DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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A guy his size should not be able to move the way he does:ph34r:

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

A guy his size should not be able to move the way he does:ph34r:


A lot of people are sleeping on him this year (it's almost as if Gordon has become a joke to some people). If I snag a good RB/RB with my first two, I have no problems picking Gordon + Another.

Gordon, on any week, can become a Top WR1. If it's not his week, he's a WR2. But you also have another semi-high drafted WR in Allen Robinson or someone close to that ADP... guys who are proven to have high ceilings with a lot of usage.

In PPR, you can potentially have:

Gurley (RB1)
McCoy / CMC  (RB1)
Gordon (WR1/2)
A. Rob (WR2/1)

I've done a couple of drafts already and a few mocks. This setup offers a lot of flexibility with roster construction. Any given week, a potential of 4 RB1/WR1's.

Edited by ponza88
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In the last 2 weeks he has went from the middle to of the 4th round to the middle of the 3rd round, which coincides with Brown's OTAs and an instagram post of him looking like he's been living in the gym. Now with the Browns being on Hardknocks this season there is absolutley no way he doesn't go in the top 20 picks of leagues that draft late and honestly I think he will still be worth it. I'm not saying he will getback to 2013 numbers (1700 yards and 8 TDs) but he doesn't need those numbers to provide value. When comparing him in 2013 to now he has a lot more going for him, yes he is 4 years older but is still in his athletic prime at 27 YO. He has a better head coach, for offensive  purposes sorry Chud, but his OC is a slight downgrade IMO. Now onto supporting cast he currently has 2 QBs better than the 3 he played with in 2013 and no offense to Jordan Cameron but there was 1 player you had to gameplan to stop when playing the browns in 2013 as gordon had more receiving yards than all of the other browns receivers put together. Let's not forget that this man went into New England coming off of the greatest 2 game stretch by any WR in NFL history, going against one of the best most physical corners in the NFL and the best coach at taking away other teams best players and had 7 for 150 and a TD and almost singlehandedly willed the browns to a victory over the patriots in foxborough. Outside of Rob Gronkowski and maybe Julio, Josh Gordon is the most most physically dominant skill position player in the NFL. He will get his stats as Hue Jackson demonstrated this last year when he came back as an out of shape player from a 2.5 year suspension and peppered him with targets. 

If anyone decides they won't draft him because he's an idiot who they think will get suspended again, that's fine but if anyone says they won't draft him because they dont think he will produce like a 2nd/3rd round WR they are just stupid.

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I currently have Gordon ranked around 18-20 overall. There are a lot of myths surrounding Gordon and I hope they continue to knock down his value as the draft approaches. Let's just examine the main 3.

 

1. Gordon is not a safe pick due to off field concerns.

This is slightly short sighted. Looking at history with no context isn't the way to go about the situation. In fact, it was quite clear even last August that this isn't the same man and it is even more clear now. He is a gym rat that has demonstrated clear change unlike his previous stints away from suspension. A little research into the situation will show his suspension risk is along the lines of someone like Bell who is in the conversation for first overall.

 

2. Gordon is not a good pick due to his QB

Sammy Watkins was on pace for 1,300 yards and 11 TDs in 2015 with the same QB. Now that same QB is in a better offense. Yes, A to B comparisons tend to be flawed but it demonstrates the ability of Taylor to not only support a WR1 but a top 5 WR. Gordon is more gifted than Watkins and is in an offense perfectly suited for him to succeed. This directly leads into argument 3 against Gordon.

 

3. Landry and others will take away from his success

Landry is not a great NFL WR and I don't understand how the narrative that he is keeps getting pushed. He is a good WR but not special to the extent to take away from Gordon. In fact, he will complement him. He has been a 5-6 TD guy and hovering around 1,000 yards his entire career with no threats to him on offense while also playing in an offense designed to benefit his needs. Doesn't scream like a threat to me. Gordon is mostly a deep threat with huge TD upside and Landry is no threat to that. Neither is anyone on the team. In fact, you'd have a better argument rephrasing that to "Landry and others will help benefit Gordons success." He can destroy defenses over the top and rack up huge plays and red zone targets while guys like Landry and Johnson do the "dirty work" per-say.

 

I understand Gordon has in large part been a living meme and a hype train but his return to stardom is going to be very real. The red flags are minimal and the signs pointing to a huge season are imminent. 

Edited by Gohawks
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10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The red flags are minimal 

 

Like at this parade...

 

Image result for red flags

 

Gordon is a gamble--there's no way around that--and he offers one of the largest risk-reward differentials out there.  If you're willing to place that bet and take your lumps or get your glory, fine; but I'll take Larry Fitzgerald two rounds later for his perennial top 10 production and missing 2 games in the last decade (both in 2014).

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47 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Like at this parade...

 

Image result for red flags

 

Gordon is a gamble--there's no way around that--and he offers one of the largest risk-reward differentials out there.  If you're willing to place that bet and take your lumps or get your glory, fine; but I'll take Larry Fitzgerald two rounds later for his perennial top 10 production and missing 2 games in the last decade (both in 2014).

Everyone is a gamble in fantasy football. Yes, some more than others. However, in correlation to ADP I don’t find Gordon’s red flags to outweigh that of most but his ceiling is much higher as is his median. 

 

I like Fitz and I don’t see why you can’t have both. They’re an incredible combo if you go RB/RB which is what I find a lot of drafts looking like.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

I like Fitz and I don’t see why you can’t have both.

 

One probly could; but I won't.

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1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

One probly could; but I won't.

If you use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Gordon it is necessary to surround him with high floor players or else you team will, more than likely, be in serious trouble. It probably wouldn't be the best idea to have him and a-rob on the same team but fitz is the type of player to help mitigate some of the risk involved with Gordon. If you plan on drafting Gordon you probably shouldn't start:

1. Barkley 

2. CMC, Mixon, Henry

3. Gordon

4. Arob

But a start like this doesn't look bad from a risk/reward standpoint

1. Fournette/Hunt

2. AJ

3. Gordon

4. Alshon/Fitz

I know it's weird to build your draft strategy around a 3rd round pick but gordon has enough talent to make that idea plausible.

 

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27 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

If you use a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Gordon it is necessary to surround him with high floor players or else you team will, more than likely, be in serious trouble. It probably wouldn't be the best idea to have him and a-rob on the same team but fitz is the type of player to help mitigate some of the risk involved with Gordon. If you plan on drafting Gordon you probably shouldn't start:

1. Barkley 

2. CMC, Mixon, Henry

3. Gordon

4. Arob

But a start like this doesn't look bad from a risk/reward standpoint

1. Fournette/Hunt

2. AJ

3. Gordon

4. Alshon/Fitz

I know it's weird to build your draft strategy around a 3rd round pick but gordon has enough talent to make that idea plausible.

 

 

I wouldn't like either of those starts, because both of them include Gordon as a 3rd rounder.

 

Maybe the funniest thing in your post is the "Alshon/Fitz" pairing, as if they were somehow similar picks when Fitz scores like 4 points more per week than Alshon.

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37 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Maybe the funniest thing in your post is the "Alshon/Fitz" pairing, as if they were somehow similar picks when Fitz scores like 4 points more per week than Alshon.

I fail to see how last years PPG fully determines this years rankings.

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I fail to see how last years PPG fully determines this years rankings.

 

Ah.  Well, it's good that you can identify your deficiencies; so many lack that kind of personal insight.

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21 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I fail to see how last years PPG fully determines this years rankings.

If you don't want to use 2017, use 2016...or 15...or 14. 

 

Has Alshon ever been better than Fitz??

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1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

I wouldn't like either of those starts, because both of them include Gordon as a 3rd rounder.

 

Maybe the funniest thing in your post is the "Alshon/Fitz" pairing, as if they were somehow similar picks when Fitz scores like 4 points more per week than Alshon.

Those were just players with similar ADPs as a choice of what you could get depending on ranges, obviously you like Fitz more as do I but there are some who would rather have Alshon. Gordon is a player who's on a lot of DND lists every year and this year will be no different. Half of your league will be in love with him and the other half will avoid him like the plague. But the fact remains he has the ability to perform like a first round pick that you can currently get for a mid 3rd round pick and I will take that risk all day.

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21 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Those were just players with similar ADPs as a choice of what you could get depending on ranges, obviously you like Fitz more as do I but there are some who would rather have Alshon.

 

Well, those are probly the same people who are tempted to draft Josh Gordon.

 

21 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

Gordon is a player who's on a lot of DND lists every year and this year will be no different. Half of your league will be in love with him and the other half will avoid him like the plague. But the fact remains he has the ability to perform like a first round pick that you can currently get for a mid 3rd round pick and I will take that risk all day.

 

It's like you don't even hear what you're saying.

 

[PARAPHRASE]Sure, you can opt for the value of a fifth-round pick who perennially scores among the top 10-12 WRs in PPR scoring, most recently finishing as the #4 PPR WR with an ugly mix of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert at QB after Palmer went down in Week 7 (and who now has the QB who holds the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and who has historically targeted his slot receiver on 24% of his passes--or a highly-drafted rookie; whichev), OR, you can go for the more costly, so-risky-that-half-the-league-wouldn't-draft-him-until-Round-10, longshot who MIGHT sneak into the top 10, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, and he gets traded away from the Cleveland offense into a market where there's no marijuana.[/PARAPHRASE]

 

You'll take THAT risk over Fitz all day?

 

BRILLIANT!

 

Edited by Axe Elf
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1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Well, those are probly the same people who are tempted to draft Josh Gordon.

 

 

It's like you don't even hear what you're saying.

 

[PARAPHRASE]Sure, you can opt for the value of a fifth-round pick who perennially scores among the top 10-12 WRs in PPR scoring, most recently finishing as the #4 PPR WR with an ugly mix of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert at QB after Palmer went down in Week 7 (and who now has the QB who holds the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and who has historically targeted his slot receiver on 24% of his passes--or a highly-drafted rookie; whichev), OR, you can go for the more costly, so-risky-that-half-the-league-wouldn't-draft-him-until-Round-10, longshot who MIGHT sneak into the top 10, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, and he gets traded away from the Cleveland offense into a market where there's no marijuana.[/PARAPHRASE]

 

You'll take THAT risk over Fitz all day?

 

BRILLIANT!

 

1


There's the straw-man. 

I see no reason to not draft Gordon based off of your Fitz comments. I'm more likely to pair him. You're not a believer in Gordon, great... but the bolded is purely your opinion. Some, including me, believe he has the talent to be Top 5, maybe even Top 3. Who has proven to be the best NFL WR, in 2013. Sitting around the 3/4.

Drafting is all about value. Gordon offers many more positive catalysts than players being drafted around him. He also has a safe floor. 

I fail to see the knock on drafting Gordon, if you potentially have two RB1's drafted before him, with another high-ceiling, high-usage WR... like Fitz.

Edited by ponza88

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11 minutes ago, ponza88 said:


There's the straw-man. 

I see no reason to not draft Gordon based off of your Fitz comments. I'm more likely to pair him. You're not a believer in Gordon, great... but the bolded is purely your opinion. Some, including me, believe he has the talent to be Top 5, maybe even Top 3. Who has proven to be the best NFL WR, in 2013. Sitting around the 3/4.

Drafting is all about value. Gordon offers many more positive catalysts than players being drafted around him. He also has a safe floor. 

I fail to see the knock on drafting Gordon, if you potentially have two RB1's drafted before him, with another high-ceiling, high-usage WR... like Fitz.

 

So join the league that you challenged me to, and put your theory to the test--but understand that Gordon's talent, in a vacuum, has never been in question.

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3 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

So join the league that you challenged me to, and put your theory to the test--but understand that Gordon's talent, in a vacuum, has never been in question.


I'm planning on it.

But let's not deflect now lol

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1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Well, those are probly the same people who are tempted to draft Josh Gordon.

 

 

It's like you don't even hear what you're saying.

 

[PARAPHRASE]Sure, you can opt for the value of a fifth-round pick who perennially scores among the top 10-12 WRs in PPR scoring, most recently finishing as the #4 PPR WR with an ugly mix of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert at QB after Palmer went down in Week 7 (and who now has the QB who holds the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and who has historically targeted his slot receiver on 24% of his passes--or a highly-drafted rookie; whichev), OR, you can go for the more costly, so-risky-that-half-the-league-wouldn't-draft-him-until-Round-10, longshot who MIGHT sneak into the top 10, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, and he gets traded away from the Cleveland offense into a market where there's no marijuana.[/PARAPHRASE]

 

You'll take THAT risk over Fitz all day?

 

BRILLIANT!

 

What the hell does Fitz have to do with Gordon? 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

What the hell does Fitz have to do with Gordon? 

 

Fitz is a contrasting example of a way safer bet for top 10 production at a way cheaper price than Gordon, which renders any rant about Gordon's "draft value" moot.

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Just now, Axe Elf said:

 

Fitz is a contrasting example of a way safer bet for top 10 production at a way cheaper price than Gordon, which renders any rant about Gordon's "draft value" moot.

So ceilings are irrelevant now. Well alright...

 

By the way, history shows a pretty sharp decline (cliff) in the position once they hit 35. So there’s that slight problem for Fitzgerald. 

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

What the hell does Fitz have to do with Gordon? 

Fitz and Gordon are being drafted in the same range (PPR ADP).

 

32 (+1) Larry Fitzgerald ARI/9 WR 14 30 58 37 31 41
33 (-1) Zach Ertz PHI/9 TE 3 33 39 32 37 33
34 Kenyan Drake MIA/11 RB 17 35 55 31 40 34
35 Aaron Rodgers GB/7 QB 1 32 18 35 39 35
36 (+2) Stefon Diggs MIN/10 WR 15 (+1) 38 33 38 34 38
37 Amari Cooper OAK/7 WR 16 (-1) 36 34 36 44 36
38 (-2) Derrick Henry TEN/8 RB 18 40 54 34 35 32
39 Demaryius Thomas DEN/10 WR 17 37 61 43 41 43
40 (+2) Josh Gordon CLE/11 WR 18 (+2) 59 47 42 32 40

 

In current practice drafts Gordon’s ADP is 32nd overall.  Gordon a month ago was available in the 4th round (which was a good value), he’s now in the 3rd.  

 

Gordon in the 3rd is a lot riskier (obviously) though he has WR1 upside.  Fitz lacks Gordon’s upside, but if you start the draft RB-RB he might be the wiser choice.  If you have Gordon as your 2nd WR maybe Gordon is worth the risk.... maybe.

 

I like Diggs in the 3rd, he has more upside than Fitz but not as much risk as Gordon...

 

I still think the Browns will be run first so Gordon in the 3rd is a bit high.  If I draft late in the 3rd Gordon might be the best option... I’m avoiding Cooper like the plague.

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7 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Fitz is a contrasting example of a way safer bet for top 10 production at a way cheaper price than Gordon, which renders any rant about Gordon's "draft value" moot.


LOL. Such brittle logic.

Draft Value is moot because there's another WR that you think will be better this year, going later?


BRILLIANT!

Lol no.

Why not capitalize on both picks? Both extreme values... which goes towards my point that you failed to respond to. You can load up on RB/RB and have an awesome combo at WR because of the value picks / ADP.

IE: WR's like Gordon and Fitz.

Edited by ponza88

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9 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Well, those are probly the same people who are tempted to draft Josh Gordon.

 

 

It's like you don't even hear what you're saying.

 

[PARAPHRASE]Sure, you can opt for the value of a fifth-round pick who perennially scores among the top 10-12 WRs in PPR scoring, most recently finishing as the #4 PPR WR with an ugly mix of Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert at QB after Palmer went down in Week 7 (and who now has the QB who holds the NFL record for completion percentage in a season, and who has historically targeted his slot receiver on 24% of his passes--or a highly-drafted rookie; whichev), OR, you can go for the more costly, so-risky-that-half-the-league-wouldn't-draft-him-until-Round-10, longshot who MIGHT sneak into the top 10, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, and he gets traded away from the Cleveland offense into a market where there's no marijuana.[/PARAPHRASE]

 

You'll take THAT risk over Fitz all day?

 

BRILLIANT!

 

My point is I will take then both and pair them together. For as good as Fitz has been the last few years he also has some red flags associated with him. New QB, he is 35 years old and most importantly he no longer has the coach who elongates and revives the careers of older wide receivers. Hines Ward when he was in PIT, Reggie Wayne in IND, and Fitz in ARI were all thought to be done and somehow just kept going. I understand your point and you won't be drafting Gordon and that's fine but my arguement isn't Gordon V. Fitz and which one you should take my point was they compliment each other extremely well, in a floor/ceiling sense, and they would make good 3rd/4th round picks.

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4 hours ago, ponza88 said:

Why not capitalize on both picks? 
IE: WR's like Gordon and Fitz.

 

4 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

My point is I will take then both and pair them together.

 

Well, at least you guys will have ONE solid WR.

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4 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

My point is I will take then both and pair them together. For as good as Fitz has been the last few years he also has some red flags associated with him. New QB, he is 35 years old and most importantly he no longer has the coach who elongates and revives the careers of older wide receivers. Hines Ward when he was in PIT, Reggie Wayne in IND, and Fitz in ARI were all thought to be done and somehow just kept going. I understand your point and you won't be drafting Gordon and that's fine but my arguement isn't Gordon V. Fitz and which one you should take my point was they compliment each other extremely well, in a floor/ceiling sense, and they would make good 3rd/4th round picks.

Which one is the 4th round pick?  According to ADP it’s neither...

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