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Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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3 hours ago, Brotherbock said:

 

Is that the royal we, or your family? Or do you mean everyone who's reading this thread?

 

I don't see how a play by play is helpful to a player outlook thread.

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6 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I don't see how a play by play is helpful to a player outlook thread.

 

You don't see how a post describing how he was used, game flow, and how someone ran as helpful to evaluating player performance? 

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Really should have had a second TD there at the end. Can't believe they went away from him there in favor of Gabbert. Must have been gassed. Feel like he should have had a much bigger day after that first drive.

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On 12/19/2018 at 3:29 PM, viciousphilpy said:

 

Zeke, Damien Williams, Elijah McGuire.

 

i also have Jamaal Williams, who will be right beside Derrick Henry on the pine.

Question ^ was who are you starting over him?

On 12/19/2018 at 4:58 PM, dmb3684 said:

 

I disagree with your decisions.

You were right, I should have sat ZEKE

 

:)

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I was a Hunt owner going for a first round bye.  Then the fiasco.  Then someone dropped Henry week 13.  I picked up for depth and people prob laughed at me.  Rest is history and he was my MVP to the championship.

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Mariota being out could mean we might see Henry with possibly 30 plus touches.... but it could also mean the opposite.... if Colts come out firing, Titans will have no choice but to air it out with Gabbert...

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11 hours ago, viciousphilpy said:

Question ^ was who are you starting over him?

You were right, I should have sat ZEKE

 

:)

 

I said you should sit Zeke? Where?

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4 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I said you should sit Zeke? Where?

It was a joke, because he was the only one of the three who didn't outscore Henry. 

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Sunday night showdown and I think this will be the defining game for the Titans and Derricks marriage to each other. I hope game flow keeps Derrick involved all 4. Anyone have insight to his production this week?

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Henry will remain a very polarizing player but I’m happy I remained patient and he was a big factor for my RB starved team in the playoffs, becoming my de facto RB1 and helping me take 2nd place. For that, I’m very grateful. 

 

Moving forward I think it’s up to the coaches to get him his touches and to continue to build an offensive system around him. The Titans have a good young defense coming together so a run-heavy/ball-control offense seems like a good fit. Especially now with all the uncertainty around Mariota’s health, or even to some degree his ability as a passer. 

 

It will be interesting to see if Corey Davis will be able to flourish in the same system. I owned both all year in my keeper league and there were moments where I was very optimistic about Davis’ future (and pessimistic about Henry’s) but at this point it feels like more of the pieces are in place for Henry to thrive than Davis...

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6 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

Henry will remain a very polarizing player but I’m happy I remained patient and he was a big factor for my RB starved team in the playoffs, becoming my de facto RB1 and helping me take 2nd place. For that, I’m very grateful. 

 

Moving forward I think it’s up to the coaches to get him his touches and to continue to build an offensive system around him. The Titans have a good young defense coming together so a run-heavy/ball-control offense seems like a good fit. Especially now with all the uncertainty around Mariota’s health, or even to some degree his ability as a passer. 

 

It will be interesting to see if Corey Davis will be able to flourish in the same system. I owned both all year in my keeper league and there were moments where I was very optimistic about Davis’ future (and pessimistic about Henry’s) but at this point it feels like more of the pieces are in place for Henry to thrive than Davis...

This team is weird. They have a good WR and still ranked at the bottom of the league in pass attempts

 

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Another 100 yard game for the chosen one.  8/10 last games in double digit fantasy points.

 

Top 15 RB next year

 

Since Week 6 in HPPR (12 TDs over that span):

 

13.50

10.20

17.80

4.60

3.90

11.50

50.80

32.74

15.70

11.10

 

Now imagine if Titans weren't a dumpster fire.

Edited by mmm sod
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On 12/29/2018 at 7:56 PM, cashvillesent said:

This team is weird. They have a good WR and still ranked at the bottom of the league in pass attempts

 

Their QB sucks and they don't have anything outside of Corey Davis. They had a bunch of injuries at TE.

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QB is a HUGE problem for Tennessee.

 

They still refuse to throw Henry the ball at all ( how predictable are you trying to make your offense?) 

 

All that being said the big fella showed what he was capable of when given a good opportunity and was able to scrounge together a 1,000 yard season with 12 TDs despite the dysfunction around him.

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

QB is a HUGE problem for Tennessee.

 

They still refuse to throw Henry the ball at all ( how predictable are you trying to make your offense?) 

 

All that being said the big fella showed what he was capable of when given a good opportunity and was able to scrounge together a 1,000 yard season with 12 TDs despite the dysfunction around him.

 

 

 

 

 

Sorry, forgot to mention that in my fantasy league Derrick Henry finished as the #1 overall RB for weeks 13-16.

(AKA the fantasy football playoffs)

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I survived my Championship round vs this beast.

 

Thank you Henry for going easy on me and not destroying my teams chances! :P

 

but grats to him 1k yard season, arrow pointing up if they ditch Marcus.  Even Foles on Titans is a playoff team.

Edited by Zak0221

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On 30/12/2018 at 11:56 AM, cashvillesent said:

This team is weird. They have a good WR and still ranked at the bottom of the league in pass attempts

 

 

12 hours ago, devaster said:

Their QB sucks and they don't have anything outside of Corey Davis. They had a bunch of injuries at TE.

So

- they can't get their 2nd overall pick QB going

- they can't get the ball to their #5 overall pick WR

- they couldn't get their Heisman trophy RB going until an outsider told him to start running for real

 

Anyone see a pattern here or is that just me?

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The problem is the Titans are in the worst possible position you can be in as an NFL team.

 

An extremely mediocre QB that will keep you mediocre yet you are convinced that QB isn't mediocre. Mariota is injury prone and even when he is healthy he isn't particularly good. The problem is the team obviously will not replace him. So next year will be much of the same. Henry isn't going to get receptions so 100% of his work must come from rushing yards and TDs. That creates an extremely problematic floor when your offense isn't good. It works great if you are someone like Chris Carson who is on an offense that can open up things and also produces scoring opportunities. However, when those opportunities are non existent you have a boom or bust RB. The only way Henry will deliver on his sure to be over hyped ADP next season is if the offense suddenly becomes good and/or he gets work in the passing game. While not impossible, it is not all that likely.

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 

So

- they can't get their 2nd overall pick QB going

- they can't get the ball to their #5 overall pick WR

- they couldn't get their Heisman trophy RB going until an outsider told him to start running for real

 

Anyone see a pattern here or is that just me?

Mariota isnt as bad as people seem to think. Hes missed his best TE/RT all year. Rishard Mathews wich was good gave up on the team early this season, so that didnt help. Davis has shown potenial but he is also inconsistent running routes. This organization did a poor job building towards Mariota. When healthy Mariota has been good but like you said hes made of glass.

 

Replacing Mariota isnt an easy task, they also picked up his 5th year option I believe...

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The problem is the Titans are in the worst possible position you can be in as an NFL team.

 

An extremely mediocre QB that will keep you mediocre yet you are convinced that QB isn't mediocre. Mariota is injury prone and even when he is healthy he isn't particularly good. The problem is the team obviously will not replace him. So next year will be much of the same. Henry isn't going to get receptions so 100% of his work must come from rushing yards and TDs. That creates an extremely problematic floor when your offense isn't good. It works great if you are someone like Chris Carson who is on an offense that can open up things and also produces scoring opportunities. However, when those opportunities are non existent you have a boom or bust RB. The only way Henry will deliver on his sure to be over hyped ADP next season is if the offense suddenly becomes good and/or he gets work in the passing game. While not impossible, it is not all that likely.

Mariotas first 2 years were about the same as Cams average stats. So I guess at least Cam is consistently mediocre. He's always around 20-22TDs and 12-15 INTs. 

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15 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 

So

- they can't get their 2nd overall pick QB going

- they can't get the ball to their #5 overall pick WR

- they couldn't get their Heisman trophy RB going until an outsider told him to start running for real

 

Anyone see a pattern here or is that just me?

 

9 hours ago, cashvillesent said:

like you said hes made of glass.

 

Eh? No, that's not what I said, I assume you meant to quote someone else :D

(Happy New Year BTW)

 

No, what I meant is that the Titans (like many NFL teams, furstratingly) draft promising players and then absolutely fail to nurture and grow them into future HoF-ers. A #2 draft QB or WR is not the finished product - you can't throw them on the field and assume they'll be fine. Even an RB may need a transition into the pros, as Henry proved. If you fail to do that as an organisation, then you've failed as an organisation.

I don't mean to pick on the Titans, I have nothing against them. I just don't understand that any organisation (in any business) can invest millions and milions and then just proceed to waste it. What makes it more insane is that Bill Belichick and NE continue to do the opposite, they take the rejects and develop them - and 25+ other teams look at that and the success he's having and say "yeah it would be nice to have success, but I have no time for that, I need to dunk another 25 Million into this black hole right here."
</rant>

Did I mention Happy New Year?

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On 5/1/2018 at 5:06 PM, Lord_Varys said:

Starting to guess at projections for 2018.  Will watch camp and preseason close.  Wanted to air some thoughts and scenarios and let people poke holes.

 

== Trying to guess volume and yardage

Jags led the league with 33 rush attempts per game last year.  LA Rams, where LaFleur comes from, had 27.6, 11th overall.  Titans had 27.2, 12th overall.  League average was Pittsburgh at 26.8.  If I had to guess the total size of the pie, conservatively, it'd be 27 rushes per game for the Titans.

 

Last two years, Mariota's had 59 then 60 rush attempts.  4 per game.  This leaves 23 rush attempts per game for Henry and Lewis to share.  23 per game x 16 games is 368 total.  Call it 369 total attempts for the year that they have to share (nice divisible number).

 

Let's give Henry a 4.6 YPC for the year.  It'd be a career best (4.5 rookie, 4.2 sophomore).  I'll assume LaFleur breathes life and efficiency into the offense.

Let's give Lewis a 5.0 YPC, good for a powerful shifty runner such as himself who's coming in for a change of pace role.  These 3rd down backs have a little more space to run, and the benefit of a tired defense (the Joseph Randle effect).  Lewis had 5.0 last year, anyways.

 

Realistic case, if Henry gets 2/3rds of the carries...

15.4 rush per game, 246 total, 1,125 rush yards for the year.  Leaves 120 for Lewis, 7.5 per game, 600 rush yards on the year.  15.5 to 7.5 seem like a reasonable split.

 

Pessemistic case.  What if Henry gets 60/40?

13.8 per game, 221 total, 1015 yards.  Lewis gets 9.2, 147 total, 736 yards.  

 

Optimistic case.  Henry gets 70% of rushes.  (I honestly don't know where I can go to find a comparison, but 70% seems like a pretty dominant control of the backfield).

16.1 per game, 257 total, 1,160 yards.  Lewis gets 7 rushes per game, 110 total, 550 rush yards.

 

I'm gonna figure 15 rush per game for Henry, and 1,100 rush yards.  Leaves 8 rush per game for Lewis, 640 yards. 

 

== Now what about touchdowns?

- Saints led the league with 1.4 rushing TDs per game last year.  Titans had 1.1 (4th overall).  Rams had 1.0 (6th overall).  League average was KC at 0.8.

- Give the team 16 total TDs, that's 1 per game, still really good, and reasonable with Mariota.  Mariota will take about 3 (2, 2, and 5 in three seasons as a pro).  Leaves 13 rushing TDs for Henry and Lewis.

Figure 8-10 rush TD for Henry, 3-5 rush TD for Lewis.

 

== What about receptions?

20 recs for 200 yards and 1 TD for Henry seem like a decent floor to start?

50 for Lewis for 400 yds and 4 TDs...

Would take their combined total to 600 and 5, which is less than what Gurley did by himself last year in an offense that LaFleur helped to run.  70 recs for RBs seems low, even.

This to me is the hardest to determine how it shakes out tho.  Henry had 11 recs last year in a stone age offense as a backup.  20 in a new offense as the lead dog seams reasonable, achievable, no?

 

All these stats together would bring Henry out to 1,300 yards, about 10 TDs, and about 190 standard fantasy points (11.9 per game if you exclude fumbles lost).  That'd have been RB9 overall last year, but there's about 15 other RBs I'd project to outproduce this total.   Don't really see a path to the dominant RB1 we want him to be unless Lewis goes away.  But I also don't see any scenario where Henry isn't a top 20 RB either.  Lewis ain't gonna take much more work than what I described above.

 

Recap:

-Titans finished with 28 attempts per game. Mariota had 4 per. Henry and Lewis split 23 per game (1 per game on sweeps to WR or other players).  Nailed that one. 

- Henry had 215 attempts (only 13.4 per game) at 4.7ypc  for 1059 and 12 TDs.  Only 99 receiving yards, a shame. Over projected volume as Lewis was way more involved. 

- 1150 yards and 12 total. 187 total standard fantasy points. I guessed 1300 yards and 10 TDs for 190 points.  Not bad for an rb2. 

- Way too much of an ugly path to get there. 

 

For 2019...

- Expect more consistent usage. Took em 3 months to realize Lewis is the COP and a Henry needs to be a centerpiece of the offense. They ditched so much outside zone and let Henry run power which he's better at. 

- Once they committed to Henry, his floor was 16 rushes per game, even in that last game vs Indy where they got behind. 

- You have to imagine more receptions.

- TD machine.

- I think he will break 200 points and be a more reliable high end rb2.  Still fade him in PPR. Still susceptible to get game-flowed into a dud when the Titans are behind. 

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On 12/31/2018 at 10:10 AM, Fantasy Gooroo said:

Is this the sign of things to come or will they hit the reset button on the trust once again next year?

As crazy as this seems, I think the Titans GM sells high on Henry and they actually move on from him. Possibly a trade or maybe even some picks.

Edited by cashvillesent

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