brockpapersizer

Tommy Pham 2018 Outlook

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I wanted to continue our discussion with @The Czar about Pham, but felt it most appropriate to do so here.

 

I'm not sure where Pham goes. I think in deeper 5 OF redraft leagues he's probably a much higher pick than he will be in keepers or shallow leagues, i guess that's obvious though.   His numbers last year over more at bats is a first round pick and he can be had later.  There are some red flags, his vision will always be a question mark and I think he's more of a candidate to take time off or slump because of it. He's also going to be 30 when next season starts, which is still an athletic prime but he's probably not having a better season and there is some downside in the near future.  I think the .368 BABIP is a little high, but not incredibly.  I've read some interviews from him. I think as long as he sees the ball well he's going to be a good hitter.

 

I'm not sure where he goes in drafts, but he's one of the most interesting players to track in the offseason. I don't think many players had a 300/400/500 slash line last year

 

Altuve,

Blackmon (tecnically 399  OBP)

Rendon

Trout

Goldy (technically 297 AVG)

Votto

Justin Turner

Bryant (technically 295)

 

 

 

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This is what I said in the Betts thread about Pham going in the 5th round:

 

Quote

 

Do you really think Pham will go that late?  He finished as the 35th ranked player and that was ONLY in 444 ABs and 23rd based on average stats per game.  I've noticed with guys like Pollock and Blackmon after their breakouts that ranking systems were not shy at all about putting them high up in the rankings.  I think Pham will be the same way.

 

Given that he will probably be projected for 600-650 ABs next year, he will be ranked accordingly and will probably be ranked in the 30-45 range, which would put him as a potential 3rd-4th rounder.  Maybe trending upward after the first week or two of drafting.  The trend around fantasy baseball is that computer models and projection systems don't sleep on guys any more.  Pham is a guy I could have targeted in the 5th or 6th maybe 5-6 years ago because they seemed to use 3-year averages or do projections with an abacus.  It seems like they are way more bullish on guys now and will rank them accordingly.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Pham ranked late 2nd or early 3rd round next year tbh.  I don't want to see that, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

 

Some thoughts:  I think his BABIP was slightly inflated, so I'd adjust his average to more the .285-.290 range for next season's projections.

 

His HR/FB% is WAY WAY high at 26.7%, putting him at 6th in all of baseball between Khris Davis and Ryan Zimmerman.  I think there is zero chance he repeats that, but I don't know what to think anymore with the new baseballs they have been using since middle of 2016.  I know the WS is getting the attention for the new baseballs, but the homer surge began post All-Star break 2016 according to the stats, leading to some inflated HR/FB%'s even going into last season.  I noticed crunching last year's numbers that something was going on post break 2016.  Either way, I don't see him repeating 26.7%, even with goofy baseballs.  But, less home runs will be offset with more at-bats, so even if it drops to a more sustainable number (say 15%), he will still hit homers.  So, he could get 100 to 150 more at-bats and still end up with a similar HR total of 20-25.

 

His splits were solid both right and left.  He killed it on the road, which is odd since most players play better at home.  Seriously, his road stats are crazy.  .340-17-52-45-11 in only 244 ABs.  That is really bizarre.

 

He was consistent pretty much every month, not showing a scalding hot month to offset two poor months or something similar.  He was better as the season went along, which is HUGE to me because most guys will fade in a breakout season as the scouting reports catch up to them.  He got better as the season went along.  There is still some risk though with a guy after a breakout that teams will spend more time scouting and trying to find holes. 

 

It looks like he countered every adjustment though as his BB% surged in the second half, while his K% decreased and teams couldn't shift against him.  If those gains in in BB% and K% hold, then he offsets any drop in BABIP and then really does become a legit .300 hitter.  Seriously, looking at his gains in those categories as the season went on makes me think that maybe he could repeat that .300 average.  Hmmm.  Nothing his his profile says fluke.  BB% is awesome,  K% is not obnoxious, although it would be nice if it was lower.  Chris Taylor will be a guy that people look at in a similar fashion next season, but Pham's peripheral numbers are way better to support his breakout than Taylor's (higher K%, lower BB%)

 

If I had to project him right now based on info on hand:   .290 average, 22 bombs, 105 runs, 75 RBI (depends on order placement, bump up if hitting 3rd/take 15 off if leading off), 27 Steals. 

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I would want to see another year before going to heavy invest, that said as Brock mentioned in a 12-14 teamer with 5 OF's taking a shot on him as your 4th-5thOF, I mean 20-20 with .300 and 90+ scored?  

 

Interesting stats:

* His stolen bases this year for the Cards were his career high at any level, he had only one other season where he stole 20.  So does that continue?

* His HR were uber streaky, I think 15 of his 23 home runs came either in multi-HR games OR back to back games where he hit a HR.  

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12 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I would want to see another year before going to heavy invest, that said as Brock mentioned in a 12-14 teamer with 5 OF's taking a shot on him as your 4th-5thOF, I mean 20-20 with .300 and 90+ scored?  

 

Interesting stats:

* His stolen bases this year for the Cards were his career high at any level, he had only one other season where he stole 20.  So does that continue?

* His HR were uber streaky, I think 15 of his 23 home runs came either in multi-HR games OR back to back games where he hit a HR.  

 

I think Brock was saying he would have more value in those deeper OF leagues, so he would go earlier in those drafts than in standard leagues, not that he will be a 4/5 guy. Not sure though.

 

He was the 12th ranked OF in all of baseball last year in only 444 ABs.  To be a 4 or 5 OF, he'd have to rank in the 50-60 range as an OF (which would be in the area of 125-140 ranking overall?).  That's Melky Cabrera, Gardner,  Choo, Duvall, Bruce territory where you find guys that are pretty flawed and don't fill every category.  I still think Pham will be ranked in the 30-45 range just from those SBs.

 

I think anyone that is drafting Pham is doing it as their #2-3 OF given where he will probably be ranked come draft time.

 

Would you take say A.J. Pollock ahead of Pham next year?  That is a tough one for me.  Pollock has big upside, but is so injury prone.  I think I'd lean Pham at this point.

 

Let's look at what the rest of that tier will be.

 

If you look at the other guys that will be around Pham come draft time, they come with equal question marks: Benintendi (I think he will be higher on the draft board, with Sox/name recognition, Probably 10 spots higher), Whit Merrifield (similar to Pham, might be B pick to his A or vice versa, I'd probably lean Merrifield with those SB and 2nd eligibility), Christian Yelich (I'd go Pham over him), Andrew McCutchen (older, I think I'll have Pham higher), Khris Davis (different skill set, but I don't like average anchors),  Domingo Santana (this is a tough one for me), Chris Taylor (will be lower on mine than Pham).  I'm sure there will be others grouped around him, but you get the point.  I think those guys will make up your OF 2/3 tier and Pham will be right in the middle of that group and I think those will be the guys ranked in that 40-65 area on the draft board.  All of them were top 25 OF last season and all of them ranked in the top 80 overall.  I didn't profile all of them yet, but my point is that he will be in that grouping and I think based on last year's production, it puts him in that tier of guys.  As always, it's early, so I'm just throwing names and tiers out there and haven't done any preliminary work on projections, tiers, order, etc.  

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If the #2earlymock drafts are to be believed, Merrifield's going about a round earlier (66 vs. 75 for Pham), which makes sense with the 2B eligibility.  No question I'm on team Whit there.  Taylor's also a guy who's going to get a big eligibility bump, but he clocked in much later at 116.

 

Guys around Pham from the early mocks who will likely be played as outfielders are:

 

 Andrew Benintendi     56.0
    Billy Hamilton     59.0
        Ryan Braun     60.0
      Byron Buxton     64.0
  Christian Yelich     65.0
      A.J. Pollock     67.0
   Yoenis Cespedes     71.0
        Tommy Pham     75.0
  Andrew McCutchen     77.0
       Khris Davis     79.0
   Domingo Santana     80.0
      Lorenzo Cain     85.0
   Gregory Polanco     91.0
    Ender Inciarte    107.0
        Adam Jones    108.0
  Michael Conforto    112.0
        Adam Eaton    122.0
   Kevin Kiermaier    129.0

 

There might be one or two other guys who lose a better eligibility in there that I'm leaving out, but I can't think of them off the top of my head, and that depends on format.  But there's no question that comparing Pham to guys who can play at SS isn't apples to apples.

 

Of the guys listed ahead of him, I'd probably take him over Ces and Pollock because of injury concerns, but I'm not going any higher.  I'd definitely take Cutch and Krush ahead of Pham, though.  Santana's a toss-up, but probably Pham.  After that I'm pretty solidly for Pham.

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32 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

If the #2earlymock drafts are to be believed, Merrifield's going about a round earlier (66 vs. 75 for Pham), which makes sense with the 2B eligibility.  No question I'm on team Whit there.  Taylor's also a guy who's going to get a big eligibility bump, but he clocked in much later at 116.

 

Guys around Pham from the early mocks who will likely be played as outfielders are:

 


 Andrew Benintendi     56.0
    Billy Hamilton     59.0
        Ryan Braun     60.0
      Byron Buxton     64.0
  Christian Yelich     65.0
      A.J. Pollock     67.0
   Yoenis Cespedes     71.0
        Tommy Pham     75.0
  Andrew McCutchen     77.0
       Khris Davis     79.0
   Domingo Santana     80.0
      Lorenzo Cain     85.0
   Gregory Polanco     91.0
    Ender Inciarte    107.0
        Adam Jones    108.0
  Michael Conforto    112.0
        Adam Eaton    122.0
   Kevin Kiermaier    129.0

 

There might be one or two other guys who lose a better eligibility in there that I'm leaving out, but I can't think of them off the top of my head, and that depends on format.  But there's no question that comparing Pham to guys who can play at SS isn't apples to apples.

 

Of the guys listed ahead of him, I'd probably take him over Ces and Pollock because of injury concerns, but I'm not going any higher.  I'd definitely take Cutch and Krush ahead of Pham, though.  Santana's a toss-up, but probably Pham.  After that I'm pretty solidly for Pham.

 

Where are you getting your mocks at?    It looks like I'm pretty right on with his tier and what other players are ranked around him, but I'm way off on where I see him ranked.  Considering he was 35th overall player last year in only 444 ABs, I would have thought he'd be much higher than 75, but I haven't ranked them all yet.  I'd like to see a mock draft though to see what guys they have going earlier.  Even if his ranking is between 50-75 though, that still likely puts him as an OF 2-3 on most teams.  

 

I've found that mock's can be influenced by the previous year's rankings though, more so than updated projections.  Once all the numbers are crunched and the drafting systems are reordered based on the newer projections, you might see some shifts in ADP.  Pham might be a guy like that that moves up quite a bit when all the projections are done in the systems.  For example, no way do I take Ryan Braun over Pham next year.  He is a name recognition player in serious decline that only produced at about half the level that Pham did in a similar number of at-bats.  He is the type of name that will go early in early mocks based on previous production and name recognition, but once the projections are adjusted, I could see him going down this list, while a guy like Pham shoots up it.  I wouldn't even have them grouped in the same tier next year and they have Braun 15 spots higher at age 34?  I just don't see the bounce back that will make Braun a 25-25 guy again and I think Pham will push those numbers again next season.  Braun will have to stay healthy and I don't see how he will compensate for the extra 15 or so SB that I think Pham will get on him, even if he hits just as many HRs. 

 

We will have to look back on this in late March when the drafts are going down to see how much of an adjustment there is between now and then.  I'll be curious to see if he moves from that 75 in mocks to where I think he will end up, which is much higher.  If he is still going 75 next year, he is going to end up on a lot of my teams. That's just not a good ranking for a guy that didn't slump last year, has no glaring hole or peripheral problem, improved in the second half, and ranked 23rd in average stats per game last season.  Looking at average stats per game and noting the difference in ranking is a great way to find bargains on draft day.

Edited by The Czar
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1 hour ago, The Czar said:

Where are you getting your mocks at?

 

Those numbers are from my own analysis of the four industry mock drafts that Justin Mason of Fangraphs conducted over the past month or so at Couch Managers.  The "official" numbers are here, but they should (hopefully!) only differ from mine in the case of ties.  I planned on writing up a long-ish post showing positional tiers, etc. at some point but haven't had the time.  But yeah, since those drafts are all "industry" players, I'd expect them to skew more toward track record and fade someone like Pham.  When the "real" ADPs of drafts including casual players come in, I have to expect Pham will go sooner.

 

But how much sooner?  We're talking about a guy with some major question marks.  Yes, he put great numbers up in less than a full season, but there's no reason to believe he'll play a full season next year, and it's reasonable to wonder if he didn't just have his career year already, justifying a significant drop from his roto value (which was actually #24 according to ESPN.)  I know it's tempting to say the vision issue means this is his real level (assuming continued health) but maybe the vision correction helped *and* he had some good fortune.  BABIP isn't the only component of luck, it's just the only one we can easily measure.

 

If he's going in the 60s-70s next March, I can see myself buying in.  If he's going in the 50s, 40s or anywhere higher than that, I can't see myself taking that risk.  There's very little room for profit at that point given the very real possibility that 2017 was the outlier.  The SBs add some level of protection against a total collapse, but those can trail off as well if he's not hitting.  In shallow leagues, especially 3 OF where the replacement value is high, I might reach for the brass ring.  In deeper leagues, there are much safer bets with track records available in the 4th/5th round that I'd want first.

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17 hours ago, The Czar said:

 

Where are you getting your mocks at?    It looks like I'm pretty right on with his tier and what other players are ranked around him, but I'm way off on where I see him ranked.  Considering he was 35th overall player last year in only 444 ABs, I would have thought he'd be much higher than 75, but I haven't ranked them all yet.  I'd like to see a mock draft though to see what guys they have going earlier.  Even if his ranking is between 50-75 though, that still likely puts him as an OF 2-3 on most teams.  

 

I've found that mock's can be influenced by the previous year's rankings though, more so than updated projections.  Once all the numbers are crunched and the drafting systems are reordered based on the newer projections, you might see some shifts in ADP.  Pham might be a guy like that that moves up quite a bit when all the projections are done in the systems.  For example, no way do I take Ryan Braun over Pham next year.  He is a name recognition player in serious decline that only produced at about half the level that Pham did in a similar number of at-bats.  He is the type of name that will go early in early mocks based on previous production and name recognition, but once the projections are adjusted, I could see him going down this list, while a guy like Pham shoots up it.  I wouldn't even have them grouped in the same tier next year and they have Braun 15 spots higher at age 34?  I just don't see the bounce back that will make Braun a 25-25 guy again and I think Pham will push those numbers again next season.  Braun will have to stay healthy and I don't see how he will compensate for the extra 15 or so SB that I think Pham will get on him, even if he hits just as many HRs. 

 

We will have to look back on this in late March when the drafts are going down to see how much of an adjustment there is between now and then.  I'll be curious to see if he moves from that 75 in mocks to where I think he will end up, which is much higher.  If he is still going 75 next year, he is going to end up on a lot of my teams. That's just not a good ranking for a guy that didn't slump last year, has no glaring hole or peripheral problem, improved in the second half, and ranked 23rd in average stats per game last season.  Looking at average stats per game and noting the difference in ranking is a great way to find bargains on draft day.

Correct, misread his post - so in the 70's for ADP in a 12-teamer that is what the 6th-7th round?  Thats probably a bit low, but the fantasy world has a way of devaluing those who dont have the pedigree, are a little older, etc...I mean if Alex Bregman puts those numbers up, he is probably gone by mid 2nd round, its sort of like what was experienced with Villar last year.  It took some of those guys like Jose Bautista to have to back up the breakout before the ADP was really there.  

 

 

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With 3rd/SS Bregman is a mid 2nd round pick. Take a look at the season numbers and factor in position scarcity and position eligibility.. 

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1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

With 3rd/SS Bregman is a mid 2nd round pick. Take a look at the season numbers and factor in position scarcity and position eligibility.. 

 

I'd factor in age, pedigree, and lack of chronic injury above just being a SS. Having both is super helpful though. SS isn't as bad as it was 3-5 years ago when it was Tulo (who usually sucked) and deciding on how to early it was to take Jose Reyes (and regret it later). Hanley and Desmond generally disappointed.  Now we have Correa, Seager, Lindor, and Turner just to start. All seem a lot less risky than the guys years ago. I'd still take an OF over Bregman if I was more confident in my projection, the eligibility is certainly a better tie breaker though. 

 

I want to believe in Pham and have him as a dirt cheap keeper in a league. I think he has a decent chance to be a star next year, but there are certainly some red flags here.

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I look at Bregman as a 3rd/SS/MI/CI/UTL when talking multi-position. But then I am extremely high on him as don't think we have seen a ceiling yet for him.

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36 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

I gotta day I had no clue this guy was basically Mookie Betts last year

 

did I say basically Betts, I mean better

 

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People will (and probably should) be scared of his degenerative eye condition, but man, where he's going now is a huuuge value.

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19 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Honestly this doesn't do a lot for me, at least without seeing more swings anyway. His pump isn't really a big deal, since he gets them back to the same position at foot strike. Freeze the vid at moment of foot strike, and it looks the same. I'd like to see him rotate inward a touch more, "hide his hands from the pitcher" at foot strike. Gain depth behind the ball and a little extra bat speed. 

 

Still, I'd draft him as is. 

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Going back to the opening of the thread. Not sure we will be able to wait to the 5th round in standard leagues.

 

CBS has their leagues up and running and they have Pham at 38 on their draft board.  I don't know where the other sites will rank him and CBS is always a bit different from the others, but I think all thoughts of him slipping to the 5th round seem really optimistic.  Pretty big disparity between 75-80 ADP and 38th on the board.  I think 38 is a tad high, but I thought 75 was way too low. 

 

We will have to see as the other sites come out, but wanted to just let you guys know he is at 38 there.

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I guess I am the dissenting opinion here.   I wouldn't touch him unless he dropped to 150.

 

He has had 3/4 of a season where he has played exceptionally well and now he is a top 75 pick?  No pedigree either.

 

Sorry but not buying into him as much as everyone else.

 

That is not to say he won't be an All-Star this season but they hype for this guy is unreal.

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6 hours ago, B&F said:

I guess I am the dissenting opinion here.   I wouldn't touch him unless he dropped to 150.

 

He has had 3/4 of a season where he has played exceptionally well and now he is a top 75 pick?  No pedigree either.

 

Sorry but not buying into him as much as everyone else.

 

That is not to say he won't be an All-Star this season but they hype for this guy is unreal.

TPham is a freaking monster. His bat speed, strength, and speed is exceptional. Plays with his heart on his sleeve and does it all. Put him in my OF everyday.

150?!?! 

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12 hours ago, B&F said:

I guess I am the dissenting opinion here.   I wouldn't touch him unless he dropped to 150.

 

He has had 3/4 of a season where he has played exceptionally well and now he is a top 75 pick?  No pedigree either.

 

Sorry but not buying into him as much as everyone else.

 

That is not to say he won't be an All-Star this season but they hype for this guy is unreal.

The skills he displayed were first round good. Whether he can stay healthy or repeat is certainly debatable but you’re crazy to not consider him in top 100

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On 1/16/2018 at 6:22 AM, WahooManiac said:

Honestly this doesn't do a lot for me, at least without seeing more swings anyway. His pump isn't really a big deal, since he gets them back to the same position at foot strike. Freeze the vid at moment of foot strike, and it looks the same. I'd like to see him rotate inward a touch more, "hide his hands from the pitcher" at foot strike. Gain depth behind the ball and a little extra bat speed. 

 

Still, I'd draft him as is. 

looks like he's swinging a tooth pick up there. That's a vicious hack in 2017. 

 

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