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brockpapersizer

Jose Martinez 2018 Outlook

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I mean even if "he earned every bit of it" last season, it can still be a complete fluke in that the production is in no way repeatable for Martinez.

 

All those other guys on the chart could repeat their expected wOBA from that list and people wouldn't be too surprised.

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26 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I mean even if "he earned every bit of it" last season, it can still be a complete fluke in that the production is in no way repeatable for Martinez.

 

All those other guys on the chart could repeat their expected wOBA from that list and people wouldn't be too surprised.

 

Yeah honestly the only other person on that list that would surprise me besides Jose Martinez is Judge.  

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

I mean even if "he earned every bit of it" last season, it can still be a complete fluke in that the production is in no way repeatable for Martinez.

 

All those other guys on the chart could repeat their expected wOBA from that list and people wouldn't be too surprised.

 

Absolutely. He was Barry Bonds vs lefties last year, not bad but not amazing against righties. He needs to improve there.

 

That being said , his ADP says last year was a fluke, so you’re playing fluke prices for a guy who earned a very elite xwoba.

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I saw him in person last year in Cincy. He absolutely roped a double off the top of the wall and hit an opposite field grand slam. The sound of the ball off the bat was incredible. I went to quite a few games this year and the sound of the ball off the bat was only comparable to Mike Trout, who I also saw this year. Martinez hits the ball very hard I'm all aboard this hype train. Give him some PT!

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1 hour ago, Big Tuna said:

i like what i see but is he going to get the playing time to produce?  

 

The fact that he can play OF and 1B helps a lot here. If he doesn’t begin as a starter with everyone healthy, if any of the three outfielders go down, or Carpenter or Gyorko (in which case Carpenter moves to 3B) go down, he starts. I think he’ll at least get a few starts a week all over the field, if he isn’t granted an everyday role right away.

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7 hours ago, Big Tuna said:

i like what i see but is he going to get the playing time to produce?  

 

Teams don’t sit better hitters for long, if at all. The fact that his position is somewhat muddy provides value because people will think “ what about the playing time “ I believe in the bat, so I just don’t think it matters, the team isn’t nearly stacked enough for me to be worried about Jose.

 

The only caveat I place here is if the Cardinals sign another corner bat. I actually think him and Duda would be such a ridiculous platoon. 

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Could be this year's Pham for the Cardinals. Problem is the playing time. I don't have confidence in Matheny giving him full playing time early on. Might take some time, which at that point probably isn't in play for standard league drafters. Definitely a guy to be monitored at this point, as any injury in the OF or CI spots should create an opening. Before that happens, not sure there is reason to go after him other than in deep leagues.

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

Could be this year's Pham for the Cardinals. Problem is the playing time. I don't have confidence in Matheny giving him full playing time early on. Might take some time, which at that point probably isn't in play for standard league drafters. Definitely a guy to be monitored at this point, as any injury in the OF or CI spots should create an opening. Before that happens, not sure there is reason to go after him other than in deep leagues.

 

this is more or less the right take right now, i think. in a mixed league it's hard to hold a guy who's not a full-time starter or at least a locked-in strong-side platoon guy on your roster; there are just so many other options. 

 

but he's a hardcore watch list / finger on the button guy for me, the moment the cards have an injury or smell like they're even thinking about committing to him. and in deeper leagues i want him pretty bad.

 

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9 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

this is more or less the right take right now, i think. in a mixed league it's hard to hold a guy who's not a full-time starter or at least a locked-in strong-side platoon guy on your roster; there are just so many other options. 

 

but he's a hardcore watch list / finger on the button guy for me, the moment the cards have an injury or smell like they're even thinking about committing to him. and in deeper leagues i want him pretty bad.

 

 

problem is that will be likely too late....if you have a bench slot or even a second utility spot i think he's draftable....with all the pre season hype i think he even goes a bit higher than late rd flyer....

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31 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

 

problem is that will be likely too late....if you have a bench slot or even a second utility spot i think he's draftable....with all the pre season hype i think he even goes a bit higher than late rd flyer....

 

yeah maybe. i think a lot depends on how the reports and manager quotes about his playing time situation are sounding once we get closer to spring training and draft time.

 

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Creeping toward over hype territory. 

 

Yea the guy was incredible but it wasn't for a long stretch.

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I feel as if he's probably still not going late in drafts and the fact that he's not perceived as a locked in starter will continue to provide a discount until that happens. 

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ZiPS has him producing a .280/.330/.430 type of line with 11 HR and 6 SB in 400 plate appearances. He was a monster in small sample size last year, but he's also just 1 year removed from an equally unimpressive wRC+ of 95 as a 27 year old in AAA.

 

Unless you are in an NL only or some other monster deep league, this guy will be on 100% of waivers all season. 

 

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Probably but the HR total is low given 400 plate appearances in real life. If dude is hit .280 its coming with some pop is all I am saying

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Longtime Cardinals beat writer Rick Hummel's quick take in response to a question in a chat today:

 

"I would like to see Martinez get 400 at-bats. Some of this depends on Carpenter and Gyorko, though  If the latter two are healthy and producing, Martinez will have to hit to play because he is not a strong defender at first."

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23 minutes ago, Caelum said:

Longtime Cardinals beat writer Rick Hummel's quick take in response to a question in a chat today:

 

"I would like to see Martinez get 400 at-bats. Some of this depends on Carpenter and Gyorko, though  If the latter two are healthy and producing, Martinez will have to hit to play because he is not a strong defender at first."

 

Martinez will hit 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Martinez will hit 

 

Agreed.

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Jose Martinez is coming off a breakout 2017 season where at 28, he hit .309/.379/.518 with 14 HRs and 4 SBs in just 307 PAs. He did so while posting strong 10.4% walk rates and a roughly average 19.5% strikeout rate. All told, Martinez posted a very impressive 135 wRC+ in his first extended run at the majors. At first glance, his .350 BAPIP seems high and likely to regress, but when we look at his Batted Ball figures, you'll see that he's likely to be a guy that produces a high BAPIP so I would suggest he can be a positive value in terms of Batting average going into next year.

So throughout Martinez's minor league career, he's consistently posted very high groundball rates (50%+) which in combination with a plus hit tool, he was consistently able to produce strong batting averages. That's a great skillset, but as a big dude (6 foot 6, 215 lbs) that played Corner OF and 1B, the lack of power was a problem at those positions. You can see that in 2016, upon joining the Cardinals, he made a change to add more loft to his launch angle and hopefully tap into more of his raw power. In 2015 with the Royals AAA team, he posted a 52.3% ground-ball rate and a 27% fly-ball rate. In 2016 with the Cardinals AAA club, he posted a 42.1% ground-ball rate and a 35.6% flyball rate which is a huge change. To @EmbargoLifted above who questioned that 95 wRC+ in 2016 with the Cardinals AAA team, I want to point out how difficult it would be to change your swing mid-season so I'm giving him a break on that one. On to 2017, he missed some time at the beginning of the year to a groin strain, but he made his major league debut and continued to execute his swing with the improved launch angle. His 2017 figures were a 26.6% Line-drive rate (which really drove his BAPIP as line-drives have the best chance of turning into a hit of all batted ball outcomes), a 42.1% groundball rate, and a 31.3% fly-ball rate. That's a very solid batted ball mix and supports a high BAPIP. That's further supported by an all fields approach at the plate making him a guy who would be difficult to shift against. Where Martinez really stands out is his quality of contact. Martinez posted a 37.2% Hard Contact rate which ranked 60th in the majors among those with at least 300 PAs, ahead of names like Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Nolan Arenado, and Josh Donaldson. That Hard contact is supported by a well above-average 90.87 MPH average exit velocity (MLB average is 87.32) which ranked in a tie for 19th best in the majors with Marcell Ozuna and JD Martinez, ahead of names like Bryce Harper and Carlos Correa, and Josh Donaldson among others. Martinez can definitely sting the ball with authority! Marinez also posted a respectable 17.7% soft contact rate. Also want to point out that Martinez CRUSHES left-handed pitchers, to the tune of a .407/.493/.847 line which was good for a ridiculous 240 wRC+ in 2017.

Let's take a look at Jose Martinez's plate discipline numbers from last year:

His out-of-zone swing% was 26.6%                                       MLB average is 30%
His zone swing % was 59.3%                                                  MLB average is 65%
His overall swing % was 41.5%                                               MLB average is 46%
His out-of-zone contact % was 69.4%                                   MLB average is 66%
His zone contact% was 86.6%                                                MLB average is 87%
His overall contact rate was 80.6%                                        MLB average is 80%
His % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 45.5%    MLB average is 45%
His swinging-strike% was 8%                                                  MLB average is 9.5%
 

As you can see, Martinez is a very patient hitter, swinging far less than average against pitches both inside and outside the zone. His contact skills are very strong, both inside the zone and outside and his swinging-strike rate is well above average which tells me he doesn't get fooled very often. The patience forces pitchers to come to him, and should help him find more mistakes than the average hitter, and with those strong contact skills and raw power plus the elevated launch angle, he looks to be a force at the major league level. There's no apparent weakness under the hood.

Overall, Martinez looks like a very strong hitter! He combines a plus hit tool with lots of raw power, a more elevated launch angle that helps him tap into that power more often, a great eye at the plate and a patient approach. All I see him missing is a chance for everyday at-bats. If he can find them, I think he's a must add with the upside to be a .290 hitter with 25 HRs. As of this moment, roster-resource has him as the starting `1st baseman (with Carpenter at 3rd and Gyorko on the bench) but I'm not sure that will be the case so I think you have to bump him down a little with the playing time uncertainty. For 2018, I'll project Martinez for .282/.361 with 18 HRs and 4 SBs in 450 PAs.

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Garlando that was some great great stuff. 

 it makes you think.... every year there are guys who emerge, who don't necessarily look the part when you watch them play... but sooner or later they prove that they are here to stay, that they are very good players.

 

I'm thinking of guys who, aesthetically, are a bit unconventional. I think Goldschmidt was projected as a Tyler-White kind of platoon player. JD Martinez is another one.. even today his whole style is atypical, the hand placement, the stride, the followthrough.  but the results don't lie. 

 

The more I learn about Jose Martinez, the more I'm buying in. Doesn't hurt that he has 1B+OF eligibility in most leagues. And as of now, he can be snagged as a bench player. 

 

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On 11/27/2017 at 10:58 AM, wily mo said:

brock posted this link on the tail end of jose magnifico's 2017 thread, since the article came out in mid september before the season ended, but i'm going to drop it again here in case people missed it

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/have-the-cardinals-found-the-new-j-d-martinez/

 

 

 

The last mlb stat cast podcast talked about him for over 5 minutes, good stuff. He was basically Bonds against lefties last year but had no idea his xwoba vs righties was 370. So he might have a lot less of a platoon issue than I had originally thought !

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