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Amari Cooper 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

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1 hour ago, psykid85 said:

Has anyone here ever watched a Dallas Cowboys game? JK ,but really how hard is that playbook to learn. It takes defenses about 2 drives in week 1 to figure out that rinse and repeat offense. 

 

 

This, unfortunately, is closer to not at being accurate.  Their offense relies on elite execution and efficiency rather than tactical or strategic advantages.  There are always some reads within play calls which a WR needs to be on the same page as the QB which takes time.  The jargon could be different as well although Linehan/Garrett's offense isn't supposedly overly verbose.

 

There are a lot of poor or ignorant posts in this thread about the issues that plague the Cowboys.  At the top of the list are their offense system is dated and elementary, but moreso, their OL isn't dominant anymore.  It's still a good run blocking group normally, but not dominant and they're really poor in pass protection.  Martin is still an elite OL, but Smith, while solid, isn't elite at LT anymore.  Looney at Center is a significant downgrade from Frederick, who may be the best center in the game.  Looney's done what he can but he's playing at slightly above replacement level.  Williams, the rookie, and Collins are playing out of position which is the strangest phenomenon as they should have been swapped in TC.  As such, both are poor in pass blocking.  Overall, the OL is bad at protecting. 

 

At WR, Beasley is still a good man2man option route runner in the middle of the field and the rookie, Gallup, is learning but far from consistently effective.  Otherwise, they miss their zone buster in Witten, who despite being slow, understood how to find the soft parts vs zone defenses for 7-9 yards and they don't have many guys who can win vs man.  Allen Hurns has been a disappointment, Thompson is a JAG.  TWill is done in Dallas and on IR.  It's a terrible receiving corp with no difference makers at TE either.  So, you have a poor OL, bad WR's, and a young QB who's footwork is imperative for success playing in an elementary scheme.  Not exactly the best recipe for success.  Cooper should come in and help as he is more of a technician with route running and gets separation from his footwork and routes rather than being a beast like Julio Jones.  This will help, but Cooper's challenge is he won't fix the OL.  He won't fix the poor TE receiving play.  He won't fix the dated offensive scheme.  And more to the point, he won't fix Dallas plays at an excruciating slow pace.  They simply don't run a ton of plays per game as they are built to run and wear teams down and are really bad on 3rd and long right now. 

 

So look at Dez Bryant last year in the same system.  He was a player in decline but still getting  a majority of the snaps.  He has 132 targets in 16 games or 8.25 a game.  Or in 2014, when he was still very effective, he got 136 targets in 16 games or about 8.5 a game.  That's Cooper's ceiling IMO.  With the challenges of a porous OL and having to learning a new system and gain chemistry with his QB, I think 85% of that mark after the first month is maybe a realistic measure which comes out to about 6.5-7 targets per game.  In Oakland this year, he was averaging a little over 6 targets per game (I took out the game he got injured) and those targets were extremely inconsistent.  I think his targets will be more consistent but he won't be getting 9-10 per game consistently.  The system and scheme don't call for that type of force feeding. 

 

Next year?  Probably have a new offensive system.....

 

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53 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

 

This, unfortunately, is closer to not at being accurate.  Their offense relies on elite execution and efficiency rather than tactical or strategic advantages.  There are always some reads within play calls which a WR needs to be on the same page as the QB which takes time.  The jargon could be different as well although Linehan/Garrett's offense isn't supposedly overly verbose.

 

There are a lot of poor or ignorant posts in this thread about the issues that plague the Cowboys.  At the top of the list are their offense system is dated and elementary, but moreso, their OL isn't dominant anymore.  It's still a good run blocking group normally, but not dominant and they're really poor in pass protection.  Martin is still an elite OL, but Smith, while solid, isn't elite at LT anymore.  Looney at Center is a significant downgrade from Frederick, who may be the best center in the game.  Looney's done what he can but he's playing at slightly above replacement level.  Williams, the rookie, and Collins are playing out of position which is the strangest phenomenon as they should have been swapped in TC.  As such, both are poor in pass blocking.  Overall, the OL is bad at protecting. 

 

At WR, Beasley is still a good man2man option route runner in the middle of the field and the rookie, Gallup, is learning but far from consistently effective.  Otherwise, they miss their zone buster in Witten, who despite being slow, understood how to find the soft parts vs zone defenses for 7-9 yards and they don't have many guys who can win vs man.  Allen Hurns has been a disappointment, Thompson is a JAG.  TWill is done in Dallas and on IR.  It's a terrible receiving corp with no difference makers at TE either.  So, you have a poor OL, bad WR's, and a young QB who's footwork is imperative for success playing in an elementary scheme.  Not exactly the best recipe for success.  Cooper should come in and help as he is more of a technician with route running and gets separation from his footwork and routes rather than being a beast like Julio Jones.  This will help, but Cooper's challenge is he won't fix the OL.  He won't fix the poor TE receiving play.  He won't fix the dated offensive scheme.  And more to the point, he won't fix Dallas plays at an excruciating slow pace.  They simply don't run a ton of plays per game as they are built to run and wear teams down and are really bad on 3rd and long right now. 

 

So look at Dez Bryant last year in the same system.  He was a player in decline but still getting  a majority of the snaps.  He has 132 targets in 16 games or 8.25 a game.  Or in 2014, when he was still very effective, he got 136 targets in 16 games or about 8.5 a game.  That's Cooper's ceiling IMO.  With the challenges of a porous OL and having to learning a new system and gain chemistry with his QB, I think 85% of that mark after the first month is maybe a realistic measure which comes out to about 6.5-7 targets per game.  In Oakland this year, he was averaging a little over 6 targets per game (I took out the game he got injured) and those targets were extremely inconsistent.  I think his targets will be more consistent but he won't be getting 9-10 per game consistently.  The system and scheme don't call for that type of force feeding. 

 

Next year?  Probably have a new offensive system.....

 

 

You hit on some solid points. Mainly the offensive line not being what it once was, I have been preaching this for some time now but most people refuse to acknowledge it. They have their solid moments as a run blocking group but as far as pass protection goes they have been downright awful. If the argument is prior accolades then yeah sure dominant is spot on but recently they have looked average to me. The difference between Daks rookie season and the past two seasons is his rookie season he actually had time to throw. He was able to sit back and break down defenses even with a regressing Dez Bryant and an old Jason Witten. This year on a scale of 1 to 10 in difficulty for him its at a 10. He has had absolutely no help from his WRs, they claim some separation is there but its not. They provide him with no YAC. They have dropped balls in crucial situations. The moment he snaps the ball there are hands in his face. Defenses are stacking the box and taking away Zeke. Playcalling is atrocious at times. The only help Dak has had is the Dallas defense keeping them in games by not giving up points but still they don't create turnovers to provide Dak with short fields.

 

Amari will by far open things up not only for himself but for the rest of the WRs and Zeke no doubt about it but honestly it starts with that O-line needing to play better for them to be successful.

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Don’t have any shares of Amari, but always looking for buy low opportunities. And based on what I’m reading here, there might be some.

 

Cooper was a bust last year and this year. But we know he can produce, unlike some WRs like Corey Davis, who may or may not.

 

Anyway, dropping him seems crazy. His fantasy potential is higher today than it was his last game as a raider. I don’t care if he has to learn a new playbook. The raiders are cancer this year for FF.

 

in the end, he may still suck. But if I had held onto him this long, why drop him now?

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2 minutes ago, Butters said:

Don’t have any shares of Amari, but always looking for buy low opportunities. And based on what I’m reading here, there might be some.

 

Cooper was a bust last year and this year. But we know he can produce, unlike some WRs like Corey Davis, who may or may not.

 

Anyway, dropping him seems crazy. His fantasy potential is higher today than it was his last game as a raider. I don’t care if he has to learn a new playbook. The raiders are cancer this year for FF.

 

in the end, he may still suck. But if I had held onto him this long, why drop him now?

I dropped him three days before he got traded and don't regret it. His fantasy potential is unchanged. In fact, I figure it may be slightly worse. The only person that benefits is Zeke. Amari is a great route runner and that's it. Enough to take the attention off of Zeke.

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2 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

I dropped him three days before he got traded and don't regret it. His fantasy potential is unchanged. In fact, I figure it may be slightly worse. The only person that benefits is Zeke. Amari is a great route runner and that's it. Enough to take the attention off of Zeke.

 

Im not saying he wasn’t droppable before. I’m saying, I don’t see the point of keeping him when he was with the raiders, and then when he gets traded, saying, “well, no way a change of teams will help his fantasy value”. 

 

Again, at the end of the year, we may look back and say, he is who we thought he was. But I think there is a higher chance that he is a WR3 today, than when he was on the raiders.

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3 minutes ago, Butters said:

 

Im not saying he wasn’t droppable before. I’m saying, I don’t see the point of keeping him when he was with the raiders, and then when he gets traded, saying, “well, no way a change of teams will help his fantasy value”. 

 

Again, at the end of the year, we may look back and say, he is who we thought he was. But I think there is a higher chance that he is a WR3 today, than when he was on the raiders.

I think Washington or Colts, yes. Dallas, I seriously doubt it. Not with Dak throwing the balls. Mr Dropsy at least needs a competent QB. And yeah WR3, sure. That's not what his ADP reflected though coming into the season. At worst should have been a WR2.

Edited by FitzMagic

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1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

 

There are a lot of poor or ignorant posts in this thread about the issues that plague the Cowboys.  At the top of the list are their offense system is dated and elementary, but moreso, their OL isn't dominant anymore.  It's still a good run blocking group normally, but not dominant and they're really poor in pass protection.  Martin is still an elite OL, but Smith, while solid, isn't elite at LT anymore.  Looney at Center is a significant downgrade from Frederick, who may be the best center in the game.  Looney's done what he can but he's playing at slightly above replacement level.  Williams, the rookie, and Collins are playing out of position which is the strangest phenomenon as they should have been swapped in TC.  As such, both are poor in pass blocking.  Overall, the OL is bad at protecting. 

 

 

 

Careful patrick.... don't call someone elses opinion ignorant or wrong because you might get your post deleted. Oh wait...

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9 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

I dropped him three days before he got traded and don't regret it. His fantasy potential is unchanged. In fact, I figure it may be slightly worse. The only person that benefits is Zeke. Amari is a great route runner and that's it. Enough to take the attention off of Zeke.

 

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26 minutes ago, whatisfootball said:

 

:lol:

 

Notice they didn't ask for the "good ones"...... Linehan and Garrett next level.

 

giphy.gif

 

 

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34 minutes ago, whatisfootball said:

 

:lol:

 

 

In all seriousness did this happen or is someone making a farcial tweet?

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

In all seriousness did this happen or is someone making a farcial tweet?

 Knowing Matt Mosley it was probably just a joke. He's a goofball.

 

At least I sure hope it was...

Edited by 1st DownSyndrome
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4 hours ago, K197040 said:

 

wtf...no one asked Amari or Garrett about the projected fantasy output?!?!!?

I listened to the whole interview and Garrett said "I expect Cooper to settle into the WR2 conversa....".
He was abruptly interrupted by Jerry Jones who interjected, "WR1 overall ROS, book it!!!" 

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2 minutes ago, VIKEVIKE77 said:

I listened to the whole interview and Garrett said "I expect Cooper to settle into the WR2 conversa....".
He was abruptly interrupted by Jerry Jones who interjected, "WR1 overall ROS, book it!!!" 

 

That's all i needed to hear.   Thanks for the intel.

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Now I find myself needing him to replace Fuller. Hope he can replace 60% of that value, but not holding my breath. Will still hope Cooper is a golden ticket though.

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I'm glad I held onto him. I have no doubts that he will be better than he was in Oakland for the simple fact that he will be getting thrown to around 7-8 times a game minimum and i would guess more likely to be in the 8-10 range. HYPE TRAIN IS BACK BABY!!

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1 hour ago, NInsko said:

I'm glad I held onto him. I have no doubts that he will be better than he was in Oakland for the simple fact that he will be getting thrown to around 7-8 times a game minimum and i would guess more likely to be in the 8-10 range. HYPE TRAIN IS BACK BABY!!

Never ceases to amaze me when people hype up a player continually. That 7-8 targets/game is more likely a maximum considering what Dak has done as a starting QB.

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3 hours ago, devaster said:

Never ceases to amaze me when people hype up a player continually. That 7-8 targets/game is more likely a maximum considering what Dak has done as a starting QB.

I'm just basing this on owning D.Bryant last year, seeing how they use their #1WR and thinking Cooper is filling that role.  Dak targeted Bryant 133 times which averages out to 7.8 targets per game. He targeted him 8 or more times in 9 games last year. I figure Cooper will get the same treatment once they get him going.  Overall I wrote Cooper off and he was pinned to my bench never to be used, the trade creates optimism for me and possibly a asset for the playoff push in a best case scenario ....... ALL ABOARD!! CHOO CHOO!!!!!!

Edited by NInsko
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Cooper has talent.  He needs to get his confidence back.  He needs to get 100% healthy and he needs to get thrown the football.

 

Cooper on the Raiders was the putative (look that one up, newbies) WR1.  But the Raiders here in 2018 are one of the most deeply dysfunctional teams we have seen in the NFL in years.  And we have watched Cleveland win one game in two seasons up until this year. 

 

Now on Dallas?  Confidence boost, check.  The Cowboys traded a 1st round pick for him.  Health, check.  With two bye weeks in a row and a Thursday game at the start, Cooper gets nearly a full month to heal up.  Targets, likely check.  The other Cowboy WRs are hot garbage (although I like Gallup for next year), and the Cowboys are going to try to justify the trade to their fans and critics, so Cooper will get run.

 

The ingredients are all here.  Are Garrett and Linehan Belichick and McDaniel?  No indeed they are not.  But they did win 13 games two years ago, and they have a very credible running game that will prevent opposing defenses from focusing all their attention on Cooper.  That's a huge improvement over the "stuck in 1999" "Oakland" Raiders.

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9 hours ago, devaster said:

Never ceases to amaze me when people hype up a player continually. That 7-8 targets/game is more likely a maximum considering what Dak has done as a starting QB.

 

It always amazes me that apparently veteran fantasy players don't acknowledge that crazy s--- happens in the game all the time and things often zig when you zag.

 

Could Cooper continue to bust? Yes. Is there a scenario where he becomes a good fantasy asset? Of course.

Edited by LongBalls

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The majority of naysayers in this thread are people that either dropped Amari or have been burned by him in the past. It's all white noise until we see their first game.

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17 minutes ago, kball09 said:

The majority of naysayers in this thread are people that either dropped Amari or have been burned by him in the past. It's all white noise until we see their first game.

 

I have been burned by Amari and I have dropped him, however that does not affect my analysis of his situation in Dallas. I don't see where Dak is going to light him up with 10 targets in  the run centric slow moving Dallas offense.   I don't think Dak is going to turn into a great anticipatory passer and give Amari chances to make big plays.  When Amari got 10 targets on the Raiders in an offense and with a QB that he knew he was a stud  so going from Carr to Dak  and a new offense mid season is not an upgrade in my view for fantasy purposes. I don't think Amari will be fantasy relevant  or higher than a wr3 for the remainder of this fantasy ceiling or at the very least establish a trend where I would trust his production in my lineup come playoffs.

i dont like his new situation for this fantasy season but i will probably love it next fantasy season

Edited by dashoe

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