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Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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tonycpsu

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I really hope the passing game is much better. Build a good lead in the first 2.5 quarters and then seal it with Henry against tired defenses. 

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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

You mean like when Dion Lewis WAS a legit RB1 last season. 

I like Dion Lewis a lot...I'm just not sure (not sure being the key point) that he gets the same # of touches as he did last season w/ NE. Over the last 10 games he was avg 15 CARRIES a game. I feel like we are going to see a 60-40 split with these guys w/ DH getting the lions share (and we haven't seen the 1st game yet)...

 

NOTE: As I was typing this up, I looked at Lewis's #'s from last season, and he had 180 carries. Based upon the number of rushes the Titans did last season (443) that 60/40 split I was guessing at would be Lewis at...~180 carries. That said, if you give me an over/under on 9 TD's (which he scored in '17), I'll take the under. But that would still put Lewis in the RB2 conversation (presuming 5 ypc, and a few catches per game).

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1 hour ago, Al.Davis said:

 

 

Dion Lewis has a total of 2 plays over 40 yards (1 run for 44 and 1 catch for 40) over his 6 year career on 417 combined carries + catches.

 

Where does this myth of Dion's 'explosiveness' come from?

 

Because he is quick and shifty in a short area. I swear people just don't wanna admit the truth.

 

Henry is a home run hitter. Lewis just hits doubles.

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56 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Where does the myth of “explosiveness” being arbitrarily defined as “plays over 40 yards” come from?!

 

33 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

 

This. I just don't fundamentally understand why you have to have giant plays to be explosive. He's more explosive through the hole, runs through and around contact better. I consider him explosive when I watch him. Derrick Henry is explosive too, but I think people are talking more aobut size adjusted speed than explosiveness. Henry's big and fast, as well as explosive, but I think Lewis is more so, IMO. 

 

 

I don't disagree. I have Henry ranked as a RB2/TD-Dependent RB2. But I have the volume shaking out as something like 230/30 for Henry and 165/65 for Lewis, and in this scenario I think there's more upside for Lewis and I expect him to win on YPC and I dont' think the TD disparity will be as great as many others. I think Henry will dominate touches inside the 5 but not from the 20 to the 5. 

 

We are playing fantasy football not pick up sticks.

 

1 explosive play of over 40yards for a TD and that could win you a week in your matchup.

 

Y'all can quivel over the term explosive play all you like.

 

I know Derrick had 3 TDs of over 50 yards and a TD last year on less than 200 catches

 

Lewis has 0 in almost 500 touches.

 

We are playing fantasy football here, not a game where we pick who is ultimately the more talented RB.

 

Henry is XXXplosive by every measure. Lewis ain't but he will run around and catch you about 6 passes for 60 yards or so, that's pretty cool.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

 

Where does the myth of “explosiveness” being arbitrarily defined as “plays over 40 yards” come from?!

 

It was an arbitrary definition indeed...but go ahead and define 'explosiveness' as whatever mathematical function that floats your boat.  Henry will still have more of them than Dion.

 

Why?  Because he's more explosive!

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31 minutes ago, cutter311 said:

I like Dion Lewis a lot...I'm just not sure (not sure being the key point) that he gets the same # of touches as he did last season w/ NE. Over the last 10 games he was avg 15 CARRIES a game. I feel like we are going to see a 60-40 split with these guys w/ DH getting the lions share (and we haven't seen the 1st game yet)...

 

NOTE: As I was typing this up, I looked at Lewis's #'s from last season, and he had 180 carries. Based upon the number of rushes the Titans did last season (443) that 60/40 split I was guessing at would be Lewis at...~180 carries. That said, if you give me an over/under on 9 TD's (which he scored in '17), I'll take the under. But that would still put Lewis in the RB2 conversation (presuming 5 ypc, and a few catches per game).

 

The trade off from where Lewis was last year to this year is that, for one, he finished RB12 and I have him closer to RB18-RB20. The other trade off is that he is not sharing Passing Down work with Burkhead or primarily James White. He will share some with Henry of course, but Lewis caught a surprisingly few 32 Receptions last year. I think that could double this year. I've gone over it in both threads I believe at this point, but new OC Matt LaFleur comes from a Rams system that threw to the RB 100-120 Times last year depending on how you classify Tavon Austin. The Titans threw to RBs 60 times. I do think henry sees increased reception volume, but I think if he plays 16 games Dion Lewis will double his receptions from about 32 to about 64. 

 

LaFleur's system as a whole I think favors lewis, but statistically that is the major IMPROVEMENT helping to offset the things you point out. I expect his catch volume to double, and I believe his traits like that are undeniably why he was brought in to run this offense. 

 

20 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Because he is quick and shifty in a short area. I swear people just don't wanna admit the truth.

 

Henry is a home run hitter. Lewis just hits doubles.

 

I do a lot more work in baseball than football, but it doesn't take a lot to know that if you hit a far higher frequency of doubles, you are better than a guy who only hits HRs. Not saying tha'ts the comparison, but you're trying to bring the baseball in, and it makes no sense in this case. I'd rather have a better all around hitter like Lewis than a guy who hit a few more jacks but was far more one-dimensional. 

 

15 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

We are playing fantasy football not pick up sticks.

 

1 explosive play of over 40yards for a TD and that could win you a week in your matchup.

 

Y'all can quivel over the term explosive play all you like.

 

I know Derrick had 3 TDs of over 50 yards and a TD last year on less than 200 catches

 

Lewis has 0 in almost 500 touches.

 

We are playing fantasy football here, not a game where we pick who is ultimately the more talented RB.

 

Henry is XXXplosive by every measure. Lewis ain't but he will run around and catch you about 6 passes for 60 yards or so, that's pretty cool.

 

Sure, if you take arbitrary numbers to fit the skillset and defensive style of your player, the numbers might favor that player. 

 

the average game will see Henry at like 12-14/55-65 with 8 TDs (Season Pace), and Lewis will see 10-12/45-55 with 3-5/40-50 and 5-6 TDs (Season Pace). Lewis' projection is probably a bit favorable, but that's roughly how I see games coming out. 

Edited by taobball
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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The trade off from where Lewis was last year to this year is that, for one, he finished RB12 and I have him closer to RB18-RB20. The other trade off is that he is not sharing Passing Down work with Burkhead or primarily James White. He will share some with Henry of course, but Lewis caught a surprisingly few 32 Receptions last year. I think that could double this year. I've gone over it in both threads I believe at this point, but new OC Matt LaFleur comes from a Rams system that threw to the RB 100-120 Times last year depending on how you classify Tavon Austin. The Titans threw to RBs 60 times. I do think henry sees increased reception volume, but I think if he plays 16 games Dion Lewis will double his receptions from about 32 to about 64. 

 

LaFleur's system as a whole I think favors lewis, but statistically that is the major IMPROVEMENT helping to offset the things you point out. I expect his catch volume to double, and I believe his traits like that are undeniably why he was brought in to run this offense. 

 

 

I do a lot more work in baseball than football, but it doesn't take a lot to know that if you hit a far higher frequency of doubles, you are better than a guy who only hits HRs. Not saying tha'ts the comparison, but you're trying to bring the baseball in, and it makes no sense in this case. I'd rather have a better all around hitter like Lewis than a guy who hit a few more jacks but was far more one-dimensional. 

 

 

Sure, if you take arbitrary numbers to fit the skillset and defensive style of your player, the numbers might favor that player. 

 

the average game will see Henry at like 12-14/55-65 with 8 TDs (Season Pace), and Lewis will see 10-12/45-55 with 3-5/40-50 and 5-6 TDs (Season Pace). Lewis' projection is probably a bit favorable, but that's roughly how I see games coming out. 

 

I didn't read all of that. Don't have to. 

 

Lewis will catch more passes, everybody knows that.

 

Henry will have almost twice as many TDs as Lewis will.

 

Lewis will never line up in the backfield and go 75 yards for a TD but Henry can and that's what you want in fantasy football. A high ceiling.

 

Lewis is a good RB, no debating that so I won't even engage that conversation. It's not about who is better to me. It's who can produce the most fantasy football points and that is Henry.

 

It's why every fantasy player in the world is drafting Henry ahead of Lewis.

 

Think Lewis is a better RB than Henry for fantasy? Go ahead, draft him before Henry, let's see how it works out for you.

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Henry will have almost twice as many TDs as Lewis will.

 

I'm guessing he has about 1.25x as many. About 8 to 6. Maybe he hits 10 to 5. But I have as closer to 8 to 6. 

 

Quote

It's why every fantasy player in the world is drafting Henry ahead of Lewis.

 

Think Lewis is a better RB than Henry for fantasy? Go ahead, draft him before Henry, let's see how it works out for you.

 

I did. I will. GL. 

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I didn't read all of that. Don't have to. 

 

Lewis will catch more passes, everybody knows that.

 

Henry will have almost twice as many TDs as Lewis will.

 

Lewis will never line up in the backfield and go 75 yards for a TD but Henry can and that's what you want in fantasy football. A high ceiling.

 

Lewis is a good RB, no debating that so I won't even engage that conversation. It's not about who is better to me. It's who can produce the most fantasy football points and that is Henry.

 

It's why every fantasy player in the world is drafting Henry ahead of Lewis.

 

Think Lewis is a better RB than Henry for fantasy? Go ahead, draft him before Henry, let's see how it works out for you.

Now you're just tempting Murphy's law to actualize, arent you?

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I'm guessing he has about 1.25x as many. About 8 to 6. Maybe he hits 10 to 5. But I have as closer to 8 to 6. 

 

 

I did. I will. GL. 

 

I'm not the one who needs the luck. That would be you, so hopefully you can go against every reasonable person and luck out. 

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I owned Henry last season, and this thread is starting to feel a lot like the Henry-Murray conversation from '17...Maybe I'm glad I don't own any shares of Henry this year...That was a little frustrating (for me at least)

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6 minutes ago, cutter311 said:

I owned Henry last season, and this thread is starting to feel a lot like the Henry-Murray conversation from '17...Maybe I'm glad I don't own any shares of Henry this year...That was a little frustrating (for me at least)

 

Except now Murray is replaced with a good RB who isn't broken down.  65-70% Dion / 30-35% Henry timeshare.  I mean just look at the body build,  Henry can't handle a workload.

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1 minute ago, nosh0t said:

 

Except now Murray is replaced with a good RB who isn't broken down.  65-70% Dion / 30-35% Henry timeshare.  I mean just look at the body build,  Henry can't handle a workload.

 

+new, more pass-focused OC

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10 minutes ago, nosh0t said:

 

Except now Murray is replaced with a good RB who isn't broken down.  65-70% Dion / 30-35% Henry timeshare.  I mean just look at the body build,  Henry can't handle a workload.

 

The guy who has 30+ pounds and has never suffered a significant injury can't handle the workload? And Lewis can after having had season ending injuries twice in his career? 

 

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6 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

 

The guy who has 30+ pounds and has never suffered a significant injury can't handle the workload? And Lewis can after having had season ending injuries twice in his career? 

 

He's joking...I stayed clear of Lewis in all drafts. Henry is gonna kill his numbers. 

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9 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

 

The guy who has 30+ pounds and has never suffered a significant injury can't handle the workload? And Lewis can after having had season ending injuries twice in his career? 

 

 

I did two things with my post - one pointed out my disdain for owning Murray last year.  Okay now it's three things, two predicted my timeshare %'s and three joked at it making sense given both their builds.  Most pundits figure closer to 55/45 60/40 but who knows with this new OC things could look up, but i'm out on both of these guys and worried how Mariota will play this year.

Edited by nosh0t

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

Y'all can quivel over the term explosive play all you like.

quivel?

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Just now, cs3 said:

quivel?

 

I believe the definition is to quibble over a quiver. 

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Ahhh figured quivel had something to do with arrows... as in Henry's arrow is pointed down!

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58 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Lewis will never line up in the backfield and go 75 yards for a TD but Henry can and that's what you want in fantasy football. A high ceiling.

 

 

Wat?

 

 

isn’t Lewis the PPR, big play, scat back?

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15 minutes ago, DiddleThatKitty said:

 

 

Wat?

 

 

isn’t Lewis the PPR, big play, scat back?

 

Well, Lewis has never had a TD run over 40 yards so you tell me.

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