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Tommy Pham 2018 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

With his eye condition it's worth noting that he's worse in Day Games. Almost all spring games are during the day.

 

His splits last year back up that theory. I think the minor league work he did got him down the straight and narrow. As long as he remains selective at the plate with his OSwing% in check, i think he'll be primed for a repeat season

 

image.thumb.png.6588a8bf9476f7f1b3d54616e3cd6c63.png

 

Well, yes, his BA and OBP were down (but not drastically) in day games, but his countings stats were all higher on a per-game basis in his day games.  Not sure why, but I'm not sure the day/night splits tell us a whole lot about his ST struggles.

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17 minutes ago, countseth said:

 

Well, yes, his BA and OBP were down (but not drastically) in day games, but his countings stats were all higher on a per-game basis in his day games.  Not sure why, but I'm not sure the day/night splits tell us a whole lot about his ST struggles.

 

First of all, I really don't care what the counting stats say on a per game basis. They are less helpful than the pure rates. And I find it significant enough to mention because his BB% and K%.

 

Being that BB% and K% are the first to stabilize in a small sample, i find them to be enough of a difference to think it may play a factor. 

 

image.png.d01c4539cf6b05de458deab8f8801f23.png

 

image.png.e009e1f8b1f85a86b53caa1947e0a673.png

Edited by to_be_quite_frank

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It's entirely possible that there's some allergen in the air in Florida that flares up his eyes and makes his contacts not work well. Who knows honestly.

 

I think he's worth a pick, but you should still be prepared for eye problems within the year to be at least an occasional issue.

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May wanna see his NYC eye doctor

0-5, 4Ks

 

When you know he has eye issues, and you see some of his swings... Yikes

 

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12 minutes ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

May wanna see his NYC eye doctor

0-5, 4Ks

 

When you know he has eye issues, and you see some of his swings... Yikes

 

Not good obviously, but we are looking at ABs versus Noah and Degrom, so I wouldn't panic just yet.

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29 minutes ago, Gumbo_Ghost said:

May wanna see his NYC eye doctor

0-5, 4Ks

 

When you know he has eye issues, and you see some of his swings... Yikes

 

 He's not facing average pitchers either...I would try to buy low, hoping someone is scare of the eye issue. I see it as an issue, but one that can be resolved, unless there is something more serious going on I don't know about.

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https://www.mlb.com/news/qa-with-cardinals-tommy-pham/c-270122766

 

"MLB.com: Fair or unfair, you struggled this past Spring Training and the media mentioned your vision problems. How do you feel about it?

 

Pham: People struggle in this game. If anything, I was looking at my mechanics before my vision. My mechanics were not there quite yet. It's getting better. It wasn't there at the moment. When I'm struggling, people are going [to question my vision]. They don't know anything about me. I use my own doctors. I don't even go through the team. The only people that know about me is me and my eye doctor."

 

Right now, he's going to struggle. He's on my bench for the time being. Let's hope it's because of his mechanics and not his vision. But you're not going to get anything for him in a trade, and you're going to hate yourself if you drop him and he turns it on in a few weeks.

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14 minutes ago, Z06vette said:

 He's not facing average pitchers either...I would try to buy low, hoping someone is scare of the eye issue. I see it as an issue, but one that can be resolved, unless there is something more serious going on I don't know about.

 

If his vision wasn't affecting him, wouldn't he come out and say it? And if his vision isn't fine now, why do you feel confident it will eventually be resolved later, if it hasn't been resolved already?

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Mr. Magoo is having a nice game thus far against DeGrom 

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17 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

If his vision wasn't affecting him, wouldn't he come out and say it? And if his vision isn't fine now, why do you feel confident it will eventually be resolved later, if it hasn't been resolved already?

Seems too me Pham is pretty humble and trying not to have an excuse on why he's struggling. So, no not everyone will come out and say, my eyes are messed up, reason I suck right now. Post by Philafanboy shows Pham talking about mechanics when everyone else is talking vision issue.  I didn't know he had degenerative eye disease till now. Still, I try and be optimistic as possible, but of course this isn't just need some glasses or contacts etc...

Edited by Z06vette

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To say I am concerned is an understatement. As a Pham owner, I am trying desperately to trade him before it becomes obvious that his value is completely gone.

 

While draft prepping this winter, I settled on the opinion that everything Pham did last year was legit, and I stand by that opinion. I baked some slight regression into his projection, and still, he represented a clear value at his March 24th Yahoo ADP of 72.6. So I was thrilled to get him with pick 65.

 

I've been regretting it ever since.

 

Good fantasy baseball managers know that to a large degree, spring training stats are to be ignored. But perhaps I should have seen the warning signs this spring instead of blindly following my February projections in my draft. This spring, Tommy Pham batted .220 with a K% of 29.9, well above last years major/minor league K% of 21.7. And if we look at SwStr% and O-Swing%, while we don't know what it was this spring, we do know that last year's elite marks of 7.6%  and 19.0% were dramatic improvements from his vision related 14.0% and 25.4% marks from 2016.

 

If we consider the first two games of this season, sure...it's a small sample size against Thor and DeGrom, but still, when combining the most current data with what he did in spring training and comparing those numbers to last season, it's downright scary.

 

This year....

 

K% -- 62.5%

SwStr% -- 18.0%

O-Swing% -- 33.3%

Contact% -- 61.1% (2017 -- 79.9%, 2016 -- 66.1%)

 

As this thread points out, there was talk in spring training about his degenerative vision condition becoming a problem again. Freak out people.

 

Edited by joshtribe

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I should also add, today's game against Matz should tell us a lot. Last season, Matz couldn't get a SwStr to save his life. If Pham can't hit Matz....yikes.

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It is two games!!!!!!!!  If he does terrible today it’s three only!  

 

This happens every year with random players this board gets hyper focused on.  Posting his stats from a two game sample and spring training, to compare it to past years, in baseball is asinine.  

Edited by Numark
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1 minute ago, Numark said:

It is two games!!!!!!!!  If he does terrible today it’s three only!  

 

This happens every year with random players this board gets hyper focused on.  Posting his stats from a two game sample, to compare it to past years, in baseball is asinine.  

 

I think it's the vision thing that has people spooked. That's a serious issue that has changed the course of careers before. I wouldn't go near him (read: trade for him) in any format right now until it's clear he can see properly. 

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Just now, absknicks said:

 

I think it's the vision thing that has people spooked. That's a serious issue that has changed the course of careers before. I wouldn't go near him (read: trade for him) in any format right now until it's clear he can see properly. 

 

I get it, and he very well may be bad.  But the overanalyzing two games is and has always been silly.  

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14 minutes ago, Numark said:

It is two games!!!!!!!!  If he does terrible today it’s three only!  

 

This happens every year with random players this board gets hyper focused on.  Posting his stats from a two game sample and spring training, to compare it to past years, in baseball is asinine.  

 

I appreciate your spirited reply. Part of the reason I posted this was to be talked off the ledge by people smarter than myself.

 

The reason I posted the numbers from the previous seasons is to provide context for this year's numbers...not to imply that all the sets of data are of equal weight.

 

I'm always trying to be ahead of the curve when it comes to players of decreasing value. Last season, I traded Jon Lester in early April because of his velocity drop before it became widely recognized that he was no longer an elite pitcher. I don't want to lose significant value from any draft pick. If Pham's eyes are truly a problem, I could be left with a player that is barely rosterable if I don't move him soon. Better to pull the plug too soon than too late in these types of situations, in my humble opinion.

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To be fair, Pham's eyes were a problem last year...and the year before that...and the year before that...etc.  I think if they were that big of a problem, he would have never had a season like 2017.  He still hits in a very favorable spot in a very good lineup.  I understand wanting to dump damaged goods but I feel like it's way too early to unload Pham.  

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1 minute ago, jimbo504 said:

He's 1/1 with a walk, a SB, and a run so far today.

 

Crazy what a really talented player can do if we give him more than 2 games in a 162 game season.

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I didn’t draft him , but own a dynasty share. I agree two games is nothing , but I was worried in spring.

 

Hopefully with the season on his maintenance level of his condition is a different level attention. Much like with any medical condition, I have very little to no idea what I’m talking about. Regardless of his condition he was due for some batting average regression this year, but with a whole year of a bats he could get have more homers and steals. 

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