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Ozzie Albies 2018 Outlook


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1 minute ago, GJDHouse said:

Definitely want Albies in the 2 hole.  RBI opportunities, and doesn't really limit his run opportunity.  Plus he gets the protection of Freeman being immediately behind him.  I could see a scenario at some point in the future that puts Albies at 1, Acuna at 2, and Freeman at 3, but that won't happen right away IMO, and it will only happen when Acuna proves he deserves to be at the top of the lineup (which might not come til next year).

That is another setup that I wouldn't mind, but like you said, I don't see it happening right away or anything.  If Acuna becomes the player we all expect him to be, he'd still be fine lineup protection.  Acuna will probably bat in the bottom half of the lineup initially too.

 

Whatever is best for Albies' fantasy value is all I care about.  Right now, that's in the 2 hole.  Obviously he deserves a lot of credit for his spectacular start, but one has to wonder if he'd be doing quite this good if he didn't have Freeman behind him (at least getting quite as many XBHs).  No matter how good you are, great lineup protection can give you an extra boost in production.

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On 4/14/2018 at 3:56 PM, KilloWertz said:

 

Whatever is best for Albies' fantasy value is all I care about.  Right now, that's in the 2 hole.  Obviously he deserves a lot of credit for his spectacular start, but one has to wonder if he'd be doing quite this good if he didn't have Freeman behind him (at least getting quite as many XBHs).  No matter how good you are, great lineup protection can give you an extra boost in production.

 

This is a very, very fair point, and one I'd agree with. What's interesting though is that Albies is actually seeing a slightly lower % of pitches in the zone than league average. I think that's more because he's a free-swinger and the league is catching on to that, but Freeman's protection hasn't led to an increase in pitches in the zone thrown to Albies.

 

Ozzie's just hitting everything thrown his way. The average batter is making contact 61.4% of the time on pitches outside of the zone this year. Albies is hitting those pitches 77.8% of the time, which is good for 19th in the majors (right behind JRam, Altuve, Trout). Given Logan Forsythe and Ketel Marte are currently top 5 in o-contact %, it's not an exact science, but Ozzie's definitely smoking hot right now. 

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There is just something special in this kid. I can’t remember a guy who looks to be having this much fun and utilizing his insane quickness/speed to make plays other can’t. Braves homerism aside, don’t underestimate Ozzie! (Nobody predicted Lindor’s power surge when he came up, was a touted glove that figured to hit “enough” and steal some bags.)

When Acuna settles into the lineup, Ozzie will have even more protection. A line of .272/96/22/72/29 is my bold prediction for 2018. Switch hitting that comes natural from both sides is a huge advantage given the evolution of the bullpen. 

 

 

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Ok, now I'm going to actually criticize Albies for a moment.  I understand why he hasn't been running as much as some would like him to because of all the XBH, but he just hit a single to make it 1st and 3rd with 1 Out and he never ran.  He ended up getting picked off actually because he was sleeping on a 3-2 count.

 

He's been great and I plan on owning him for years to come in my keeper league, but damn, run Ozzie.

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Love his start, only question is will he run much now hes seemingly become an XBHitter. And as much as the power is promising, we all drafted for his speed which is much more scarce nowadays.

 

He should but it might take that Bravo offense to cool, as right now theyve no need to take chances on the bases to score runs.

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I got him as my starter way late and couldn't be happier - he has like 3 BBs to 14 Ks though- which is scary.  As long as he just keeps making contact for the most part though ..... I still want to sell high ....

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4 hours ago, jahweedum said:

I got him as my starter way late and couldn't be happier - he has like 3 BBs to 14 Ks though- which is scary.  As long as he just keeps making contact for the most part though ..... I still want to sell high ....

 

3BB to 14Ks and you want to sell?

 

How about hitting over .300? Or leading mlb in extra base hits? Or leading mlb in runs scored?

 

People are veey reactionary after 3 weeks of baseball.

 

Ozzie is 21 and he is keeping pace with what he did last year and their offense will only be better when acuna joins them.

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Yea it would take a lot for me to sell Albies, not saying I wouldn’t do it. Everybody is always on the block! But this kid looks the part, and soon the steals will start flowing in. Hell of a ride!

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4 hours ago, jahweedum said:

I got him as my starter way late and couldn't be happier - he has like 3 BBs to 14 Ks though- which is scary.  As long as he just keeps making contact for the most part though ..... I still want to sell high ....

 

That ratio may be scary, but it's still a 16.7% K% and a 3.6% BB%.  That strikeout rate is pretty damn impressive for a player in the strikeout heavy environment MLB currently is.  Also, his 3 walks on the season have come in his last 5 games. 

 

Then consider that he's only 21 and has been so aggressive in the early going (he's swung at 78.1% of pitches in the zone so far this year, 16th highest for qualified hitters) and 15 of his 25 hits have been for extra bases.

 

He set a goal for 200 hits this year and he's 1/8th of the way there on April 20th.  

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Love his start, only question is will he run much now hes seemingly become an XBHitter. And as much as the power is promising, we all drafted for his speed which is much more scarce nowadays.

 

He should but it might take that Bravo offense to cool, as right now theyve no need to take chances on the bases to score runs.

 

Only 10 of his 25 hits have been singles so far.  And only 3 walks (although they've all come in the last 5 games).  

 

That's 13 times where he's been on 1st, and I'm sure not all of those times have been a situation with 2nd base open.  

 

The steals will come.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

3BB to 14Ks and you want to sell?

 

How about hitting over .300? Or leading mlb in extra base hits? Or leading mlb in runs scored?

 

People are veey reactionary after 3 weeks of baseball.

That's the entire concept behind 'sell high'. I don't think it's an outrageous idea to explore what he could net in a trade. 

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

That's the entire concept behind 'sell high'. I don't think it's an outrageous idea to explore what he could net in a trade. 

 

Sell high on trout then.

 

You sell high when you dont thinkbthe player in question is a stud.

 

I think albies is a stud. Name the 2nd baseman not named altuve that you would take over albies?

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7 hours ago, jahweedum said:

I got him as my starter way late and couldn't be happier - he has like 3 BBs to 14 Ks though- which is scary.  As long as he just keeps making contact for the most part though ..... I still want to sell high ....

 

Here's the problem where you read too much into stats without watching the player.  He hits balls outside of the zone.  He has crazy good bat control.  He isn't getting lucky with grooved pitches in the zone.  Why take walks when you can hit pitches that aren't strikes?  Sure, this approach can be a little dangerous, but why does Altuve not walk much?  Because the dude hits.  There's no reason to wait for a walk when you can drive balls.  A good eye is an excellent way to tip the the scales in your favor of getting a good pitch.  However, if you're an awesome hitter, you don't necessarily need great pitches to hit.  He doesn't swing at "bad" pitches, he just doesn't need a grooved pitch to drive it.    

 

He is a special talent.  There will be adjustments made, but he went through a brutal period when he came up last year and then turned it on.  He isn't a "we bought him for steals" player.  I don't understand this at all.  He drives the ball and the power is not unsustainable.  30 homers?  Yeah, probably unlikely, but 18-20 should be expected, IMO.  If most of your hits are XB, steals will be harder to come by.  If your team is mashing, why steal?  

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26 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Sell high on trout then.

 

You sell high when you dont thinkbthe player in question is a stud.

 

I think albies is a stud. Name the 2nd baseman not named altuve that you would take over albies?

If we've reached the point of putting him in the Trout stud territory, that's a clear sign to explore your offers. 

 

He's in no way a guy you need to get off your team before his value craters. He's going to be great this year. I would rather have Dj LeMahieu over Ozzie and Dozier too. Probably a couple other guys, but I'm not thinking of everyone. But even if you'd rather have Albies that's fine. You should still explore offers. Maybe you take someone you like a bit less, but you seriously upgrade another position. 

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36 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Sell high on trout then.

 

You sell high when you dont thinkbthe player in question is a stud.

 

I think albies is a stud. Name the 2nd baseman not named altuve that you would take over albies?

If you asked any team the Braves have faced this year which Braves player has been the biggest problem I guarantee they will all say Ozzie Albies.  He is Altuve in the making.  Also once Acuna comes up and we add another power bat( And dump Markakis) The runs will start pouring in.

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