kujoking7

Matt Olson 2018 Outlook

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45 minutes ago, svtballa said:

What are you guys expecting for the ROS??

 

If healthy, a lot of HRs with a low BA. 

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7 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

If healthy, a lot of HRs with a low BA. 

.235 and a HR every 15 ABs

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Was looking over his Statcast/batted ball data the other day and thinking Olson looked like a good buy low. His exit velocity and hard contact rates are elite, and his slugging % should be a lot higher.

 

That buy low window might be closing quickly though after today.

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7 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Was looking over his Statcast/batted ball data the other day and thinking Olson looked like a good buy low. His exit velocity and hard contact rates are elite, and his slugging % should be a lot higher.

 

That buy low window might be closing quickly though after today.

 

Dont worry his hard contact related stats have been elite all year, so he will go on a homer binge for a couple games and then proceed to do absolutely nothing for 2-3 weeks. Rinse and repeat. Wait a week when he cools back down and you’re good. It’s kind of crazy he’s on pace for around a 40/100/100 season because it feels like he’s done next to nothing with how streaky he is. Just have to ride the wave and you’ll get the counting stats when all is said and done. 

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Ok seriously,  we all know what he did last september.  I'll come clean and say i was one of those who bought and reached a little for him on draft day...only to get disappointed.  [Removed Cool Story] 

 

Does anyone believe he will have a run again like last september? 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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People panic a lot. Olson was robbed of a hit by Segura last night and took another ball to the wall. He is still just 23 years old and has worked to adjust on 2-strike counts. I was expecting close to 40 homers this year, but he'll be more on the 30 side. I still think he can get into the mid 30s, but he needs to get on a roll. Right now he's not in a great spot in the As lineup as he almost always is hitting behind K.Davis. Meanwhile, Steve Piscotty is the type of player hitting behind him. Not an easy thing, but Oakland is playing well and winning. 

 

I almost always start him with confidence, though I may give him the night off against Oh' Canada tonight, though I could see him getting the night off for real anyway. 

 

If you hang onto Olson in dynasty he will have a few seasons coming up pushing 50 homers I think. His power is immense. 

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Unfortunately he's just been consistently mediocre outside of June where he smacked 9 homers. He's been borderline useless in July and August. But I keep trotting him out there because the one time I bench him he goes yard...his hard hit rate has dropped a bunch the last month and a half. Hopefully he wakes up and does something down the stretch.

 

I feel like this guy is gonna develop like his fellow Oakland outfielder Khris Davis. After the down year he will probably go fairly cheap next year and is worth a gamble for late power and should eventually start putting up some 40 homer seasons with a better BB% than Davis. He's definitely getting unlucky this year, just been painful to own lately with him doing a whole lot of nothing. He should be a .500+ slugger, if he got his OPS up over 800 I'd be a lot more patient with him but he's basically playing at a borderline WW fodder level. 

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His stats haven’t been great but he is still highly ranked in fantasy in both leagues that I own him, mostly because of the good counting stats. That’s why it is hard for me to drop him.

 

As said earlier, his soft contact has gone way up in the last month so that’s not promising. He struggled when he was nailing the ball so if he isn’t hitting hard then it’s going to be a rough  ride.

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I feel like he's faced a lot of lefties over the past few weeks, so that hasn't helped him.  He definitely struggles seeing the ball against lefties.

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5 hours ago, KrunK said:

 he's basically playing at a borderline WW fodder level. 

 

Well that depends on the league. He's currently 120th on Yahoo's player rater, and I'm in one league that starts 168 batters (plus 96 pitchers) and another that starts 154 batters , so he's definitely not borderline WW fodder in either of my leagues. If he's cut, his owner will not find anyone better sitting out there to replace him. 

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Well that depends on the league. He's currently 120th on Yahoo's player rater, and I'm in one league that starts 168 batters (plus 96 pitchers) and another that starts 154 batters , so he's definitely not borderline WW fodder in either of my leagues. If he's cut, his owner will not find anyone better sitting out there to replace him. 

 

Yeah he's at 187 in my yahoo league, right on the cusp of being drop worthy in my league. I won't ditch him but I feel like outside of that big two weeks stretch in June he has done a whole lot of nothing. Wish yahoo had split stats for player rankings because I'd be willing to bet outside of that two week stretch he has been pretty damn bad. Not going to find better HR potential on the WW at this point in the year so I will roll with him and hope he heats up.

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