DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

One of the past six seasons scoring more than 6 TDs and no double digit TD seasons since 2012 is dominant? 

 

Ok

 

Are we talking about Julio?  He’s had 4 straight 1400+ seasons.

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19 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Are we talking about Julio?  He’s had 4 straight 1400+ seasons.

 

Clearly not dominate 

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19 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Are we talking about Julio?  He’s had 4 straight 1400+ seasons.

 

Averaging less than 6 TDs/season over that span (same as the "horrible red zone threat" Jarvis Landry over the same 4 seasons).

 

Not dominant, especially in standard leagues. Better in real-life than fantasy. 

 

People who think he's dominant have clearly not owned him, as he's only produced better than his ADP once in that span -- and needed 200+ targets to do so.

Edited by joshua18
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How many targets are we thinking for this guy this season? He seems like tremendous value right now. If he gets a steady amount of targets he will be a huge steal at his current ADP. 

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1 hour ago, FinsUp24 said:

How many targets are we thinking for this guy this season? He seems like tremendous value right now. If he gets a steady amount of targets he will be a huge steal at his current ADP. 

 

Run first offense, with Landry, Duke Johnson, Njoku and Coleman demanding targets. 

 

Likely in the 120-130 range for Gordon...plenty enough to make him a WR2. 

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3 hours ago, FinsUp24 said:

How many targets are we thinking for this guy this season? He seems like tremendous value right now. If he gets a steady amount of targets he will be a huge steal at his current ADP. 

 

If he gets 7-8 targets a game I would be satisfied because he is a big play wr and a threat to score every time he catches the ball. Josh does his damage after the catch. 

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14 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Averaging less than 6 TDs/season over that span (same as the "horrible red zone threat" Jarvis Landry over the same 4 seasons).

 

Not dominant, especially in standard leagues. Better in real-life than fantasy. 

 

People who think he's dominant have clearly not owned him, as he's only produced better than his ADP once in that span -- and needed 200+ targets to do so.

This I agree with.  Julio's stats are also buoyed by one or two monster games where yes, he's a weekly winner, but then he is just average the other weeks and didn't perform like a first round pick.

 

I won't have a shot at JG in my redraft because an out of contention owner last year picked him up and just waited him out, so he'll be a great keeper pick.  But I think if you can get him anywhere in round 4 he will return draft value easily.  If he had played more than just a handful of games, I'm sure we would be talking about him in the second round.  The risk, of course, is if he falls off the wagon again and gets suspended.  So far, it seems like whatever he did was successful, at least from reports.  Rooting for kid to make it all the way back to being elite.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Run first offense, with Landry, Duke Johnson, Njoku and Coleman demanding targets. 

 

Likely in the 120-130 range for Gordon...plenty enough to make him a WR2. 

How do you know this is a run first offense? 

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Run first offense, with Landry, Duke Johnson, Njoku and Coleman demanding targets. 

 

Likely in the 120-130 range for Gordon...plenty enough to make him a WR2. 

coleman? 

last i heard the team was over him 

i can only assume you are just hating on gordon dropping that 

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1 minute ago, Flyers_28 said:

coleman? 

last i heard the team was over him 

i can only assume you are just hating on gordon dropping that 

I was going to say the same thing. Coleman can "demand" targets all he likes...but he's not going to get them. 

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1 hour ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I was going to say the same thing. Coleman can "demand" targets all he likes...but he's not going to get them. 

I don’t what people are talking about... Coleman has SCARY potential!

 

He could take the water boys job.

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Run first offense, with Landry, Duke Johnson, Njoku and Coleman demanding targets. 

 

Likely in the 120-130 range for Gordon...plenty enough to make him a WR2. 

If you take the best of all those players and create someone you get Josh Gordon.

 

90/1500/15

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Landry and Duke are factors definitely.

 

Coleman isn't good, but he's still currently the starting WR opposite JGo in base 3 WR formations which is the most common formation ran in the NFL by majority of teams and he will see a few targets because of this.

 

Coleman, Hyde, Njoku, and Random Guy (always 1 on every team) are all small factors.

 

Couple this with a QB that has never thrown for more than 3k yards (I'm aware 3035 is more than 3000, so save the trolling), generally throws limited TDs (20 best in career), and never thrown for more than 436 passes on a team that will very likely be run 1st then yeah...

 

I do think Tyrod has slight improvements on his career numbers if he remains starter all season, but nothing drastic.  I believe that 3400-3500 yards and 20ish TDs is attainable though.

 

I think it's safe to say he's not gonna get a huge number of targets.  I'd say 120-130 is very optimistic for him.  I see 130-140 range for Landry and 100-110 range for JGo.  The other 200 being chopped up with those other 4.

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I'm into Gordon at his current ADP. I'm guessing it goes up before the season starts.

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2 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Coleman, Hyde, Njoku, and Random Guy (always 1 on every team) are all small factors.

 

 

Seth Devalve

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11 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Landry and Duke are factors definitely.

 

Coleman isn't good, but he's still currently the starting WR opposite JGo in base 3 WR formations which is the most common formation ran in the NFL by majority of teams and he will see a few targets because of this.

 

Coleman, Hyde, Njoku, and Random Guy (always 1 on every team) are all small factors.

 

Couple this with a QB that has never thrown for more than 3k yards (I'm aware 3035 is more than 3000, so save the trolling), generally throws limited TDs (20 best in career), and never thrown for more than 436 passes on a team that will very likely be run 1st then yeah...

 

I do think Tyrod has slight improvements on his career numbers if he remains starter all season, but nothing drastic.  I believe that 3400-3500 yards and 20ish TDs is attainable though.

 

I think it's safe to say he's not gonna get a huge number of targets.  I'd say 120-130 is very optimistic for him.  I see 130-140 range for Landry and 100-110 range for JGo.  The other 200 being chopped up with those other 4.

 

its just as easy to say haleys offences have never thrown it less then 550 times 

i think tyrod should get around 500

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2 hours ago, Flyers_28 said:

 

its just as easy to say haleys offences have never thrown it less then 550 times 

i think tyrod should get around 500

 

Has Haley coached a QB that runs like tyrod? 

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9 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Has Haley coached a QB that runs like tyrod? 

i dont think so but how many games do you have them winning? 

 

i just dont have them winning alot so i think they will be passing more often then running

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6 hours ago, Flyers_28 said:

i dont think so but how many games do you have them winning? 

 

i just dont have them winning alot so i think they will be passing more often then running

I have them at 4, but there is a difference between blow out losses and the close losses they will most likely experience. This smells like a team that will be competitive, but with a low win total.

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8 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

I have them at 4, but there is a difference between blow out losses and the close losses they will most likely experience. This smells like a team that will be competitive, but with a low win total.

 

 

I 'm going the other way. I see them as a very disruptive team in the  AFC that other teams will underestimate and a serious spoiler to other teams.  I have them as a .500 team but I even see a scenario where they get  to the wild card game.  They have a solid defense a vet QB and offensive talent that can put points up on anyone.  The biggest question mark I have is with the o-line with Joe Thomas not returning but I think the mobility of Tyrod can mask that loss.

Haley is going to need to be creative in exploiting mismatches.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I 'm going the other way. I see them as a very disruptive team in the  AFC that other teams will underestimate and a serious spoiler to other teams.  I have them as a .500 team but I even see a scenario where they get  to the wild card game.  They have a solid defense a vet QB and offensive talent that can put points up on anyone.  The biggest question mark I have is with the o-line with Joe Thomas not returning but I think the mobility of Tyrod can mask that loss.

Haley is going to need to be creative in exploiting mismatches.

I also see a scenario where they win 0.

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17 hours ago, Flyers_28 said:

i dont think so but how many games do you have them winning? 

 

i just dont have them winning alot so i think they will be passing more often then running

 

I think they'll win more than last year lol. 

 

I don't think jumping into a lake will forgive Hues bosses next season. 

 

Bills were never a good team, but tyrod kept games close with ball control, chain moving, and time of possession. He very rarely went into 2nd half bombing passes every play cause they were down huge. 

 

I think this will be very similar but just in a Browns uniform. 

 

I don't expect Browns being down 17 at half this year and abandoning the run. I expect them to be down 3-6 and still going with the game plan. 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I 'm going the other way. I see them as a very disruptive team in the  AFC that other teams will underestimate and a serious spoiler to other teams.  I have them as a .500 team but I even see a scenario where they get  to the wild card game. 

I agree with everything until the win total. I think they will knock either the Bengals or Ravens out of wild card contention and drop the Steelers out of a bye, but I dont think they will have what it takes to win a lot of games. Similar to pre JG 9ers, very competitive but lacking the next step in closing games. (Especially with Hues game management)

 

Then again we havent seen Tyrod surrounded by this much offensive talent before. If this team was in AFC North I'd be able to buy into a wild card spot more.

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

I agree with everything until the win total. I think they will knock either the Bengals or Ravens out of wild card contention and drop the Steelers out of a bye, but I dont think they will have what it takes to win a lot of games. Similar to pre JG 9ers, very competitive but lacking the next step in closing games. (Especially with Hues game management)

 

Then again we havent seen Tyrod surrounded by this much offensive talent before. If this team was in AFC North I'd be able to buy into a wild card spot more.

They were actually somewhat competitive in games until the end last season before being hit by the most incompetent play calling I have ever seen.

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

They were actually somewhat competitive in games until the end last season before being hit by the most incompetent play calling I have ever seen.

they were but they couldnt beat anyone 

trubisky 

landry jones 

hundley

brisett 

 

they couldnt beat back ups last year 

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