Jump to content
Rotoworld.com Forums

Ozzie Albies 2018 Outlook


brockpapersizer

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 630
  • Created
  • Last Reply
6 minutes ago, motown magic said:

So what is that called ?

 

This kind of input, that does not appear in the box score, is appreciated.  And should be encouraged, not mocked.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's called adding context.  He looked good today.  Hard liner to the shortstop for one of his outs, narrowly missed that HR foul (ended up striking out), and lead off the inning against Brad Hand with a double.  Not sure what type of input people are looking for in this forum, if not context.  Has nothing to do with calling his results "unlucky" - rather that he doesn't look lost at the plate like some guys look when they're in a funk.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, ranger danger said:

It's called adding context.  He looked good today.  Hard liner to the shortstop for one of his outs, narrowly missed that HR foul (ended up striking out), and lead off the inning against Brad Hand with a double.  Not sure what type of input people are looking for in this forum, if not context.  Has nothing to do with calling his results "unlucky" - rather that he doesn't look lost at the plate like some guys look when they're in a funk.

Don't worry about it.  Any context, especially when a player is in a funk like Albies is in right now, is much appreciated.  It helps to know if we should be losing confidence in said player, even if it's only about one AB (not that we should be losing that much confidence yet).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not trying to make excuses, but he's faced some good pitching lately which doesn't help so much when trying to make adjustments. He's recently faced BOS/NYM/WAS/SD and coming up LAD/NYM. I don't really expect a big turn around this coming week but hopefully sooner than later he figures some things out. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, but what about the 3 pitchers he just faced in San Diego where he went 3-13?  Those were tough pitchers?  No.

 

I swear, fantasy baseball has turned into fantasy find the next excuse for my player.

 

The dude is lost.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
Season Monthly BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2018 Mar/Apr 5.5 % 18.9 % 0.29 .293 .341 .647 .988 .353 .298 25 10.0 .411 163
2018 May 6.0 % 16.4 % 0.36 .264 .306 .432 .738 .168 .283 16 0.4 .318 99
2018 Jun 3.4 % 13.8 % 0.25 .111 .172 .222 .395 .111 .130 0 -3.2 .178 5

 

Season Monthly GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% Pitches Balls Strikes
2018 Mar/Apr 0.73 18.3 % 34.4 % 47.3 % 11.4 % 20.5 % 15.6 % 0.0 % 45.7 % 28.7 % 25.5 % 20.2 % 48.9 % 30.9 % 483 165 318
2018 May 1.03 25.2 % 37.9 % 36.9 % 10.5 % 13.2 % 2.6 % 100.0 % 44.2 % 31.7 % 24.0 % 17.3 % 45.2 % 37.5 % 430 142 288
2018 Jun 0.89 26.1 % 34.8 % 39.1 % 11.1 % 0.0 % 12.5 % 0.0 % 39.1 % 26.1 % 34.8 % 17.4 % 34.8 % 47.8 % 102 31 71

 

 

K% down and Hard% up each month so far this season.

 

Small sample size, but BABIP down to .130 and 0.0% HR/FB so far in June.

 

If I didn't already own him everywhere, I'd be buying.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

While I've already said I rarely get to see his ABs, and I definitely believe the person who has said they watch a lot of his ABs and he's swinging at high pitches too much, but I had a feeling his BABIP would be really low since you can tell his K% had dropped since you rarely see a K in his game logs anymore.  Obviously it's not just bad luck and he does need to make adjustments, but to say he is lost is an extreme.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DemOrioles said:

Sorry, but what about the 3 pitchers he just faced in San Diego where he went 3-13?  Those were tough pitchers?  No.

 

I swear, fantasy baseball has turned into fantasy find the next excuse for my player.

 

The dude is lost.  

Fantasy baseball for you seems to be whining about players without trying to find any insight into what's happening with them.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, DemOrioles said:

Sorry, but what about the 3 pitchers he just faced in San Diego where he went 3-13?  Those were tough pitchers?  No.

 

I swear, fantasy baseball has turned into fantasy find the next excuse for my player.

 

The dude is lost.  

Even the “bums” who have a 5.50 ERA have good days or stretches where they do really well. They’re still among the absolute best in the world at what they do. They get beat up a lot because they’re probably on the lower end of the major league talent spectrum but they don’t get torched every time. Albies is only 21, with a grand total of 119 major league games under his belt. What he’s been able to do so far is nothing short of remarkable and when you factor in potential and almost guaranteed growth as a hitter considering what he’s already shown there shouldn’t be any complaining.

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, sweetcrackofthebat said:
Season Monthly BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
2018 Mar/Apr 5.5 % 18.9 % 0.29 .293 .341 .647 .988 .353 .298 25 10.0 .411 163
2018 May 6.0 % 16.4 % 0.36 .264 .306 .432 .738 .168 .283 16 0.4 .318 99
2018 Jun 3.4 % 13.8 % 0.25 .111 .172 .222 .395 .111 .130 0 -3.2 .178 5

 

Season Monthly GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB IFH% BUH% Pull% Cent% Oppo% Soft% Med% Hard% Pitches Balls Strikes
2018 Mar/Apr 0.73 18.3 % 34.4 % 47.3 % 11.4 % 20.5 % 15.6 % 0.0 % 45.7 % 28.7 % 25.5 % 20.2 % 48.9 % 30.9 % 483 165 318
2018 May 1.03 25.2 % 37.9 % 36.9 % 10.5 % 13.2 % 2.6 % 100.0 % 44.2 % 31.7 % 24.0 % 17.3 % 45.2 % 37.5 % 430 142 288
2018 Jun 0.89 26.1 % 34.8 % 39.1 % 11.1 % 0.0 % 12.5 % 0.0 % 39.1 % 26.1 % 34.8 % 17.4 % 34.8 % 47.8 % 102 31 71

 

 

K% down and Hard% up each month so far this season.

 

Small sample size, but BABIP down to .130 and 0.0% HR/FB so far in June.

 

If I didn't already own him everywhere, I'd be buying.

 

Has Albies' o-swing percentage increased from April?  That's always the first stat I'm interested in when a player is struggling.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

Has Albies' o-swing percentage increased from April?  That's always the first stat I'm interested in when a player is struggling.

Is it available on fangraphs? 

Its not under splits tab :s

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Marty Funkhouser said:

Even the “bums” who have a 5.50 ERA have good days or stretches where they do really well. They’re still among the absolute best in the world at what they do. They get beat up a lot because they’re probably on the lower end of the major league talent spectrum but they don’t get torched every time. Albies is only 21, with a grand total of 119 major league games under his belt. What he’s been able to do so far is nothing short of remarkable and when you factor in potential and almost guaranteed growth as a hitter considering what he’s already shown there shouldn’t be any complaining.

 

So basically all MLB pitching can be called "great pitching" when a player you have is slumping.  This makes no sense.  It's relative, even if they are all the best in the world.  Facing a Corey Kluber is much, much more difficult than some random 5.50 ERA starter for the Padres, even if that Padres pitcher is one of the best in the world.  When you are talking about MLB hitters (the best in the world), you have to differentiate between the level of pitchers they face, even if to a single A dude they'd all be unhittable.

 

He will get out of this slump but the the HR's in April were pretty lucky and unsustainable and probably aren't coming back.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

Has Albies' o-swing percentage increased from April?  That's always the first stat I'm interested in when a player is struggling.

    O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%
 
  March/April 34.4 % 78.2 % 52.8 % 72.9 % 83.5 % 79.5 % 42.0 % 63.0 % 10.8 %
  May 34.7 % 81.6 % 55.5 % 74.7 % 89.7 % 84.5 % 44.3 % 63.4 % 8.6 %
  June 50.0 % 80.0 % 61.8 % 77.4 % 87.5 % 82.5 % 39.2 % 65.5 % 10.8 %
  League Average 30.2 % 67.0 % 46.1 % 62.6 % 85.4 % 76.9 % 43.2 % 60.3 % 10.6 %

 

O-Swing% has spiked in the first week or so of June, but he's still making plenty of contact (O-Contact% of 74.3% for the season ranks in the top 20 in baseball, just behind Brantley and just ahead of Altuve). Pure speculation, but his hyper-aggressive approach of late seems to coincide with Acuna's injury- maybe he's trying to shoulder the ATL offense more than usual while his partner in crime is on the DL.

 

A little help from the BABIP gods and I think his batting average will level out around .275-.280. Albies is a career .300 hitter in the minors with plus-plus hit tool who has shown the ability to make adjustments at every level. It's really not even a matter of adjusting right now; line drives and flyballs are just finding a lot of gloves.

 

I really don't understand why there's so much noise in this thread. Maybe it's frustration over the lack of steals so far, which is why most folks drafted him, but even with this recent skid he's still a top 5 2B in standard leagues. This is a dynamic 21-year-old contributing in 5 categories on top of one of the best lineups in baseball, not bad for a mid-round pick.

 

Extrapolating is always a slippery slope, but with just over 500 PAs in the bigs under his belt, these are Ozzie's 162-game averages:

 

116 Runs, 27 HR, 86 RBI, 19 SB;  .272/.329/.482 

 

Not saying he's a lock to reach those numbers, but why not hang onto him and find out?

Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, sweetcrackofthebat said:

why not hang onto him and find out?

Phew, thanks. I was on the verge of dropping him!

 

Seriously though, people do constantly overreact. In April most people laughed at anyone who considered taking trade offers on Albies, thinking he was the second coming of Mike Trout at second base.

In June people are whining that hes a bum dragging down their fantasy team and wondering how they can get rid of him.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

This is quite a slump.  He’s batting .160 over his last 15 games.  One RBI, no HR, no steals.  .097 average in June.

i dont even care about average as much.  The no HR has been killer especially for being in a OBP and SLG league! Dude doesn't walk either. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd be happy if he just went back to the hitter he was last season.  That's actually what I traded for him last season in my keeper league.

 

I may be the only one complaining about his HR production, but I got him to be a .280-.290 hitter with plenty of runs and around 30 SBs.  The runs are about all I've gotten so far.

 

Still, I believe this is just a slump and it's possible once he figures it out, we may get more of the Albies we expected before the HR outburst.  That would still be fine with me.

Link to post
Share on other sites

And this is why 'selling high' is a thing. Now you have to hold onto him or 'sell low' - cause right now....

 

stock_arrow_bending_down_md_wm_v2.gif

 

I didn't draft him to hit homeruns and be a stud, so I figured holding him was fine as it was just gravy....but now I fear he is trying to be a different hitter because of his early season results.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, if it's any consolation, it can't get any worse than his last AB vs. Daniel Hudson.  He went around on two balls about chin high.  Albies complained about the 2nd call that they rung him up on for the strikeout.  I think he went around, but even if he didn't, he deserved to be rung up for even thinking about swinging at those two pitches from Hudson.  Pathetic...

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Well, if it's any consolation, it can't get any worse than his last AB vs. Daniel Hudson.  He went around on two balls about chin high.  Albies complained about the 2nd call that they rung him up on for the strikeout.  I think he went around, but even if he didn't, he deserved to be rung up for even thinking about swinging at those two pitches from Hudson.  Pathetic...

Yeah, I admittedly haven’t been able to watch many of his at bats but if that last one is any indication of what he’s doing at the plate right now it’s no wonder he’s struggling.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Marty Funkhouser said:

Yeah, I admittedly haven’t been able to watch many of his at bats but if that last one is any indication of what he’s doing at the plate right now it’s no wonder he’s struggling.

I haven't been able to watch many outside of a few of his tonight, but from what somebody has said on here, he has swung at high and inside pitches a ton of late.  The strikeouts were actually down up until the last few games, so this seems like it might have been a rock bottom like AB.  It was actually a halfway decent AB otherwise, working the count full, but oy vey did he ruin it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...