IlliniGuy76

Shohei Ohtani 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-28. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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24 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

Lol try to hide your anger that you don't have him a little bit better

 

Huh?  I don't understand what you are trying to say.  I was passing on info that Gomes mentioned tonight.  It might help to explain how he got his blister and lacked any control of his slider or splitter tonight.  What is you problem?  This is a fantasy baseball site where no one really hates other players. 

 

As for not having him to have him in my dynasty leagues I would have had to finish last in my leagues last season to get him.  I really wish Ohtani well and think he is great for baseball but I'll take my high finishes in my leagues over the first pick in a deep dynasty mini-draft any day, haha.

 

So what anger are you talking about?  I have none other than a long standing annoyance regards David Price and his "attitude" real baseball wise.

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Welcome to the big leagues, kid.

 

He'll be fine but the SP1 talk was extremely premature. 

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Now we'll see how serious they are about the hitting side.

 

Surely it should take a backseat while his blister heals, but we'll see. Otherwise could they skip him a start and just let him hit most days instead till its fully healed?

 

This guy is going to be the most interesting story all year long.

stay tuned GIF by Joey Graceffa

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12 hours ago, barrister said:

 

I'm going to sit this one out.  The Red Sox have been the hottest team during this early part of the season.  Ohtani is eventually going to have a subpar game.  Wouldn't surprise me to see it in this spot.  

 

7 hours ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

Great call

 

7 hours ago, IceGoat said:

 

Not really. You never sit your aces. Ohtani has the kind of stuff to dominate anyone. 

 

If this guy is your ace, you can quit your roto league right now. Even in h2h you’ll be lucky to make the playoffs streaming pitchers that badly. 

 

Not even the Angels went into the season with this guy as their ace, which they see as Garrett Richards. 

 

barrister’s call was spot on. The sheep (goats too I guess) all had this game driven up to Price +154, which was obviously ridiculous. I only wish I had gone strong on it instead of hedging. I doubt there will be another Price +154 ROS, or even close. 

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The people who think he has no shot of being an ace this year clearly did not draft him and wish he was on their team.

 

He couldn’t get his offspeed pitches to go for strikes last night against a very disciplined lineup. But if you don’t see ace stuff in this guy, you probably don’t know baseball.

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Nice to see that the blister issue likely won't hurt the people who own the hitter half of him...

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11 hours ago, IceGoat said:

 

Not really. You never sit your aces. Ohtani has the kind of stuff to dominate anyone. 

 

Dont' get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Ohtani.  But at this point, he can't be considered a true "ace."  He has the potential to become an ace, but he doesn't deserve that designation two starts into his MLB career.  Currently he's the #3/4 on my team (depending on whether you want to include Bumgarner on the list).  And the road to developing into an ace isn't always an easy one.  If you've played fantasy baseball long enough, you've undoubtedly seen this movie before.  There will be bumps in the road.  The fact that the best team in baseball (currently) was a bump for Ohtani doesn't surprise me, nor does it make me lose any confidence in him.

 

However, I do get a bit concerned when I hear about blister issues.  Hopefully it's minor, but I've seen too many pitchers with blister problems: Hill, Stroman, Sanchez, Cotton, Walker, Price, Syndergaard, etc.  The MLB seriously needs to take a close look at whether the ball is contributing to this issue.  I understand some pitchers (e.g., Hill) are more likely to develop blisters given the way they grip and spin the ball, but pitchers that have never had a problem with blisters are developing them.

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50 minutes ago, barrister said:

 

Dont' get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Ohtani.  But at this point, he can't be considered a true "ace."  He has the potential to become an ace, but he doesn't deserve that designation two starts into his MLB career.  Currently he's the #3/4 on my team (depending on whether you want to include Bumgarner on the list).  And the road to developing into an ace isn't always an easy one.  If you've played fantasy baseball long enough, you've undoubtedly seen this movie before.  There will be bumps in the road.  The fact that the best team in baseball (currently) was a bump for Ohtani doesn't surprise me, nor does it make me lose any confidence in him.

 

However, I do get a bit concerned when I hear about blister issues.  Hopefully it's minor, but I've seen too many pitchers with blister problems: Hill, Stroman, Sanchez, Cotton, Walker, Price, Syndergaard, etc.  The MLB seriously needs to take a close look at whether the ball is contributing to this issue.  I understand some pitchers (e.g., Hill) are more likely to develop blisters given the way they grip and spin the ball, but pitchers that have never had a problem with blisters are developing them.

 

Well, it goes without saying he hasn't yet established himself as an ace by the measure of Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale, etc. but he looked fantastic in his first two starts and the blister was likely the reason he had no command last night. I'm sure he would have pitched effectively otherwise. 

 

I guess I've never been one to play match-ups with my pitchers. If I'm carrying a guy on my team, he's gonna pitch (one caveat: I play in deep leagues). Coors Field is generally the one exception; the rarefied air changes things. 

 

Given that I feel this way about starting lesser pitchers, I would never bench a guy with Ohtani's stuff especially since the Angels intend to be so thrifty with his workload. I would want every inning I can get. 

Edited by IceGoat
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I have no trouble if people play match ups, but this bad outing had almost zero to do with the tough match and everything to do with the fact that Ohtani had absolutely nothing last night.  Even a AAA team would have had no issue laying off the numerous bouncing balls, balls at the top of batter's head level, etc.  The pitch to Betts actually wasn't too bad, but the situation was because of the count.  Betts was just looking fastball because he bounced two attempted splitters. 

 

Anyway, if he had that stuff against Oakland it would have been a train wreck (probably worse:  Boston did extend counts a ton so he was forced out so early.  Against a weaker team it could have easily been 4 IP, 5 ER, 3 K, 5 BB whereas the high pitch count at least limited the damage to a manageable 2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K, 2 BB.

 

If he had the stuff he had against Oakland last night, I believe it would have been a good start.

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I can’t seem to find his game logs for hitting ... I only see pitching on both ESPN & MLB 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, 9703 said:

The people who think he has no shot of being an ace this year clearly did not draft him and wish he was on their team.

 

He couldn’t get his offspeed pitches to go for strikes last night against a very disciplined lineup. But if you don’t see ace stuff in this guy, you probably don’t know baseball.

Do people really think that way? Already traded him but hope he does turn into the Ace that people think he will. Good for baseball if he succeeds.

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Just now, Low and Away said:

Do people really think that way? Already traded him but hope he does turn into the Ace that people think he will. Good for baseball if he succeeds.

 

I don’t know but there’s a couple people on here saying you have no shot if he’s your fantasy ace.

 

Personally, I’m trying to trade for the guy.

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34 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I can’t seem to find his game logs for hitting ... I only see pitching on both ESPN & MLB 

 

 

 

 

There's a tab you click to go to hitting stats

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5 minutes ago, The Waker said:

 

There's a tab you click to go to hitting stats

I click on game log and it shows pitching

Edited by shakestreet

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7 hours ago, IceGoat said:

 

Well, it goes without saying he hasn't yet established himself as an ace by the measure of Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale, etc. but he looked fantastic in his first two starts and the blister was likely the reason he had no command last night. I'm sure he would have pitched effectively otherwise. 

 

I guess I've never been one to play match-ups with my pitchers. If I'm carrying a guy on my team, he's gonna pitch (one caveat: I play in deep leagues). Coors Field is generally the one exception; the rarefied air changes things. 

 

Given that I feel this way about starting lesser pitchers, I would never bench a guy with Ohtani's stuff especially since the Angels intend to be so thrifty with his workload. I would want every inning I can get. 

 

Ok. I’m not saying it was dumb to start him. But it was definitely risky considering the Red Sox now have the best offense (OPS) in baseball. 

 

To say “never sit your aces” implies that this guy has reached unsittable ace status, which you agree above he hasn’t... yet. That was my only point. 

 

Ohtani is obviously a huge talent. Unsittable ace though? Not quite. 

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47 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Ok. I’m not saying it was dumb to start him. But it was definitely risky considering the Red Sox now have the best offense (OPS) in baseball. 

 

To say “never sit your aces” implies that this guy has reached unsittable ace status, which you agree above he hasn’t... yet. That was my only point. 

 

Ohtani is obviously a huge talent. Unsittable ace though? Not quite. 

I can see both sides of it really.  I don't think Ohtani is an unsittable pitcher yet either, but if you own him and truly believe in him already, it's your team and you can do whatever you want with it.  The potential is there, and if I had him last night, I'm not sure if I would have started him or not honestly.  The way he looked in the first two starts, I would have had to at least consider pitching him either way.

 

I did end up trading for him today though.  As long as the blister issue (which he had in Japan too) can be kept under control to the point where it doesn't contribute to outings like this again (or very very rarely), I actually don't think it was a bad idea to consider him a buy low.  I doubt he's going to be anyone's #1 SP on your fantasy team, even if you believe he can be an ace, so if he is a middle or backend guy for you, there's e nothing wrong with that.  He's actually my #5 right now since I have had a core 4 guys since Day 1.

 

With that said, if the fact that he's had blisters in Japan worries you enough, I can see somebody trading him as well.  Since it hasn't come out that it's going to be an issue for his next start, I can see taking a shot and seeing if you can get fair value in your opinion for him right now.  Once I have him on my team, I can see myself at least seeing what people would be willing to give me briefly.  I can only see selling him if you get a solid return right now though (at least the pitcher half, as the hitting half will keep going as long as he doesn't make any DL trips).

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8 hours ago, IceGoat said:

Well, it goes without saying he hasn't yet established himself as an ace by the measure of Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber, Sale, etc

I love Ohtani and own him on a bunch if teams. But even if his ratios and K rate match those guys, I still wouldn't consider him a fantasy ace because its almost a given that he will throw 30-40 fewer innings than those guys.

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2 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

Are they spacing out Ohtani's starts more than the typical pitcher?  Is that the plan?

Sounded like it, 6 man rotation for the Angels.

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