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brockpapersizer

Ozzie Albies 2018 Outlook

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I'm guessing he'll be a trendy breakout/sleeper that his ADP won't be a huge value by draft time, but there's 35+ SB with a good average here.  He's a guy I would love to target on my team in a standard category league. He's going to be one of the youngest players in the majors next season (if not the youngest), so there is considerably downside/adjustment period.

 

Maybe the Acuna hype will make him a tad more under the radar since it's the same team.

 

I think he should probably go in the top 100 picks.

 

Roster Resource has him as batting 2nd right now-  He could very well be similar to what we wanted out Villar last year, except with more pedigree and won't cost a 2/3 round pick.

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Wow, top 100 is higher than I thought. Are you saying that's where you think he'll go or where you'll be drafting him? 

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38 minutes ago, countseth said:

Wow, top 100 is higher than I thought. Are you saying that's where you think he'll go or where you'll be drafting him? 

 

both,  the way he played last year he was basically Starling Marte at 2b.

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20 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I'm guessing he'll be a trendy breakout/sleeper that his ADP won't be a huge value by draft time, but there's 35+ SB with a good average here.  He's a guy I would love to target on my team in a standard category league. He's going to be one of the youngest players in the majors next season (if not the youngest), so there is considerably downside/adjustment period.

 

Maybe the Acuna hype will make him a tad more under the radar since it's the same team.

 

I think he should probably go in the top 100 picks.

 

Roster Resource has him as batting 2nd right now-  He could very well be similar to what we wanted out Villar last year, except with more pedigree and won't cost a 2/3 round pick.

yes brock, i am also targeting this guy.  i also think his power is better than people think and could end up almost jose altuve good (as far as HR/SB)

 

its someone id love to take a risk on at pick 120 and hope he gets like 16 homers and 30 steals

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I like Albies.  I was hoping the Braves would have given him more SS opportunities in case Swanson doesn't hit.

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I am trying to trade for this guy early in my keeper/dynasty leagues because I really missed out after seeing what he did last year. Stat wise since he had a small sample size in the majors I think he's flying under the radar. I agree with Brock that he should be going somewhere near the top 100. From what I see he's around 140-150 right now. I have him as my #12 2B going into this year with top 5 potential in 2019 which is mainly why he's much more appealing in the long run. 

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I think you're going to be sorely disappointed. Draft him as a buy low... next year.

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3 hours ago, dkrocka said:

I think you're going to be sorely disappointed. Draft him as a buy low... next year.

 

Any reasons behind this thought?

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fairly unique skillset. at times, a glimmer of Altuve.  

tremendous confidence. Mint grade bat-to-ball skills. 

thinking there's a solid shot in 2018 at .284-93-12-68-35

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14 hours ago, adifazio27 said:

 

Any reasons behind this thought?

There is an adjustment period for every single rookie. After about 200 at bats the book comes out. The pitchers adjust and its up to the player to adjust back.

 

6BB%/15K% 285/330/456 in AAA at 20 years old is great, but its not superstar material when he turns 21. Now he'll be 22. Past the time when no one knows where he's weak.

 

Contrary to popular belief young players do not get better every year. They may or may not learn every year. They may or may not have to change their approach or even swing. The list of guys that did well in their first 200 at bats is endless. The list of people who failed in the next 600 at bats dwarfs the list of those who succeeded.

 

If you're betting on tremendous growth from a solid if unspectacular prospect, the house has the advantage... No matter how much you like the guy.  I'll take him around pick 120ish at the earliest for that 2B eligibility. The floor seems pretty safe here.

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Given the relative paucity of SBs these days Albies could represent really good value at 30+ while not killing your team HR total. Some good babip fortune and that above average contact rate mean he can flirt with .300 too. 

 

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12 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

fairly unique skillset. at times, a glimmer of Altuve.  

tremendous confidence. Mint grade bat-to-ball skills. 

thinking there's a solid shot in 2018 at .284-93-12-68-35

laughable. I could name dozens and dozens and dozens of guys that failed your extrapolation test across the most crucial time of a career. At bats #300-1000

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20 hours ago, dkrocka said:

laughable. I could name dozens and dozens and dozens of guys that failed your extrapolation test across the most crucial time of a career. At bats #300-1000

 

Well that's rude. You can disagree without calling someone's opinion "laughable." And frankly, it's not laughable. Albies has given reason to believe he's capable of putting up those numbers this year, though I think the SB prediction is pretty ambitious. I'd knock about 10 R, 10 RBI, and 10 SB off Chick's totals, but that hardly makes it laughable. You're basing Albies success/failure on what other players have done over baseball's history. What reasons would you give, based on Albies alone, to say Chick's "solid shot" projection is laughable? 

 

And btw, you said "Now he'll be 22." No he won't. The kid just turned 21 a couple of weeks ago. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Well that's rude. You can disagree without calling someone's opinion "laughable." And frankly, it's not laughable. Albies has given reason to believe he's capable of putting up those numbers this year, though I think the SB prediction is pretty ambitious. I'd knock about 10 R, 10 RBI, and 10 SB off Chick's totals, but that hardly makes it laughable. You're basing Albies success/failure on what other players have done over baseball's history. What reasons would you give, based on Albies alone, to say Chick's "solid shot" projection is laughable? 

 

And btw, you said "Now he'll be 22." No he won't. The kid just turned 21 a couple of weeks ago. 

 

That solid shot projection is extrapolation from a small sample size when pitchers don't have a book on him.

 

Guys tend to get called up when their swinging a hot bat, or an injury occurs. The former is for confidence. It wouldn't make sense to give a guy a taste of the bigs when he's struggling.

 

Slowly but surely pitchers learn tendencies. Baseball is a game of constant adjustment year to year, month to month, even game to game.

 

Pitchers had a taste of Albie's last year. They will attack his weaknesses. Ozzie will have to adjust. Simply to match his extrapolated numbers he will have to grow. 

 

As Ozzie has gone up each level he has gotten worse at each stop. This would suggest that he might be susceptible to quality off speed offerings. Or maybe that his eye is not so keen around the edges.

 

Im rooting for the kid, but the toughest time for a rookie isn't the jitters, it's when pitchers start attacking weak tendencies. I have little doubt he will not be above average in his career. But expecting it next year is a fool's errand that very rarely pays off, and when it does it's usually with a 1:1 k:bb ratio or the guy has some sort of grade that's remarkably close to 80. He has neither. He puts the bat on the ball and has speed. That doesn't make him Jose altuve. There is no guarantee of growth, but I hope he learns quickly.

 

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5 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

 

That solid shot projection is extrapolation from a small sample size when pitchers don't have a book on him.

 

Guys tend to get called up when their swinging a hot bat, or an injury occurs. The former is for confidence. It wouldn't make sense to give a guy a taste of the bigs when he's struggling.

 

Slowly but surely pitchers learn tendencies. Baseball is a game of constant adjustment year to year, month to month, even game to game.

 

Pitchers had a taste of Albie's last year. They will attack his weaknesses. Ozzie will have to adjust. Simply to match his extrapolated numbers he will have to grow. 

 

As Ozzie has gone up each level he has gotten worse at each stop. This would suggest that he might be susceptible to quality off speed offerings. Or maybe that his eye is not so keen around the edges.

 

Im rooting for the kid, but the toughest time for a rookie isn't the jitters, it's when pitchers start attacking weak tendencies. I have little doubt he will not be above average in his career. But expecting it next year is a fool's errand that very rarely pays off, and when it does it's usually with a 1:1 k:bb ratio or the guy has some sort of grade that's remarkably close to 80. He has neither. He puts the bat on the ball and has speed. That doesn't make him Jose altuve. There is no guarantee of growth, but I hope he learns quickly.

 

 

I'm all about taming the hype trains, lol. I think when guys are talking about a potential Altuve, they're speaking of Altuve when he first broke in and Albies putting up familiar types of numbers. Will he do that? I honestly don't believe he reaches Altuve's early SB totals this year, and I tend to believe that Albies will not be Altuve...he'll just be Albies. 

 

Pitchers have a book, and they will adjust. The question is always how the rookies will adjust to the adjustments, and we simply won't know how Albies will adjust until we get to the end of this season. Maybe we're talking about a post-hype sleeper in 2019 or 2020...or maybe we see a burgeoning star this year. I don't believe he'll maintain his 2017 MLB k% in 2018...he's likely to K 100+ times judging by his AA-AAA numbers, but the walk rate he had in 2017 is repeatable. 

 

I believe the power is repeatable, also. He's a young kid who is maturing and getting stronger. I believe he'll be different from Altuve in that he'll show more power early on in his career. He hit 6 HR in 217 ABs in Atlanta last year, but I think that gets dialed back a bit. If he stays in the lineup and stays healthy and gets 575 ABs this year, I think 12 HR is certainly within his reach. He's a good baserunner, but has only touched 30 SBs once, so I don't see him getting there this year. Maybe one day, but I think 22-25 is more likely. He's slated to hit 2nd right now, and if he can managed a .275+ BA, then I think 90+ runs is very possible. 

 

For me, it all adds up to a kid who I like to produce .275-90-12-50-22. I believe those are numbers that are good and build in some rookie regression and adjustment to pitching adjustments, and I believe this is a year that can potentially be setting up a very nice career. Jmho. 

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44 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

For me, it all adds up to a kid who I like to produce .275-90-12-50-22. I believe those are numbers that are good and build in some rookie regression and adjustment to pitching adjustments, and I believe this is a year that can potentially be setting up a very nice career. Jmho. 

 

You're projection is pretty close to mine. I'm a little more bearish, I have him at 275-80/85-10-20. I hope he proves me wrong, then again I want him on my squad. If he starts out slow I'll be sure to trade for him. They're stacking babies near the top of their lineup... let's not project rbi totals for those Bravos lol.

 

PS: Altuve halved his k/bb rates compared to Albies. That's cause that guy can sting a ball anywhere its pitched.

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well dkrocka, now that some time has passed, I agree that my projection was generous, particularly the speed. That said, his game logs toward the end of 2017 are stuffed with steals. I suppose that stuck with me. If a player goes a full year and steals one base every four games, that's roughly  40 steals. Albies is fast and aggressive, I think 30 is well within reach. The hardest thing to predict is the power. He could hit 6, he could hit 20. 

 

I specifically said "glimmer of Altuve" to indicate a small amount, not to encourage a full on comparison. In the way that Andrew Benintendi is a bit like Larry Walker. 

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Albies is coming off a 2017 season where he debuted in the majors and did amazingly well,  super impressive considering he was just 20 years-old. I just want to show why Albies has gotten so much love this offseason from us fantasy nerds and professionals alike. Albies hit .286/.354/.456 with 6 HRs and 8 SBs in just 244 PAs, all good for a 112 wRC+. That came with an 8.6% walk rate which is roughly league average and a 14.8% strikeout rate which is above-average, showing that Albies handled himself very well in his first taste in the bigs. His .316 BAPIP was very reasonable, especially for someone with his kind of speed, so it's not like Albies was getting lucky to achieve this success.

Looking at his batted ball profile, 2017 stands out in a good way. It looks like Albies decided to change his launch angle in 2017, likely to tap into more of his power upside and he did just that. In 2016, Albies posted a 46.1% groundball rate at AA, and a 50% groundball rate at AAA. He also posted flyball rates of 32.6% and 29.3% at the same levels in 2016 respectively. That groundball profile works with someone like Albies who has plus speed, but Albies decided to make a change in 2017. In his return to AAA in 2017, Albies posted a 42.4% groundball rate and a 37.9% flyball rate which is a massive change. The result was that he hit more fly-balls, his HR/FB rate improved, and Albies hit more HRs in 97 games at AAA than he had previously throughout his whole minor league career. When he got to the Majors, he kept doing the same thing and hit 6 more HRs. Albies posted an 18.8% Line-drive rate, and 40.9% ground-ball rate, and a 40.3% fly-ball rate for the Braves and that's a pretty decent mix for BAPIP purposes. Albies stayed up the middle with his contact a lot with a high 35.3% mark, but that tells me that he was on time a lot at the plate. The other place Albies shines is in quality of contact as he posted a very strong 14.7% soft contact rate (which would have tied with Nelson Cruz for 29th best in MLB among qualified hitters) and a pretty solid 33.2% Hard Contact rate (which would have ranked 78th in MLB among qualified hitters, ahead of guys like Buster Posey, Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman). That is supported by a roughly average 87.31 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32) which is pretty impressive considering Albies is listed at 5 foot 9, 160 lbs. There's definitely 15-20 HR upside with those type of numbers, but I think somewhere between 10-15 HRs is fair for this year.

Let's take a look at Ozzie Albies' plate discipline numbers:

His out-of-zone swing% was 33.3%                                        MLB average is 30%
His zone swing % was 73.4%                                                  MLB average is 65%
His overall swing % was 51.4%                                               MLB average is 46%
His out-of-zone contact % was 71.8%                                   MLB average is 66%
His zone contact% was 84.8%                                                MLB average is 87%
His overall contact rate was 80%                                           MLB average is 80%
His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 45.3%    MLB average is 45%
His swinging-strike% was 10.3%                                            MLB average is 9.5%

As you can see, Albies is an aggressive hitter, swinging more often than average both inside and outside the strike zone. That is of concern as MLB pitchers will likely try and get him to hit pitches that Albies struggles to do much. His strike-zone eye wasn't terrible though which tells me has a solid eye and I expect Albies to lower his out-of-zone swing rate over the next few years. Good news is, his contact rate is very solid and overall graded out as league average on the nose. As a 20-year-old player in his first taste at the major league level, that's pretty darn impressive. His swinging-strike% was slightly below average, but it's not far from being average and again, I expect him to trim that with more experience. Overall, there's a lot to like here under the hood, and it should improve with more experience. I would expect a slight regression in his K% though for next year and perhaps a slight regression in his BAPIP too considering how often he makes contact outside the zone.

Speed has long been one of Albies biggest strengths as a prospect, with him receiving universally 60-70 grades. That has translated into pretty solid efficiency in the minors (30 for 43 in 2016, and 29 for 32 in 2017 split between AAA and MLB), and I expect the same to be the case in his first full season in majors. I think there's 30 SB upside in Albies, but I feel more comfortable projecting 20-25 this year which is very helpful for a lot of fantasy lineups.

Overall, I see a young middle infielder with tons of upside for fantasy, combining a very solid hit tool with some power and plus speed. .280/.340, 15 HRs and 25 SBs is the upside, but I feel better about projecting a line of .271/.328, with 12 HRs and 21 SBs. That's still valuable, and at his 153 NFBC ADP, you won't have to break the bank for him. I like him better than Paul Dejong who is going a couple of picks earlier.

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ADP of 153 on NFBC for redraft leagues, but in keeper leagues he is being valued as a top tier asset.  

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On 1/26/2018 at 12:24 PM, svdude said:

ADP of 153 on NFBC for redraft leagues, but in keeper leagues he is being valued as a top tier asset.  

Where are you seeing his ADP in keeper/dynasty leagues? 120ish?

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31 minutes ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Where are you seeing his ADP in keeper/dynasty leagues? 120ish?

 

That is just based on the asking price in leagues where I'm trying to acquire him.  No one wants to let go of him and see to be valuing him as a top 5 2B and top 50 long term asset.

 

 

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