like a stud OF or 1B are really hard to find at SS for example). 

 

3 of 6 months into the season he's under performing his 'baseline' at the moment .. but there's still a lot  of season left. Think 80 more games batting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball with a career .285/.360/.485 (wrc+ 135) line. 

 

If Correa being a few HR, hits, and RBI off pace 3 months into the season is the biggest problem your fantasy team is dealing with at the moment, then you are likely positioned extremely well in your league/and well on your way to winning the championship.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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1 hour ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Borderline top 25?

 

Carlos Correa is ranked 53rd among hitters on the standard scoring player rater. 84th overall.

 

Sorry I play OBP instead of average and sometimes forget about the average based rankings. In my OBP league he is the 47th overall ranked player, 29th ranked offensive player and 8th ranked SS. Yeah I didn't want him to be nor expect him to be the 8th ranked SS when I drafted him but my point was he's not really hurting anyone's team as his stats are still really good. 

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57 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

If Correa being a few HR, hits, and RBI off pace 3 months into the season is the biggest problem your fantasy team is dealing with at the moment, then you are likely positioned extremely well in your league/and well on your way to winning the championship.

 

 

Well, that's kinda silly because you don't draft someone at Correa's ADP to be your "biggest problem" Or even a small problem for that matter. You draft a player that high to be one of -the best guys on your team-.

 

When I said he's the 53rd hitter and 84th overall standard scoring, I was citing ESPN's player rater, which is purely mathematical. I mean, you can argue that math. But at least it's not based on some guy's random opinion.

Edited by Fiveohnine

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If he had 10 SB's, half the griping in this thread would go away....but for some reason he is not running and it's aggravating us!

 

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41 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Well, that's kinda silly because you don't draft someone at Correa's ADP to be your "biggest problem" Or even a small problem for that matter. You draft a player that high to be one of -the best guys on your team-.

 

When I said he's the 53rd hitter and 84th overall standard scoring, I was citing ESPN's player rater, which is purely mathematical. I mean, you can argue that math. But at least it's not based on some guy's random opinion.

 

Same convo about Paul Goldschmidt a couple of weeks ago. Rizzo, Bryant, Trea, Stanton, Arenado 2 weeks ago, Votto, Hoskins, Bellinger, Altuve, a lot of guys were underperforming early on. These are guys who were drafted in the top 10/20/25. Plenty have been relative disappointments. Looking at Goldy/Altuve/Arenado/Bellinger show you just how much a hot week or two can turn around things fast. 

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^the fact that anyone would even consider comparing this guy to Goldy is proof of how overrated Correa has been for the last couple years. Like I said earlier, Lindor (let alone Goldy) has been clearly better for a long time and was still drafted behind Correa. 

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12 minutes ago, Dark One said:

To the DL with "just a day of rest".

get used to it with Astros.  They are going for the big prize and are going to baby all their players as they lock up this division super early.

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8 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Correa is ranked 62nd overall in standard 5x5 formats. That is without an adjustment for position scarcity (guys who hit like a stud OF or 1B are really hard to find at SS for example). 

 

3 of 6 months into the season he's under performing his 'baseline' at the moment .. but there's still a lot  of season left. Think 80 more games batting in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball with a career .285/.360/.485 (wrc+ 135) line. 

 

If Correa being a few HR, hits, and RBI off pace 3 months into the season is the biggest problem your fantasy team is dealing with at the moment, then you are likely positioned extremely well in your league/and well on your way to winning the championship.

 

You clearly don’t understand 

 

a- how great the SS position has been this year

b- how awful the 1B position has been this year. 

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14 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

^the fact that anyone would even consider comparing this guy to Goldy is proof of how overrated Correa has been for the last couple years. Like I said earlier, Lindor (let alone Goldy) has been clearly better for a long time and was still drafted behind Correa. 

 

At what point is anything I said comparing Correa to Goldschmidt in terms of production? 

What I compared was how owners were crapping on their production date to a certain point in the season, and those concerns were alleviated in relatively short order. 

Is correa overrated? I guess it depends. He's not overrated by orders of magnitude. No, he shouldn't be drafted in the top 10. Top 20? Probably so. 

 

I'm not sure what "clearly better for a long time" means in reference to Lindor vs. Correa. 

 

2016 Lindor/2016 Correa

158 games, 99 R, 30 2B, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 19 SB, .301/.358/.435

152 games, 76 R, 36 2B, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 13 SB, .274/.361/.451

 

2017 Lindor/2017 Correa

159 games, 99 R, 44 2B, 33 HR, 89 RBI, 15 SB, .273/.337/.505

109 games, 82 R, 25 2B, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .315/.391/.550

 

Even their 162 game career averages are pretty close. 

 

Lindor

103 R, 39 2B, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 18 SB, .292/.351/.485

Correa

96 R, 37 2B, 29 HR, 111 RBI, 12 SB, .285/.363/.495

 

Lindor didn't rocket up the draft charts because before last season he was more very good than great. Then in 2017 he explodes for 33 HR but the BA dropped off 30 points from his career average. Most people probably wanted a "prove it" year from Lindor to decide whether he's more like the 2016 guy (who wasn't even close to 20 HR) or the 2017 guy (that was all of a sudden a slugger in a year HR's were way up). 

 

People also noticed that Correa was easily outpacing Lindor until getting hurt. Correa continued it in the postseason hitting .288 with 5 HR and slugging ~.570. 

 

After his #'s last year in a season shortened by 50 games + how he looked once he returned from injury + how he did in the postseason + the fact he was going to be hitting in the middle of the best lineup in baseball, you're really surprised that people drafted Correa over Lindor? This season may well change things. There's half a season left to play, but as of now I full believe Lindor should head into 2019 with a higher ADP. I do not think that was the case coming into this season. 

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On 6/28/2018 at 3:32 PM, BostonCajun said:

 

Sorry I play OBP instead of average and sometimes forget about the average based rankings. In my OBP league he is the 47th overall ranked player, 29th ranked offensive player and 8th ranked SS. Yeah I didn't want him to be nor expect him to be the 8th ranked SS when I drafted him but my point was he's not really hurting anyone's team as his stats are still really good. 

So why did you call him a top 25 player then 

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2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

So why did you call him a top 25 player then 

I thought my last post explained pretty well why I had him ranked as a “borderline top 25 offensive player.” Nowhere did I say he was top 25 overall and again I explained in my post you quoted that it was based off of the rankings in my OBP league. 

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On 6/29/2018 at 7:44 AM, sngehl01 said:

 

At what point is anything I said comparing Correa to Goldschmidt in terms of production? 

What I compared was how owners were crapping on their production date to a certain point in the season, and those concerns were alleviated in relatively short order. 

Is correa overrated? I guess it depends. He's not overrated by orders of magnitude. No, he shouldn't be drafted in the top 10. Top 20? Probably so. 

 

I'm not sure what "clearly better for a long time" means in reference to Lindor vs. Correa. 

 

2016 Lindor/2016 Correa

158 games, 99 R, 30 2B, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 19 SB, .301/.358/.435

152 games, 76 R, 36 2B, 20 HR, 96 RBI, 13 SB, .274/.361/.451

 

2017 Lindor/2017 Correa

159 games, 99 R, 44 2B, 33 HR, 89 RBI, 15 SB, .273/.337/.505

109 games, 82 R, 25 2B, 24 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .315/.391/.550

 

Even their 162 game career averages are pretty close. 

 

Lindor

103 R, 39 2B, 26 HR, 86 RBI, 18 SB, .292/.351/.485

Correa

96 R, 37 2B, 29 HR, 111 RBI, 12 SB, .285/.363/.495

 

Lindor didn't rocket up the draft charts because before last season he was more very good than great. Then in 2017 he explodes for 33 HR but the BA dropped off 30 points from his career average. Most people probably wanted a "prove it" year from Lindor to decide whether he's more like the 2016 guy (who wasn't even close to 20 HR) or the 2017 guy (that was all of a sudden a slugger in a year HR's were way up). 

 

People also noticed that Correa was easily outpacing Lindor until getting hurt. Correa continued it in the postseason hitting .288 with 5 HR and slugging ~.570. 

 

After his #'s last year in a season shortened by 50 games + how he looked once he returned from injury + how he did in the postseason + the fact he was going to be hitting in the middle of the best lineup in baseball, you're really surprised that people drafted Correa over Lindor? This season may well change things. There's half a season left to play, but as of now I full believe Lindor should head into 2019 with a higher ADP. I do not think that was the case coming into this season. 

I agree with the tenor of this post. While Lindor was fantastic last year, Correa looked like one of the five best hitters in baseball before hitting the DL. He was obviously great in the postseason, and is hitting behind some true studs. I think it was reasonable for folks to give Correa the edge for those reasons.

 

However, while an argument could always be made for Franky based on his consistent batting average, runs scored, and (most importantly) steals, he’s developed true 35+ HR power. While keeping his average. Dude’s a superstar and probably a top 10 fantasy option moving forward.

 

It’s important to remember, though, that Correa is a year younger than Lindor and still growing. He’s shown signs of greatness at a very young age, as recently as May, and I believe could eventually settle into the top 12 range should he find consistency/health (which I believe he will). The disappearance of his running will hold him back, but in that lineup, every other one of his stats will be well accounted for.

 

Lindor will deservedly have a higher ADP next year, and I think the debate between these two guys is settled. But that doesn’t mean Correa sucks or doesn’t have the talent to improve his line this year. I’d still be happy to take Correa just about anywhere in the second round while hoping to catch him the season he puts it all together. Should he not, at least his floor isn’t terrible. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

Do you think he opens the second half on the DL?

 

Everything I've read seems to indicate it could be possible. They want him to get some rehab games in before they bring him back.

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