thebrowns

2018 Rookie RB Class

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1 hour ago, thebrowns said:

 

 

 

 

@joshua18 honest question, hasn't Thompson had some major injury issues? I feel like his window may have already closed. 

 

Detroit is a mess, I'm surprised Blount got signed by any team particularly this team. Riddick, Abdullah (talk about injuries), and Blount. That already feels crowded. If they take a rookie I'd look for one of these to get cut/traded and it could be Riddick. (they also resigned Zach Zenner but I don't think that affects this conversation)

 

I assumed that the intent of stating the depth for this class was particularly referenced [NFL Teams with RB Needs] + [Rookie RB Talent] = [Fantasy Starters]

 

If that wasn't the intent then I'd like us to add that layer to the conversation.

I don't know that Kamara would be considered the "true starter" in NO yet he was an immediate impact guy. I agree that there are only a few teams where there is a 3 down back opportunity. However, there are only 1 to 5 three-down backs in this draft (I feel like Michel, Chubb, Guice, Penny all have 3 down potential). At that point we start looking at fit and there are probably 18 teams that have 1) some desire to draft a RB and 2) the fit for one of these guys to make a difference. Perrine might have had a chance in a different situation, now he is fantasy dead in WAS.

 

Thompson was Washington's best player on offense last year. He was their best receiver, is great in pass pro, and knows the offense well (important with a new starting QB). They extended him last season...he's not going anywhere, but he's also not a three-down RB.

 

Riddick is a big reason Stafford has been so good on 3rd down to keep the chains moving. Also on his second contract. Cooter is still there and he likes the RB platoon. 

 

Any of those rookies land on those teams instantly becomes the best RB, but no way are coaches going to give them three-down work and trust their franchise QBs pass protection to them right away as rookies. And this all assumes that Blount and Perine/Kelley don't vulture some GL work from them.

 

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No dynasty leagues here, but I'm finding this thread very helpful for due diligence purposes in redraft.  The rookies with household names who land in good circumstances will be overdrafted from the get go, but evaluating the lesser known rookies now can be invaluable for getting a jump on the WW as the season grinds on.  

 

Only the keenest eye could have appreciated Kamara's potential to carve out a major role as the season progressed.    And although Cohen disappeared for stretches, those who followed him closely coming out knew he had a shot to make noise in Chicago.  

 

Many a winning FF season is built on claiming players a week or two before they become WW darlings.  When it comes to rookie RBs, it's real helpful to hear different perspectives on what impact they might have on the various teams that might take them.  That impact might not occur in 2018, but that is all part of the analysis as you sort though the WW options each week.

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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https://dynastytradecalculator.com/trouble-in-paraguice/

 

An interesting video, highlights some of my concerns with guices vision. Games from 16 and 17.

 

Looked great the 16 season, hampered by injuries in his 17 season which made the tape look relatively average. I battle with guice vs michel as my RB3. Still a great player, but an interesting take none the less for those of you holding that 1.02.

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10 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

https://dynastytradecalculator.com/trouble-in-paraguice/

 

An interesting video, highlights some of my concerns with guices vision. Games from 16 and 17.

 

Looked great the 16 season, hampered by injuries in his 17 season which made the tape look relatively average. I battle with guice vs michel as my RB3. Still a great player, but an interesting take none the less for those of you holding that 1.02.

 

1.05 is my favorite spot currently. Without knowing landing spot I like Michel, Penny, Guice, and Chubb about equally (their skill sets are diverse). 

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1 hour ago, thebrowns said:

 

1.05 is my favorite spot currently. Without knowing landing spot I like Michel, Penny, Guice, and Chubb about equally (their skill sets are diverse). 

 

Agreed. Tho im probably a bit lower on penny, i believe chubb, michel or guice all have the potential to be the second back off the board. It would be chubb for me, currently. Landing spot will change everything tho.

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Is anyone worried about Penny's pass blocking ability?  I heard it's near the bottom of the class.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Is anyone worried about Penny's pass blocking ability?  I heard it's near the bottom of the class.

 

Naw.  He's an extremely intelligent kid, and if that's something he needs to improve on, he's not going to be dragged face first through the process.  He's near the top of the class at everything else.

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everybody talking about Barkley and rightfully so, but I wouldn't be surprised if Guice, Chubb or Michel end up being super star pros. Think about some of the best rbs in the league like Bell and David Johnson that got over looked... pretty sure if we did those drafts over again they would go top ten. 

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I'm rising on John Kelly. I like his build and his skill set. Any chance we see him land in Miami or Los Angeles (Rams)? I'd like to see his compliment to those guys. It would also make me feel better about buying Drake shares.

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How valuable are the 2018 rookie picks when considering trades for established talents (ie. Gurley, Bell, Brown, Hopkins, etc).  I am in need of RB and WR help, and talks are underway involving T. Gurley and T. Hill for my 1.02, 1.03, 1.12, 2.06, and my 2019 1st round pick.  Am I crazy for considering this trade?  

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31 minutes ago, Jinxotx said:

How valuable are the 2018 rookie picks when considering trades for established talents (ie. Gurley, Bell, Brown, Hopkins, etc).  I am in need of RB and WR help, and talks are underway involving T. Gurley and T. Hill for my 1.02, 1.03, 1.12, 2.06, and my 2019 1st round pick.  Am I crazy for considering this trade?  

 

I would take it in a heartbeat

 

I just traded 1.03, 1.09, 2.01, 2.03, 2.07 and 2019 1st and 2nd for Hill, Gordon and Engram

 

I always play for the next year

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1 hour ago, Jinxotx said:

How valuable are the 2018 rookie picks when considering trades for established talents (ie. Gurley, Bell, Brown, Hopkins, etc).  I am in need of RB and WR help, and talks are underway involving T. Gurley and T. Hill for my 1.02, 1.03, 1.12, 2.06, and my 2019 1st round pick.  Am I crazy for considering this trade?  

 

Personally i think that is too high for hill and Gurley alone. I don't like buying a player coming of their best year and a player who is transitioning qbs. See if you can do it without the 2019 1st. I'd wait to make a deal until closer to your draft, those picks will only grow in value. Don't trade now. I'd definitely trade for veterans of your ready to win now. Assuming you didn't earn the 1.02 or 1.03.

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I know he doesn't have a team yet, but how is he not a first rounder in 12 teamers no matter who takes him?  He is going to transform some team in 2018, don't you think?

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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12 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I know he doesn't have a team yet, but how is he not a first rounder in 12 teamers no matter who takes him?  He is going to transform some team in 2018, don't you think?

 

 

Real world NFL I am sure he will be a solid player and goes in the first 6 picks.

 

As a rule I don't touch rookie rb's in the first or even second rounds because there is no measureable aside from preseason work.  The draft is going to be rb deep this season vs previous seasons so I think it's easier to fade Barkley for a more predictable elite player in the 1st.  

Last season guys paid up for cmac and fournette and i grabbed Hunt and kamara cheap.

I won.

Edited by dashoe
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This is actually the third Barkley thread in the main forum before the draft.  It’s probably a record. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I searched, and neither of the previous two threads came up.  Not sure why.

 

Can the mods combine them, or lock two of them?

 

They constantly move them to the college football forums even though Barkley is not in college anymore.   

 

Since the college football forums is about as populated as Antartica in the winter we don’t get much discussion.  ?

 

Lets just value these few minutes of Saquon discussion we can have. 

Edited by Iron-cock

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As someone who took zeke in a bigger league his rookie year, a lot of stars would have to align for me to take Barkley that early in redraft.  Zeke was in a unique position with a great offensive line and a capable offense. 

 

In dynasty he is the 1.1 in all scoring formats. 

Edited by Iron-cock
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If this thread gets the nod, then here is more of my thought process.

 

Gurley, Zeke and Fournette proved that some rookie RBs are just so good that they need to be considered in the second tier, even without a track record. Look at what Cook was doing before he went down.

 

I have traditionally been as skeptical as anyone when it comes to rookie RBs.  But I  am also not dumb enough to ignore recent trends and undeniable data points.

 

If Barkley goes to the Giants, how is he not up there with the likes of Fournette, Cook, Freeman and McCoy in PPR value?  Even on the Browns or Colts, he is somewhat of a sure thing IMO.

 

Where would you slot him in PPR?

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

 

If Barkley goes to the Giants, how is he not up there with the likes of Fournette, Cook, Freeman and McCoy in PPR value?  Even on the Browns or Colts, he is somewhat of a sure thing IMO.

 

Where would you slot him in PPR?

 

 

Simple. Zeke didnt occur in a vaccuum. Before zeke Dallas produced an all pro lNFL leading rusher named Demarco Murray so it wasnt a big leap of logic for zeke to do well.

The Giants have produced exactly what with their running game the last few years?  They are a 3-13 team. same as jax was before drafting Fournette but the key difference is  jax plays in the AFC and the giants play in a a defenisvely stacked NFC.

So there is a bigger leap of faith to take on him having a zeke like year. 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Simple. Zeke didnt occur in a vaccuum. Before zeke Dallas produced an all pro lNFL leading rusher named Demarco Murray so it wasnt a big leap of logic for zeke to do well.

The Giants have produced exactly what with their running game the last few years?  They are a 3-13 team. same as jax was before drafting Fournette but the key difference is  jax plays in the AFC and the giants play in a a defenisvely stacked NFC.

So there is a bigger leap of faith to take on him having a zeke like year. 

 

Perhaps, but Fournette (AFC or not), Gurley (O-line not great) and Cook (O-line not great either) all hit the ground running (no pun intended).  Barkley, IMO, is more complete and explosive than any of them.

 

I'll reiterate.  I am very conservative when it comes to rookies, even highly regarded rookie RBs.   But I already see Barkley as a reasonably good gamble as a RB1 regardless of where he ends up.  He'll be used heavily by whoever drafts him, and I bet he produces well even if the supporting cast isn't equal to what Zeke enjoyed his first season.

 

There are still many data points to collect, so my mind may change, but that's how I am seeing things right now as I begin to compile my initial RB tiers.

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33 minutes ago, The Answer said:

Chances the browns don’t take Barkley?

 

50/50

 

they either do or they don’t 

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We're breaking tradition a little bit by allowing this thread.  We have to draw the line between college and NFL players somewhere, and we have set when they are drafted as the bright line standard.  Once they have a team, we can begin to actually discuss their potential fantasy impact without all the clutter of draft speculation.  Until such time as prospects are drafted, all discussion of prospects needs to be confined to these positional class pages.

 

 

I don't believe a TE thread has been created.

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