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Todd Gurley II 2018 Outlook

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49 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

Rust has nothing to do with this.  It’s just common sense that he’s not gonna play his starters in games that don’t mean anything.  He’s already shown that in the preseason.  It’s about not wanting to risk injury.  Point being, this is a huge game.  It’s like a 3 game swing in the standings.  

 

I do agree that it is a risk, but a few factors come into play:

 

1. We all obviously hope the Saints win this week and hold the tie breaker, and that the Rams drop 1 or 2 others along the way, forcing them to play it out for the 1 seed

2. If they win, the team may have a legit chance at 16-0. McVay has a swagger about him that makes me think he'd want to achieve that if it's in reach

3. Gurley may be going for the TD record, and I'm sure he and his teammates will want to feed that to him if they have the chance

4. They rested their starters the entire game in week 17 last year, then came out super flat and got embarrassed at home in the Wild Card round by the Falcons.

 

My one legit fear is that they're up so much in week 16 @ARI that they rest the starters once they get a comfortable lead, forcing us to start him but not get a full game. Hopefully one half against the lowly Cardinals would give him a games-worth of points that his alternatives would.

 

I'm likely going to pick up Brown after the week 12 bye as the Spec adds start to dwindle.

Edited by Olliemets
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Gurley rust in playoffs? They’ll  lock up the bye week. Resting the starters week 17 might not happen

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4 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

 

I do agree that it is a risk, but a few factors come into play:

 

1. We all obviously hope the Saints win this week and hold the tie breaker, and that the Rams drop 1 or 2 others along the way, forcing them to play it out for the 1 seed

2. If they win, the team may have a legit chance at 16-0. McVay has a swagger about him that makes me think he'd want to achieve that if it's in reach

3. Gurley may be going for the TD record, and I'm sure he and his teammates will want to feed that to him if they have the chance

4. They rested their starters the entire game in week 17 last year, then came out super flat and got embarrassed at home in the Wild Card round by the Falcons.

 

My one legit fear is that they're up so much in week 16 @ARI that they rest the starters once they get a comfortable lead, forcing us to start him but not get a full game. Hopefully one half against the lowly Cardinals would give him a games-worth of points that his alternatives would.

 

I'm likely going to pick up Brown after the week 12 bye as the Spec adds start to dwindle.

Just convinced me to pick up Brown haha. Thank you. 

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If they beat the Saints I would put the chances of Gurley sitting out at least half of the week 16 game at over 50%.

 

The question isn't if the starters will rest. It's if Gurley will rest. Most of their starters may play but Gurley will not be one of them. The nature of the position carries way too much weight for injury and he will have a ton of touches already.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

Yeah but sitting guys in the pre-season before Week 1, and sitting guys for 3 weeks heading into the playoffs I think are 2 totally different ideasYou can shake off the rust when you get into the regular season.  You don't get a shot to "shake off the rust" in the playoffs.  You got one game.

I should have just put the whole GD paragraph in bold. You are spot on!

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couldn't run up the middle and the saints run defense lives up to the hype. his worst game at 16 points half PPR.

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"Only" 19.9 in my full PPR last week which only means he's going for 40 on Sunday B)

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I mean New Orleans does have the tie breaker, but I dont think NO goes undefeted 

Edited by urban2014

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41 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

I mean New Orleans does have the tie breaker, but I dont think NO goes undefeted 

 

True but w/ the tiebreaker the Saints might not have to win out to take NFC home field.  I could see both teams ending up 12-2 going into fantasy semis. 

 

The Rams get KC and @CHI and could lose one of those.

The only games I'd be concerned about for NO are the away games.  @CIN, @DAL, @TB.  @CIN could be tricky coming off the big win last week.  Never can rule out @TB Fitzmagic, he beat the Saints week 1 after-all.

 

Regarding Gurley, I'm most concerned that in the championship week that the Rams are @Arizona and they might blow them out by halftime and rest key starters.  Really have to hope Leftwich gets the ARI offense going by week 16.  

 

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22 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

 

True but w/ the tiebreaker the Saints might not have to win out to take NFC home field.  I could see both teams ending up 12-2 going into fantasy semis. 

 

The Rams get KC and @CHI and could lose one of those.

The only games I'd be concerned about for NO are the away games.  @CIN, @DAL, @TB.  @CIN could be tricky coming off the big win last week.  Never can rule out @TB Fitzmagic, he beat the Saints week 1 after-all.

 

Regarding Gurley, I'm most concerned that in the championship week that the Rams are @Arizona and they might blow them out by halftime and rest key starters.  Really have to hope Leftwich gets the ARI offense going by week 16.  

 

 

I wouldn't be too concerned. If the rams do blow them out, they would have to be up by 4-5 tds. You would think Gurley would be responsible for at least 2 of those if that does happen, so he'll probably easily eclipse 20 points that week. Now if you were hoping for 40-50, then there's some concern there but not a realistic expectation, even for someone like Gurley.

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Gurley owners shopping him in quite a few leagues.

 

Week 14 and 15 they play CHI and PHI. The two best run stopping units in the league by a mile. Not saying Gurley isn't matchup-proof, but CHI and PHI have proven to be legit at stopping the run.

 

Then in week 16 against ARI. Even if they are still playing for #1 seed, this game could easily be decided by halftime like their 1st meeting. The difference is that when you lead by 3 or 4 scores in the 2nd half of week 16, protecting your best player is the smart thing to do, especially at a high-risk position like RB and playoffs coming up.

 

And don't forget that there are some Gurley owners who are still fighting for a playoff spot and won't survive Gurley's week 12 bye.

 

So even if someone offers you the best player in fantasy football for a tempting price tag, there are at least some facts you should consider.

 

Edited by frog34
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1 hour ago, frog34 said:

Gurley owners shopping him in quite a few leagues.

 

Week 14 and 15 they play CHI and PHI. The two best run stopping units in the league by a mile. Not saying Gurley isn't matchup-proof, but CHI and PHI have proven to be legit at stopping the run.

 

Then in week 16 against ARI. Even if they are still playing for #1 seed, this game could easily be decided by halftime like their 1st meeting. The difference is that when you lead by 3 or 4 scores in the 2nd half of week 16, protecting your best player is the smart thing to do, especially at a high-risk position like RB and playoffs coming up.

 

And don't forget that there are some Gurley owners who are still fighting for a playoff spot and won't survive Gurley's week 12 bye.

 

So even if someone offers you the best player in fantasy football for a tempting price tag, there are at least some facts you should consider.

 

 

They said this about Gurley last season.

 

Gurley still had an MVP caliber season.

 

Gurley is a stud.

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1 hour ago, frog34 said:

Gurley owners shopping him in quite a few leagues.

 

Week 14 and 15 they play CHI and PHI. The two best run stopping units in the league by a mile. Not saying Gurley isn't matchup-proof, but CHI and PHI have proven to be legit at stopping the run.

 

Then in week 16 against ARI. Even if they are still playing for #1 seed, this game could easily be decided by halftime like their 1st meeting. The difference is that when you lead by 3 or 4 scores in the 2nd half of week 16, protecting your best player is the smart thing to do, especially at a high-risk position like RB and playoffs coming up.

 

And don't forget that there are some Gurley owners who are still fighting for a playoff spot and won't survive Gurley's week 12 bye.

 

So even if someone offers you the best player in fantasy football for a tempting price tag, there are at least some facts you should consider.

 

 

here's his game log in the playoffs last year vs PHI and TEN ..#1 and #4 in rushing D for 2017 - if the Rams get into the RZ there's probably a 68.33% (repeating ofc) chance he scores 

 

WK DATE OPP RESULT GS RUATT RUYD RUAVG RULG RUTD RECPT REYD REAVG RELG RETD FL FPTS
14 10-Dec PHI L 43-35 Yes 13 96 7.38 30 2 3 39 13 20 0 0 24
16 24-Dec @TEN W 27-23 Yes 22 118 5.36 34 0 10 158 15.8 80 2 0 38
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On 11/10/2018 at 11:08 AM, JSA2422 said:

 

here's his game log in the playoffs last year vs PHI and TEN ..#1 and #4 in rushing D for 2017 - if the Rams get into the RZ there's probably a 68.33% (repeating ofc) chance he scores 

 

WK DATE OPP RESULT GS RUATT RUYD RUAVG RULG RUTD RECPT REYD REAVG RELG RETD FL FPTS
14 10-Dec PHI L 43-35 Yes 13 96 7.38 30 2 3 39 13 20 0 0 24
16 24-Dec @TEN W 27-23 Yes 22 118 5.36 34 0 10 158 15.8 80 2 0 38

Stop using logic as a valid argument on the internet. Good defenses>>>>>Todd Gurley and it’s a proven fact, just disregard the fact that he’s scored a TD in 13 consecutive games or the fact that he has the same amount of TDs as Aaron Rodgers this season. Trade him because of what can possibly happen 6 weeks from now.

 

/s

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Didn't Zeke just run all over the Eagles? That defense is trending down plus the Rams have one of the best O-Lines in the league.

 

Kerryon Johnson just had his best fantasy game vs the Bears too.

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On ‎11‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 9:02 AM, frog34 said:

Gurley owners shopping him in quite a few leagues.

This is how you lose at fantasy football.

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3 hours ago, ludawg23 said:

Didn't Zeke just run all over the Eagles? That defense is trending down plus the Rams have one of the best O-Lines in the league.

 

Kerryon Johnson just had his best fantasy game vs the Bears too.

 

Yep, and furthermore Gurley isn't Jordan Howard resigned to pound the A & B gaps only.  If the running lanes are stuffed he'll get his on screens and other designed passing plays out of the backfield.  The Rams will find ways to get the ball in their best playmakers hands.  If anyone is selling Gurley I'm buying, even if he's facing a brick wall in the finals.

Edited by ragrag
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I think Gurley owners without glaring needs at multiple positions, should definitely NOT trade Gurley. None of us have any idea if he'll sit out any meaningful games down the stretch (though odds are that he plays through Week 16 IMO). And none of us know if the tougher Week 14/15 matchups will have any big impact on his numbers (he's shown the ability to get big numbers against everyone). 

 

Now I personally did trade Gurley, before Week 10 games were played, because I did have glaring needs at multiple positions.

 

It wasn't an easy decision, because Gurley is the single-best player in the game (and would've been a great keeper in 2019 for me). With all that said, don't trade him unless you have to AND unless you are getting a return that truly can improve your team. After all, in his last 14 games (last 4 from 2017, first 10 here in 2018), Gurley has produced 2,139 total yards and 25 TD's. That's insane. 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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You guys think Malcolm Brown is a nice add for a dead roster spot in case Gurley rests at all, maybe vs Zona in week 16?

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