DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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4 hours ago, seanismorris said:

Fitz lacks Gordon’s upside...

 

I like Diggs in the 3rd, he has more upside than Fitz...

 

Given that Fitz' baseline is top 10 WR with the upside to be #1 overall (he finished #4 overall last year with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton at QB), I"m just curious what you think Gordon's and Diggs' upsides are.

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20 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Which one is the 4th round pick?  According to ADP it’s neither...

ADP all depends on which platform/website you use as every one will have different numbers. I was using Fantasy football Calculator and they have fitz currently as an early 5th round pick

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2 minutes ago, Ddam2013 said:

ADP all depends on which platform/website you use as every one will have different numbers. I was using Fantasy football Calculator and they have fitz currently as an early 5th round pick


Exactly.

Also, every draft is different. Players fall to you.

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30 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Which one is the 4th round pick?  According to ADP it’s neither...

According to the last 2 draftmaster s I played I snagged Gordon late 4th. I expect that to change closer to season though

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4 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

ADP all depends on which platform/website you use as every one will have different numbers. I was using Fantasy football Calculator and they have fitz currently as an early 5th round pick

Any league (PPR or otherwise) that lets Fitz fall to the 5th is a league I want to be in... it’s populated by fools.

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4 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

According to the last 2 draftmaster s I played I snagged Gordon late 4th. I expect that to change closer to season though

I used to be able to get Gordon in the 4th in PPR practice drafts.  That’s no longer true.  

 

I do practice drafts here:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mock-draft

 

If you look under Draft Tools and ADP, you’ll see my experience holds true. (They compile the data on the practice drafts)

 

Here you’ll see multiple ADP numbers, and that Gordon is moving up in the “consensus” ADP rankings.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp-ppr.php

 

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Just now, seanismorris said:

I used to be able to get Gordon in the 4th in PPR practice drafts.  That’s no longer true.  

 

I do practice drafts here:

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mock-draft

 

If you look under Draft Tools and ADP, you’ll see my experience holds true. (They compile the data on the practice drafts)

 

Here you’ll see multiple ADP numbers, and that Gordon is moving up in the “consensus” ADP rankings.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp-ppr.php

 

I tried FFC a few days ago and the adp was quite different than the way my real drafts played out.

 

i suspect pre draft rankings have a fairly large influence on the draft itself. Seeing a player buried on the list may have you take a risk thinking he'll be hidden and you can get him a round later.

 

i keep going back to Gordon but in RT sports he is waaay down on the top 300 list which is why I'm getting him in the 4th

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4 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Given that Fitz' baseline is top 10 WR with the upside to be #1 overall (he finished #4 overall last year with Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton at QB), I"m just curious what you think Gordon's and Diggs' upsides are.

Fitz I see as more as a 1000 yrd 6TD guy.  I expect his numbers to slip from 2017 to more like 2016 because of DJ’s return, etc.

 

I see Fitz having a good chance to finish top10, but only 15% chance to be top5, and zero chance of being #1.  If age (injuries) catch up with him I’ll give a 30% chance of being outside of top10.

 

That in my mind, makes Fitz 3rd round worthy.

 

Diggs (I think) has a good chance of taking the #1 WR job of the Vikings.  He hasn’t done what Fitz has, but he’s an ascending player on a better team.  He just needs to stay healthy...  he should score more TDs than Fitz, and that’s his upside.  Let’s say 20% chance of being top5.

 

With Gordon his upside is #1, but it’s likely he falls out top15.  I have a gut feeling he’s a value in the 4th, but he might have the worst coach of all time...  What’s the probability the Browns move on from Hue in the first few games?  I have no  idea... because I don’t know how he still has a job.

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11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I tried FFC a few days ago and the adp was quite different than the way my real drafts played out.

 

i suspect pre draft rankings have a fairly large influence on the draft itself. Seeing a player buried on the list may have you take a risk thinking he'll be hidden and you can get him a round later.

 

i keep going back to Gordon but in RT sports he is waaay down on the top 300 list which is why I'm getting him in the 4th

We’ll see.  Gordon has some major hype powering his move up.  He is a freak athelete...

 

My “real” draft is the last week of the preseason, with the draft order undetermined... but I don’t expect Gordon to be around in the 4th.  If he is i’ll be taking him.

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10 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

We’ll see.  Gordon has some major hype powering his move up.  He is a freak athelete...

 

My “real” draft is the last week of the preseason, with the draft order undetermined... but I don’t expect Gordon to be around in the 4th.  If he is i’ll be taking him.

What site are you using?

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10 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Fitz I see as more as a 1000 yrd 6TD guy.  I expect his numbers to slip from 2017 to more like 2016...

 

Well yeah, that's pretty much what he's been for the last two seasons.  And with 109 receptions last year it was good for 4th place among PPR WRs.  But you see him "regressing" to 2016 (when he scored like 15 fewer fantasy points on 2 fewer receptions) with a much better QB this season?  Heck, even if he does drop 15 fantasy  points, I'll still take that.

 

16 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I see Fitz having a good chance to finish top10, but only 15% chance to be top5, and zero chance of being #1.  If age (injuries) catch up with him I’ll give a 30% chance of being outside of top10.

 

That in my mind, makes Fitz 3rd round worthy.

 

Diggs (I think) has a good chance of taking the #1 WR job of the Vikings.  He hasn’t done what Fitz has, but he’s an ascending player on a better team.  He just needs to stay healthy...  he should score more TDs than Fitz, and that’s his upside.  Let’s say 20% chance of being top5.

 

All those percentages sound official and stuff, but they literally mean nothing.  Only a 15% chance of doing as well as he did last year, with a better QB and an improved running game to keep defenders close to the LOS?  I'm gonna hafta question the algorithm there.

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6 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Well yeah, that's pretty much what he's been for the last two seasons.  And with 109 receptions last year it was good for 4th place among PPR WRs.  But you see him "regressing" to 2016 (when he scored like 15 fewer fantasy points on 2 fewer receptions) with a much better QB this season?  Heck, even if he does drop 15 fantasy  points, I'll still take that.

 

 

All those percentages sound official and stuff, but they literally mean nothing.  Only a 15% chance of doing as well as he did last year, with a better QB and an improved running game to keep defenders close to the LOS?  I'm gonna hafta question the algorithm there.

Is Fitz going to have more receptions than last year?  The 109 is tied for his career best in 2017...

 

The Cards will be better than most people think (I agree there) but it won’t be all on Fitz like last year.

 

Fitz is top10 but lacks upside.  The 3rd round is appropriate for a WR in his 14th year.

 

A lot of things went wrong or right in 2017 for Fitz to rank as high as he did.  DJ going down, OBJ... multiple QB out that normally support top WRs.

 

Is Fitz a better choice than Gordon?  I think so.  But taking him over the other WRs available is situational.  I expect to be drafting for more risk in the 3rd round...

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Fitz is top10 but lacks upside.

 

lol

 

When you're already top 10, how much upside can there be?

 

That would be akin to a concern over Christine Michael's downside.

 

But this is the Josh Gordon thread.

 

Edited by Axe Elf

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8 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

 

lol

 

When you're already top 10, how much upside can there be?

 

That would be akin to a concern over Christine Michael's downside.

 

But this is the Josh Gordon thread.

 

Your refusal to even acknowledge the age factor is ridiculous. He’s going to be 35. WRs tend to fall off a cliff at that age.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Your refusal to even acknowledge the age factor is ridiculous. He’s going to be 35. WRs tend to fall off a cliff at that age.

 

More like they tend to slide down a slope than fall off a cliff.

 

And then there are the Hall of Famers, who don't so much.

 

I don't mind if he slides from #4 to #8, but with a better QB and better running game to support him, the increased opportunity should counter the decreased productivity to a large extent.

 

There, I acknowledged it.  Happy now?

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55 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Josh Gordon ceiling : wr1

larry fitz ceiling: wr6 (maybe)

 

That's just laughable, regarding Fitz, and if this wasn't the Gordon thread, I would explain why.  Or you could read the Fitz thread and figure it out for yourself.

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25 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

That's just laughable, regarding Fitz, and if this wasn't the Gordon thread, I would explain why.  Or you could read the Fitz thread and figure it out for yourself.

Fitz just doesn’t have enough left in the tank. You think his ceiling is what? 

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2 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Fitz just doesn’t have enough left in the tank. You think his ceiling is what? 

 

His ceiling is your embarrassed admission that you should have listened to the Elf like everyone else.

 

But again, this is the Josh Gordon thread.

 

Edited by Axe Elf

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43 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

His ceiling is your embarrassed admission that you should have listened to the Elf like everyone else.

 

But again, this is the Josh Gordon thread.

 

Lol

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15 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Josh Gordon ceiling : wr1

larry fitz ceiling: wr6 (maybe)

 

 

WR6 maybe?  I mean he finished as WR4 last year, so I would think that is at least his ceiling.  I agree Gordon absolutely has the higher ceiling, but Fitz has a MUCH safer floor, and has proven he can provide Top 5 numbers.

 

Also, are we so sure Gordon's ceiling is WR1?  AB and Deandre Hopkins still exist.  OBJ will be back this year.  If we take Gordon's stats from 2013 (his monster year), he would still have only been WR3 overall last year.  And he got 159 targets that year on a team that was constantly playing from behind and forcing Gordon the ball.  This might be a completely different Browns offense that is actually somewhat effective, not behind as much, and doesn't need to force feed Gordon because they have a bunch of other playmakers.

Edited by Fort4242

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30 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

WR6 maybe?  I mean he finished as WR4 last year, so I would think that is at least his ceiling.  I agree Gordon absolutely has the higher ceiling, but Fitz has a MUCH safer floor, and has proven he can provide Top 5 numbers.

 

Also, are we so sure Gordon's ceiling is WR1?  AB and Deandre Hopkins still exist.  OBJ will be back this year.  If we take Gordon's stats from 2013 (his monster year), he would still have only been WR3 overall last year.  And he got 159 targets that year on a team that was constantly playing from behind and forcing Gordon the ball.  This might be a completely different Browns offense that is actually somewhat effective, not behind as much, and doesn't need to force feed Gordon because they have a bunch of other playmakers.

 

To be fair, though, he also missed a small handful of games during his monster season (suspension). His target share is likely to fall but he should see a significant increase in efficiency with his new QB situation. His catch rate has been laughably bad in the past, most of which is due to his QBs. A drop in target share should be offset with an increased catch rate, and if you assume his YPC remain the same, he can still put up some big numbers. I am curious how he does in the TD department. 

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

WR6 maybe?  I mean he finished as WR4 last year, so I would think that is at least his ceiling.  I agree Gordon absolutely has the higher ceiling, but Fitz has a MUCH safer floor, and has proven he can provide Top 5 numbers.

 

Also, are we so sure Gordon's ceiling is WR1?  AB and Deandre Hopkins still exist.  OBJ will be back this year.  If we take Gordon's stats from 2013 (his monster year), he would still have only been WR3 overall last year.  And he got 159 targets that year on a team that was constantly playing from behind and forcing Gordon the ball.  This might be a completely different Browns offense that is actually somewhat effective, not behind as much, and doesn't need to force feed Gordon because they have a bunch of other playmakers.

 

Yes.

 

And, Yes he would have. Those stats came from only 12 games after a suspension.

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1 minute ago, ponza88 said:

 

Yes.

 

And, Yes he would have. Those stats came from only 12 games after a suspension.

I believe it was 14 games actually. 

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3 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I believe it was 14 games actually. 

 

You're right, my bad. It's been awhile.

 

Still, my point still stands. WR1 after a long suspension, with 2 less games, playing with QBBC.

 

If his situation last year was the same as AB or Hopkins, Gordon would have been better than them.

Edited by ponza88

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