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Aaron Altherr 2018 Outlook

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Phils sign Santana.  Hoskins to LF.  

 

That leaves Williams and Altherr to battle it out in RF.   I don't think either of them can play CF.

 

It doesn't look like Altherr is going to get a full season of ABs.

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You put the same identical post in the Nick Williams thread but with the names reversed.  Calm down some and don't jump to conclusions.  See my reply there in the Nick Williams thread.

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8 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

No reason he shouldn't play 6 days a week.

 

looks a bit crowded to me with Altherr battling Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams, Tommy Joseph for 4 spots

 

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Joseph is a total non-factor.  He'll be released / traded before the season starts.

 

It's 5 guys for 4 spots, with Williams being the most likely to lose significant PAs if he's still on the team.

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Where would you rank Altherr if he gets a full season of at bats in that lineup? I’m a fan of the talent but struggling to grade him with his injury history and lack of full time AB at the moment.

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if Altherr can stay healthy he could be big.

 

here is a review from 2017..

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/11/8/16613230/2017-phillies-player-review-aaron-altherr

partial quotes..

Quote

Altherr was one of the team’s young shining stars in 2017, when he was on the field, and reinforced the outstanding few weeks he spent with the team at the end of the season two years earlier.

In 2015, he hit .241/.338/.489 in 39 games (161 PAs) with a 1.8 fWAR that was 3rd-most among Phils’ offensive players that season. In 39 games. He was handed the right field job heading into 2016, but a bad wrist injury in spring training cost him most of the season and, when he did come back, the wrist was still clearly an issue. In 57 games, he batted .202/.304/.293 in 227 PAs.

But in spring training last year, Altherr looked good. He worked with Matt Stairs to move his hands in his batting stance, and it seemed to make a big difference. And once a nagging oblique injury to Kendrick in late April opened the door for Altherr, he kicked through it.

In 107 games (412 PAs) he slashed .272/.340/.516 with a wRC+ of 120, 19 home runs, 65 RBIs and 58 runs scored. His numbers would have been even better had he not spent most of the season’s opening month on the bench, and had he not missed big parts of July and all but three games in August with a hamstring injury that wouldn’t go away.

Prorated over 162 games, Altherr would have collected 28 dingers and 98 RBIs. Until he got hurt on July 15, he was on pace to be the Phils’ lone representative at the All-Star Game, and it would have been a legitimate selection.

 

There are obviously good reasons to be fixated on those guys. But Altherr will be just 27 years old next season and should also be considered one of the team’s most exciting young players moving forward.

Among 44 NL outfielders with at least 400 plate appearances last season, Altherr’s wRC+ of 120 was 13th, tied with New York’s Jay Bruce. His .359 wOBA was 11th, and his .516 slugging percentage was 9th. He had a higher OBP than Odubel Herrera (.340-.325), his 19 HRs were 3rd on the team, and his .245 ISO was 2nd only to Hoskins on the Phils.

 

But if Altherr can stay on the field for 150-160 games and duplicate the success he had last year, he has the potential to be an All-Star. He’s that good.

 

mentioned above is how before last season he worked with hitting coach Matt Stairs. here is that link..

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20170323_Aaron_Altherr_has_Phillies_excited_about_his_swing.html

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

if Altherr can stay healthy he could be big.

 

here is a review from 2017..

https://www.thegoodphight.com/2017/11/8/16613230/2017-phillies-player-review-aaron-altherr

partial quotes..

 

mentioned above is how before last season he worked with hitting coach Matt Stairs. here is that link..

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20170323_Aaron_Altherr_has_Phillies_excited_about_his_swing.html

 

 

 

Also if he can get enough playing time.  We got Rhys Hoskins (Carlos Santana signing moves Hoskins into the OF) and Herrera pretty much every day.  So Altherrr and Nick Williams have to fight over the remaining spot.  Yeah Altherr should get the lion's share but Williams is still a up and down kind of wild card but if he improves ... well he had some flashes last year.

 

Yes I own Altherr in about three dynasties so I want him to get ABs. I just worry about my guys.

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He’s one of my “power/speed upside but bad hamstrings all stars” along with Puig and Gregory Polanco

 

In all serious though, as much as I am a sucker for these guys who show immediate improvement after retooling their swing, plate appearances is a serious concern.

 

Googling local Philly sports news the local media seems to have written him off as the 4th OF.  One publication even compares him to John Mayberry, which is kind of harsh considering Altherr was their best hitter last year prior to Hoskins callup.

 

Altherr was even more firmly cemented as 4th OF at the start of last season and still hit his way into regular ABs, so there could still be some speculative draft day value..

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10 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

 

Googling local Philly sports news the local media seems to have written him off as the 4th OF.

 

 

Who's saying that, and have they ever watched Nick Williams hit?

 

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2 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

 

Who's saying that, and have they ever watched Nick Williams hit?

 

I can’t seriously say I researched this enough to characterize it as a pervasive point of view, but stumbled across these (which I really only skimmed):

 

https://thatballsouttahere.com/2018/01/15/aaron-altherr-john-mayberry-2-0/

 

http://www.sportstalkphilly.com/2018/01/philadelphia-phillies-news-odubel-herrera-cesar-hernandez-carlos-santana.html

 

Surprised it is even considered a close question though as to who wins out between AA and Williams given how much refinement Willisms needs in his plate approach, also seems like Franco should be on the playing time bubble if Santana can still play 3rd

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Starting in CF today and batting 5th. Odubel on the bench.

 

Dont want to read too much into that as the Phillies have said all along there would be some rotation, but I didn't figure he'd start today so it's a nice sign.

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Just a lot of moving parts in PHI, AA deserves every ABs but with Kingery in the mix he's gonna need to get hot from the start to get 5 games a week. Fwiw I don't think Williams is anything more than a 4th OF and still a bit unsure what Odubel is...

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Ice cold start and cut in my league. Could use a decent 5th OF going forward so is he worth grabbing?

 

I still think he's much better than Williams. Hasn't been striking out a ton just no BABIP luck and lack of power so far and taking his walks (mines OBP league). I still think talent wins out over the long run.

Edited by swfcdan

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It looks like we are learning more and more about Kapler's lineup strategy.  Giving multiple players 4 starts a week instead of smaller number of players six starts a week.  This kills fantasy value for a lot of players.

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1 minute ago, jwblue said:

It looks like we are learning more and more about Kapler's lineup strategy.  Giving multiple players 4 starts a week instead of smaller number of players six starts a week.  This kills fantasy value for a lot of players.

In daily it's much more manageable, but in weekly yes it is absolutely unbearable.

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10 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Ice cold start and cut in my league. Could use a decent 5th OF going forward so is he worth grabbing?

 

I still think he's much better than Williams. Hasn't been striking out a ton just no BABIP luck and lack of power so far and taking his walks (mines OBP league). I still think talent wins out over the long run.

If you are going to buy, now is the time to do it. He's been unsustainably bad/unlucky. It will turn around as long as he keeps getting run.... .067BABIP.

 

Edit: Sorry didn't mean to double post it was supposed to be consolidated into one.

Edited by Dirtywater97

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Scuffling hard. His BABIP is insanely low, and he's actually hit the ball rather hard too I believe. He gets a start every few games and seems to be pressing. The KIngery Crunch along with Williams hitting a bit better has rendered him rather useless. He needs a trade or injury to resurface.

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21 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Scuffling hard. His BABIP is insanely low, and he's actually hit the ball rather hard too I believe. He gets a start every few games and seems to be pressing. The KIngery Crunch along with Williams hitting a bit better has rendered him rather useless. He needs a trade or injury to resurface.

3/3 certainly helps. Seems to be coming out of it. Buy low window is closing in deep leagues.

 

K-rate is elevated right now but swstr% and contact rates all match last year.

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Gabe was quoted after yesterday’s walkoff as saying that they went into the season looking at Altherr as one of their top hitters, which sounds accurate given how much playing time they gave him to start the season, and that they know a lot of his struggles could be chalked up to bad luck... so, I could see him getting a lot more starts this week as they try to ride the momentum, they have plenty of other guys struggling in the lineup who could use a some time on the bench

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Heating up now, monster shot to centre yesterday.

 

Time to pick back up. How regular will the PT be though?

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On 2018-04-26 at 4:26 AM, swfcdan said:

Heating up now, monster shot to centre yesterday.

 

Time to pick back up. How regular will the PT be though?

Everyday RFer. He's surpassed Nick Williams on depth chart and has some breathing room it seems.

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Crawford injury helps by keeping Kingery off the grass more often. Of course Kingery is helping as well with his lackluster play of late. 

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