thebrowns

2018 Rookie RB Class

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16 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

The comparison in the NFL right now imo is Melvin Gordon, Penny is that type of back, good all around back who will have some monster games if given a chance.  Was one of the best kick returners in college as well

 

Penny moved up to my no 4 (depending on situation, could even be my no 2 rb off board)

 

 

45 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

230 lb guys that can catch and were excellent kick returners are rare players... like DJ and Mixon rare.   They possess special qualities that you just can't teach.

 

I personally have Penny #2 atm in a vacuum.

 

There is a lot of depth in this class. In a vacuum, it is difficult to decide for sure where guys should go. To me the top two are given, the only way Guice lands in a bad position is if someone stupidly drafts him when they already have a top back (feels like something Jerry would do).

 

3-8 is really hard for me. I like the skills of all of them. Given the right situation they all could rise to the top spot in this tier. I'm sure that some might break this tier into two groups.

 

I'm not sold on Michel even though I've moved him back up. He's bigger than I thought he was. He moves like someone who is smaller. There is something about Royce Freeman that I really like.

 

I've dropped Ballage, 1) I think he might be switching position 2) it had been too long since I saw his tape; the senior bowl brought back the nightmares. He has great measurables; hopefully, he can develop into a T. Hill type player.

 

I've plummetted Coleman. I love his 2016 stuff, sometimes love clouds good judgment. His 2017 sucked.

 

I'm super intrigued by Jaylen Samuels.

 

What do you guys think of this updated list?

 

    Name School +-200lbs
1 RB Saquon Barkley Penn State +
2 RB Derrius Guice LSU +
3 RB Sony Michel Georgia +
4 RB Royce Freeman Oregon +
5 RB Rashaad Penny SD ST +
6 RB Nick Chubb Georgia +
7 RB Ronald Jones USC +
8 RB Kerryon Johnson Auburn +
9 RB Mark Walton Miami +
10 RB Josh Adams Notre Dame +
11 RB John Kelly Tennesse +
12 RB/WR Kalen Ballage Arizona State +
13 TE/RB Jaylen Samuels North Carolina St +
14 RB Akrum Wadley Iowa -
15 RB Nyheim Hines NC State -
16 RB Ty Johnson Maryland +
17 RB Ito Smith Southern Miss -
18 RB Kamryn Pettway Auburn +
19 RB Bo Scarbrough Alabama +
20 RB Kyle Hicks TCU +
21 RB Justin Jackson Northwestern -
22 RB Larry Rose New Mexico St -
23 RB Lavon Coleman Washington +

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I think Ito Smith could jump a lot of people at the end of the day. He might be 5'9'' 195 but he plays big. Could be a real nice complimentary back somewhere, and may be a better pro back than Jalen Richard, another Southern Miss guy. 

 

I think you're too high on Royce Freeman. I watch him and I can't think of one thing he does better than Rashaad Penny, Chubb, Johnson, or Jones. I don't think his ceiling is that high. Maybe a Jordan Howard at best except Royce to me doesn't run that powerfully for being 230. Ronald Jones runs with more power than Freeman and is probably going to weigh in at 200. 

 

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My list:

1. Saquan Barkley

2. Sony Michel

3. Derrius Guice

4. Rashaad Penny

5. Ronald Jones

6. Nick Chubb

7. Kerryon Johnson

 

I may be the only person who has Michel (5'11" 216#) over Guice (5'11" 218#) and I'm open to the possibility of being wrong.  But I was simply completely awestruck by what I saw in the CFB Playoff games.  His feet are lightning.  He is so fast, so dynamic.  That's nothing against Guice, I just fell in love with what I saw against big time competition.  Both are the perfect size for an RB.  Both are dynamic running and receiving.  I might change my mind of Guice measures better in the 40 and 3 cone at the combine, but just watching Michel dominate against the best of the best put him over the top for me.

 

I put Penny over Jones for his size.  5'11" 220# vs 6'0" 201#.  I think Penny can be a true 3-down workhorse who can bang between the tackles, break long runs, and catch the ball.  He reminds me a little of Le'Veon Bell with his smooth running style, tackle breaking, and also dynamic ability in space and receiving.  Jones reminds me more of Jamaal Charles.  Probably the fastest, most electric of anyone not named Barkley.  I just worry about his size.  If I'm an NFL team I don't trust that he can carry the load for my team right now.  I have no doubts he'll be a difference maker in the pros, I just want a guy with more power if the other factors are close enough.

 

I am more down on Chubb than most.  I admittedly have not watched a ton of UGA football but I get the impression Chubb is limited in the passing game.  RBs these days need to excel on all three downs.  I would love to see Chubb replace Stewart in Carolina as the starting RB and primary early down thumper.  Imagine Cam, Chubb, and CMac on the field at the same time... Instead of Cam, Stewart, and CMac.

 

Teams that need to upgrade starting RB:

NFC: Lions, Giants, Bucs, Panthers, Seahawks

AFC: Browns, Jets, Raiders, Maybe-Colts, Maybe-Texans

 

Raiders, Bucs, and Lions in that order jump out as the best situations for a guy to come in and take a bellcow role for themselves and be fantasy relevant.  As a Lions fan I dream that we pull the trigger on Michel -- he's as electric as Abdullah (who I hope is gone) but with a lot more power between the tackles.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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9 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

My list:

1. Saquan Barkley

2. Sony Michel

3. Derrius Guice

4. Rashaad Penny

5. Ronald Jones

6. Nick Chubb

7. Kerryon Johnson

 

I may be the only person who has Michel (5'11" 216#) over Guice (5'11" 218#) and I'm open to the possibility of being wrong.  But I was simply completely awestruck by what I saw in the CFB Playoff games.  His feet are lightning.  He is so fast, so dynamic.  That's nothing against Guice, I just fell in love with what I saw against big time competition.  Both are the perfect size for an RB.  Both are dynamic running and receiving.  I might change my mind of Guice measures better in the 40 and 3 cone at the combine, but just watching Michel dominate against the best of the best put him over the top for me.

 

I put Penny over Jones for his size.  5'11" 220# vs 6'0" 201#.  I think Penny can be a true 3-down workhorse who can bang between the tackles, break long runs, and catch the ball.  He reminds me a little of Le'Veon Bell with his smooth running style, tackle breaking, and also dynamic ability in space and receiving.  Jones reminds me more of Jamaal Charles.  Probably the fastest, most electric of anyone not named Barkley.  I just worry about his size.  If I'm an NFL team I don't trust that he can carry the load for my team right now.  I have no doubts he'll be a difference maker in the pros, I just want a guy with more power if the other factors are close enough.

 

I am more down on Chubb than most.  I admittedly have not watched a ton of UGA football but I get the impression Chubb is limited in the passing game.  RBs these days need to excel on all three downs.  I would love to see Chubb replace Stewart in Carolina as the starting RB and primary early down thumper.  Imagine Cam, Chubb, and CMac on the field at the same time... Instead of Cam, Stewart, and CMac.

 

Teams that need to upgrade starting RB:

NFC: Lions, Giants, Bucs, Panthers, Seahawks

AFC: Browns, Jets, Raiders, Maybe-Colts, Maybe-Texans

 

Raiders, Bucs, and Lions in that order jump out as the best situations for a guy to come in and take a bellcow role for themselves and be fantasy relevant.  As a Lions fan I dream that we pull the trigger on Michel -- he's as electric as Abdullah (who I hope is gone) but with a lot more power between the tackles.

As a fellow follower of the lovable loser Lions I'd rather see Guice who epitomizes the Detroit blue collar get in your grill attacking attitude & style. Barry was fun to watch but aloof. Derrius is fierce and ferocious. Detroit would go crazy if he was able to do for us what Dalvin did for the Vikes.

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2 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

As a fellow follower of the lovable loser Lions I'd rather see Guice who epitomizes the Detroit blue collar get in your grill attacking attitude & style. Barry was fun to watch but aloof. Derrius is fierce and ferocious. Detroit would go crazy if he was able to do for us what Dalvin did for the Vikes.

You convinced me lol

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1 hour ago, boltup15 said:

I think Ito Smith could jump a lot of people at the end of the day. He might be 5'9'' 195 but he plays big. Could be a real nice complimentary back somewhere, and may be a better pro back than Jalen Richard, another Southern Miss guy. 

 

I think you're too high on Royce Freeman. I watch him and I can't think of one thing he does better than Rashaad Penny, Chubb, Johnson, or Jones. I don't think his ceiling is that high. Maybe a Jordan Howard at best except Royce to me doesn't run that powerfully for being 230. Ronald Jones runs with more power than Freeman and is probably going to weigh in at 200. 

 

 

You're probably right about Freeman. I tend to fall in love with one trait. He does a great job of being patient and moving through holes. That change of direction melts me. 

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11 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

You're probably right about Freeman. I tend to fall in love with one trait. He does a great job of being patient and moving through holes. That change of direction melts me. 

 

His change of direction is not that good though. He's got agility when moving around between the tackles but he's no where near elite in that category. That's where I think he's similar to Jordan Howard though.

 

From an unbiased opinion I think you like his patience and it reminds you of Bell, and because of that you like Freeman more. But he can't cut or change directions like Jones or Penny can. I think he's a poor man's Kerryon Johnson but still good. I'd maybe consider Ballage over Freeman because of his upside. 

 

For the record I do like Freeman even though it doesn't sound like it. 

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2 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

His change of direction is not that good though. He's got agility when moving around between the tackles but he's no where near elite in that category. That's where I think he's similar to Jordan Howard though.

 

From an unbiased opinion I think you like his patience and it reminds you of Bell, and because of that you like Freeman more. But he can't cut or change directions like Jones or Penny can. I think he's a poor man's Kerryon Johnson but still good. I'd maybe consider Ballage over Freeman because of his upside. 

 

For the record I do like Freeman even though it doesn't sound like it. 

 

You nailed it. Everyone is looking to hit on the nest whoever. I'll move Freeman back, pay of the predraft evaluation is hearing perspectives. I like Penny even though I posted about what i perceive to be growing edges and limitations to his game. 

 

For any player it is easy to fall in love with the highlights and ignore the other 80% of the tape. 

 

I'm really interested to see where Michel lands. 

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Anyone got a hot take on Mark walton? 

 

Hearing his name here and there. His tape has some nice moments. Nice lateral agility. Good vision. Elusive. But he didnt look very fast on tape. I didnt think he was very explosive either i.e burst off the line or acceleration. More quick then fast. Not the biggest but not the smallest. Interested if anyone watched him on a regular basis 

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14 hours ago, thebrowns said:

 

You nailed it. Everyone is looking to hit on the nest whoever. I'll move Freeman back, pay of the predraft evaluation is hearing perspectives. I like Penny even though I posted about what i perceive to be growing edges and limitations to his game. 

 

For any player it is easy to fall in love with the highlights and ignore the other 80% of the tape. 

 

I'm really interested to see where Michel lands. 

 

i think based off your list currently i'd have Freeman in that 7-9 range, mostly bc i don't know if he has the big game breaker/upside ability as a few others ahead on that list may possess..

That being said, i think Freeman is going to be a really good pro player.  A Pro's Pro type guy.   He does a little bit of everything pretty well.  Well balanced one cut runner who has decent burst on his cut.  Good blocker, good ball security, and has decent hands catching out of the backfield.  He's more elusive and can break one on one tackles better then most want to give him credit for as well.  I'd like to see him not dance around inside the tackles as much or when he has open lanes, he tries to fool himself at times into thinking his lateral quickness is better then is really is.

 

  His PAC 12 numbers are nothing to laugh at either.  i LOVE the fact that he went back for his Senior year, and it was a dang good one.  He's been a very productive player in college and i think he's going to enter the NFL draft as one of the most knowledgable players at his position.  I think his skill set in full translates well at the next level.  He's far more polished then most on that list, IMO.  

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So, which are the 5 worst places for an RB to be drafted (for fantasy purposes)? Because you know at least 3 of the top guys will go to such teams.

 

My suggestions: 

NE, CAR, PHI, ATL, Rams/ARI

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5 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Anyone got a hot take on Mark walton? 

 

Hearing his name here and there. His tape has some nice moments. Nice lateral agility. Good vision. Elusive. But he didnt look very fast on tape. I didnt think he was very explosive either i.e burst off the line or acceleration. More quick then fast. Not the biggest but not the smallest. Interested if anyone watched him on a regular basis 

 

Also a pretty good receiver. Could be a three down back if he gains a little weight. Have seen him mocked 2nd to 4th round.

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On 1/29/2018 at 2:46 PM, thebrowns said:

 

 

There is a lot of depth in this class. In a vacuum, it is difficult to decide for sure where guys should go. To me the top two are given, the only way Guice lands in a bad position is if someone stupidly drafts him when they already have a top back (feels like something Jerry would do).

 

3-8 is really hard for me. I like the skills of all of them. Given the right situation they all could rise to the top spot in this tier. I'm sure that some might break this tier into two groups.

 

I'm not sold on Michel even though I've moved him back up. He's bigger than I thought he was. He moves like someone who is smaller. There is something about Royce Freeman that I really like.

 

I've dropped Ballage, 1) I think he might be switching position 2) it had been too long since I saw his tape; the senior bowl brought back the nightmares. He has great measurables; hopefully, he can develop into a T. Hill type player.

 

I've plummetted Coleman. I love his 2016 stuff, sometimes love clouds good judgment. His 2017 sucked.

 

I'm super intrigued by Jaylen Samuels.

 

What do you guys think of this updated list?

 

 

    Name School +-200lbs
1 RB Saquon Barkley Penn State +
2 RB Derrius Guice LSU +
3 RB Sony Michel Georgia +
4 RB Royce Freeman Oregon +
5 RB Rashaad Penny SD ST +
6 RB Nick Chubb Georgia +
7 RB Ronald Jones USC +
8 RB Kerryon Johnson Auburn +
9 RB Mark Walton Miami +
10 RB Josh Adams Notre Dame +
11 RB John Kelly Tennesse +
12 RB/WR Kalen Ballage Arizona State +
13 TE/RB Jaylen Samuels North Carolina St +
14 RB Akrum Wadley Iowa -
15 RB Nyheim Hines NC State -
16 RB Ty Johnson Maryland +
17 RB Ito Smith Southern Miss -
18 RB Kamryn Pettway Auburn +
19 RB Bo Scarbrough Alabama +
20 RB Kyle Hicks TCU +
21 RB Justin Jackson Northwestern -
22 RB Larry Rose New Mexico St -
23 RB Lavon Coleman Washington +

has anyone else noticed how many of the top rbs coming out this year are over 200 lbs and some are well over the 225 range even. cant seem to quit wonering why certain people keep "bashing" me and a few others on these threads about how nfl teams are trending back to more of a power run attack and that rbs are getting bigger to hold up better to the pounding of that style. the college game is there and they are producing these rbs. the nfl is running many 3-4 Ds with smaller faster linebackers for pass coverage. if you want to beat that, you get a big power runner and get him into open territory or for sure in linebacker/secondary space????? ah la...........derrick henry......hahahahahahahahahaha

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1 minute ago, not an nfl scout said:

 

There is a lot of depth in this class. In a vacuum, it is difficult to decide for sure where guys should go. To me the top two are given, the only way Guice lands in a bad position is if someone stupidly drafts him when they already have a top back (feels like something Jerry would do).

this kinda pisses me off, because jerry's drafting has produced emmitt smith, demarco murray, and now ezekeiel elliott.......so how is that stupid if elliott would have some more "personal problems" off the field and jerry would decide to add another rb for insurance with his big line???????    WTF?

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7 minutes ago, not an nfl scout said:

this kinda pisses me off, because jerry's drafting has produced emmitt smith, demarco murray, and now ezekeiel elliott.......so how is that stupid if elliott would have some more "personal problems" off the field and jerry would decide to add another rb for insurance with his big line???????    WTF?

 

I'm talking about FF purposes. I would have two solid young backs if i was in charge of player personnel. To me this is like playing IDP and saying the chiefs stupidly drop Justin Houston back into coverage. It fits their scheme but hurts fantasy owners. NO with Kamara and Mark Ingram  feels like an outlier. 

 

But feel free to get upset.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

So, which are the 5 worst places for an RB to be drafted (for fantasy purposes)? Because you know at least 3 of the top guys will go to such teams.

 

My suggestions: 

NE, CAR, PHI, ATL, Rams/ARI

 

Would you add IND to the list? I can't remember what McDaniels did at RB in DEN. They already have Mack but i could see him building a committee. 

 

Additionally, I've been burned by picking up DEN backs in the past. No consistency. 

 

I'm interested too see what the chiefs do. They should focus on OL and Defense; if Ware isn't right i could see them using a mid round pick, hunt needs a second back. 

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13 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

I'm talking about FF purposes. I would have two solid young backs if i was in charge of player personnel. To me this is like playing IDP and saying the chiefs stupidly drop Justin Houston back into coverage. It fits their scheme but hurts fantasy owners. NO with Kamara and Mark Ingram  feels like an outlier. 

 

But feel free to get upset.

pardon me.....misunderstood the point the comment was referred to.....i thought it was another "shot" at jerry jones......remember.....this is more stephen jones' show now when it comes to the draft???? you may not believe that, but watch their war room this year at the draft and you will see who is on the phone more.

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On 1/29/2018 at 8:14 PM, Lord_Varys said:

My list:

1. Saquan Barkley

2. Sony Michel

3. Derrius Guice

4. Rashaad Penny

5. Ronald Jones

6. Nick Chubb

7. Kerryon Johnson

 

I may be the only person who has Michel (5'11" 216#) over Guice (5'11" 218#) and I'm open to the possibility of being wrong.  But I was simply completely awestruck by what I saw in the CFB Playoff games.  His feet are lightning.  He is so fast, so dynamic.  That's nothing against Guice, I just fell in love with what I saw against big time competition.  Both are the perfect size for an RB.  Both are dynamic running and receiving.  I might change my mind of Guice measures better in the 40 and 3 cone at the combine, but just watching Michel dominate against the best of the best put him over the top for me.

 

I put Penny over Jones for his size.  5'11" 220# vs 6'0" 201#.  I think Penny can be a true 3-down workhorse who can bang between the tackles, break long runs, and catch the ball.  He reminds me a little of Le'Veon Bell with his smooth running style, tackle breaking, and also dynamic ability in space and receiving.  Jones reminds me more of Jamaal Charles.  Probably the fastest, most electric of anyone not named Barkley.  I just worry about his size.  If I'm an NFL team I don't trust that he can carry the load for my team right now.  I have no doubts he'll be a difference maker in the pros, I just want a guy with more power if the other factors are close enough.

 

I am more down on Chubb than most.  I admittedly have not watched a ton of UGA football but I get the impression Chubb is limited in the passing game.  RBs these days need to excel on all three downs.  I would love to see Chubb replace Stewart in Carolina as the starting RB and primary early down thumper.  Imagine Cam, Chubb, and CMac on the field at the same time... Instead of Cam, Stewart, and CMac.

 

Teams that need to upgrade starting RB:

NFC: Lions, Giants, Bucs, Panthers, Seahawks

AFC: Browns, Jets, Raiders, Maybe-Colts, Maybe-Texans

 

Raiders, Bucs, and Lions in that order jump out as the best situations for a guy to come in and take a bellcow role for themselves and be fantasy relevant.  As a Lions fan I dream that we pull the trigger on Michel -- he's as electric as Abdullah (who I hope is gone) but with a lot more power between the tackles.

I like Michel better than Guice too

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I also think Chubb will be better than people think. The sentiment has now turned on him. Still a talent. UGA doesn’t throw much. Maybe he can catch passes? He’s a good RB and my hope is he goes to a good team.

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7 hours ago, vikingapocalypse said:

Anyone got a hot take on Mark walton? 

 

Hearing his name here and there. His tape has some nice moments. Nice lateral agility. Good vision. Elusive. But he didnt look very fast on tape. I didnt think he was very explosive either i.e burst off the line or acceleration. More quick then fast. Not the biggest but not the smallest. Interested if anyone watched him on a regular basis 

 

2 hours ago, petekrum said:

 

Also a pretty good receiver. Could be a three down back if he gains a little weight. Have seen him mocked 2nd to 4th round.

 

"agility, acceleration, vision, and receiving ability" are common words I hear regarding Walton. Currently, without knowing fit, I've seen him projected as a second to third round FF option. In the four mocks i've been part of he has gone: 48, 43, 40, and 25. All were full PPR - that's where the value is.

 

More than one Hurricane fan has encouraged people not to draft him (I'm always interested to hear what people have to say who are rooting for a player to help their college team win). I've heard other FF pundits say not to let him slip through your hands; especially if you need a high floor guy to help compete right away. I think that I'd be happy with him in the 40's right now. Seems to be a tough kid.

 

SEASON ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD
2017 56 428 7.6 82 3 7 91 13 39 0
2016 209 1117 5.3 80 14 27 240 8.9 30 1
2015 129 450 3.5 27 9 22 293 13.3 41 1

 

9/29/2017 - Miami vs Duke [the #48 Rush Defense/#21 Overall Defense]

 

Carries: 17

YDS: 51 (3.0 avg)

Rush TDS: 0

 

Receptions: 4

YDS: 79 (19.8)

Receving TDS: 0

 

The line looked poor in this game. He missed one or two blocks himself. There was a drop there. He does a decent job of making some plays and seems to have good hips.

 

 

 

10/7/2017 - Miami @ Florida State [the #31 Rush Defense/#18 Total Defense]

 

Carries: 12

YDS: 25 (2.1 avg)

Rush TDS: 0

 

Receptions: 0

YDS: 0

Receving TDS: 0

 

The numbers aren't great but there was only one read that was really awful. That protection looks porous. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Wild Thing said:

I also think Chubb will be better than people think. The sentiment has now turned on him. Still a talent. UGA doesn’t throw much. Maybe he can catch passes? He’s a good RB and my hope is he goes to a good team.

 

I'm interested to see where he tests and where he lands. Is it appropriate to say that Chubb has elite level vision? I still think that he will continue to improve athletically. I just want to see that he is still improving; Gurley had a potential "career-ending" injury right? 

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5 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

Based upon skillset and talent, Josh Adams or Mark Walton?

 

Walton.

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7 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

Based upon skillset and talent, Josh Adams or Mark Walton?

2 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

Walton.

 

This is where I'm leaning. What is your reasoning?

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4 minutes ago, thebrowns said:

 

This is where I'm leaning. What is your reasoning?

 

Mostly the eye test. I just wasn’t that impressed watching Adams. 

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