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Cleveland Browns Outlook 2017

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19 minutes ago, devaster said:

Wentz made the leap and has made everyone around him better. Many didn't expect them to be this good this season. A QB does save and stabilize the organization, but it needs to be the right QB. I don't really like any of the rookie QBs this season except for Mayfield. But Mayfield is going to have issues behind an OL with his size. He will need a good HC, OC, and QBs coach to work with him to make it work. Not many QBs with Brees' or Wilson's size are successful.

 

Went made the leap but with a team that had an above .500 record when he took over. Fact is the Eagles didnt suck before Wentz became the QB they had continuity of vet players who knew how to win games and a new coach with a mandate to get them back to the playoffs.  Wentz also was  not throwing passes to rookie wr's either and sproles was his life line.  The context is totally different.  Goff looked like a lost cause his rookie season and it turns out he isnt one.  QB's without infrastructure and good coaching do not save franchises. 

Edited by dashoe

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The Browns have a lot of infrastructure already. They need a QB and coaching. They have neither. They can't keep trading out of potential franchise QBs. Even without infrastructure for a rookie QB, with coaching and a decent front office they can build around the QB. The Browns need all of that.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

The Browns have a lot of infrastructure already. They need a QB and coaching. They have neither. They can't keep trading out of potential franchise QBs. Even without infrastructure for a rookie QB, with coaching and a decent front office they can build around the QB. The Browns need all of that.

 

1 minute ago, devaster said:

The Browns have a lot of infrastructure already. They need a QB and coaching. They have neither. They can't keep trading out of potential franchise QBs. Even without infrastructure for a rookie QB, with coaching and a decent front office they can build around the QB. The Browns need all of that.

 

To get a "franchise" QB you typically need one of 3 things:  (1) lots of cap space to pay a franchise level FA,  (2) lots of draft pick assets to trade for a franchise level non-FA, or (3) spend a high draft pick on a QB and hope the pick hits (about a 1/3 chance per historical observations).   Many teams choose #3 for cost saving reasons (you can pay your "franchise QB" rookie payscale for the first few years) but you are playing the odds of a draft bust.  Paying a FA or trading for someone also isn't a slam dunk (see the case of well paid FA Matt Flynn losing the starting job to third round pick Russell Wilson) but the odds are better than drafting one.  Since the Browns have $108 million in cap space I'd daresay that getting a FA guy would be wise even if they spend a 1.01 or 1.04 pick on a "franchise QB of the future."  Let the new guy develop under the vet like how the Packers handled Aaron Rodgers in his first seasons. 

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I agree. They have plenty of cap room to pick a top rookie QB and also pursue big name FA's and veterans to run the locker room. Wouldn't hurt to sign a QB like McCarron, Smith, etc. to provide a bridge to the rookie. If there are any rookie QBs that grade as well as Wentz the Browns would be idiots not to draft them.

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4 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

Browns have used 3 first round picks on QBs in the last 10 years and netted Brady Quinn (2007), Brandon Weeden (2012), and Johnny Manziel (2014).  And historically a high draft pick QB probably has less chance of success as getting a veteran FA.  It's probable the Browns will use either the 1.01 or 1.04 on a QB, I just don't think it's a good idea.  Neither Josh Rosen nor Sam Darnold seem like sure things that high.  Lamar Jackson seems like a better candidate then both but his projected draft position doesn't align with Browns picks so they may need to trade down (or up) to get him. 

 

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html

 

I don't think you can compare a late 1st rd QB with an early rd QB. The success rate for an early 1st rd is not that bad.  These are not some QBs who just popped into the equation. These are guys who have been talked about for quite a while and teams were willing to suck for.

I think the ghost of Couch is haunting Browns fans.

Basically everyone is saying these guys should go 1 and 2.  How often do they expect to get the #1 pick.

Also they have so much money, they can probably sign Alex Smith and draft a QB #1. 

If anything, do it for the fans.  You know how excited they would be if they brought in Darnold and Barkley in the same draft? It would atleast bring them hope.

Sign a few O line free agents and you got something Brown fans can look forward to.

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16 minutes ago, RustyMiller said:

 

I don't think you can compare a late 1st rd QB with an early rd QB. The success rate for an early 1st rd is not that bad.  These are not some QBs who just popped into the equation. These are guys who have been talked about for quite a while and teams were willing to suck for.

I think the ghost of Couch is haunting Browns fans.

Basically everyone is saying these guys should go 1 and 2.  How often do they expect to get the #1 pick.

Also they have so much money, they can probably sign Alex Smith and draft a QB #1. 

If anything, do it for the fans.  You know how excited they would be if they brought in Darnold and Barkley in the same draft? It would atleast bring them hope.

Sign a few O line free agents and you got something Brown fans can look forward to.

Top five overall QB picks since 2000 are barely 50% successful to bust rate. Most of what I would call successful weren't all pro .

 

Winston,Mariota, Goff and Wentz are most recent. All I would call successful. How many would you put top 5 in the league? Top Ten ?

 

Where would you put Bortles ?

 

Bradford,Luck,Griffin,Vince Young,Jamarcus, Stafford,Sanchez,etc...

 

You get the picture. Some are serviceable, some above that. Many are busts. A few are pro bowl worthy. Only a couple are considered All Pro / Hall of Fame potential worthy.

 

Which of this year's would you bet your franchise (and maybe your job) on @ #1 ?

 Or do you go Saquon and take whomever falls to you @ 4 ? Or as was mentioned B. Chubb & M. Fitzpatrick then get a Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph in rd 2. Sign Alex Smith or Bradford for next season or two.

 

Rosen is the best talent but riskiest proposition due to being flaky. None of the rest are as sure fire potential pro bowl prospects that some of the other available players in the draft are. Bringing in a vet like Cousins, Smith, Bradford...Hell, bring back J. McCown for a couple of years til team gets young guy ready or drafts one in 2019.

 

Unless one if these guys blows you away in workouts and the interview process I would go best player available. 

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The thing is these guys are rated in the top 5 by alot of people overall, not just QBs.

There are alot of years where teams reach for a QB out of necessity.

I don't think this is one of those years.  If you take away the QBs that were reaches, the success rate is a bit higher.

Taking a QB is always a risk, but that's a risk you have to take in a situation like this.

They already f'd up the past 2 years.  If they do it again, there might be riots in Cleveland. 

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They have riots in Cleveland as a right of passage... Cleveland Rocks like a mutha'.

 

It's in their DNA (and probably in their water)

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58 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

Top five overall QB picks since 2000 are barely 50% successful to bust rate. Most of what I would call successful weren't all pro .

 

Winston,Mariota, Goff and Wentz are most recent. All I would call successful. How many would you put top 5 in the league? Top Ten ?

 

Where would you put Bortles ?

 

Bradford,Luck,Griffin,Vince Young,Jamarcus, Stafford,Sanchez,etc...

 

You get the picture. Some are serviceable, some above that. Many are busts. A few are pro bowl worthy. Only a couple are considered All Pro / Hall of Fame potential worthy.

 

Which of this year's would you bet your franchise (and maybe your job) on @ #1 ?

 Or do you go Saquon and take whomever falls to you @ 4 ? Or as was mentioned B. Chubb & M. Fitzpatrick then get a Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph in rd 2. Sign Alex Smith or Bradford for next season or two.

 

Rosen is the best talent but riskiest proposition due to being flaky. None of the rest are as sure fire potential pro bowl prospects that some of the other available players in the draft are. Bringing in a vet like Cousins, Smith, Bradford...Hell, bring back J. McCown for a couple of years til team gets young guy ready or drafts one in 2019.

 

Unless one if these guys blows you away in workouts and the interview process I would go best player available. 

 

I think way too much depends on where the all the FA quarterbacks find new homes. Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown, and Geno Smith (!) are all available.  Broncos, Jets, and Miami might all go the FA route which would make for some interesting possibilities. Cardinals might be desperate enough to trade away a kings ransom to upgrade from 1.15 to 1.04 to draft a QB in which case Josh Allen or someone might make tons of sense for the Browns to pair with their own FA add.

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9 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

I think way too much depends on where the all the FA quarterbacks find new homes. Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Case Keenum, Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown, and Geno Smith (!) are all available.  Broncos, Jets, and Miami might all go the FA route which would make for some interesting possibilities. Cardinals might be desperate enough to trade away a kings ransom to upgrade from 1.15 to 1.04 to draft a QB in which case Josh Allen or someone might make tons of sense for the Browns to pair with their own FA add.

 

Funny thing is no one is even talking about Tyrod Taylor as a FA, the Bills have made it clear the last 2yrs they don't think he is their future QB, he really has no incentive to stay there and he wouldnt command a massive payday if released or traded.

I think the browns could use him if hue doesnt get mcarron

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18 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Funny thing is no one is even talking about Tyrod Taylor as a FA, the Bills have made it clear the last 2yrs they don't think he is their future QB, he really has no incentive to stay there and he wouldnt command a massive payday if released or traded.

I think the browns could use him if hue doesnt get mcarron

 

Kaepernick also, if he's willing to accept that he might need to be a backup with a chance to compete rather than guaranteed starter.  Sam Bradford on a one-year "prove you can stay healthy" deal would be sneaky like a Tryod signing as well. 

 

That's without even considering the "journeyman backup/spot starter" level guys like Drew Stanton, Matt Moore, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc. 

Edited by jumper

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They have two top 4 picks, plus a ton of other picks from trades.  Josh Gordon is back, as long as he stays weed free this offseason. If they improve the QB situation and add a few pieces through FA to the defense.

 

The schedule isn't tough, since they play the other last place team; and they play the NFC East and AFC East.

 

I could see 9-7 or 10-6.  The AFC  outside of NE and Pittsburgh is really a toss up.

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4 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

They have two top 4 picks, plus a ton of other picks from trades.  Josh Gordon is back, as long as he stays weed free this offseason. If they improve the QB situation and add a few pieces through FA to the defense.

 

The schedule isn't tough, since they play the other last place team; and they play the NFC East and AFC East.

 

I could see 9-7 or 10-6.  The AFC  outside of NE and Pittsburgh is really a toss up.

 

That's ambitious but doable; the 2007 Dolphins were 1-15 and then went 11-5 and in the playoffs the next year. Honestly the more research I do the more it seems like Hue Jackson's complex offensive scheme (almost Raiders style obsession with the long pass, one of the highest average attempt distance in the league) and play calling that goes against the strengths of his players are more at fault than lack of capability by Kizer or other factors.  Even if they keep Hue, with the proper OC the Browns might noise next year. They don't need to go to ultra conservative mode but perhaps some plays designed to the strengths of the team and involving under-utilized assets like Njoku more and maybe picking up an Edelman style slot receiver would work wonders. Everybody is clamoring for the deep bombs to Josh Gordon but that's not where the team is going to make its money next year.  Or if you're going to insist on it then at the least get someone who's good at it (surprisingly Alex Smith has been excellent in the longball this year).

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_KIZ080286_20

 

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1 hour ago, jumper said:

 

That's ambitious but doable; the 2007 Dolphins were 1-15 and then went 11-5 and in the playoffs the next year. Honestly the more research I do the more it seems like Hue Jackson's complex offensive scheme (almost Raiders style obsession with the long pass, one of the highest average attempt distance in the league) and play calling that goes against the strengths of his players are more at fault than lack of capability by Kizer or other factors.  Even if they keep Hue, with the proper OC the Browns might noise next year. They don't need to go to ultra conservative mode but perhaps some plays designed to the strengths of the team and involving under-utilized assets like Njoku more and maybe picking up an Edelman style slot receiver would work wonders. Everybody is clamoring for the deep bombs to Josh Gordon but that's not where the team is going to make its money next year.  Or if you're going to insist on it then at the least get someone who's good at it (surprisingly Alex Smith has been excellent in the longball this year).

 

passer-rating-vs-league-avg_KIZ080286_20

 

 

Problem with Alex Smith is he only throws the deep wall when he se the wr open, he is so risk averse he doesnt throw the ball where he anticipates the wr to be or 50/5 balls.  So when he connects with tyreek u know for a fact tyreek was completely open.  The problem with Kizer is he is a slow processor of what is happening on the field and by the time he makes a decision and executes the opportunity for the play is over; he needs time on the debvelopment squad he is not ready for primetime play and no  amount of offensive scheming from the OC helps Kizer overcome that.  The beauty of Josh gordon is he can run an entire route tree because of his speed, size and skill sets; it would be dumb for any OC to simply use him on deep routes and not focus more on exploiting mismatches in coverage with him. Kasen williams could fill that edelman like role ur speaking of

Edited by dashoe

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Smith was the best deep ball thrower in the league this season for what that is worth. I remember a number of plays where Tyreek was not open and had to make a play on the ball. Or it was under thrown and he came back for it to prevent the INT. Can't always trust Smith to continue playing like that, but it is a sign of improvement.

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42 minutes ago, devaster said:

Smith was the best deep ball thrower in the league this season for what that is worth. I remember a number of plays where Tyreek was not open and had to make a play on the ball. Or it was under thrown and he came back for it to prevent the INT. Can't always trust Smith to continue playing like that, but it is a sign of improvement.

 

Best deep ball thrower is not the issue the issue is HOW he throws the deep ball. Even KC coaches and analysts have made similar comments about how he waits to confirm the wr is open before he makes his throw, u can see it in the film; it's that part of his game that has always hurt him. No one questions his ability or throwing skill to connect on a deep ball but the fact is he hesitates making the timely throw(which also leads to underthrowing the wr or missing him) because he wants to avoid the turnover which hinders the big play ability of the offense. 

Edited by dashoe

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If they keep all their picks they have 4 of the top 35 picks right now.  That's a lot of talent to add.

 

They will have Joe Thomas, Josh Gordon and Myles Garrett for the whole season, plus any FAs they bring in.

 

Also look at their roster, most guys are either rookies or in their first 2 or 3 years.  It's reasonable to think that some of those guys will improve.  With the right draft picks, FA signings and bringing in the right coaches the Browns will be vastly improved.

 

We are talking about the Browns so for all those to go right is unlikely, but I still think the playoffs are possible.

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21 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

If they keep all their picks they have 4 of the top 35 picks right now.  That's a lot of talent to add.

 

They will have Joe Thomas, Josh Gordon and Myles Garrett for the whole season, plus any FAs they bring in.

 

Also look at their roster, most guys are either rookies or in their first 2 or 3 years.  It's reasonable to think that some of those guys will improve.  With the right draft picks, FA signings and bringing in the right coaches the Browns will be vastly improved.

 

We are talking about the Browns so for all those to go right is unlikely, but I still think the playoffs are possible.

Not sure about playoffs, but I think a team if their total wins o/u numbers comes out very low, could be a great season long bet

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