IlliniGuy76

Shohei Ohtani 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-28. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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4 hours ago, Michael Bluth said:

I just wish they went to a normal rotation. Never any two starts makes it hard in weekly leagues. But as long as he does this every Sunday I guess it’ll be fine lol

 

Two things - first, on a normal rotation they would likely shut him down sooner on an innings cap, so a six man rotation at least gives you a chance to possibly have him available late in the season. Second - if he pitches on a Monday there's still a decent chance you'll get two starts from him in that week, even if the A's have an off day that week. Pitching on Monday and then the following Sunday would still keep him on his normal schedule.

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55 minutes ago, chud12 said:

trying yo trade for Ohtani In dynasty leagues is going to be a task. I own him in mine (the hitter) and I want the pitcher version now.  The hype is bonkers after this start though, I have legit thought about offering up Buxton for him straight up.  Trying to predict if he fades or not is anyone’s guess but same can be said for a young guy like Buxton. 

Yahoo ...what are you going to do 

Just say next year when and if yahoo makes Ohtani one player person ... 

 

i expect yahoo will will figure it out ... I wonder what you guys are going to doin dynasty & keeper leagues

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35 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Yahoo ...what are you going to do 

Just say next year when and if yahoo makes Ohtani one player person ... 

 

i expect yahoo will will figure it out ... I wonder what you guys are going to doin dynasty & keeper leagues

 

???

 

Because of keeper leagues, Yahoo will never be able to change him into one player.  What are we going to do you ask?  LOL.  It's what is yahoo going to do, and if they were to change anything at this point, they would be pissing off somebody in every single keeper league.  So yeah...they've already made their bed and now they have to sleep in it.

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[ There's a platform thread for all of your Yahoo-kvetching needs. Let's try to keep this focused on Ohtani as a player.] 

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At what point do the angels have to consider stop batting him? Getting hit by a pitch or some fluky injury would be devastating his pitching seems too valuable.

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5 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Is there a plan to get him playing in the field at any point? My leagues has no DH so I can’t use him as a hitter until he establishes eligibility for OF. Does someone have to get hurt? Would he have to overtake Calhoun? 

 

I doubt they bench Calhoun.  He's a pretty solid real life player (usually around 3 WAR).

 

I'd have to think they'd throw a 1B glove on him before he plays significant innings in the OF.

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18 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I doubt they bench Calhoun.  He's a pretty solid real life player (usually around 3 WAR).

 

I'd have to think they'd throw a 1B glove on him before he plays significant innings in the OF.

 Dang this guy is good!

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25 minutes ago, sjs1890 said:

At what point do the angels have to consider stop batting him? Getting hit by a pitch or some fluky injury would be devastating his pitching seems too valuable.

Not gonna happen.  That was part of the agreement when choosing his team.

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36 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I doubt they bench Calhoun.  He's a pretty solid real life player (usually around 3 WAR).

 

I'd have to think they'd throw a 1B glove on him before he plays significant innings in the OF.

 

That's where I see him spending time if he ever becomes a semi-regular MLB field player in addition to his pitching duties - although, so long as he's not a guy who needs to play in the field to get a hitting rhythm, DH is pretty ideal. He looks like a legit top of the rotation guy much earlier than I expected (trusted the stuff would get him there, but didn't think he'd transition this smoothly as far as approach), just too valuable to risk him in the OF

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[ Several more deleted.  Folks, the platform chat really needs to go here.  I understand that how your platform treats Ohtani is relevant to his value as a player, but the rule of thumb in Baseball Talk player threads has always been to keep the discussion as generally applicable to people in all league formats as is possible.  Discussing the merits of treating him as one player vs. two, when a particular platform is likely to change their treatment of him, etc. is creating a bunch of noise that needs to go elsewhere. ]

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It's only a "big advantage" because he happens to be very good. Same way it's a big advantage to have any other player who is very good, such as Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, or Clayton Kershaw. If he starts struggling in -either- hitting or pitching, that "advantage" disappears almost instantly since he misses so many ABs and is in a 6 man rotation

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4 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

It's only a "big advantage" because he happens to be very good. Same way it's a big advantage to have any other player who is very good, such as Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, or Clayton Kershaw. If he starts struggling in -either- hitting or pitching, that "advantage" disappears almost instantly since he misses so many ABs and is in a 6 man rotation

 

Huh?

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In a typical 5x5 standard dynasty league, what is the value for Ohtani the batter? I drafted the Ohtani the pitcher with my #1 and didnt' think much of the batter but now he's got me thinking twice.

Edited by phatrat
Language

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1 hour ago, larfboy said:

In a typical 5x5 standard dynasty league, what is the value for Ohtani the batter? I drafted the Ohtani the pitcher with my #1 and didnt' think much of the batter but now he's got me thinking twice.

 

money_3_large.jpg

 

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Just now, jb_power said:

 

money_3_large.jpg

 

lol i guess you're not wrong...however, do you have a player value? 

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1 minute ago, larfboy said:

lol i guess you're not wrong...however, do you have a player value? 

 

Yes I do ...

 

1243664214672_f.jpg

 

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2 minutes ago, larfboy said:

lol i guess you're not wrong...however, do you have a player value? 

 

There's no way to answer this question without delving into the specifics of your format.  If you have daily vs. weekly transactions, it becomes a lot easier to carry a guy who sits 3x a week.  If your format's deep enough (15+ teams, AL-only) then it probably doesn't makes as much of a difference because you're already forced in a lot of those leagues to roster part-time players.

 

But there's just no comp for a guy who's shown this much ability in such a short sample.  If part-time platoon bats had outbursts like this, they'd be playing every day.  The reason they're part-time players is that we know they're not able to sustain that level.  The reason Shohei Ohtani (Batter) is a part-time player is because he's out there slaying fools with his pitching prowess.  You can't really make a comp here, and the batting sample just isn't big enough to draw any conclusions about his mixed-league viability if you're just getting him as a bat.

 

 

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Babe Ruth hitting stats when he was primarily a SP for the Red Sox

 

1915 20 BOS AL 42 103 92 16 29 10 1 4 20 0 0 9 23 .315 .376 .576 .952 188 53   0 2     1  
1916 21 BOS AL 67 152 136 18 37 5 3 3 16 0   10 23 .272 .322 .419 .741 121 57   0 4     1  
1917 22 BOS AL 52 142 123 14 40 6 3 2 14 0   12 18 .325 .385 .472 .857 162 58   0 7     1  
1918 23 BOS AL 95 382 317 50 95 26 11 11 61 6   58 58 .300 .411 .555 .966 192 176

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12 hours ago, sjs1890 said:

At what point do the angels have to consider stop batting him? Getting hit by a pitch or some fluky injury would be devastating his pitching seems too valuable.

 

You know there is an entire league where pitchers are responsible for hitting in every game where they are the starting pitcher, yes? 

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4 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

You know there is an entire league where pitchers are responsible for hitting in every game where they are the starting pitcher, yes? 

 

This kind of sarcasm isn't really useful.  Obviously a pitcher DH-ing 3+ times a week is going to get more exposure to injury than a NL pitcher who handles the bat 2-3 times once or twice a week before being replaced by a pinch hitter.  The question of how much of the reward of his offense is worth the risk of putting him out there is very relevant, and dismissing it with "well, offensively useless pitchers bat in the NL because those are the rules of that league" doesn't really add much to the conversation.

 

(And we definitely don't need a "Designated hitter rule: good or bad?" derail in here.)

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Is he a must sell high? Only expected to pitch around 160 inn. From what I've read.

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3 minutes ago, TTRA1N said:

Is he a must sell high? Only expected to pitch around 160 inn. From what I've read.

 

I seem to recall a certain youngster who started out on fire and many pundits saying to sell high, he'll regress ... he'll get shut down early ... blah blah blah

 

I held on for the ride and it was a fabulous ride ... rookie RHP Jose Fernandez may he rest in peace

 

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