IlliniGuy76

Cody Bellinger 2018 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, NyMetsfan5 said:

This is a classic example of regression. This guy isn’t as good as the season he had last year. With a years worth of film for teams to watch they’ll expose the multiple holes in his swing big time. 

Teams already started to last year and he went through multiple adjustment phases to catch up with what the league was doing to him. This was actually one of the MOST impressive things from his body of work in 2017 for me. The kid was 21 years old and put up incredible stats while missing about a month's worth of ABs wasting away in the minors to start the year. He has top prospect pedigree too so it's not like he just blew up out of nowhere and caught everyone by surprise. That being said, I do worry about his average a bit this season as he continues to become a big league hitter (he will only be 22..) I think he will easily hit 35hr and steal 10-15 bags though which plays as long as he hits over .230 which I am quite confident he will. If he keeps reducing his K rate as he was doing at the end of last year (minus the awful playoff run), i think he could climb into 1st round conversation for 2019. If he goes .285/45/15 with 100+ runs and RBIs, or something around there, it's going to be hard to pass him up!

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[ Comments removed. Guys, I know there's a history here, but if someone's making an argument about a player and you turn it into an argument about the poster, it's not going to end well.  If you think someone's argument is weak, respond with a better argument, not personal attacks.  And if you think they're trolling, don't give them what they want. ]

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8 hours ago, NyMetsfan5 said:

This is a classic example of regression. This guy isn’t as good as the season he had last year. With a years worth of film for teams to watch they’ll expose the multiple holes in his swing big time. 

 

You said he isn't as good as he showed last season. What specifics do you use to come up with that opinion? Aside from the general fantasy-speak of regression and isn't-as-good and holes-in-his-swing, what can you specifically point to, to justify your stance? 

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It's a standard position to say that a young player can't repeat an exceptional season. It is often true. If you said that about every good rookie you'd likely be right about 65% of the time.
Bellinger exceeded most of the small sample size arguments. MLB has complete video and the analytics departments know his tendencies. Despite this, he successfully beat the shift, lowered is K% in the 2nd half, raised his walk rate, had a fairly steady babip right about league average, and he doesn't even have a L/R split. I'd bid with confidence.

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

You said he isn't as good as he showed last season. What specifics do you use to come up with that opinion? Aside from the general fantasy-speak of regression and isn't-as-good and holes-in-his-swing, what can you specifically point to, to justify your stance? 

Listen buddy. I’ve watched almost every one of his at bats from last season so this is based off the eye test. Something that can’t be taught or seen by the bogus numbers. I saw pitchers making huge adjustments. Specifically pitching him more inside where his uppercut swing can’t catch up as fast. And if I’m aware of this just think what mlb scouts are seeing    This dude is going to take a couple steps back this year 

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Postseason 64 AB with 29k and 3 walks. Something had changed from the regular season. Better pitching? Still someone noticed something and those pitchers executed to take advantage.

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13 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Postseason 64 AB with 29k and 3 walks. Something had changed from the regular season. Better pitching? Still someone noticed something and those pitchers executed to take advantage.

This is definitely something I’d consider but I think it already is factored in his price. It’s a fairly small sample size (64 AB) and he was what, 21? On the biggest stage in the sport?

 

We also should remember that the Dodgers have coaches and scouts as well. Cody knows where pitchers were throwing and how they were getting him out. He will adjust too like he showed countless times throughout the regular season. He’s prone to struggles and valleys as every young power hitter is, but his peaks are going to be massive.

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41 minutes ago, NyMetsfan5 said:

Listen buddy. I’ve watched almost every one of his at bats from last season so this is based off the eye test. Something that can’t be taught or seen by the bogus numbers. I saw pitchers making huge adjustments. Specifically pitching him more inside where his uppercut swing can’t catch up as fast. And if I’m aware of this just think what mlb scouts are seeing    This dude is going to take a couple steps back this year 

 

Buddy? Lol. I just asked a question...if you want to get all terse over it, then so be it. Those "bogus numbers" show that his K-rate declined and his walk-rate increased in the second half...that his BA went up, as did his OBP. Pretty good considering the found that hole inside, wouldn't you say? Sure his HR pace declined, but his still was on a 150-game/35HR pace in the second half. I'll take that...wouldn't you?

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[ Hey @NyMetsfan5, I'm giving you some leeway here, but "listen, buddy" is not an opening that's going to lead to a productive response.  We need you to engage without being condescending here if this is going to work. I deleted replies that were nasty toward you, but you need to meet us halfway. ]

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23 minutes ago, tywalson said:

We also should remember that the Dodgers have coaches and scouts as well. Cody knows where pitchers were throwing and how they were getting him out.

 

Cody has shown a rare ability to quickly make adjustments as he has done so in his MiLB career. It doesn't hurt that his father was major leaguer too. I wouldn't dismiss his post season performance but that is in the dangerously small sample size territory. I'd expect bumps in the road but I don't see anything indicative in the stats or the eye test that would substantial harm his performance next season

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6 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

 

Cody has shown a rare ability to quickly make adjustments as he has done so in his MiLB career. It doesn't hurt that his father was major leaguer too. I wouldn't dismiss his post season performance but that is in the dangerously small sample size territory. I'd expect bumps in the road but I don't see anything indicative in the stats or the eye test that would substantial harm his performance next season

 

I"m not going to stress over his playoff stats. Some guys just can't hit in the playoffs (ARod). Some guys kill the ball in the playoffs. Schwarber looked great in the WS in 2016, and many thought that was a portend of things to come. Then he hits .211 in 2017...albeit with 30 HR. Arod was a fantasy stud for years, but had some really bad postseasons. Barry Bonds hit .245 in his postseason career, and outside of 2002, he was terrible in the playoffs. I'm not going to let the 2017 playoffs define Bellinger's future (and I know you're not either). Who knows...maybe the big stage in combination with the playoff arms just got to the 21 year old kid. 

 

ETA before someone makes the accusation...I'm not saying Bellinger will be ARod or Bonds. Just saying that playoff performance doesn't always line up with regular season performance. And every league I've been in counts the regular season only. 

Edited by Flyman75
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The hype train is obviously huge with his talent, skillset and IQ.  Still, I think we need to see him hit ..275/280 plus to get into that upper echelon of elite level players, i.e. 1st round talent.  I expect him to hit just about .270 this year (which is great for his age as a power bat).

Edited by STLSU

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3 hours ago, STLSU said:

The hype train is obviously huge with his talent, skillset and IQ.  Still, I think we need to see him hit ..275/280 plus to get into that upper echelon of elite level players, i.e. 1st round talent.  I expect him to hit just about .270 this year (which is great for his age as a power bat).

 

I don't really expect .270 out of him. I expect .250-.255 and am hopeful for .260. 

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Yes he only had a .267 average, but you need to understand that only McGwire and Judge had more HRs in their rookie seasons. Bellinger's floor (if he makes zero adjustments and stays healthy) would be 90/40/90/.250/10 but Bellinger isn't some crumb-bum. He's mature beyond his years, so much praise for this guy from former coaches and scouts. He will learn to cut the K% down overtime from about 26.5% to 20%, I could see him posting a 110/50/120/.290/20, possibly as early as next year. This is obviously all just my opinion.

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4 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't really expect .270 out of him. I expect .250-.255 and am hopeful for .260. 

if your expecting 250-260 then why would you take bellinger in the 2/3rd rd (bellinger comp 23 overall rank)

talking 5x5 here but there is no way you should spend a top 30 pick on someone if your expecting a sub 260 avg

 

only player in the 2/3rd rd in that avg territory is dozier but he offers 35+/15+ upside and edwin who are both going alot later than bellinger

adp/rank for bellinger doesnt make sense to me

Edited by colepenhagen
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6 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Yes he only had a .267 average, but you need to understand that only McGwire and Judge had more HRs in their rookie seasons. Bellinger's floor (if he makes zero adjustments and stays healthy) would be 90/40/90/.250/10 but Bellinger isn't some crumb-bum. He's mature beyond his years, so much praise for this guy from former coaches and scouts. He will learn to cut the K% down overtime from about 26.5% to 20%, I could see him posting a 110/50/120/.290/20, possibly as early as next year. This is obviously all just my opinion.

 

You think his floor is 40 bombs? 

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1 minute ago, absknicks said:

 

You think his floor is 40 bombs?

Why not? If he stays healthy, along with his FB rate over 45% and Hard contact above 40%, he should sleep walk into 40 bombs

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32 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

Why not? If he stays healthy, along with his FB rate over 45% and Hard contact above 40%, he should sleep walk into 40 bombs

 

When his HR/FB rate came back to earth in the 2H he hit 15 bombs in 243 ABs. Extrapolate that over 600 ABs (assuming health, obviously) and you get between 35-38 HRs. I think that'd be a realistic/fair projection for him this season. 

 

He could absolutely hit 40 but to say it's his floor or that he'll sleepwalk into it is a bit extreme, IMO. 

Edited by absknicks
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15 minutes ago, absknicks said:

 

When his HR/FB rate came back to earth in the 2H he hit 15 bombs in 243 ABs. Extrapolate that over 600 ABs (assuming health, obviously) and you get between 35-38 HRs. I think that'd be a realistic/fair projection for him this season. 

 

He could absolutely hit 40 but to say it's his floor or that he'll sleepwalk into it is a bit extreme, IMO. 

I hear that, you make a very valid point. In the 2nd half he had a 19.4% HR/FB... that seems a little light for him, especially in this juice ball era and since he continued his 45% FB and 40% hard contact rates. We'll just have to see :P

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8 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I don't really expect .270 out of him. I expect .250-.255 and am hopeful for .260. 

Why not? Do you mean for 2018 or just in general?

 

A 26.6% K-rate isn't outrageous, he's only 22, and demolished the minors. In fact, he pretty much skipped AAA because he was that good. To assume he can't hit .270 when he just hit .267 in his rookie year with under 100PA in AAA is a bit much. The kid has a great swing, and yeah... his post-season wasn't great... but again, 22 years old... lots of pressure.

 

I'm sure this guy ends up being an early 2nd rounder for years to come. 2018? Maybe not... but the upside is definitely there.

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I can’t see that much regression coming his way . The average could be lower sure but not below like 240. In an OBP league , probably meaningless. The power will be there. I think tons of guys you draft there’s ba risk and upside. 

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11 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

if your expecting 250-260 then why would you take bellinger in the 2/3rd rd (bellinger comp 23 overall rank)

talking 5x5 here but there is no way you should spend a top 30 pick on someone if your expecting a sub 260 avg

 

only player in the 2/3rd rd in that avg territory is dozier but he offers 35+/15+ upside and edwin who are both going alot later than bellinger

adp/rank for bellinger doesnt make sense to me

 

I never said I'd take him in the 2/3 rd. Obviously whoever thinks he's 23rd overall expects more than a .250-.260 BA :). I have him as a keeper in one league, and he is going to be a keeper for someone else in my other league. 

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6 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Why not? Do you mean for 2018 or just in general?

 

A 26.6% K-rate isn't outrageous, he's only 22, and demolished the minors. In fact, he pretty much skipped AAA because he was that good. To assume he can't hit .270 when he just hit .267 in his rookie year with under 100PA in AAA is a bit much. The kid has a great swing, and yeah... his post-season wasn't great... but again, 22 years old... lots of pressure.

 

I'm sure this guy ends up being an early 2nd rounder for years to come. 2018? Maybe not... but the upside is definitely there.

 

Just 2018. I think as his career progresses, he has the talent to hit for higher BAs. But for 2018, I expect some regression. I don't have the sabermetric reasons why, LOL...I just generally expect rookies with big rookie seasons to have a bit of a "sophomore slump" as teams learn how to adjust to them and then the sophomore goes through the learning process of how to adjust to the adjustments. 


So, no, I'm not talking for the entirety of his career...just 2018 :). I'm hopeful we see him turn into an annual .280-.300 hitter as he grows and learns. 

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