thebrowns

2018 Rookie RB Class

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On 7/17/2018 at 3:49 PM, Magoo said:

Ronald Jones seems a little undervalued to me.  I could see him skyrocketing up the rankings during preseason.

I've been thinking about this as well. And K Johnson as mentioned above. If I cant grab Guice I may try to snag RoJo and Johnson in a couple keeper leagues.  I think their value could be quite good.  Where people are drafting Guice/Penny/Michel I may just draft the best WR available then if people are reaching for RBs and then I will grab one or two of RoJo, Johnson and maybe even take a stab at Freeman.

 

So much potential in this draft and I'd love to own Barkley or Guice in a couple leagues but I think they will go earlier than I'd like.  

 

RoJo can catch the ball and Sims has done nothing with his chances.  Moreover Barber doesn't scare me much.   Could possibly pick up Jones mid 5th round maybe? Not bad for a starting RB who should get his fair share of targets this year.

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Just a month ago I got laughed at for thinking Ronald Jones might be a good draft pick...

So many Fantasy Footballers are dismissive / biased.

Edited by ponza88

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4 hours ago, ponza88 said:

Just a month ago I got laughed at for thinking Ronald Jones might be a good draft pick...

So many Fantasy Footballers are dismissive / biased.

 

Which is why you should always stick with your own analysis, no matter who or how many people mock or criticize you. 

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On 5/11/2018 at 2:19 PM, ponza88 said:

John Kelly is really good.

Mark this post, quote me on it during the season. :)

too bad Gurley just signed a extension.  can always grab Chase Edmonds for when DJ gets hurt 

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A Gurley extension doesn't = guaranteed health.  I like Kelly as well.  I don't expect much out of him, but who knows, you could do worse with your last pick in the draft.  Maybe McVay and staff decide to give Kelly a few touches each game to help preserve the massive investment they just made.  Doesn't make sense to run Gurley into the ground year after year when he's locked up for the next 6.  Gurley averaged 23 touches a game last year which was 4thin the league - obviously a lot of touches.  Maybe they dial it down a bit given their significant investment in him. 

 

I expect Kelly to be more talented than Malcom Brown, so he should get Brown's 74 total touches.  Plus Tavon Austin isn't around anymore, so those 59 rushing attempts will go somewhere.  I don't think they pile more on to Gurley's plate, so maybe Cooks still gets about 15 trick play type rushes, and Kelly gets the other 44.  That would give Kelly 118 total touches, before we even take anything from Gurley.  If we can take away 42 touches from Gurley's count last year, that gives Kelly an even 10 touches per game.  That still gives Gurley 20 touches a game, which is still significant.

 

If Kelly can carve out 10 touches a game, that would put him around guys like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Rex Burkhead.  Again, not a band investment for your last pick in the draft.  Realistically I expect Kelly to be between 8-10 touches a game.  128-160 for the season.

 

And if Todd Gurley has any injury this year, Kelly could turn into a league winner.

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7 hours ago, cdd10 said:

too bad Gurley just signed a extension.  can always grab Chase Edmonds for when DJ gets hurt 


??? That doesn't affect John Kelly at all.......?

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5 hours ago, ponza88 said:


??? That doesn't affect John Kelly at all.......?

i suppose it would since gurley is like zeke is to the cowboys, their everything. but you could be right. he could see fantasy relevance in 2023. 

 

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1 hour ago, cdd10 said:

i suppose it would since gurley is like zeke is to the cowboys, their everything. but you could be right. he could see fantasy relevance in 2023. 

 

By then they will have drafted a new flavor....no one rides pine anymore for 4 years and goes somewhere to start.... they've either traded for them or drafted another back already.... dudes in fantasy wasteland without gurley injury

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23 minutes ago, hard1 said:

By then they will have drafted a new flavor....no one rides pine anymore for 4 years and goes somewhere to start.... they've either traded for them or drafted another back already.... dudes in fantasy wasteland without gurley injury

not to mention he isn't even that great well not imo. he is about the 14th-15th best RB in the class. i suppose he could exceed expectations i'm not just gonna straight gas the dude. 

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On 7/19/2018 at 4:33 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Which is why you should always stick with your own analysis, no matter who or how many people mock or criticize you. 

 

That depends on if your analysis sucks or not.

 

 

Edited by Iron-cock

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6 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

That depends on if your analysis sucks or not.

 

Best way to figure out whether it sucked though. I prefer making my own mistakes to repeating someone else's.

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9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Best way to figure out whether it sucked though. I prefer making my own mistakes to repeating someone else's.

 

Personally any valuable information I'll consider, and there are a few guys on here I pay attention to if my opinion radically differs from theirs.

 

It's up to you, all I'm saying is you should evaluate yourself too if you're always horribly wrong.  Not that you are...

 

 

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1 minute ago, Iron-cock said:

there are a few guys on here I pay attention to if my opinion radically differs from theirs

Oh absolutely. I know enough to know I know nothing, and differing opinions are always interesting.
But in the end _I_ take the decision, _I_ fail, and then it's up to _me_ to change. No-one else.

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20 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

A Gurley extension doesn't = guaranteed health.  I like Kelly as well.  I don't expect much out of him, but who knows, you could do worse with your last pick in the draft.  Maybe McVay and staff decide to give Kelly a few touches...

.....

If Kelly can carve out 10 touches a game, that would put him around guys like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Rex Burkhead.  Again, not a band investment for your last pick in the draft.  Realistically I expect Kelly to be between 8-10 touches a game.  128-160 for the season.

 

And if Todd Gurley has any injury this year, Kelly could turn into a league winner.

 

On 7/25/2018 at 3:27 AM, cdd10 said:

too bad Gurley just signed a extension.  can always grab Chase Edmonds for when DJ gets hurt 

 

19 hours ago, ponza88 said:


??? That doesn't affect John Kelly at all.......?

 

13 hours ago, cdd10 said:

i suppose it would since gurley is like zeke is to the cowboys, their everything. but you could be right. he could see fantasy relevance in 2023. 

 

 

12 hours ago, hard1 said:

By then they will have drafted a new flavor....no one rides pine anymore for 4 years and goes somewhere to start.... they've either traded for them or drafted another back already.... dudes in fantasy wasteland without gurley injury

 

11 hours ago, cdd10 said:

not to mention he isn't even that great well not imo. he is about the 14th-15th best RB in the class. i suppose he could exceed expectations i'm not just gonna straight gas the dude. 

 

7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

That depends on if your analysis sucks or not.

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Best way to figure out whether it sucked though. I prefer making my own mistakes to repeating someone else's.

 

7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Personally any valuable information I'll consider, and there are a few guys on here I pay attention to if my opinion radically differs from theirs.

 

It's up to you, all I'm saying is you should evaluate yourself too if you're always horribly wrong.  Not that you are...

 

 

 

7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Oh absolutely. I know enough to know I know nothing, and differing opinions are always interesting.
But in the end _I_ take the decision, _I_ fail, and then it's up to _me_ to change. No-one else.

 

 

1) kudos to @cdd10 for some quality practice aggressiveness. 

 

2) i appreciate the argumentsin favor of John Kelly. 

2a) picking a late/last round flyer it's fun, when has a fourth/fifth round pick been a world beater their rookie season? 

2b) there is a decent argument for Kelly IF he gets that backup role

2c) Kelly doesn't have to be elite. While he is not a top overall prospect in this class he is a top receiving back. 

2d) Three extension doesn't matter,  because the argument for Kelly, as a late round pick, was made with his role as a backup in mind.

2e) I agree,  it can be helpful to explore different viewpoints. 

2f) failing on my last rookie pick it's no big deal. 

2g) don't take Kelly in rounds 1-2 (3 would be questionable) 

3) Kelly could perform well enough to be trade bait, i don't expect him to ever be a contributor. I have already identified trade partners who will give a 2nd for a rookie back showing promise. 

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Well, I know we're only 3 weeks in, but other than Barkley, it would be an understatement to say this class has been a huge disappointment.

1. Barkley

2. Guice

.........???

 

Is a 50/50 RBBC the best we can hope for from the rest of this group? I would probably rank Lindsay 3rd if I had to right now. Heck, some of these guys can't even make the active roster on game days. 

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2 hours ago, machine3 said:

Well, I know we're only 3 weeks in, but other than Barkley, it would be an understatement to say this class has been a huge disappointment.

1. Barkley

2. Guice

.........???

 

Is a 50/50 RBBC the best we can hope for from the rest of this group? I would probably rank Lindsay 3rd if I had to right now. Heck, some of these guys can't even make the active roster on game days. 

Guice was injured and we have no idea what he will actually be like in real NFL games.

 

So far the only notable rookie RB producing is Barkley. And Lindsay, but he wasn't touted at all. Kerryon looked good last week, but I don't think Blount's role is going away.

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