IlliniGuy76

Cody Bellinger 2018 Outlook

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57 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I never said I'd take him in the 2/3 rd. Obviously whoever thinks he's 23rd overall expects more than a .250-.260 BA :). I have him as a keeper in one league, and he is going to be a keeper for someone else in my other league. 

yea that really wasnt a question to you but directed to anyone taking him in the 2nd rd

i guess they are expecting 270+ avg

 

paying a 2nd rd price tag on a 2nd year player and hoping he repeats his numbers (40 hrs) which only 1 player has done in the last 2 years (khris davis b2b 40 bomb seasons)

 

your drafting bellinger hoping he can do what khris davis will do in 3 categories hrs/runs/rbis and your paying 2-3 rd more for and extra 10sb and hopfully a handful extra pts on avg

ik you can compare alot of high adp players and compare them with players going later that you think can give you the similar production but this one just sticks out to me

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I won't be owning Bellinger in any leagues this season.  I expect him to see some correction in the AVG department and probably settle around .240.  I'm not paying a 2nd round price tag for .240 / 30-35 HR's / 90 RBI's ... I'm not an expert that but that's more of the 4th - 5th round range in my opinion.

Edited by MJDrocks

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I think we should also remember that Cody is pretty fast from home to first and is not afraid to throw down bunts. His BABIP should settle in on the higher end for a power hitter and he will get some “cheap” hits throughout the year. I don’t think we are going to see as much BA correction as a lot are predicting. He isn’t an established 27 year old who we have years of data to point to regarding development and batting profile. He’s just now 22 and put up a historic season.

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58 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

I won't be owning Bellinger in any leagues this season.  I expect him to see some correction in the AVG department and probably settle around .240.  I'm not paying a 2nd round price tag for .240 / 30-35 HR's / 90 RBI's ... I'm not an expert that but that's more of the 4th - 5th round range in my opinion.

Yeah, I won't be owning this dude. There are other guys around them that I would rather have. 

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He will homer in his sleep, this day in age. 

 

I dont see anything that makes him a BA anchor. Just don't expect .290 but who ever would. 

 

In a sparse league for steals, he could steal 12-15. He's athletic as Hell. Floor is probably 30-10 and 100 RBI and runs. That's incredible. Ceiling is judge slugging %.

 

intrigued to see more in a good way on this guy 

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15 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

He's being drafted really high. Second round in most 12 teams I see, tail end 

 

No surprise there, even with the BA risk. He's a 1B with big power who can provide 10 SBs.

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He scares me this year. Something about how brutal he looked in the playoffs and sophomore slump. Fingers crossed.

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On 1/28/2018 at 12:19 AM, NyMetsfan5 said:

This is a classic example of regression. This guy isn’t as good as the season he had last year. With a years worth of film for teams to watch they’ll expose the multiple holes in his swing big time. 

There's nothing in his metrics that scream 'REGRESSION!' to me. BABIP is normal, no weird outliers in any of the advanced stuff. Do I think he hits 39 HRs? No. I'd say 35ish is something everyone can hope for. 

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I think there is still upside in the AVG and SB department. While everyone is screaming regression this also may be your last chance to get him before he is a consensus first rounder as well.

 

He is clocked as the fastest guy on the Dodgers. He dropped his K rate by 5.3% from first half to 2nd half. Yes it spiked in September/October. I can't hold it against him to much he is 22 and it was his first time in the playoffs where the pitchijng landscape changes dramatically.

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20 minutes ago, CurvePirate814 said:

There's nothing in his metrics that scream 'REGRESSION!' to me. BABIP is normal, no weird outliers in any of the advanced stuff. Do I think he hits 39 HRs? No. I'd say 35ish is something everyone can hope for. 

 

Maybe not in the metrics but he looked like he belonged in the minors toward the end of last season and in the playoffs. Anything low and inside off speed or even a fastball he had no answer for. I remember looking at him in astonishment like “how the heck did he put up those regular season numbers”. I own him in an nL only keeper Roto league. I don’t think I’ll be paying for him in any single season league in 2018.

Edited by Cdub2k

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Good for thought when drafting Cody

 

Adam Dunn 2.0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, rotodr said:

Good for thought when drafting Cody

 

Adam Dunn 2.0

 

 

Dunn had a bit more power, walked more. Struck out a lot more. He was three true outcomes, almost like Gallo. 

 

I watched as much Adam dunn as a human could and there aren't a lot of similarities. This isn't a hot take 

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I like the guy a helluva lot.  Nonetheless, he has got to make better contact.  These percentages are well below league average:

 

Postseason  |  Projections  |  Minor Leagues  |  Regular Season  |  Averages
Season Team O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%
2017 Dodgers 27.4 % 67.4 % 44.4 % 56.5 % 77.0 % 69.6 % 42.3 % 55.3 % 13.2 %
Total - - - 27.4 % 67.4 % 44.4 % 56.5 %

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6 hours ago, STLSU said:

I like the guy a helluva lot.  Nonetheless, he has got to make better contact.  These percentages are well below league average:

 

Postseason  |  Projections  |  Minor Leagues  |  Regular Season  |  Averages
Season Team O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%
2017 Dodgers 27.4 % 67.4 % 44.4 % 56.5 % 77.0 % 69.6 % 42.3 % 55.3 % 13.2 %
Total - - - 27.4 % 67.4 % 44.4 % 56.5 %

Considering he was 21 and it was his first year up it's really not that bad IMO. He is still young and 1. Developing 2. Working on improving his game.

 

While MLB averages last year were:

O-contact was 62.9%, Z-contact 85.5%, Contact 77.5%, Swstr% 10.5%

 

This isn't exactly good but when you put into context it really doesn't scare me as much

 

Secondly, he scorched the ball and is the clocked as the fastest runner on the Dodgers so he will run pretty decent BABIPs despite his fly ball and pull batted ball profile.

 

If he even experiences modest contact improvements as he ages the upside is massive.

Edited by Dirtywater97
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9 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Considering he was 21 and it was his first year up it's really not that bad IMO. He is still young and 1. Developing 2. Working on improving his game.

 

While MLB averages last year were:

O-contact was 62.9%, Z-contact 85.5%, Contact 77.5%, Swstr% 10.5%

 

This isn't exactly good but when you put into context it really doesn't scare me as much

 

Secondly, he scorched the ball and is the clocked as the fastest runner on the Dodgers so he will run pretty decent BABIPs despite his fly ball and pull batted ball profile.

 

If he even experiences modest contact improvements as he ages the upside is massive.

Are you sure those contact averages are correct for last year?  They may very well be in this 3 outcome era.  

 

MLB Average Contact is 80%, Zone Contact is 87%, and Out of Zone Contact around 66%.  

 

Belly is going to be just fine.  His acumen is quite high and he can make the toughest adjustments in game whereas many others wait until the offseason for same said adjustments.  He is always smiling and humble.  I will enjoy following his career very much.

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with current roster construction, how likely is it that he retains 1b/of eligibility (yahoo) for next season? 

dont know much about the dodgers' plans other than he is their starting 1b...how much of will he play, if any at all? 

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6 minutes ago, TheWrightStuff said:

with current roster construction, how likely is it that he retains 1b/of eligibility (yahoo) for next season? 

dont know much about the dodgers' plans other than he is their starting 1b...how much of will he play, if any at all? 

 

I'm having trouble finding the source, but I believe the Dodgers stated the plan is for Bellinger to only play 1B this year. He'll likely lose OF eligibility after this season.

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1 minute ago, TribeFoo said:

 

I'm having trouble finding the source, but I believe the Dodgers stated the plan is for Bellinger to only play 1B this year. He'll likely lose OF eligibility after this season.

ok, thanks

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Bellinger owners should be happy he will be just at 1B.  I don't want him diving around the OF.

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2 hours ago, STLSU said:

Are you sure those contact averages are correct for last year?  They may very well be in this 3 outcome era.  

 

MLB Average Contact is 80%, Zone Contact is 87%, and Out of Zone Contact around 66%.  

 

Belly is going to be just fine.  His acumen is quite high and he can make the toughest adjustments in game whereas many others wait until the offseason for same said adjustments.  He is always smiling and humble.  I will enjoy following his career very much.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=5&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=&filter=&players=0

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The contact will only rise. The power will remain the same.

 

The sky is the limit for Bellinger as he heads into his second full season.

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On 3/15/2018 at 11:58 AM, TheWrightStuff said:

with current roster construction, how likely is it that he retains 1b/of eligibility (yahoo) for next season? 

dont know much about the dodgers' plans other than he is their starting 1b...how much of will he play, if any at all? 

http://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-news-organization-no-plans-cody-bellinger-outfield-ce1110/2018/02/21/

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