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Todd Gurley II 2018 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, FF4life said:

Rams 8-0

 

Gonna clinch HFA before the Fantasy Playoffs

 

You keep posting the same thing.

 

I'm guessing you think (or hope) that the Gurley owner in your league reads your messages, thinks he should thus trade him, and then you will generously accept an offer for Gurley, to help out with the situation.

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6 minutes ago, JunkyardHawg said:

I'm a proud Gurley owner. Have Brown as well. Guess i'll be picking up Kelly in two weeks just in case.

 

Confused. I thought Malcom brown has the backup role locked up... :blink:

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Was my turn to be the victim, was so brutal having DJ go up against this guy and know I had no chance at 4pm. 

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And the guy doesn't really care about that TD record; savvy owners should have gotten his backup

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33 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

And the guy doesn't really care about that TD record; savvy owners should have gotten his backup

Is there consensus on who that is?

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On 10/25/2018 at 7:49 PM, fenwaypawk said:

Are a lot of you guys handcuffing Gurley with brown? I want to hold onto him to be safe, but some players on the WW that would be worth picking up. 

 

 

I don't get the urge to hang onto a guy you can never play just in case your guy gets hurt. Brown is still a free agent in my 20-team league, and I expect him to stay there as long as Gurley remains healthy.

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59 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

 

I don't get the urge to hang onto a guy you can never play just in case your guy gets hurt. Brown is still a free agent in my 20-team league, and I expect him to stay there as long as Gurley remains healthy.

The advantage is that if Gurley were to suffer an injury, I already have him on my bench, rather than fighting with 11-19 other people for him now.  If I don't own Gurley, then it's not worth a spot because if Gurley gets hurt, it doesn't impact my team.  However, if I own Gurley, and he gets hurt, now I have a HUGE hole at my RB position.  Wouldn't you rather already have the bandaid to fix your problem in stock, rather than now have to fight with 19 other people to get it.  Because now if you don't get it, you're stuck with a huge hole at RB.  

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Los Angeles will rest a lot of starting players before the playoffs.  Especially if they win this week 

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6 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

The advantage is that if Gurley were to suffer an injury, I already have him on my bench, rather than fighting with 11-19 other people for him now.  If I don't own Gurley, then it's not worth a spot because if Gurley gets hurt, it doesn't impact my team.  However, if I own Gurley, and he gets hurt, now I have a HUGE hole at my RB position.  Wouldn't you rather already have the bandaid to fix your problem in stock, rather than now have to fight with 19 other people to get it.  Because now if you don't get it, you're stuck with a huge hole at RB.  

 

 

Instead of carrying Malcolm Brown tho, you can field a RB who you can typically start in one of the two flex spots or who can play in the one RB spot if Gurley does go down.  To me that trumps having a guy who you must bench every week just in case Gurley might get hurt. I get that they might sit him week 17, but I doubt they sit him for even more games even if they do clinch. They wouldn't want too much rust building up on Gurley before he playoffs start either. 

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If Gurley ever got hurt, I'd mix up a nice bleach/vodka concoction and hang it up for the year.

 

Edited by ludawg23
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3 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

 

Instead of carrying Malcolm Brown tho, you can field a RB who you can typically start in one of the two flex spots or who can play in the one RB spot if Gurley does go down.  To me that trumps having a guy who you must bench every week just in case Gurley might get hurt. I get that they might sit him week 17, but I doubt they sit him for even more games even if they do clinch. They wouldn't want too much rust building up on Gurley before he playoffs start either. 

I agree there's a risk/reward with owning handcuffs and it's one of the topics debated all the time around here.  I guess it depends on who you are as a manager.  Would you rather protect an investment and have a solution already in house in case something goes wrong?  Knowing that you're burning a roster spot all season that could end up never being used?  Or would you rather leave the investment unprotected?  You can scratch off more lottery tickets this way, but lottery tickets don't always turn up winners.  And if you haven't found a good lottery winner and Gurley gets hurt, you may be stuck with no insurance on Gurley AND no lottery fill ins.  Especially as we get later in the season, I become the "protect my investment" type of manager.  

 

Sorry to derail the thread, but I don't think Gurley sits out more than Week 17 also.  McVay has said that his biggest regret last season was sitting players and they were flat in the playoff game.  Similarly, when Dallas had clinched pretty early a few years ago, all the starters played the full Week 15 and 16 games I believe.  Jerry Jones/Jason Garrett mentioned how in previous seasons they rested players and came out flat vs. the Giants in the playoffs and lost the game.  You want to limit injury risk as best possible, but I think coaches also understand the drawbacks of having a team sit and get cold for 3+ weeks before a playoff game.  

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On top of that, what do you week 12 when Gurley is on a bye, as so is your bench-every-week insurance plan?

 

If you instead had that stud RB you've been able to flex each week as insurance, he could also start at RB week 12.

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Welp this the week I get to face Gurley. Faced him in the championship last year and we all know how that went. With his receiving skills, he's going to get his points but I still think the best scenario would be if the Rams get down a lot and are forced to throw a bit more, like the Packers did in the first half (Think he had 12-13 at halftime in half ppr).

Edited by WaiverLooter

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1 hour ago, Jags02 said:

 

 

I don't get the urge to hang onto a guy you can never play just in case your guy gets hurt.

 

Because if you have Gurley handcuffed, then you have one RB slot totally locked down.  There's no injury overlap.  You only handcuff if you are confident that the backup will put up good numbers filling in for the starter.  Like Conner or Deangelo Williams for the Steelers.

 

If you actually can field a good productive player as your RB5 instead of the handcuff, your league probably isn't very competitive.

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McVay benched his starters the entire preseason, I don’t think the guy cares about rust.  The odds of the starters playing in garbage time games is slim to none.  The only way I can see them playing the season out is if they’re going for 16-0.  

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2 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

Because if you have Gurley handcuffed, then you have one RB slot totally locked down.  There's no injury overlap.  You only handcuff if you are confident that the backup will put up good numbers filling in for the starter.  Like Conner or Deangelo Williams for the Steelers.

 

If you actually can field a good productive player as your RB5 instead of the handcuff, your league probably isn't very competitive.

 

 

Rarely does anyone in our league carry 5 RBs. It's a 20-team full-point PPR league with only 1 RB spot, 2 WR spots and 2 flex spots with IDPs to boot. To compete in my league, you want productive players all around. The only time I'd consider a handcuff is if your start is injury prone.  If I had Breida or Fournette, for instance, I'd feel safer with a handcuff. 

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5 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

McVay benched his starters the entire preseason, I don’t think the guy cares about rust.  The odds of the starters playing in garbage time games is slim to none.  The only way I can see them playing the season out is if they’re going for 16-0.  

 

 

You really can't compare preseason games to end-of-season games.

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5 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

McVay benched his starters the entire preseason, I don’t think the guy cares about rust.  The odds of the starters playing in garbage time games is slim to none.  The only way I can see them playing the season out is if they’re going for 16-0.  

Yeah but sitting guys in the pre-season before Week 1, and sitting guys for 3 weeks heading into the playoffs I think are 2 totally different ideas.  You can shake off the rust when you get into the regular season.  You don't get a shot to "shake off the rust" in the playoffs.  You got one game.

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Just now, Fort4242 said:

Yeah but sitting guys in the pre-season before Week 1, and sitting guys for 3 weeks heading into the playoffs I think are 2 totally different ideas.  You can shake off the rust when you get into the regular season.  You don't get a shot to "shake off the rust" in the playoffs.  You got one game.

 

 

Precisely. Besides, nobody is rusty after training camp even if you didn't play in the Preseason.

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25 minutes ago, Jags02 said:

 

 

Instead of carrying Malcolm Brown tho, you can field a RB who you can typically start in one of the two flex spots or who can play in the one RB spot if Gurley does go down.  To me that trumps having a guy who you must bench every week just in case Gurley might get hurt. I get that they might sit him week 17, but I doubt they sit him for even more games even if they do clinch. They wouldn't want too much rust building up on Gurley before he playoffs start either. 

That is a great theory, doesn't usually work so well in practice in leagues with 12 or more teams though. RBs are scare, hard to tell people to just own another starting RB. If you are 5 deep at rb, I wouldn't necessarily care about a handcuff either, but that isn't how it works out.

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7 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Yeah but sitting guys in the pre-season before Week 1, and sitting guys for 3 weeks heading into the playoffs I think are 2 totally different ideas.  You can shake off the rust when you get into the regular season.  You don't get a shot to "shake off the rust" in the playoffs.  You got one game.

Rust has nothing to do with this.  It’s just common sense that he’s not gonna play his starters in games that don’t mean anything.  He’s already shown that in the preseason.  It’s about not wanting to risk injury.  Point being, this is a huge game.  It’s like a 3 game swing in the standings.  

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The concern that he will not play in week 16 is an extremely valid one. At least the second half. The team is absolutely loaded and they can very well be 13-1 going into the game. If that is the case and the Saints are 11-3 with a loss to the Rams they would have no reason to play their starters. Absolutely none. 

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30 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The concern that he will not play in week 16 is an extremely valid one. At least the second half. The team is absolutely loaded and they can very well be 13-1 going into the game. If that is the case and the Saints are 11-3 with a loss to the Rams they would have no reason to play their starters. Absolutely none. 

 

 

Ideally, I'd be able to just pick him up going into week 16. I still bet he only sits week 17 tho.

Edited by Jags02

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