The 7th Beatles

Giancarlo Stanton 2018 Outlook

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8 minutes ago, BustHerPosey said:

On June 18th of last year, Stanton had 17 HR's.

 

He will be fine...don't trade him or you'll regret it

 

Last year was the outlier, not the baseline.

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10 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Last year was the outlier, not the baseline.

You're right. his projected power was higher every year...with exception to last year.

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12 minutes ago, Magoo said:

You're right. his projected power was higher every year...with exception to last year.

 

This prompted me to do a bit more digging, it does seem that last year was the outlier.

 

Stanton never put close to as good a K-BB% ever in his career and his power was also way above his career norms. Going in to the season I thought the move to yankee stadium would make him a stud but when analyzing his homerun chart, when stanton hits the ball, its going to go out regardless of the ballpark. In other words, playing in yankee stadium is not helping him in any way. Another interesting split is his numbers in indoor stadiums vs outdoor. He is much better in a domed environment as there was in Miami. 

 

I still like Stanton but he is probably the most disappointing player this year after Harper. 

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1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

This prompted me to do a bit more digging, it does seem that last year was the outlier.

 

Stanton never put close to as good a K-BB% ever in his career and his power was also way above his career norms. Going in to the season I thought the move to yankee stadium would make him a stud but when analyzing his homerun chart, when stanton hits the ball, its going to go out regardless of the ballpark. In other words, playing in yankee stadium is not helping him in any way. Another interesting split is his numbers in indoor stadiums vs outdoor. He is much better in a domed environment as there was in Miami. 

 

I still like Stanton but he is probably the most disappointing player this year after Harper. 

In all seriousness, the difference between a Stanton slow start/underlying metrics and anyone else, is that Stanton has previously demonstrated (over multiple years) that he has more power than anyone...by a lot (save 17/18 JD Martinez) and an inconsistent batted ball profile otherwise but you get the point.  He can explode at any point, and literally no one would be surprised.  He hits 5 HR in a week and is tied for the league lead.  The quintessential buy low vis a vis perception and expectations.

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3 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

This prompted me to do a bit more digging, it does seem that last year was the outlier.

 

Stanton never put close to as good a K-BB% ever in his career and his power was also way above his career norms. Going in to the season I thought the move to yankee stadium would make him a stud but when analyzing his homerun chart, when stanton hits the ball, its going to go out regardless of the ballpark. In other words, playing in yankee stadium is not helping him in any way. Another interesting split is his numbers in indoor stadiums vs outdoor. He is much better in a domed environment as there was in Miami. 

 

I still like Stanton but he is probably the most disappointing player this year after Harper. 

The move to nyy benefits him by virtue of being in a much better lineup so his counting stats shd be better and hes less likely to be pitches around.

 

The downside is he could be over anxious to prove himself in ny and gets himself out. 

 

Anyway, we shd expect a .250 hitter with 35 homers and we wont be disappointed hes not putting up mvp stats.

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22 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Anyway, we shd expect a .250 hitter with 35 homers and we wont be disappointed hes not putting up mvp stats.

 

I don't believe you will find a single person who actually drafted Stanton this season with a .250/35 expectation. They passed on the top-10 price tag. 

 

With that said.. Stanton can hit 50 easily in NY. Just needs to stay healthy. 

Edited by Brett Butler

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28 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

This prompted me to do a bit more digging, it does seem that last year was the outlier.

 

Stanton never put close to as good a K-BB% ever in his career and his power was also way above his career norms. Going in to the season I thought the move to yankee stadium would make him a stud but when analyzing his homerun chart, when stanton hits the ball, its going to go out regardless of the ballpark. In other words, playing in yankee stadium is not helping him in any way. Another interesting split is his numbers in indoor stadiums vs outdoor. He is much better in a domed environment as there was in Miami. 

 

I still like Stanton but he is probably the most disappointing player this year after Harper. 

 

Appartently you are not an owner of Jonathan Poop

 

2017 = 32 HRs, 92 Runs, 105 RBI with .293 average

2018 = 7 HRs, 27 Runs, 17 RBI with .212 average

 

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1 minute ago, jb_power said:

 

Appartently you are not an owner of Jonathan Poop

 

2017 = 32 HRs, 92 Runs, 105 RBI with .293 average

2018 = 7 HRs, 27 Runs, 17 RBI with .212 average

 

He probably meant first round player.

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7 minutes ago, Brett Butler said:

 

I don't believe you will find a single person who actually drafted Stanton this season with a .250/35 expectation. They passed on the top-10 price tag. 

 

With that said.. Stanton can hit 50 easily in NY. Just needs to stay healthy. 

 

Stanton **could** hit 50 in NY because he has enormous power. Not because he plays in yankee stadium, the effects of that are overstated for him. 

 

But I want to talk about facts and showcase Stantons talent now. He will not provide top 50 value if he doesnt make serious adjustments. He is not hitting the ball enough, his strikeout rate is amongst the worst in the MLB. His walk rate has also taken a big step backwards. His power is also down massively from last year. His exit velocity isnt bad but the case with Stanton is when he connect, he connects big time. Unfortunatlely with stantons batted ball profile and high groundball rate, he would need a massively high hr/fb ratio. I dont think that will happen even for his power. Stanton has actually had some good luck with BABIP so it is conceivable that he could be hit worse moving forward. I absolutely hate his new stance and pitchers are pounding him up and in all day. This iteration of Stanton is a rich mans Joey Gallo. He NEEDS to abandon that stance or make an adjustment to make it work. 

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

In all seriousness, the difference between a Stanton slow start/underlying metrics and anyone else, is that Stanton has previously demonstrated (over multiple years) that he has more power than anyone...by a lot (save 17/18 JD Martinez) and an inconsistent batted ball profile otherwise but you get the point.  He can explode at any point, and literally no one would be surprised.  He hits 5 HR in a week and is tied for the league lead.  The quintessential buy low vis a vis perception and expectations.

 

Judge has considerably more power. 

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hmm...

On 6/18/2018 at 7:50 PM, absknicks said:

 

Judge has considerably more power. 

 

 

also,

 

 

haters gone hate

sheeple gone sheep

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Heating up! Monster walkoff tonight... Made a stance adjustment, glad I haven't wavered from the fact that hes the best power hitter in baseball 

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5 minutes ago, ZChronicNebula said:

hmm...

 

 

also,

 

 

haters gone hate

sheeple gone sheep

 

Huh? Did you just start watching baseball this season?

 

I like Stanton fine, but I think anyone who's objective and who knows the sport would tell you Judge has more power. Dave Cameron said many times last year that Judge had more power than anyone in the sport and no one was close. If you want to argue Stanton is close, that's reasonable, but I think it's a clear #1 and #2 situation.

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Great walk off win for the yanks thanks to Stanton. But he also struck out in his two other ABs, I like Stanton but I need to see alot more before I consider him back. 

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Does anyone else find his splits perplexing - I mean in just how lopsided they are you'd figure that he would hit Lefties better but his numbers off them are insane just looking at 17-18

v LHP  207 wRC+ .482 woba and a .447 (!!!!) iso (199 ABs)

v RHP  127 wRC+ .373 woba and .277 iso  (668 ABs)

You'd be really hard pressed I think to find a RHB who had such drastic splits in favor of LHP its odd 

Should also note that his K rate is right around 10% higher v RHB too at 28.3%

Edited by DidiFan

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Robbed at the wall by haniger in his first at bat. As we've been so kindly informed, he'll always be way behind Judge in terms of power, but I've always said our guy Stanton is like the little engine that could, just chugging along and doing the best he can. 

 

The little engine that could may be leaving the station guys. Get excited.

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He just missed that one... he has performed alot better the last few games! Hopefully a breakout comes soon If he can get the strikeouts in check 

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6 hours ago, hgh22 said:

Robbed at the wall by haniger in his first at bat. As we've been so kindly informed, he'll always be way behind Judge in terms of power, but I've always said our guy Stanton is like the little engine that could, just chugging along and doing the best he can. 

 

The little engine that could may be leaving the station guys. Get excited.

 

Really didn't anticipate this touching off a nerve with so many of you. 

 

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3 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

Really didn't anticipate this touching off a nerve with so many of you. 

 

 

I dont know why its even a point of discussion... Judge has massive power, Stanton also has massive power. Power is not Stantons problem, the problem is he is not hitting the ball consistently. 

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1 hour ago, NoHablaIngles said:

What a day for stanton! Is he back?

yea hes been hot lately

 

OPS over 1 the last week.  think its break out time...could be a big 2nd half like last year, i think he made an adjustment with his stance or something too

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2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

yea hes been hot lately

 

OPS over 1 the last week.  think its break out time...could be a big 2nd half like last year, i think he made an adjustment with his stance or something too

 

 

He's still rocking that closed stance but he did have success with it last year so he could make it work. What is interesting though is I took a look at his heat maps and vast majority of his hits have come down away/middle. He was getting eaten alive by pitchers going up and in and then breaking stuff down and away. I dont know if this is indicative of pitchers missing their spot or stanton staying on the ball better but nevertheless the results are encouraging

Edited by NoHablaIngles

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4 hits today

 

AVG is now at 276.  he also has 22 homeruns this year

 

he had 26 hrs in the first half last year and 33 hrs in the 2nd half

 

its not ridiculous to think he can hit 50 this year if he has a big 2nd half

Edited by jfazz23
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yep hope owners didnt panic. only thing that would prevent him from putting up stanton like numbers is health

Edited by colepenhagen
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