Arrowhead

Jose Altuve 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Arrowhead said:

How's this studs 2018 season going to be?

 

Studly?

 

Six straight years of 30+ SB, and the speed should still be there for at least a couple more years.  I don't see him pulling a Machado and giving up on that part of his game.  Five straight years over 150 games played.  A .334 average over the past four seasons.  Power doesn't appear to be a mirage.  What's not to love?

 

He'll be consensus #2 overall, but he's going to go #1 in quite a few 2018 drafts, and I'd at least be tempted to do the same in some 3 OF leagues because of 2B scarcity.  It's easier to field a competitive outfield with mid-round picks than it is to make up the difference between Altuve and someone in the tier of 2B you'd be ending up with when drafting first overall.

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I liked the distinction made by @tonycpsu between 3 and 5 OF leagues.  I think I'd only consider Altuve #1 in a really deep 3 OF league, and I don't play in any.  In 3 OF leagues (which may be default on yahoo I think), you can get ridiculous production from outfielders you pick after 150 or even 200, or the waiver wire.  It's almost not fun to play in such leagues. When you're drafting they just never seem to get picked after a certain point and you have your pick of outfielders. 

 

I can't even confidently predict Altuve will have more steals that Trout next year, so what's the point (in all other leagues).  But outside of Trout, he's the no brainer next best hitter for standard category leagues.  He's seemingly been around forever and he's only 27, he's guy at least a few elite production years left. You have to love how safe and elite a player like Jose Altuve is in fantasy.

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Depth Charts projection (Steamer with an adjustment made for playing time) has him at: 

 

651 PA, .310 BA, 18 HR, 24 SB, 93 R, 84 RBI 

 

Trout is still in another tier altogether. 

 

Altuve is not as safe as one might think. The SB age curve is much steeper with much shorter peak. Banking on a guy who makes up most of his value in BA & SB is a recipe for disaster. Those are two of the most volatile stats in fantasy. I'd take guys like Arenado & Goldschmidt over Altuve -- guys who can slug over .500 in their sleep and produce a lot of roto value even if they have poor BA luck and don't run much.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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Keeping him for $60 without hesitation...He's that damn good...

Edited by Zombies

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23 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Depth Charts projection (Steamer with an adjustment made for playing time) has him at: 

 

651 PA, .310 BA, 18 HR, 24 SB, 93 R, 84 RBI 

 

Trout is still in another tier altogether. 

 

Altuve is not as safe as one might think. The SB age curve is much steeper with much shorter peak. Banking on a guy who makes up most of his value in BA & SB is a recipe for disaster. Those are two of the most volatile stats in fantasy. I'd take guys like Arenado & Goldschmidt over Altuve -- guys who can slug over .500 in their sleep and produce a lot of roto value even if they have poor BA luck and don't run much.

 

 

I don't like those projections.

 

They have him at his lowest BABIP since 2013 and his homers going down in his age 27 season?  I don't see why either one of these things would happen baring injury, especially if they continue to use the bouncy balls that have been used the last year and a half.

 

Granted, his .370 BABIP last year was way high, but he is at .339 for his career and I don't see any reason he won't be at or above that career mark given his age and progression.  Yes, I know that it fluctuates and anything can happen, but you are talking about a fast guy that puts the ball in play and uses all parts of the field. 

 

Also, I don't see why the steals are going away right now either at age 27.  He was 32 for 38 last season (84%).  If you are above 73%, you are doing well and should probably be running more.  I think 30 is a safe bet again next season, especially coming off of an 84% success rate.

 

93 runs at the top of that lineup?  Yeah, right.  Add about 20 on to that without even doing anything else.

 

It just looks like they went ultra conservative on him in 4 out of 5 categories (shaving off 10-20% off of where he should be actually) when he has exceeded every one of those numbers in each of his last two seasons.  He is just now hitting his prime.  I'm not sure why they see a 10-20% drop in production.

 

 

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On 11/8/2017 at 11:52 AM, EmbargoLifted said:

Depth Charts projection (Steamer with an adjustment made for playing time) has him at: 

 

651 PA, .310 BA, 18 HR, 24 SB, 93 R, 84 RBI 

 

Trout is still in another tier altogether. 

 

Altuve is not as safe as one might think. The SB age curve is much steeper with much shorter peak. Banking on a guy who makes up most of his value in BA & SB is a recipe for disaster. Those are two of the most volatile stats in fantasy. I'd take guys like Arenado & Goldschmidt over Altuve -- guys who can slug over .500 in their sleep and produce a lot of roto value even if they have poor BA luck and don't run much.

 


He's beat that BA for 4 consecutive years. Beat that HR total in back to back seasons, has beat that stolen base total every year of his career other than his 57 game rookie season, beat that run total in back to back seasons, and the RBI total is reasonable, but I'd think it's closer to the floor than the ceiling if he stays in the #3 spot. 

Trout is in a league all of his own for other reasons, but that projection is just silly. A significant regression across the board after years of being better in every single category (minus RBI, but batting behind Springer and Bregman, with good OBP's, should keep it up) is simply not reasonable. 

The SB curve can be steeper with a much shorter peak. That's fine. We're talking about a 27 year old man here. Most guys are projected to be getting better still at age 29, not having peaked. If he's 29, start calling out regression a little, sure. But Brett Gardner was 1 stolen base short of stealing the 24 Altuve is projected for, and he's 34 years old. 

I'm all about projections as a "sanity check" to what the industry and others think of a guy, and not just be. But this is just too low for Altuve. He's still at a prime age, and he's bested that every year, and he's smack dab in the middle of the best lineup in baseball (or one of..). 


Yeah, it's hard to project a guy to bat .330+, but that's something Altuve has done 3 of 4 seasons. The one year he didn't? He still beat the .310 projection. 

This is an insanely safe (read: low) projection for this year. He's about as safe as they come in the game. Until the regression starts to rear its ugly head, why predict it's coming without good reason?

Trout is the hands down #1 guy off the board. Altuve is the hands down #2 guy off the board. Only way it changes is 10-12 team leagues with 3 OF spots, 1 Util, and a MI or 2b/ss spot, which really makes Altuve valuable. 

 

A more realistic line for Altuve would be

 

651 PA, .320 BA, 22 HR, 28 SB, 101 R, 84 RBI, .390 OBP,  .530 SLG

And those are still really safe projections. The guys a machine. 

 

This isn't attacking you for sharing the projections, but a little disappointed that someone whose opinion I highly respect tried to justify why Altuve isn't one of the safer players. 

Yes, SB and AVG are a nightmare to bank on, they are so volatile, which is exactly why Altuve is so valuable. The guy hasn't batted under .313 in 4 years, not stole under 30 bases in 4 years. And he looks like he's an apparent lock to give 20 HR too. How is it even remotely possible to over value a guy who is gonna bat .315 with 20 hr, 30 SB, 90-110 runs and 80-100 RBI's? Especially out of the second base spot. Some guys are more than capable of being more valuable, but Altuve is as safe as they come, and he has an enormous ceiling on top of his already way high floor. That's what makes Trout so valuable. 

Both guys are elite, and both guys should be the first two guys off the board. In what order, it just depends. 

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Here is my analysis.

 

STUD.

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On 11/8/2017 at 12:52 PM, EmbargoLifted said:

Depth Charts projection (Steamer with an adjustment made for playing time) has him at: 

 

651 PA, .310 BA, 18 HR, 24 SB, 93 R, 84 RBI 

 

Trout is still in another tier altogether. 

 

Altuve is not as safe as one might think. The SB age curve is much steeper with much shorter peak. Banking on a guy who makes up most of his value in BA & SB is a recipe for disaster. Those are two of the most volatile stats in fantasy. I'd take guys like Arenado & Goldschmidt over Altuve -- guys who can slug over .500 in their sleep and produce a lot of roto value even if they have poor BA luck and don't run much.

 

Any projection under 100 runs is laughable. Steals may drop but he's still a bonafide 1st rounder in any league as a 2B who's a .300/25/100/100 threat.

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Hey, check out this article from 2012... Really makes you chuckle now, but I totally get where Dave Cameron was coming from. I'll paste in some snippets, but the whole thing is worth a read. Also, Cameron was bang on in his closing paragraph. 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-altuve-is-starlin-castro/

 

Below are the Major League career batting lines for both Castro and Altuve.

 

 

Name PA BB% K% BABIP ISO AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
Starlin Castro 1345 5.0% 13.8% 0.350 0.117 0.309 0.345 0.426 0.335 105
Jose Altuve 356 3.7% 12.9% 0.338 0.111 0.301 0.331 0.413 0.328 107

You’d be hard pressed to find two more similar batting lines between any two players in baseball. Castro’s numbers are fractionally higher across the board, but after you adjust for the falling league average during the times they’ve been in the league (average wOBA was .321 in 2010, .316 last year, and .313 this year), Altuve’s line is marginally better. In reality, though, the differences are so small that the best description of their performances is that they’re pretty much the same.

 

And, while it’s still early in Altuve’s career, he’s actually showing that he might actually be better at the contact/power combination than Castro. In his 234 plate appearances as a rookie last year, his contact rate on swings was 87.5 percent, slightly higher than Castro has posted in any MLB season. During the first five weeks of the 2010 season, his contact rate has jumped up to 93.6 percent, tying him with Marco Scutaro and Ichiro Suzuki for the highest contact rate of any hitter in baseball. If you look at 2011 and 2012 together, Altuve’s 89.3 percent contact rate puts him 23rd in baseball among players with 300+ PA. Castro’s career contact rate is a strong 85.0 percent, but he’s actually trending downwards, coming in at 82.7 percent so far in 2012.

 

Like Castro, Altuve’s going to need to a post an above average BABIP in order to sustain his offensive value, and like Castro, he’s not likely to keep getting hits to fall in as often as they have so far in 2012.

 

Before the season started, we wondered if the 2012 Astros were going to be one of the worst teams we’ve seen in recent history. Thanks in large part to the success of Jose Altuve (and his double play partner Jed Lowrie, but that’s another post), the Astros are actually a respectable 13-16 and are giving their fans reasons for optimism. Altuve might not yet be a household name, but he’s on his way to establishing himself as a legitimate young star that the Astros can build around.

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@DoTheRoar regression at age 27 in his prime? How can you avoid the number two pick in the first round? Your going to have to back this up with some real facts on why this is.  Out of curiosity when would you consider taking him then?

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