Impeccable

Off-season Closer Thread 2017/18

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

So do you think that if Kimbrel blew his arm out tomorrow, the Sox are handing the job to a guy that has pitched a total of 9 innings in the last two seasons?  I mean maybe they do, but I also wouldn't be shocked if it's someone else.  Just because Smith was traded for to play a setup role 2 years ago doesn't necessarily mean he's next in line, so I don't think any site that doubts that is one that hasn't done their homework.  

 

The reality is it probably doesn't matter who is next in line - if Kimbrel had a major injury, and the Sox are going for it this year, they likely bring in outside help either through trade or someone like Holland.  

 

I think Smith is the next best guy in theory.  

 

But in also think there's something to your comment about them handing the job right away to a guy that only has limited pitching experience period lately. 

 

How's he looked this spring?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

 

Neither of these sources have been watching Smith pitch this spring nor listening to the Red Sox announcers and interviews etc.  Smith looked absolutely totally nasty this spring.  So yeah I'd say he is next up because all the talk and stuff around camp broadcast this season on NESN has said that too.

 

Thank you sir.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dannyusf said:

Why you never pay for saves. 

 

Leone, Boxberger, Jones then pick up people like Bedrosian, Ziegler, Greene and you are now competitive every week. 

 

I think this year is a perfect position for Boxberger as a bounce-back candidate. 

 

I dunno about Jones.   While his skills are superior to Soria's, it's easy to foresee Soria gaining the majority of the 1st half opps to boost his trade value.   

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is going to come off kind of bench coachy, but in general how do you guys prioritize low upside guys with more secure roles vs higher upside plays with a shot at the role? 

 

I own no shares in any of these guys, but it was interesting to see guys like Jones and Bradley/Boxberger who have no secure role get drafted before guys like Ziegler and Rodney. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

This is going to come off kind of bench coachy, but in general how do you guys prioritize low upside guys with more secure roles vs higher upside plays with a shot at the role? 

 

I own no shares in any of these guys, but it was interesting to see guys like Jones and Bradley/Boxberger who have no secure role get drafted before guys like Ziegler and Rodney. 

I own Ziegler and I hate him....but I would still rather have him over a guy like Bedrosian. At least for now. Closers pop out of no where like crazy through out the year, so I would just rather get the saves now and see who becomes available later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

This is going to come off kind of bench coachy, but in general how do you guys prioritize low upside guys with more secure roles vs higher upside plays with a shot at the role? 

 

I own no shares in any of these guys, but it was interesting to see guys like Jones and Bradley/Boxberger who have no secure role get drafted before guys like Ziegler and Rodney. 

 

Invest in talent.

 

You're basically asking the question of Vizcaino vs. Minter.

The answer depends if its Roto vs. H2H.

 

Either way, guys like Minter are cheap in most leagues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It officially feels like it’s fantasy baseball season when I find myself refreshing the Rotoworld closer thread every 30 minutes hoping to vulture a closer before the masses get news. Thanks to all in advance who contribute news and content to this thread throughout the season.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

This is going to come off kind of bench coachy, but in general how do you guys prioritize low upside guys with more secure roles vs higher upside plays with a shot at the role? 

 

I own no shares in any of these guys, but it was interesting to see guys like Jones and Bradley/Boxberger who have no secure role get drafted before guys like Ziegler and Rodney. 

 

I was seeing Bradley over-drafted because everyone just assumed earlier in the off season that he would get the closer gig, but other than that I've generally been seeing Rodney and Ziegler going in drafts before Jones or Boxberger.  

 

That said, I think how you prioritize them depends on your league and roster construction.  Ziegler and Rodney might be more sure-fire guys to start the season as closers, but you know their ratios will likely hurt you, and they don't K a lot.  They really only help you in one category, and worst case they are so bad they get removed from the job anyway.  

 

You really just have to balance what you want between role and talent, but the basic idea of most in this thread is that saves can be found throughout the year (see Boxberger right now), so you likely don't need to waste a draft pick on a scrub like Rodney.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Ix a we are qq free sqfw see after Whee awe f we own Ziegler and I hate him....but I would still rather have him over a guy like Bedrosian. At least for now. Closers pop out of no where like crazy through out the year, so I would just rather get the saves now and see who becomes available later.

 

56 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Invest in talent.

 

You're basically asking the question of Vizcaino vs. Minter.

The answer depends if its Roto vs. H2H.

 

Either way, guys like Minter are cheap in most leagues.

 

Interesting that the 2 first responses are (kind of) opposite. Yes settings plays into it absolutely. I've always found that I'm biased towards the higher talent guys, but that may be because I'm more on the ball when it comes to grabbing closers than the rest of my league. It means I end up with a guy like Bedrosian that list the gig and miss out of 40 SV years from guys like Rodney. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Welp - swing and a miss on Hirano.

 

@Patrick Bateman - my only issue with how you and @handyandy86 interpreted the tea leaves last night was that Bradley was brought in first.  Typically we do see the closer brought into games earlier to face tougher hitters, but that would've pointed to Bradley, not Boxberger.  Also, all the Parker speculation in LAA is driven by the fact that he pitched the 9th the other night.

 

I guess the truth is until a manager says it or actually gives the guy the ball in the 9th, we're all throwing darts.  We've not reached lineup card searches on twitter levels of desperation yet, but we're close.  We'll get there.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

This is going to come off kind of bench coachy, but in general how do you guys prioritize low upside guys with more secure roles vs higher upside plays with a shot at the role? 

 

I own no shares in any of these guys, but it was interesting to see guys like Jones and Bradley/Boxberger who have no secure role get drafted before guys like Ziegler and Rodney. 

 

I actually punted closers in my 12 team H2H and went with high upside/high K relievers. Guys like Chris Devenski, Josh Hader, Carl Edwards Jr., and Kyle Barraclough/Drew Steckenrider are guys that even if they are not closers they are still giving you crazy value with their K's and they keep your ratios down as well. They also have the added benefit of sliding right into the closer role if the guy ahead of them gets hurt or turns into a dumpster fire, which in my 8 years of playing fantasy baseball I've seen happen every single season. I'd say at least a third of the guys that have the role right now will not be the closer by the All-Star Break.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kimbrell pitched in the 5th on Sunday. Chapman came in the 8th 3/21. I wouldn't put much stock into how managers use their pen in the spring.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

 

Interesting that the 2 first responses are (kind of) opposite. Yes settings plays into it absolutely. I've always found that I'm biased towards the higher talent guys, but that may be because I'm more on the ball when it comes to grabbing closers than the rest of my league. It means I end up with a guy like Bedrosian that list the gig and miss out of 40 SV years from guys like Rodney. 

It also depends on your league and the people in it. My league is H2H, 12 teams, and usually if you have 3 or more closers, you're a pretty good bet to win saves that week. That's why I like to have at least 3 closers (preferably 4, even if a couple are bottom end ones) so that I take down the category against teams with 1-2 closers and can still stay competitive with those teams that have 3 really good ones or those that have 4 closers as well. That's why guys like Bedrosian (at least right now) and Bradley just don't hold as much value to me because they aren't getting saves. Yes, they could get the job later in the year, but I want to stay competitive in the saves category now and then if better closers pop up during the year, I can still pick them up and it gives me trade options with teams that don't have closers. You can also moniter your own closers to see if they lose the job and you'll know who exactly to pick up if they do. It just opens up things IMO rather than having to wait for someone to lose their job and punting the saves category for the time being. I would rather have starting pitchers with potential on my roster rather than a Bradley or Bedrock, who may not get saves for who knows how long.

 

But that's just me. I'm sure someone can argue against my strategy perfectly fine.

Edited by hangin n wangin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Welp - swing and a miss on Hirano.

 

@Patrick Bateman - my only issue with how you and @handyandy86 interpreted the tea leaves last night was that Bradley was brought in first.  Typically we do see the closer brought into games earlier to face tougher hitters, but that would've pointed to Bradley, not Boxberger.  Also, all the Parker speculation in LAA is driven by the fact that he pitched the 9th the other night.

 

I guess the truth is until a manager says it or actually gives the guy the ball in the 9th, we're all throwing darts.  We've not reached lineup card searches on twitter levels of desperation yet, but we're close.  We'll get there.

 

I was just trying to look at the sum of all the moving parts in the situation.  Regardless of the order they were used, we've heard Lovullo say he likes Bradley in that fireman role, and it's hard to think he'd hand the gig to Hirano after such a bad spring just because he gets out a couple minor leaguers in the 9th inning.  

 

I also find it hard to believe in the Parker hype from last night based on pitching the 9th - he's been ridiculously terrible this spring, and gave up another HR last night. His spring has been so bad, he gave up a HR last night and it LOWERED his ERA!  I know we're talking about Scoscia here, but that would be low for even him to still throw Parker out there in the 9th on Opening Day.  

 

That's a situation I'm staying further away from, though.  Scoscia has proven to be unpredictable, and I'm not convinced any of the arms in that bullpen can really run away with the job to begin with.  Obviously Bedrosian seems to make the most sense from a talent standpoint, but it's yet to be seen if Scoscia will put the trust in him, or if he can stay healthy, for an extended period of time.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

This is going to come off kind of bench coachy, but in general how do you guys prioritize low upside guys with more secure roles vs higher upside plays with a shot at the role? 

 

I own no shares in any of these guys, but it was interesting to see guys like Jones and Bradley/Boxberger who have no secure role get drafted before guys like Ziegler and Rodney. 

 This is the essence of the old SAGNOF. Every story is different, too many variables to really box these guys into categories.  Get to know the RIGHT NOW info on a teams bullpen as much as you can.  But really,  welcome to the great chase

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, handyandy86 said:

 

I was just trying to look at the sum of all the moving parts in the situation.  Regardless of the order they were used, we've heard Lovullo say he likes Bradley in that fireman role, and it's hard to think he'd hand the gig to Hirano after such a bad spring just because he gets out a couple minor leaguers in the 9th inning.  

 

I also find it hard to believe in the Parker hype from last night based on pitching the 9th - he's been ridiculously terrible this spring, and gave up another HR last night. His spring has been so bad, he gave up a HR last night and it LOWERED his ERA!  I know we're talking about Scoscia here, but that would be low for even him to still throw Parker out there in the 9th on Opening Day.  

 

That's a situation I'm staying further away from, though.  Scoscia has proven to be unpredictable, and I'm not convinced any of the arms in that bullpen can really run away with the job to begin with.  Obviously Bedrosian seems to make the most sense from a talent standpoint, but it's yet to be seen if Scoscia will put the trust in him, or if he can stay healthy, for an extended period of time.

As an Angel fan, I can never figure out Scisocia. He may even go with Jim Johnson if Parker struggles, just because he's a veteran and has done it before.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would you guys agree that Box shot up a tier above Greene/Leone/Jones if only b/c he's the named closer on a better team than Greene/Leone, and not in a committee like Jones?

Edited by ragrag

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, ragrag said:

Would you guys agree that Box shot up a tier above Greene/Leone/Jones if only b/c he's the named closer on a better team than Greene/Leone, and not in a committee like Jones?

john c reilly yes GIF

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ragrag said:

Would you guys agree that Box shot up a tier above Greene/Leone/Jones if only b/c he's the named closer on a better team than Greene/Leone, and not in a timeshare like Jones?

 

100% agree that he shoots up above that tier. Leone is unproven and Gregerson and Lyons are viable alternatives once healthy. Nate Jones not guaranteed the role with Soria there. Greene has a firm hold on the job now, but just isn't very talented.

 

Boxberger has all of the closer checkmarks:

 

1: Unquestioned closer to start year.

2: No elite alternatives (Bradley is locked in the fireman role, Hirano won't be this until he shows consistent results in U.S., still hasn't happened).

3. High K potential.

4. Closer experience.

5. Good team should ensure ample opportunities.

6. Humidor at Chase Field should improve his numbers from last year.

 

Only concern is health, which at the cost Boxberger is at, is well worth the risk.

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have Archie Bradley, since Box got the job I am holding Bradley for the time being. Box has had cronic injury issues and had arm soreness as recently as early March.

 

I am now adding Addison Reed as my other handcuff. Fernando Rodney is 41 and has allowed 6 runs in 7 ip this spring. He does have a K per inning and only 3 BB's.  I'm taking the chance on him blowing it very soon, let alone at some point relatively soon. I would go with Carl Edwards Jr because Morrow is the most injury prone player in baseball BUT I can not be 100% positive he would get save opps with Cisek around. In 12 team/deeper leagues, saves are opportunity > talent, talent is the luxury. I am in H2H categories, and while CJ would be better for ratios than Reed, the upgrade form a 9.0 Kp9 to a 10.6 is very, very marginal and a luxury. The relative certainly of Reed is more valuable than CJ's is as the better player. Saves are more of a need in my format than marginal talent upgrades with the small amount of IP. 

 

tldr: I think it's only a matter of time before Rodney and Morrow give someone else save opportunities. Familia Ramos situation as well. Holding Bradley for short term 

Edited by loro1991

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

I have Archie Bradley, since Box got the job I am holding Bradley for the time being. Box has had cronic injury issues and had arm soreness as recently as early March.

 

I am now adding Addison Reed as my other handcuff. Fernando Rodney is 41 and has allowed 6 runs in 7 ip this spring. He does have a K per inning and only 3 BB's.  I'm taking the chance on him blowing it very soon, let alone at some point relatively soon. I would go with Carl Edwards Jr because Morrow is the most injury prone player in baseball BUT I can not be 100% positive he would get save opps with Cisek around. Sometimes saves are opportunity > talent, contradicting what someone else said earlier in this thread. I am in H2H categories, and while CJ would be better for ratios than Reed, the upgrade form a 9.0 Kp9 to a 10.6 is very, very marginal and a luxury. Saves are more of a need in my format than marginal talent upgrades with the small amount of IP. 

 

tldr: I think it's only a matter of time before Rodney and Morrow give someone else save opportunities. Familia Ramos situation as well. Holding Bradley for short term 

 

Holding Bradley during the year is smart, but not for save chances. If Boxberger falters I would think Hirano gets next shot. If they wanted to put Bradley in as closer he would already be there. I just don't see them changing it up. Out of Boxberger, Hirano, and even Andrew Chafin someone will end up being good, and there will be no urgency to move Bradley out of the fireman role.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Holding Bradley during the year is smart, but not for save chances. If Boxberger falters I would think Hirano gets next shot. If they wanted to put Bradley in as closer he would already be there. I just don't see them changing it up. Out of Boxberger, Hirano, and even Andrew Chafin someone will end up being good, and there will be no urgency to move Bradley out of the fireman role.

 

I agree with you and that's why I am considering Bradley a short term/fluid hold. I expect to drop him but the ratio's he could offer while Boxberger is just getting off the ground still make him a reasonable handcuff. Boxberger's servere injury issues, recent arm soreness along with him building up the strength to go back to back nights make me less than 100% confident in him, closer gigs are most in the air until he has really cemented himself. Otherwise I agree with you. I will be following Ramos, Dyson and CJ/Cisek very closely and sub one of them for Bradley asap. I think Melancon is damaged goods and is in red flag territory with Morrow. Morrow being a diabetic has a big correlation with him being injured so often.

I asked insideinjury about the Morrow injury/diabetes correlation and they said 

 

"The simple answer is yes, Type I diabetes does increase a player's injury risk. There are plenty of medical studies on why exactly this is the case (it could be anything from limited blood supply to the capillaries to increased lipids that break down the structure of tendons.) So while Morrow has done a good job managing his diabetes while playing baseball, it is a contributing factor to his lengthy injury history."

Edited by loro1991

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.