thebrowns

2018 Rookie RB Class

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Great RB class. Just need to wait and see where these guys end up. I'm a little lower on Chubb and Kerryon Johnson than many in this thread. Love Rashaad Penny and John Kelly.

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28 minutes ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

This is a weird blurb. Dismissive in what way I wonder. Was he talking to the Browns or Dolphins or some other dumpster fire and acted dismissive because he doesn't want to go there? Very odd.

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Haven't read through the thread, but wondering how people feel about Walton vs. Freeman vs. Kelly. 

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12 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Haven't read through the thread, but wondering how people feel about Walton vs. Freeman vs. Kelly. 

I've been debating between Freeman and Kelley myself. I like them both, but for different reasons. Kelly seems more powerful and explosive to me and Freeman just looks.....smooth with good feet. For me, it really depends on which one of them is still on the board early in the 2nd round (and of course landing spot (yawn)). As far as Walton is concerned, there are several similar backs that I think will still be available in the 3rd. Nyheim Hines, Martez Carter, Chase Edmonds, and Ito Smith are the ones that come to mind. I generally opt for backs that are at least 215lbs unless they're taller and have the ability to put on more weight in the NFL weight rooms. Sometimes those smaller guys have success, but generally they're only really valuable in full point ppr since they get relegated to passing downs. The smaller guys seem to have a harder time staying healthy too.

 

Edit: Nyheim Hines is more speed and less shifty, so maybe not a good comparison to Walton.

Edited by wonderbread
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42 minutes ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

I know Barfield likes Kelly fwiw...

Great info, thanks. 

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Which order of rookie RBs do you think has the best skillset for fantasy production? For me I think it begins with pass protection and pass catching out of the backfield to land that 3 down back status like the Zekes and Bells. Im not too familiar with this RB class outside of Barkley being a star studded high liner to be a 3 down back. 

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On 3/14/2018 at 10:38 PM, Geaux Saints said:

Great RB class. Just need to wait and see where these guys end up. I'm a little lower on Chubb and Kerryon Johnson than many in this thread. Love Rashaad Penny and John Kelly.

 

I think my high regard for Nick Chubb is due to his universal skill set. My guess is that he will be a 1000 yard 10 td guy for 3-4 seasons regardless of where he lands. There aren't a loot of backs who fill the first two downs as well as he will. I expect him to get jumped when we see landing spot for some of these pass catching backs.

 

Johnson will depend on fit as will Freeman. If those guys get behind a solid line, watch out.

 

I think Kelly has real potential but could get buried with a later round selection to a bad fit. I'm hoping he lands somewhere like Kansas City where he can be a compliment (it won't be KC). 

 

I view Penny like Chubb but with more upside. If like to see more fluidity in his hips and of course that pass protection needs work. But he has a lot of potential. 

 

Penny and Chubb both have room to grow as natural catchers. 

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On 3/23/2018 at 6:44 AM, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

I know Barfield likes Kelly fwiw...

 

Kelly film is crazy good. 

 

I was shocked, not surprised, shocked at how poorly he tested.   Huge disconnect there. 

 

I'll still be drafting him in dynasty depending on what team he ends up on.

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24 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Kelly film is crazy good. 

 

I was shocked, not surprised, shocked at how poorly he tested.   Huge disconnect there. 

 

I'll still be drafting him in dynasty depending on what team he ends up on.

 

I love that Kelly tested poorly. I'm going to be able to draft him now. I'm RB poor on all my leagues. I intentionally grabbed extra picks for this class. 

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Feel free to disagree but I see Kelly having a similar build and running style to another Volunteer.... Arian Foster. 

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On 3/23/2018 at 9:44 AM, NYR Fan 116894 said:

I know Barfield likes Kelly fwiw...

 

A lot of these NFL writers do.

 

Considering how underutilized Kamara was in Tennessee, this could be another unexpected breakout. 

 

He's 5'9" 205lb.

 

There was a prospect a few years ago 5'8" 206lb who's also great at breaking tackles and is smooth in the passing game, whose name is Devonta Freeman.

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11 hours ago, 96mnc said:

I'll still be drafting him in dynasty depending on what team he ends up on.

 

You'd better not hesitate cuz I'm drafting two spots after you ;)

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This class is gonna go down like the 2014 WR class.

 

There are 18 teams have starter jobs that are open for a rookie to take over:

NFC: Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs

AFC: Pats, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Jags, Titans, Texans, Colts

 

And by my count there are at least 10 starter caliber RBs in this class, maybe more:

Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, Penny, Jones, Kerryon, Freeman, Ballage, Kelly, Adams

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46 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

This class is gonna go down like the 2014 WR class.

 

There are 18 teams have starter jobs that are open for a rookie to take over:

NFC: Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs

AFC: Pats, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Jags, Titans, Texans, Colts

 

And by my count there are at least 10 starter caliber RBs in this class, maybe more:

Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, Penny, Jones, Kerryon, Freeman, Ballage, Kelly, Adams

 

Totally agree that this is going to be a great year for Dynasty Rookies. Some of those 18 windows are more narrow than others (Browns-Hyde/Johnson?; Jets-Crowell; Panthers-McCaffrey; 49ers-McKinnon/Breida; Ravens-Collins?; Dolphins-Drake?; Packers-Jones/Williams; Pats-Where Running Backs go to die[for FF]).

 

I can't figure out Washington, hopefully, Smith brings stability.  Giants  (Gallman?), Eagles (Clement?) , Lions (Abdullah?/Blount?), Seahawks  (Carson?), Bucs (Barber?) , Raiders (Lynch?) , Broncos (Anderson?/Booker?), Texans (What is foreman?), and Colts (Mack?). Seem to be wider windows than the other 8. 

 

I could see the Rams as a possibility for one of the high flyers, feels like a sneaking spot for someone with great hands.

Surprised that the Bills didn't make your list of places for immediate impact. I think Shady's days as a solo back are numbered and with the right fit could be done. But that isn't necessarily a bad thing for his FF career. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs draft someone to compliment Hunt, who knows what is going on with Spencer Ware. 

 

@Lord_Varys I appreciate you bringing some clarity to the ambiguous "landing spot matters". We don't know where guys are going to land; I appreciate having a lay of the land. Many of my drafts are within weeks of the NFL draft. It is good to identify what kind of back a prospect is and what kind of openings are available in different landing spots [2down/3down/3rd-down/etc]. 

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16 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

Some of those 18 windows are more narrow than others

 

Most certainly.  My only criteria was this: "Can a rookie come in and feasibly steal the starting job?"  Browns for example have good RBs, but if they take a Guice or Michel then those guys could absoutely supplant Hyde as the starter.  Hyde/Johnson would still have roles, but their volume is not safe.  You could probably even add Chicago to this list since they invested such minimal draft capital in Jordan Howard -- but they almost certainly won't draft RB so I'm not worried about them.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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51 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Most certainly.  My only criteria was this: "Can a rookie come in and feasibly steal the starting job?"  Browns for example have good RBs, but if they take a Guice or Michel then those guys could absoutely supplant Hyde as the starter.  Hyde/Johnson would still have roles, but their volume is not safe.  You could probably even add Chicago to this list since they invested such minimal draft capital in Jordan Howard -- but they almost certainly won't draft RB so I'm not worried about them.

 

I had that thought about Chicago as well. 

 

The 'narrow window' imo for Cleveland is in that 3rd down territory. I could see them going with a Hyde/Michel backfield. Local papers say that Johnson is being shopped. That's what I had him listed as a ?. 

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13 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

This class is gonna go down like the 2014 WR class.

 

There are 18 teams have starter jobs that are open for a rookie to take over:

NFC: Eagles, Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs

AFC: Pats, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Jags, Titans, Texans, Colts

 

And by my count there are at least 10 starter caliber RBs in this class, maybe more:

Barkley, Guice, Michel, Chubb, Penny, Jones, Kerryon, Freeman, Ballage, Kelly, Adams

 

The only true starter vacancies are NYG, Colts, DEN (if they cut CJA), HOU (if they cut Miller - unlikely c Foreman's Achilles), TB, and SEA. 

 

All other landing spots = frustrating RBBCs at best for rookies. 

 

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20 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

The only true starter vacancies are NYG, Colts, DEN (if they cut CJA), HOU (if they cut Miller - unlikely c Foreman's Achilles), TB, and SEA. 

 

All other landing spots = frustrating RBBCs at best for rookies. 

 

 

What about the Redskins or Lions? If a high pick is spent in either of these locations, I feel good about that person getting the majority of the work. 

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8 minutes ago, mrschrod said:

 

What about the Redskins or Lions? If a high pick is spent in either of these locations, I feel good about that person getting the majority of the work. 

 

Chris Thompson and Riddick have the receiving/3rd down role on lock, and there is competition in both situations for GL carries. No chance for a three-down RB role for a rookie as a landing spot. 

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17 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Chris Thompson and Riddick have the receiving/3rd down role on lock, and there is competition in both situations for GL carries. No chance for a three-down RB role for a rookie as a landing spot. 

 

Ok we are considering true starter vacancies different then. For example, I consider Joe Mixon the lead back even though Gio Bernard is lock down 3rd down back. Mixon will still get some catches though. I think the same thing could happen with whoever those two teams draft

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1 hour ago, mrschrod said:

 

Ok we are considering true starter vacancies different then. For example, I consider Joe Mixon the lead back even though Gio Bernard is lock down 3rd down back. Mixon will still get some catches though. I think the same thing could happen with whoever those two teams draft

 

Even though Bernard is a legit threat, Mixon has at least the chance of being a three down RB because he is a great receiver. None of the RBs DET or WAS will take are going to be even close to the receiving talents that Thompson/Riddick already are, which makes them gameflow dependent, TD-dependent volatile options with very low floors.

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8 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Even though Bernard is a legit threat, Mixon has at least the chance of being a three down RB because he is a great receiver. None of the RBs DET or WAS will take are going to be even close to the receiving talents that Thompson/Riddick already are, which makes them gameflow dependent, TD-dependent volatile options with very low floors.

 

Both Ronald Jones and Kerryon Johnson have above average pass catching skills, with the former just not getting enough work to show it. if those guys went to either Detroit or Washington, i could see them getting alot of work in the running and passing games

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9 hours ago, mrschrod said:

 

What about the Redskins or Lions? If a high pick is spent in either of these locations, I feel good about that person getting the majority of the work. 

 

9 hours ago, mrschrod said:

 

Ok we are considering true starter vacancies different then. For example, I consider Joe Mixon the lead back even though Gio Bernard is lock down 3rd down back. Mixon will still get some catches though. I think the same thing could happen with whoever those two teams draft

 

8 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Even though Bernard is a legit threat, Mixon has at least the chance of being a three down RB because he is a great receiver. None of the RBs DET or WAS will take are going to be even close to the receiving talents that Thompson/Riddick already are, which makes them gameflow dependent, TD-dependent volatile options with very low floors.

 

Just now, mrschrod said:

 

Both Ronald Jones and Kerryon Johnson have above average pass catching skills, with the former just not getting enough work to show it. if those guys went to either Detroit or Washington, i could see them getting alot of work in the running and passing games

 

@joshua18 honest question, hasn't Thompson had some major injury issues? I feel like his window may have already closed. 

 

Detroit is a mess, I'm surprised Blount got signed by any team particularly this team. Riddick, Abdullah (talk about injuries), and Blount. That already feels crowded. If they take a rookie I'd look for one of these to get cut/traded and it could be Riddick. (they also resigned Zach Zenner but I don't think that affects this conversation)

 

I assumed that the intent of stating the depth for this class was particularly referenced [NFL Teams with RB Needs] + [Rookie RB Talent] = [Fantasy Starters]

 

If that wasn't the intent then I'd like us to add that layer to the conversation.

I don't know that Kamara would be considered the "true starter" in NO yet he was an immediate impact guy. I agree that there are only a few teams where there is a 3 down back opportunity. However, there are only 1 to 5 three-down backs in this draft (I feel like Michel, Chubb, Guice, Penny all have 3 down potential). At that point we start looking at fit and there are probably 18 teams that have 1) some desire to draft a RB and 2) the fit for one of these guys to make a difference. Perrine might have had a chance in a different situation, now he is fantasy dead in WAS.

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