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Ozzie Albies 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, AnonymousRob said:

He's obviously going to flirt with 50 homers this year.

 

No one is saying that.  Strawman

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Just now, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

No one is saying that.  Strawman

People are clearly high on this guy. Rightfully so. But when people are even saying they don't think he's going to have any real slump and are lumping him as a top 20 overall player, then yeah, that's basically what they're saying.

 

 

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Just now, AnonymousRob said:

People are clearly high on this guy. Rightfully so. But when people are even saying they don't think he's going to have any real slump and are lumping him as a top 20 overall player, then yeah, that's basically what they're saying.

 

 

20-30 could be top 20, especially with a good average and the spot he’s hitting in. I would hope no one is anticipating 50HR

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Just now, AnonymousRob said:

People are clearly high on this guy. Rightfully so. But when people are even saying they don't think he's going to have any real slump and are lumping him as a top 20 overall player, then yeah, that's basically what they're saying.

 

 

I said he wouldn't have *significant* slumps thanks to his elite speed.  30 ft/sec is elite.  That will help him beat out grounders, take the extra base, steal a base, etc.  

 

He's in the Top-30 right now in most leagues and he hasn't started stealing yet, something that's pretty rare for a player that does almost everything else well.

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What's the most HRs by a 165 lb. player?

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6 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

People are clearly high on this guy. Rightfully so. But when people are even saying they don't think he's going to have any real slump and are lumping him as a top 20 overall player, then yeah, that's basically what they're saying.

 

 

 

Yeah that is clearly translated to "he will hit around 50 HRs."

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6 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

People are clearly high on this guy. Rightfully so. But when people are even saying they don't think he's going to have any real slump and are lumping him as a top 20 overall player, then yeah, that's basically what they're saying.

 

 

 

While others  are promoting trading him for the ‘safer, more consistent’ Robinson Cano.

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3 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

What's the most HRs by a 165 lb. player?

 

Joe Morgan hit 27 as a 32-year old and was listed at 160 lbs. (5'7)

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1 minute ago, ToO_BaD said:

 

Yeah that is clearly translated to "he will hit around 50 HRs."

He's a borderline top 20 player right now. If he's going to stay at that level - or even step it up a touch - how do you believe it's going to happen? Either his home run rate needs to continue or...?

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1 minute ago, AnonymousRob said:

He's a borderline top 20 player right now. If he's going to stay at that level - or even step it up a touch - how do you believe it's going to happen? Either his home run rate needs to continue or...?

 

The steals are gonna come.

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1 minute ago, AnonymousRob said:

He's a borderline top 20 player right now. If he's going to stay at that level - or even step it up a touch - how do you believe it's going to happen? Either his home run rate needs to continue or...?

 

He hits 20-30 HRs, starts stealing some bases, and maintains a solid average

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1 minute ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

The steals are gonna come.

How many steals do you believe are going to come, and how many need to happen to cancel out the future decrease in homers?

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People are too tied to pre season rankings, and fail to appreciate how quickly the landscape can change. Look at Judge this time last year, was still sitting on some waivers as many were expecting a big slump.

          

 

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6 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

What's the most HRs by a 165 lb. player?

 

Kirby Puckett hit 31 at the age of 26 and he is listed as 5'8" and 178 lb's but that weight could have been towards the end of his career.

 

Mel Ott at the age of 20 hit 42 home runs and he was listed at 5'9" and 170 lbs. This was in 1929 though.

 

Only ones I could find that were kinda close within 5 minutes of research.

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11 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

What's the most HRs by a 165 lb. player?

7 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Joe Morgan hit 27 as a 32-year old and was listed at 160 lbs. (5'7)

 

Of course there's also Willie Mays who hit 50+ twice at 170 lbs.

 

Maybe 50 will happen....

 

(I'm joking)

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9 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

How many steals do you believe are going to come, and how many need to happen to cancel out the future decrease in homers?

 

Well coming into the season, he had a 8 SB / 1 CS stat line last season...in 57 games...so hypothetically, pushing around the 20 SB mark seemed like a fair bet this season...he's only 1-for-3 this season, having being caught 1 time stealing 2nd and 1 time stealing 3rd...

 

I've noticed that when certain players get off to slow base-stealing starts, the numbers tend to trend down. It's always scary to see someone with 15-25 SB potential start the season 1SB, 2CS. I'm hoping and praying that the next time he attempts a steal, he's not caught....because starting the season 1-for-4 on the base pads will not be good.

 

I think if he notches his 2nd steal on his next attempt, we'll have a legit shot to see him go for around 10-12 SB this season. But like I said, if his 4th swiped bag attempt turns into another "Caught Stealing", that will make his stats 1 SB / 3 CS, and ATL, whose already not a super SB happy team, might feel inclined to stop him from trying.

 

As for his HRs, with the hot start, I'm thinking he's now got a legit chance to reach 25 HRs. I think 17-20 is the safe bet, but if he maintains even 1/3 of the pace that he's at now, he should have no trouble getting to the 23-25 HR mark, which will be incredible considering he was only projected to hit 12-15 HR in most experts guides.

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7 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

How many steals do you believe are going to come, and how many need to happen to cancel out the future decrease in homers?

 

Mid you’re arguing so vehemently against the arbitrary ‘top 20’ rank, what exactly is it you expect from him? Is he going to fall off a cliff?

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1 minute ago, CORTEz said:

 

Well coming into the season, he had a 8 SB / 1 CS stat line last season...in 57 games...so hypothetically, pushing around the 20 SB mark seemed like a fair bet this season...he's only 1-for-3 this season, having being caught 1 time stealing 2nd and 1 time stealing 3rd...

 

I've noticed that when certain players get off to slow base-stealing starts, the numbers tend to trend down. It's always scary to see someone with 15-25 SB potential start the season 1SB, 2CS. I'm hoping and praying that the next time he attempts a steal, he's not caught....because starting the season 1-for-4 on the base pads will not be good.

 

I think if he notches his 2nd steal on his next attempt, we'll have a legit shot to see him go for around 10-12 SB this season. But like I said, if his 4th swiped bag attempt turns into another "Caught Stealing", that will make his stats 1 SB / 3 CS, and ATL, whose already not a super SB happy team, might feel inclined to stop him from trying.

 

He successfully stole third yesterday but the ump made a terrible judgment call and said Camargo interfered with the throw to third, so they made Ozzie go back to second. It was an egregious call.

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8 minutes ago, ranger danger said:

 

 

He successfully stole third yesterday but the ump made a terrible judgment call and said Camargo interfered with the throw to third, so they made Ozzie go back to second. It was an egregious call.

 

The call was actually that the ump interfered. He called it on himself and clarified that post-game.

But I agree he definitely would’ve had the SB regardless, got a great jump. 

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1 hour ago, The 7th Beatles said:

 

 

Who are these scrubs? Dale Murphy some guy named Chipper and some guy named Justin...good thing some no-talent kid erased their record!

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4 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

RBI double for Albies. Unreal.

 

I'll admit, it's gonna be hard for him to steal 20+ if he's always on 2nd or rounding the bases.

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I thought he hit a 2 run home run and a 2 run double. Why is it only showing as 3 RBI? 

 

 

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