DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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You right - I forgot he was out 2 games that year.  Still, I don't see the WR1 overall ceiling.  I guess I'm being nitpickey.  

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Well with Odell coming back, I don’t see a best case scenario where Larry fitz finishes wr4. Best case scenario, yes I can see gordon finishing as the wr1. Is that the most likely scenario? No, I personally don’t think so, but it’s possible. Not possible, imo, for fitz to finish 4 or higher 

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From a draft we have going on, I selected Josh Gordon and someone asked me how I felt about Landy threatening his work load, I wanted to take an analytical approach and figured I'd share my thoughts over here.

 

2013 isn't even relevant to statistical analysis at this point, but for what it's worth Stone hands Greg Little got 99 targets, Devone Bess got another 86, while T.Rich took another 52.  Granted this is in a year where CLE threw the ball 681 times.  What does that mean for the Browns in 2018?  Probably nothing.

 

In 2017 CLE threw the ball only 574 times, in 2016, 567.  I 'think' this is when Hue showed up? So that's the data sample I'm going to focus on.

This gives us an average of 570 attempts for the CLE offense.

 

In his career year, Gordon accounted for 159/14*16=182 targets/681 = 27% target share.

27% of 570 = 154 targets. (Would have been 6th in the league among WRs last year, if he could maintain that %)

Looks like roughly ~105 targets went to RBs last year, another 120 to TEs.

That leaves us with realistically 570-120-105= 345 attempts to WRs.

 

You can split that as you wish, here's a breakdown of 2016 I found:

2016 target breakdown 
Terrelle Pryor: 24.7% target share | 140 targets | 77 catches | 1,007 yards | 4 TDs 
Gary Barnidge: 14.5% target share | 82 targets | 55 catches | 612 yards | 2 TDs 
Duke Johnson: 13.1% target share | 74 targets | 53 catches | 514 yards | 0 TDs 
Corey Coleman: 12.9% target share | 73 targets | 33 catches | 413 yards | 3 TDs 
Andrew Hawkins: 9.5% target share | 54 targets | 33 catches | 324 yards | 3 TDs

 

Jarvis is 10 times the receiver Coleman/Hawkins are, so I expect him to see a significant increase.

Glancing at the league average, the #1 WR on any team seems to cap at a 30% target share when the skill drop is a cliff, and as low as 16% when there's no skill drop.  The highest duo I see was a 25%/25% split, with a lot of 24/16 splits, which I think is more in line with what we can potentially see in CLE.

 

The main flaw in all this, is that Tyrod is not your typical QB and I don't expect him to match the pass attempts of Cle's past 2 years.  As of now Tyrod is averaging *457 attempts per year over the past 2, but I think CLE is the best supporting cast he's ever had in his career, what that's worth is yet to be seen.

 

I'll be crude AF and just mash these numbers together (457+570)/2= 513 attempts.  I'm going to call it 500 to be on the safer side.  If Tyrod his 500 attempts this year, I think that would be a realistic goal or hope.

 

28% = 140 Targets

24% = 120 Targets

20% = 100 Targets

16% = 80 Targets

 

Personally, I don't think RB/TE targets are subject to total attempts, because they're more a product of game situation and design. (Zero proof to back this up)

Basically, I think the RBs will account for 24% (combined)

I think the TEs will account for 20% (combined)

That leaves us with 56% of the total pass attempts remaining for JG, JL, and the field.

 

I'd say JG should dictate close to 26%.

Leaving us with another 30% for Landry and the field.  The field pales in comparison to Landry, so if they're coming away with more than 8% (40 targets, roughly 3 a game) then I would be disappointed.  That leads me to believe Landry could be slated for 22% or 110 targets.

 

Food for thought, in 2015 Tyrod Taylor was on pace for 434 attempts.  For 12 of those games Sammy Watkins was at 93/60/1047 which extrapolates to 124 targets, 80 catches, 1,396 yards.  That's a 21% target share for Watkins as Tyrod's #1.

 

Josh Gordon has a 52% Career catch rate and a 17.25 YPR rate.

130 targets, 68 catches, 1,166 yards, 5.7 TDs.  218.8 Fantasy points, 16th overall last year in full PPR.

 

Jarvis Landy has a 70% catch rates and a 10.08 YPR rate.

110 targets, 77 catches, 779 yards, 4.2 TDs.  180.1 Fantasy Points, 24th overall last year in full PPR.

 

Do keep in mind, Tyrod Taylor's career completion percentage is 62%, 7% higher than the Cle trio Gordon had in '13, same percent as Landry had from Jay Cutler last year, although 3-5% lower than what he had from Tanny.  Also, if Baker Mayfield plays, this breakdown goes out the window.  Oh, and don't forget Todd Haley is a new wrench in the system as well.

 

That's just my guess, but it's a full blown shot in the dark. /shrug

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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Jarvis is 10 times the receiver Coleman/Hawkins are, so I expect him to see a significant increase.

Glancing at the league average, the #1 WR on any team seems to cap at a 30% target share when the skill drop is a cliff, and as low as 16% when there's no skill drop.  The highest duo I see was a 25%/25% split, with a lot of 24/16 splits, which I think is more in line with what we can potentially see in CLE.

 

Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery in 2013 immediately came to mind as a target hog duo (28.7%/25.9% split). Just thought it was worth mentioning that we have an example in recent memory a decent amount higher than 25%/25%, on a team with a great pass-catching RB (Forte) and a solid TE (Martellus Bennett).

 

6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Personally, I don't think RB/TE targets are subject to total attempts, because they're more a product of game situation and design. (Zero proof to back this up)

 

Can you explain this and your reasoning behind it a little more? Are you saying the proportion of RB/TE targets is approximately constant, regardless of the number of pass attempts? Are you saying the total number of RB/TE targets is approximately constant, regardless of the number of pass attempts? Or something else entirely? I don't quite understand the point you are trying to make here.

 

7 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I'd say JG should dictate close to 26%.

Leaving us with another 30% for Landry and the field.  The field pales in comparison to Landry, so if they're coming away with more than 8% (40 targets, roughly 3 a game) then I would be disappointed.  That leads me to believe Landry could be slated for 22% or 110 targets.

 

 

Why do you assume JG takes more than Landry? Also, I think your 8% assumption is very optimistic for Gordon and Landry. On that 2013 Bears team, WRs outside of Marshall/Jeffery accounted for 8.4% of targets (and 7.5% of those were to Earl Bennett). Granted, they threw to RBs and TEs less (19.1% and 17.2%, respectively), but I feel like there is more receiving talent on this Browns team than that Bears team (since Earl Bennett was the only WR to record a meaningful amount of targets). Corey Coleman might be a massive disappointment thus far, but he still has more potential than Earl Bennett ever had (even if it's a lot less than everyone initially thought when Coleman was drafted), and Antonio Callaway has a shot at making an impact this year as well. Do you really think both of these guys, plus all other receivers on the Browns, are really going to average a combined 2.5 targets per game? That seems too low.

 

I am fine with the rest of your assumptions, they seem pretty reasonable. The only one that I haven't already addressed that I may question is that RB/TE one, once I fully understand your point better.

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I have Josh 20% market share as his floor and i'm not so sure that cle will be leading alot of games this season where the running game takes over, what i'm hoping for is a fast offense moving the ball down the field getting off a ton of plays.

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Freesite:

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/the-path-to-a-wr1-fantasy-season-josh-gordon/

 

Paysite

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2018-waldman-gutcheck-440-Josh-Gordon-is-Worth-the-Risk

Josh Gordon is a value. Even with an ADP higher than any production he's remotely delivered during the past five years, he's worth the risk.

With Todd Haley and Tyrod Taylor running the Cleveland Browns, Josh Gordon will be no worse than a top-20 fantasy receiver in PPR leagues if he starts 16 games. Fantasy owners believe it — Gordon's average draft position tells the story — but many fantasy analysts don't. 

Gordon is one of the most polarizing players among the Footballguys staff. After this article, my buddy Jason Wood will be swearing a blood oath to protect Footballguys subscribers from what he believes is a reckless take and tell them to run as far from it as possible. 

Especially when he learns that yours truly believes that a mentally and physically healthy Josh Gordon will be a top-5 PPR option if Tyrod Taylor performs to the level he did with Sammy Watkins in 2015 — and that's far less of a stretch than critics of Taylor characterize. 

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13 minutes ago, dashoe said:

With Todd Haley and Tyrod Taylor running the Cleveland Browns, Josh Gordon will be no worse than a top-20 fantasy receiver in PPR leagues if he starts 16 games.

 

He MIGHT sneak into the top 20 if everything goes perfectly, but come on--Kansas City QBs threw a total of 58 TDs in the three years that Haley coached them, and Tyrod Taylor has thrown 51 TDs over the past three years, turning Watkins, Goodwin and Woods into toads in the process.  Gordon is a downfield threat, and the Browns' offense will be geared to more of a move-the-chains, possession-type game--even if Mayfield takes the reins at some point.  And you're paying more for Gordon than Fitzgerald, Hilton, Diggs, Thomas, etc...  Throw in the double-digit percent chance that Gordon goes back to rehab at some point during the season, and I don't see the value there.

 

Edited by Axe Elf

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35 minutes ago, OBJfor6 said:

Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery in 2013 immediately came to mind as a target hog duo (28.7%/25.9% split). Just thought it was worth mentioning that we have an example in recent memory a decent amount higher than 25%/25%, on a team with a great pass-catching RB (Forte) and a solid TE (Martellus Bennett).

 

Can you explain this and your reasoning behind it a little more? Are you saying the proportion of RB/TE targets is approximately constant, regardless of the number of pass attempts? Are you saying the total number of RB/TE targets is approximately constant, regardless of the number of pass attempts? Or something else entirely? I don't quite understand the point you are trying to make here.

 

Why do you assume JG takes more than Landry? Also, I think your 8% assumption is very optimistic for Gordon and Landry. On that 2013 Bears team, WRs outside of Marshall/Jeffery accounted for 8.4% of targets (and 7.5% of those were to Earl Bennett). Granted, they threw to RBs and TEs less (19.1% and 17.2%, respectively), but I feel like there is more receiving talent on this Browns team than that Bears team (since Earl Bennett was the only WR to record a meaningful amount of targets). Corey Coleman might be a massive disappointment thus far, but he still has more potential than Earl Bennett ever had (even if it's a lot less than everyone initially thought when Coleman was drafted), and Antonio Callaway has a shot at making an impact this year as well. Do you really think both of these guys, plus all other receivers on the Browns, are really going to average a combined 2.5 targets per game? That seems too low.

 

I am fine with the rest of your assumptions, they seem pretty reasonable. The only one that I haven't already addressed that I may question is that RB/TE one, once I fully understand your point better.

 

I don't really have any desire to repeat the Fournette thread, especially on a post I literally called 'a full blown shot in the dark'.

 

This is going to be short and sweet.

 

In 2016 DT and ES had a 25/24 split for Denver.

Jordy/Adams had a 25/20 split for GB.

Britt/Tavon had a 20/20 split for Rams.

Landry Parker 28/18

OBJ/Shepard 28/18

Crab/Coop 24/22

 

As I said in the original post, I have zero data to back up my claim.  Basically, I feel a lot of a teams 'dump offs' are not by design, they are just a product of a play breaking down, no options downfield, a QB on the run, etc.  Obviously many are designed and certain TEs have dedicated receiving roles, so this is just an opinion and has no basis on the game, or stats of real or fake football.  All I'm saying is that unless a team has a RB there are committed to getting 60+ targets a year, then check downs, dump offs, etc are not the QBs goal 80% of the time, it's a last resort.  Therefor, whether the QB throws 600 times, or 500 times, I think the amount of times a RB/TE is targeted (again, please keep in mind this is non-Gronk, Non-David Johnson offenses, doesn't apply to wheel routes, screens, etc) is generally unaffected.  If a QB is throwing it 600 times on a team like the Browns, it's because they're a team that wants to throw the ball down field, mostly to their WRs.  How many of Duke's targets last year were designed plays specifically for him versus a relief valve, checkdown, dump off, under pressure get rid of the ball asap scenarios?  I don't know, as I stated, I have zero proof to back up this claim.

Long story short, whether the Browns throw 600 times with a pocket QB or 500 times with a running QB, both QBs are going to need to dump the ball off a handful of times every game, so I don't see the total pass attempts having a large variance on the amount of throws that go to RBs or TEs. (Reminder, I'm not talking Sproles, DJ, Riddick, Kamara, McCaffrey, Woodhead, or Bells of the world.)  Sure, you can make a valid point that maybe Duke should be in that conversation, and I wouldn't fault you.  Either way you look at it, I'm just saying, it doesn't matter who the QB is, or how many times they throw, I think Duke and the RBs are still going to get their targets I guess.

 

I assume JG takes more than Landry, because I think JG is an alpha #1 WR, and I think Landry is a slot WR.  An extremely talented and underrated one, but still I expect him to be the second read, and there's concern that he and Duke might overlap too much in the short/middle area of the field.  I wouldn't be shocked if Landry leads the team in targets.  Hell I only have them 20 apart, that's basically 1 target a game falling from one to the other tipping the scales.

 

Corey Coleman is trash until proven otherwise.  For what it's worth, I just ran some quick numbers.

Over the final 5 weeks of the year with Josh Gordon on the field, CLE had *175 targets.

 

Gordon 24.5% (8 targets per game)

Coleman 14% (5 targets per game)

Field 17% (6 targets per game)

RBs 24.5% (8 targets per game)

TEs 19% (6 targets per game)

 

Basically pretty damn close to my guesses from above post.

I think a fully prepared Gordon gets more targets than fresh out of the car dealer/rehab JG.

Coleman and Crew are 31% combined.  I think Landry dominates this group, he's miles better than any of them.

20-22% leaves 9-11% for the field.  Maybe RBs and TEs lose a bit of work to Landry, so you can adjust those percentages to the field, if it helps you sleep.

It's just a rough guess.  I'm not stating this as fact or gospel, just if I'm breaking down the numbers, this would be my baseline estimate.  A baseline estimate of a team with essentially 2 new WRs, 1 new RB, a new QB, and a new OC.  It's literally just a guess and should be taken with a massive grain of salt.  I'm not going to fight anyone who thinks my numbers are off, they're just what I came up with in a complete evolving offense and team, that might go through another transformation if Baker starts at any point.  I wouldn't put much thought into this, honestly.

 

If Gordon averaged 8-9 targets a game we're looking at 128-144 on the year.

If Landy averages 6-7 targets a game we're looking at 96-112 on the year.

If the field averages 4-5 targets a game we're looking at 64-80 on the year.

That's 32-35 attempts per game, 512-560 on the season, which I think is optimistic for Tyrod. (Well, on the high end anyways, 512 is doable, depending on Haley)

Tyrod averages 29 attempts per game over the last 2 seasons.  So... no, I don't really think it's crazy for Coleman and Crew to see only 3-4 targets a game on average.

In order for them to demand more targets, you have to convince me, that they deserve the looks more than Gordon, Landry, Duke, Hyde.  I could easily be convinced that Coleman deserves more looks than Njoku and Devalve though.  Again, take some targets from the TE and redistribute them to WRs.  Based on what I can find, the Browns were running the 12 formation (3 wide) over 50% of the time last year, and we all know how often Haley used it with PIT, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least.

 

That's the only rationale I've got.  This is a drastically different offensive scenario than ever before, anyone who pretends to know exactly what's going to happen with the Browns offensive breakdown this year, is likely someone you can't trust.  I can make an...analytical-educated-best-guess, but nothing more.  I would gladly welcome anyone else to share theirs.

 

I 'm not here to disrupt the hype train of Flash Gordon as the #1 WR off the board, fantasy MVP, 1600/16, future hall of famer, etc, so I'll just...

Image result for carry on gif

 

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I think it is a very optimistic look to think Gordon has more targets than a possession receiver like Landry.  I love Gordon and think he will be just fine this year, but he's unlikely to pass Landry in targets imo. 

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@FFCollusion

Why do you think Landry is underrated? I’ve always thought he is overrated. Barely cracking 1,000 yards on a team with little other threats to his production. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

@FFCollusion

Why do you think Landry is underrated? I’ve always thought he is overrated. Barely cracking 1,000 yards on a team with little other threats to his production. 

 

The short version?

 

Since Jarvis Landry entered the NFL in 2014 there are only 6 WRs who have scored more fantasy points than him.

 

Over this 4 year span he's:

3rd in receptions (400)

4th in catch rate (70.2%) *Min 200 Catches to Qualify, 50 per year

12th in reception yards  (4038)

20th in receiving TDs (22)

 

He's never missed a game.

Over the past 3 years, he's finished 11th, 13th, and 4th in fantasy.

His worst year as a receiver was his rookie season, where he still finished top 30.

 

He's been under drafted every single year,

He's over produced every single year,

Yet here we are, with people like yourself who think he's 'overrated'.

 

Which is exactly why I think Jarvis Landry UNDERrated.

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10 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I don't really have any desire to repeat the Fournette thread, especially on a post I literally called 'a full blown shot in the dark'.

1

Neither do I. But why post a "full blown shot in the dark" if you don't want any feedback on it? I'm trying to help your first stab at it become more than just a stab at it. If that is such an annoyance to you, why do you even bother posting in the first place?

 

10 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

As I said in the original post, I have zero data to back up my claim.  Basically, I feel a lot of a teams 'dump offs' are not by design, they are just a product of a play breaking down, no options downfield, a QB on the run, etc.  Obviously many are designed and certain TEs have dedicated receiving roles, so this is just an opinion and has no basis on the game, or stats of real or fake football.  All I'm saying is that unless a team has a RB there are committed to getting 60+ targets a year, then check downs, dump offs, etc are not the QBs goal 80% of the time, it's a last resort.  Therefor, whether the QB throws 600 times, or 500 times, I think the amount of times a RB/TE is targeted (again, please keep in mind this is non-Gronk, Non-David Johnson offenses, doesn't apply to wheel routes, screens, etc) is generally unaffected.  If a QB is throwing it 600 times on a team like the Browns, it's because they're a team that wants to throw the ball down field, mostly to their WRs.  How many of Duke's targets last year were designed plays specifically for him versus a relief valve, checkdown, dump off, under pressure get rid of the ball asap scenarios?  I don't know, as I stated, I have zero proof to back up this claim.

Long story short, whether the Browns throw 600 times with a pocket QB or 500 times with a running QB, both QBs are going to need to dump the ball off a handful of times every game, so I don't see the total pass attempts having a large variance on the amount of throws that go to RBs or TEs. (Reminder, I'm not talking Sproles, DJ, Riddick, Kamara, McCaffrey, Woodhead, or Bells of the world.)  Sure, you can make a valid point that maybe Duke should be in that conversation, and I wouldn't fault you.  Either way you look at it, I'm just saying, it doesn't matter who the QB is, or how many times they throw, I think Duke and the RBs are still going to get their targets I guess.

8

I didn't ask you for proof, or for data - you already stated you don't have it. I just wanted your reasoning, that's all.

 

While I agree that RB/TE targets are probably more subject to game situations and less to design than WR targets, I think it is a gross oversimplification to assume that practically all RB/TE targets are a product of game situation if a Gronk/DJ talent isn't involved. I don't see this as a point worth spending a lot of time trying to quantify, so we can agree to disagree.

 

My biggest problem with this assumption applied to this situation is that you leave no room for Njoku to be anything more than a middling TE. Njoku was a first round TE last year, has an uber-athletic profile, was a fairly productive college player for a TE, and had a fine rookie season. His profile and body of work is pretty similar to Gronk and Graham in 2010 (both rookies), who both had career years in 2011. Now, I am not implying that I expect any sort of improvement from Njoku (I personally hate the "he's a year more experienced, he will get better" narrative. Some guys do, some guys don't). Only that he is another variable that can throw a wrench in your projections should he take a major step forward - a variable you have not acknowledged.

 

I also don't understand why you are taking the approximate proportion of RB/TE targets from last year (24%/20%) and keeping them constant for this year, even though you just said it's not the proportion you expect to be constant, it's the number of attempts you expect to be constant. You are projecting a significant decrease in pass attempts, yet you are using the RB/TE proportions from last year instead of the RB/TE attempts from last year. You are contradicting yourself here.

 

11 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I assume JG takes more than Landry, because I think JG is an alpha #1 WR, and I think Landry is a slot WR.  An extremely talented and underrated one, but still I expect him to be the second read, and there's concern that he and Duke might overlap too much in the short/middle area of the field.  I wouldn't be shocked if Landry leads the team in targets.  Hell I only have them 20 apart, that's basically 1 target a game falling from one to the other tipping the scales.

1

The first thing that came to mind was Moss/Welker in 2007 (I keep saying this to illustrate I am not trying to reach and cherry pick for examples from ages ago, and that I am quickly coming up with situations similar enough and then investigating). Moss had a 27.3% target share, Welker had a 24.7% target share - a 2.6% difference. This is smaller than the 4% difference you assume between JG and Landry, and I would argue that Landry is closer to Welker as a talent than JG is to Randy Moss as a talent (especially considering that JG has barely played in the past 5 years, and that this was Randy Moss' legendary season). I would also think that Tom Brady is better at pushing the ball downfield (which should benefit an alpha #1 like Moss more than it does a slot receiver like Welker) than Tyrod Taylor is. I'm sure I could quantify this, but I think it's obvious enough that it doesn't need further investigation. All of this suggests that the 4% difference is optimistic for JG, and that it probably will be smaller than the 2.6% Moss/Welker difference.

 

11 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Corey Coleman is trash until proven otherwise.  For what it's worth, I just ran some quick numbers.

Over the final 5 weeks of the year with Josh Gordon on the field, CLE had *175 targets.

 

Gordon 24.5% (8 targets per game)

Coleman 14% (5 targets per game)

Field 17% (6 targets per game)

RBs 24.5% (8 targets per game)

TEs 19% (6 targets per game)

 

Basically pretty damn close to my guesses from above post.

 

You are assuming that adding a much better pass catcher to the team doesn't impact JG's targets at all (in fact, you are expecting a slight increase because he has a full offseason to train). I agree that most of Landry's targets should come from others and not JG, but to assume that Landry's presence does absolutely nothing to JG's target share is overly optimistic.

 

11 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

In order for them to demand more targets, you have to convince me, that they deserve the looks more than Gordon, Landry, Duke, Hyde.  I could easily be convinced that Coleman deserves more looks than Njoku and Devalve though. 

 

Again, you completely discredit Njoku having any sort of talent or upside whatsoever. Why?

 

11 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

A baseline estimate of a team with essentially 2 new WRs, 1 new RB, a new QB, and a new OC.  It's literally just a guess and should be taken with a massive grain of salt.  I'm not going to fight anyone who thinks my numbers are off, they're just what I came up with in a complete evolving offense and team, that might go through another transformation if Baker starts at any point.  I wouldn't put much thought into this, honestly.

 

Of course, this is the situation with the most change in the league. There are too many variables to account for to be able to make an accurate prediction.

 

All I am saying is that most of your assumptions tilt in JG's favor, and my guess is because you like the player enough that you want to justify being able to draft him at his price.

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

The short version?

 

Since Jarvis Landry entered the NFL in 2014 there are only 6 WRs who have scored more fantasy points than him.

 

Over this 4 year span he's:

3rd in receptions (400)

4th in catch rate (70.2%) *Min 200 Catches to Qualify, 50 per year

12th in reception yards  (4038)

20th in receiving TDs (22)

 

He's never missed a game.

Over the past 3 years, he's finished 11th, 13th, and 4th in fantasy.

His worst year as a receiver was his rookie season, where he still finished top 30.

 

He's been under drafted every single year,

He's over produced every single year,

Yet here we are, with people like yourself who think he's 'overrated'.

 

Which is exactly why I think Jarvis Landry UNDERrated.

I personally don’t believe consistency over that stretch is the best evaluation of talent. It just means you’re not injury prone. Where did he finish relative to others on a year by year basis? 

 

Also, in PPR he has done solid but PPR isn’t as good of an evaluator of talent as standard reality wise. A catch for 0 yards is fairly worthless in reality but is equivalent to 1 point in PPR which is the format that Landry is very good in.

 

I don’t think he’s bad but he wanted to be paid like a top 5 WR and a lot of people seem to think he is one of the top WR in the game. He’s good but he’s not an elite WR.

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38 minutes ago, OBJfor6 said:

Neither do I. But why post a "full blown shot in the dark" if you don't want any feedback on it? I'm trying to help your first stab at it become more than just a stab at it. If that is such an annoyance to you, why do you even bother posting in the first place?

 

I didn't ask you for proof, or for data - you already stated you don't have it. I just wanted your reasoning, that's all.

 

While I agree that RB/TE targets are probably more subject to game situations and less to design than WR targets, I think it is a gross oversimplification to assume that practically all RB/TE targets are a product of game situation if a Gronk/DJ talent isn't involved. I don't see this as a point worth spending a lot of time trying to quantify, so we can agree to disagree.

 

My biggest problem with this assumption applied to this situation is that you leave no room for Njoku to be anything more than a middling TE. Njoku was a first round TE last year, has an uber-athletic profile, was a fairly productive college player for a TE, and had a fine rookie season. His profile and body of work is pretty similar to Gronk and Graham in 2010 (both rookies), who both had career years in 2011. Now, I am not implying that I expect any sort of improvement from Njoku (I personally hate the "he's a year more experienced, he will get better" narrative. Some guys do, some guys don't). Only that he is another variable that can throw a wrench in your projections should he take a major step forward - a variable you have not acknowledged.

 

I also don't understand why you are taking the approximate proportion of RB/TE targets from last year (24%/20%) and keeping them constant for this year, even though you just said it's not the proportion you expect to be constant, it's the number of attempts you expect to be constant. You are projecting a significant decrease in pass attempts, yet you are using the RB/TE proportions from last year instead of the RB/TE attempts from last year. You are contradicting yourself here.

 

The first thing that came to mind was Moss/Welker in 2007 (I keep saying this to illustrate I am not trying to reach and cherry pick for examples from ages ago, and that I am quickly coming up with situations similar enough and then investigating). Moss had a 27.3% target share, Welker had a 24.7% target share - a 2.6% difference. This is smaller than the 4% difference you assume between JG and Landry, and I would argue that Landry is closer to Welker as a talent than JG is to Randy Moss as a talent (especially considering that JG has barely played in the past 5 years, and that this was Randy Moss' legendary season). I would also think that Tom Brady is better at pushing the ball downfield (which should benefit an alpha #1 like Moss more than it does a slot receiver like Welker) than Tyrod Taylor is. I'm sure I could quantify this, but I think it's obvious enough that it doesn't need further investigation. All of this suggests that the 4% difference is optimistic for JG, and that it probably will be smaller than the 2.6% Moss/Welker difference.

 

You are assuming that adding a much better pass catcher to the team doesn't impact JG's targets at all (in fact, you are expecting a slight increase because he has a full offseason to train). I agree that most of Landry's targets should come from others and not JG, but to assume that Landry's presence does absolutely nothing to JG's target share is overly optimistic.

 

Again, you completely discredit Njoku having any sort of talent or upside whatsoever. Why?

 

Of course, this is the situation with the most change in the league. There are too many variables to account for to be able to make an accurate prediction.

 

All I am saying is that most of your assumptions tilt in JG's favor, and my guess is because you like the player enough that you want to justify being able to draft him at his price.

 

1: You aren't giving feedback, you're just picking apart my analysis.  There's a difference.  If you just want to pick apart my post, that's fine, it just seems incredibly trolly when I blatantly presented it as a wild guess.

 

2: I gave you my reasoning in the first post you quoted, I think TE/RB targets are heavily weighted toward scenario than playbook.  Yes, it's a gross over simplification.  You've already conceded this is one of the biggest offensive changes in the NFL, how detailed of a breakdown are you expecting.

 

3: Njoku has plenty of room to grow.  I just think it should come at the expense of Devalve's 58/33/395.  Njoku could go 132/68/817, and it wouldn't alter my TE percentages a fraction.  That would make him the highest targeted TE in the league, 6th in receptions, 4th in yards.  We just disagree with who's targets are getting sacrificed to enable him those numbers.  You think it's Josh Gordon apparently, I think it's Seth Devalve and Randall Telfer.

 

4: I don't know how much more clear I can be, if Landry leads the team in targets, it wouldn't shock me in the least.  The current difference I have for them, is about 1 target per game, and will most likely be dictated by game flow and/or which of them is open.  Not a predetermined game plan or fantasy analysis.

 

5: If you think it's optimistic... okay?  I'm optimistic.  Why is this a point of emphasis.  Fine, I'm optimistic.  Can we be done now?

 

6: Again, you're wrong.  Njoku's talent/upside can exist, I just don't think it has to hinder JG.

 

7: Well your assumptions are wrong.  My projections make him a mid end WR2 (16th last year) who's current ADP is 12th overall.  So if that's your idea of trying to justify is ADP, then I don't know what I can do to help you.  Meanwhile everyone else in the thread is screaming top 3 WR, yet I'm the one you want to argue with, and you don't understand why you aren't coming off as a potential troll?

 

Lastly, we can't possibly use one of the most historic seasons in National Football to use as our baseline.  Even if you insist, I fully admit that Landry can, could, might, possibly will, out target Josh Gordon this year.

 

Through the 3 years they played together, Welker averaged 1 Target, 2 catches, and 2 yards more than Moss on a per game basis.

Extrapolated to the full 3 seasons:

Moss: 423 targets, 250 catches, 3,765 yards

Welker: 476 targets, 362 catches, 3,848 yards

 

Yes... this is a realistic scenario (percentage wise, god knows someone will come in here saying I stated 2018 Browns = 2007 Pats) that can happen to Gordon and Landry.

 

33 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I personally don’t believe consistency over that stretch is the best evaluation of talent. It just means you’re not injury prone. Where did he finish relative to others on a year by year basis? 

 

Also, in PPR he has done solid but PPR isn’t as good of an evaluator of talent as standard reality wise. A catch for 0 yards is fairly worthless in reality but is equivalent to 1 point in PPR which is the format that Landry is very good in.

 

I don’t think he’s bad but he wanted to be paid like a top 5 WR and a lot of people seem to think he is one of the top WR in the game. He’s good but he’s not an elite WR.

You're too good of a poster to strawman someone like me.  I'm not measuring his talent, so I feel your response is moot.  If you want to tell me how talented Allen Robinson, Justin Blackmon, Sammy Watkins, or Alshon Jeffery could be if they ever stay on the field, and why they're more talented than Jarvis Landy, I'm not going to argue with you.  But if you aren't on the field, catching footballs, consistently... are you a better receiver than Landry?  Just because <athletic freak of your choice> is more talented than Landry, doesn't make them a better receiver.  Better Athletes, better talents, better receivers.  These can all be very different things.

 

I don't follow your 'finish relative to others on a year by year basis' question, as I posted his yearly results.  You'll need to be more specific.

 

Again, we're not evaluating his talent.  Scoring format only changes a single stat I posted.  He'll still be 3rd in catches, 4th in catch rate, 12th in reception yards, even in standard scoring leagues.  No matter what scoring system you use for fake football, he's still doing incredibly well in the categories that define what a receiver does on a football team.  Consistently, reliably, every year he's been in the league.

For what it's worth, he falls to 14th in fantasy points over the last 4 years in standard scoring.  Still higher than I bet many would have guessed.

10th if we narrow it to 3 years / exclude his rookie season.

 

Everyone WANTS to be paid like a top 5 player, you'd be an idiot not to.  NFL stands for Not For Long, it's all about leveraging your contract against the field, and maximizing your money.  Joe Flacco isn't a top 5 QB, but his contract came up at the right time, and he was able to demand that money.  If you want to argue he didn't deserved to be paid as the 5th highest WR in the league, I won't even disagree with you.  If you want to use his real world paycheck as the foundation of why he's over or under rated... then that's your choice, but I disagree.  Perhaps better stated, his paycheck never crossed my mind, when I made the claim that he's underrated.  It had no bearing on my standpoint.

 

I never said he's a top WR in the game.

I never said he's elite.

 

I said he's extremely talented and underrated [in fantasy and on these forums].  That's it.

Caveat: He's a Brown now, so at least people have a legit reason to be down on him this year.

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

1: You aren't giving feedback, you're just picking apart my analysis.  There's a difference.  If you just want to pick apart my post, that's fine, it just seems incredibly trolly when I blatantly presented it as a wild guess.

 

2: I gave you my reasoning in the first post you quoted, I think TE/RB targets are heavily weighted toward scenario than playbook.  Yes, it's a gross over simplification.  You've already conceded this is one of the biggest offensive changes in the NFL, how detailed of a breakdown are you expecting.

 

3: Njoku has plenty of room to grow.  I just think it should come at the expense of Devalve's 58/33/395.  Njoku could go 132/68/817, and it wouldn't alter my TE percentages a fraction.  That would make him the highest targeted TE in the league, 6th in receptions, 4th in yards.  We just disagree with who's targets are getting sacrificed to enable him those numbers.  You think it's Josh Gordon apparently, I think it's Seth Devalve and Randall Telfer.

 

4: I don't know how much more clear I can be, if Landry leads the team in targets, it wouldn't shock me in the least.  The current difference I have for them, is about 1 target per game, and will most likely be dictated by game flow and/or which of them is open.  Not a predetermined game plan or fantasy analysis.

 

5: If you think it's optimistic... okay?  I'm optimistic.  Why is this a point of emphasis.  Fine, I'm optimistic.  Can we be done now?

 

6: Again, you're wrong.  Njoku's talent/upside can exist, I just don't think it has to hinder JG.

 

7: Well your assumptions are wrong.  My projections make him a mid end WR2 (16th last year) who's current ADP is 12th overall.  So if that's your idea of trying to justify is ADP, then I don't know what I can do to help you.  Meanwhile everyone else in the thread is screaming top 3 WR, yet I'm the one you want to argue with, and you don't understand why you aren't coming off as a potential troll?

 

Lastly, we can't possibly use one of the most historic seasons in National Football to use as our baseline.  Even if you insist, I fully admit that Landry can, could, might, possibly will, out target Josh Gordon this year.

 

Through the 3 years they played together, Welker averaged 1 Target, 2 catches, and 2 yards more than Moss on a per game basis.

Extrapolated to the full 3 seasons:

Moss: 423 targets, 250 catches, 3,765 yards

Welker: 476 targets, 362 catches, 3,848 yards

 

Yes... this is a realistic scenario (percentage wise, god knows someone will come in here saying I stated 2018 Browns = 2007 Pats) that can happen to Gordon and Landry.

7

1. I pointed out the assumptions I felt were a little off, and I said all of the ones I didn't point out are reasonable. This is feedback. If I agreed with the logic and assumptions you used for your entire post, I would have said, "Great analysis, this is exactly how we should be thinking about JG/Landry." I don't know why you automatically assume I'm always trying to pick a fight with you. 

 

2. I didn't quite understand your exact point in your first post, mostly because your projections for this year contradict the point you tried to make. I was looking for clarity. You chose to ignore this contradiction, even after I pointed it out to you.

 

3. I never came close to saying I expect it to come from JG. Just like I said I expect Landry to take away mostly other people's targets, I would expect an Njoku breakout to come mostly at the expense of other Browns TEs. But, just like Landry again, to think that this would do NOTHING to JG's targets is optimistic towards JG.

 

4. "Wouldn't shock me" is the same thing as saying "it's possible, but not likely." It's the phrase everyone uses to allow something different than their expected scenario to happen, without admitting that an alternate scenario is equally likely (or at least close to equally likely). 

 

5. I keep purposely using the word "optimistic," because when your optimistic forecast still shows that JG is overvalued, it's a pretty clear sign that JG is one to avoid this year, if you believe your projections have any merit. Yet, you still paid his price in the Rotoworld mock league (It doesn't matter, sure, but you're drafting the same way you would if you were drafting a real league today). 

 

6. Already addressed.

 

7. Responding to "JG is a beast, top 3 WR no doubt" and "LF is a beast, stop with these fancy numbers" doesn't provide me or anyone else with any value. It does provide me value, and anyone else willing to listen, to analyze your projections and give you a second opinion on your thoughts. You should be thanking me for challenging you, not getting annoyed with me, if your goal is to become better at fantasy football. If your goal is popularity on this forum, then fine - just say so, and I'll be on my way. Btw, thank you for pushing me on that LF thread. We might have gotten a little too deep on some minute points, but it still helped me flesh out my thesis more and think about RB situations in a better way. You added value by trying to pick apart the parts of my argument that were either wrong or not fully supported enough.

 

Lastly, my point, in comparing the historic 2007 Pats season, is that:

1. Moss/Welker is similar enough to JG/Landry

2. This was the season most in Moss' favor, and yet it still wasn't as favorable as the split you are projecting for JG.

This suggests, again, optimism for JG's target share.

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17 minutes ago, OBJfor6 said:

1. I pointed out the assumptions I felt were a little off, and I said all of the ones I didn't point out are reasonable. This is feedback. If I agreed with the logic and assumptions you used for your entire post, I would have said, "Great analysis, this is exactly how we should be thinking about JG/Landry." I don't know why you automatically assume I'm always trying to pick a fight with you. 

 

2. I didn't quite understand your exact point in your first post, mostly because your projections for this year contradict the point you tried to make. I was looking for clarity. You chose to ignore this contradiction, even after I pointed it out to you.

 

3. I never came close to saying I expect it to come from JG. Just like I said I expect Landry to take away mostly other people's targets, I would expect an Njoku breakout to come mostly at the expense of other Browns TEs. But, just like Landry again, to think that this would do NOTHING to JG's targets is optimistic towards JG.

 

4. "Wouldn't shock me" is the same thing as saying "it's possible, but not likely." It's the phrase everyone uses to allow something different than their expected scenario to happen, without admitting that an alternate scenario is equally likely (or at least close to equally likely). 

 

5. I keep purposely using the word "optimistic," because when your optimistic forecast still shows that JG is overvalued, it's a pretty clear sign that JG is one to avoid this year, if you believe your projections have any merit. Yet, you still paid his price in the Rotoworld mock league (It doesn't matter, sure, but you're drafting the same way you would if you were drafting a real league today). 

 

6. Already addressed.

 

7. Responding to "JG is a beast, top 3 WR no doubt" and "LF is a beast, stop with these fancy numbers" doesn't provide me or anyone else with any value. It does provide me value, and anyone else willing to listen, to analyze your projections and give you a second opinion on your thoughts. You should be thanking me for challenging you, not getting annoyed with me, if your goal is to become better at fantasy football. If your goal is popularity on this forum, then fine - just say so, and I'll be on my way. Btw, thank you for pushing me on that LF thread. We might have gotten a little too deep on some minute points, but it still helped me flesh out my thesis more and think about RB situations in a better way. You added value by trying to pick apart the parts of my argument that were either wrong or not fully supported enough.

 

Lastly, my point, in comparing the historic 2007 Pats season, is that:

1. Moss/Welker is similar enough to JG/Landry

2. This was the season most in Moss' favor, and yet it still wasn't as favorable as the split you are projecting for JG.

This suggests, again, optimism for JG's target share.

 

1: Fine.

2: Glad I cleared it up. I didn't ignore it, I showed it both ways, take your pick which you prefer.

3: 26% is on the mid-high end of #1 WRs, so I understand it could be perceived as optimistic, and ultimately might end up being so.

4: It's not worth going into, but as I've stated multiple times, we're talking about a single target per game difference between these 2.  Many don't understand that 16 attempts is actually a net target total of 32 when it comes to WRs.  16 for JG vs 0 for Landry or 0 for JG and 16 for Landry means that the range of outcomes is really a deviation of 32 targets on the year.  On 500 attempts, this is results in a 6% variation between WRs, which is massive when we're measuring 26% vs 22% for the top 2 WRs of this team.

 

I tried to simplify this the best I could in the first post.  The difference I have between JG and Landry in target percentages, is actually only 1 throw from the QB a game.  So when I say it wouldn't shock me for that teeter-toter to fall Landry's way, I mean it.  It's not a caveat, it's not a cop out, it's not a safety net.  It's the reality of how statistical analysis works.  Very few people on this forum care to go this in depth with micro-analyzing a single pass attempt of a game, and how it effects WRs year end totals.

 

Landry legitimately has a coin flip to have more targets than Josh Gordon.  My gut instinct is that the coin comes up Gordon 60/40, but all it takes is a single coin flip to alter these percentages by 20%.  60/40 is a 20% advantage to one side.  50/50 is 0% advantage to either side.  1 Coin flip = 20% variance in the statistical outcome, even though it only accounts for 10% of the data pool.  That probably just made it worse but hopefully it conveys the point.

 

5: I drafted him in a free league (so no, NOT like I would in a real draft), 14 team, half point PPR, June draft as my 3rd WR.  As I specifically laid out in my first post, he was WR13 off the board but my projections have him around WR16 on years end (in last years abomination of WRs nonetheless).  So, yeah, over valued.  But he offers an immense upside that factors into his price.  He's a 'value' relative to what his price will be, by the time I have any meaningful drafts in August/September, because once camp reports come out, and the hype train gets rolling, followed by a single highlight reel play in the preseason, combined with the annual Hard Knocks upcharge, and Josh Gordon is going to be a 2nd round pick in 12 team leagues.  That's the reality of the game we play.  Depending on the auction/snake ratio of my leagues this year, this might be the only league where Josh Gordon is even mildly feasible.  ADPs today vs in 2 months will be night and day.  The purpose of this league, is to essentially begin the actual start of my fantasy research, as it forces me to start having opinions, and then trying to justify them, disprove them, and to do the same for every other pick that occurs, with multiple of the best posters on this forum.  

 

7: Uh... Thanks.

 

8: I disagree.  Patriots are infamous for their slot WR usage/dominance and Welker was the epitome/gold standard of a slot WR.  Using them/him to say 'see slot WRs dominate targets on offenses even with Moss on the field' seems disingenuous.  Having said that, I've already conceded that Landy has a good chance to lead the team in targets.  It's just not my personal expectation as of today.  Come week 3 of preseason, I could have turned a complete 360.  I am far less set in my opinions than people like to make me out to be.  I believe in the stats and what my eyes see.  We haven't gotten to see this team touch the field yet.  There's so much to learn about this team in the coming months.

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You both make valid arguments, now...

 

6f83467bd36b0cfcf5033672c0430a2d--guy-qu

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4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I personally don’t believe consistency over that stretch is the best evaluation of talent. It just means you’re not injury prone. Where did he finish relative to others on a year by year basis? 

 

Also, in PPR he has done solid but PPR isn’t as good of an evaluator of talent as standard reality wise. A catch for 0 yards is fairly worthless in reality but is equivalent to 1 point in PPR which is the format that Landry is very good in.

 

I don’t think he’s bad but he wanted to be paid like a top 5 WR and a lot of people seem to think he is one of the top WR in the game. He’s good but he’s not an elite WR.

Landry is an amazing talented receiver and doesn't get enough credit.  The Fins, and specifically Tannehill, are going to miss him more than they know.  In 4 years, totaling 570 targets he only has 12 drops... a rate of 2%.  The fins used to try to run plays specifically in practice to intentionally not include Landry, but he would always be open and Tannehill would find him.  It continued to translate into catches in the game.  Why? Because he was open and he made the catch.  The QB trusts him and eventually the Browns will see it too. 

 

And as much as you might not like him he would continue to produce top numbers in PPR.  

 

Quick comparison, you look at a guy like Edelman who, between 2013-2016 (4years) had 532 targets and 29 drops a rate of 5.5%.

 

Landry just doesn't get the credit he deserves.  And no one is saying he should be listed as "elite" - if he was he would be drafted in the first 2 rounds.  

Edited by Big Nate
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Thinking about this offense a bit more, I like both Landry and Gordon.  Both have tremendous potential, but I think FFC hits the nail on the head - it comes down to Tyrod.  I didn't realize Tyrod passed so little in BUF.   Before reading the numbers above I would have guessed the Browns would pass more than 500 times in a season, but that may end up being the reality.

 

The question for this offense isn't whether Landry or Gordon can put up numbers (they both have shown they can) but whether this offense can support 2 receivers and what will the target breakdown be?

 

As it stands now I will be targeting Gordon where I can but I assume he will probably go earlier than most in 2 of my leagues. My auction league might be the only hope I have of grabbing him and his cost may just end up being reasonable. 

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1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

 

1: Fine.

2: Glad I cleared it up. I didn't ignore it, I showed it both ways, take your pick which you prefer.

3: 26% is on the mid-high end of #1 WRs, so I understand it could be perceived as optimistic, and ultimately might end up being so.

4: It's not worth going into, but as I've stated multiple times, we're talking about a single target per game difference between these 2.  Many don't understand that 16 attempts is actually a net target total of 32 when it comes to WRs.  16 for JG vs 0 for Landry or 0 for JG and 16 for Landry means that the range of outcomes is really a deviation of 32 targets on the year.  On 500 attempts, this is results in a 6% variation between WRs, which is massive when we're measuring 26% vs 22% for the top 2 WRs of this team.

 

I tried to simplify this the best I could in the first post.  The difference I have between JG and Landry in target percentages, is actually only 1 throw from the QB a game.  So when I say it wouldn't shock me for that teeter-toter to fall Landry's way, I mean it.  It's not a caveat, it's not a cop out, it's not a safety net.  It's the reality of how statistical analysis works.  Very few people on this forum care to go this in depth with micro-analyzing a single pass attempt of a game, and how it effects WRs year end totals.

 

Landry legitimately has a coin flip to have more targets than Josh Gordon.  My gut instinct is that the coin comes up Gordon 60/40, but all it takes is a single coin flip to alter these percentages by 20%.  60/40 is a 20% advantage to one side.  50/50 is 0% advantage to either side.  1 Coin flip = 20% variance in the statistical outcome, even though it only accounts for 10% of the data pool.  That probably just made it worse but hopefully it conveys the point.

 

5: I drafted him in a free league (so no, NOT like I would in a real draft), 14 team, half point PPR, June draft as my 3rd WR.  As I specifically laid out in my first post, he was WR13 off the board but my projections have him around WR16 on years end (in last years abomination of WRs nonetheless).  So, yeah, over valued.  But he offers an immense upside that factors into his price.  He's a 'value' relative to what his price will be, by the time I have any meaningful drafts in August/September, because once camp reports come out, and the hype train gets rolling, followed by a single highlight reel play in the preseason, combined with the annual Hard Knocks upcharge, and Josh Gordon is going to be a 2nd round pick in 12 team leagues.  That's the reality of the game we play.  Depending on the auction/snake ratio of my leagues this year, this might be the only league where Josh Gordon is even mildly feasible.  ADPs today vs in 2 months will be night and day.  The purpose of this league, is to essentially begin the actual start of my fantasy research, as it forces me to start having opinions, and then trying to justify them, disprove them, and to do the same for every other pick that occurs, with multiple of the best posters on this forum.  

 

7: Uh... Thanks.

 

8: I disagree.  Patriots are infamous for their slot WR usage/dominance and Welker was the epitome/gold standard of a slot WR.  Using them/him to say 'see slot WRs dominate targets on offenses even with Moss on the field' seems disingenuous.  Having said that, I've already conceded that Landy has a good chance to lead the team in targets.  It's just not my personal expectation as of today.  Come week 3 of preseason, I could have turned a complete 360.  I am far less set in my opinions than people like to make me out to be.  I believe in the stats and what my eyes see.  We haven't gotten to see this team touch the field yet.  There's so much to learn about this team in the coming months.

2: This is what you ignored and still have yet to address, copy and pasted from a post I made above: "I also don't understand why you are taking the approximate proportion of RB/TE targets from last year (24%/20%) and keeping them constant for this year, even though you just said it's not the proportion you expect to be constant, it's the number of attempts you expect to be constant. You are projecting a significant decrease in pass attempts, yet you are using the RB/TE proportions from last year instead of the RB/TE attempts from last year. You are contradicting yourself here."

 

4: I really like the way you are thinking about it here (even though 60/40 isn't a mathematically accurate split based on your 6% variance projection, but I understand it's to illustrate the point). 

 

Food for thought: Can you think of any slot WR, comparable to or better than Landry, that did not lead his team in target share? The only other one I could come up with, other than Welker/Moss in 2007, is Golden Tate/Megatron in 2014 and 2015. Again, it took another legendary WR to command a higher target share than the good slot WR. 

 

If we really can't find a couple of examples that show a good slot WR being out-targeted by a #1 WR who isn't a legend, it doesn't bode well for a 26/22 split for JG. I will keep thinking about this, because I think it is important to find these examples (if they exist) to properly analyze this situation.

 

For me, it's this that makes me think anything more than a 50/50 split is a dangerous assumption, at least for the time being.

 

5: All fair, and agreed that if you REALLY want to invest in JG, it has to be now, before he becomes ridiculously overpriced.

 

8: Fair.

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10 minutes ago, OBJfor6 said:

2: This is what you ignored and still have yet to address, copy and pasted from a post I made above: "I also don't understand why you are taking the approximate proportion of RB/TE targets from last year (24%/20%) and keeping them constant for this year, even though you just said it's not the proportion you expect to be constant, it's the number of attempts you expect to be constant. You are projecting a significant decrease in pass attempts, yet you are using the RB/TE proportions from last year instead of the RB/TE attempts from last year. You are contradicting yourself here."

 

Image result for wrong gif

 

On 6/24/2018 at 10:46 AM, FFCollusion said:

Looks like roughly ~105 targets went to RBs last year, another 120 to TEs.

 

If Tyrod his 500 attempts this year, I think that would be a realistic goal or hope.

 

28% = 140 Targets

24% = 120 Targets

20% = 100 Targets

16% = 80 Targets

 

Personally, I don't think RB/TE targets are subject to total attempts, because they're more a product of game situation and design. (Zero proof to back this up)

 

Use the numbers above, directly from my first post, and show the class where you think I failed to proportion the RB/TE targets to 2018's expected attempts.

 

2017 RB Targets: 105

2017 TE Targets: 120

Tyrod Taylor assumed 2018 attempts: 500

 

Please show all math.

 

 

 

 

 

 

HAVING SAID THAT...

While the TE targets were accurate (122 to be exact) I severely screwed up the RB targets. (Well, I looked at catches(109) not targets(145))  Their total targets were actually 145.  145/500 = 29% to RBs.

So, the adjusted amounts would actually be:

RB: 29%

TE 24%

Leaving us with only 47% to the WRs.  Split them as you please, IDGAF anymore.

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

Image result for wrong gif

 

 

Use the numbers above, directly from my first post, and show the class where you think I failed to proportion the RB/TE targets to 2018's expected attempts.

 

2017 RB Targets: 105

2017 TE Targets: 120

Tyrod Taylor assumed 2018 attempts: 500

 

Please show all math.

 

 

 

 

 

 

HAVING SAID THAT...

While the TE targets were accurate (122 to be exact) I severely screwed up the RB targets. (Well, I looked at catches(109) not targets(145))  Their total targets were actually 145.  145/500 = 29% to RBs.

So, the adjusted amounts would actually be:

RB: 29%

TE 24%

Leaving us with only 47% to the WRs.  Split them as you please, IDGAF anymore.

I thought fantasy was supposed to be fun? My lawd!

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Just now, timexsocialclub said:

I thought fantasy was supposed to be fun? My lawd!

 

 

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Just now, timexsocialclub said:

I thought fantasy was supposed to be fun? My lawd!

I'll break this down from my own personal perspective. 

 

As a poker player, I spent my early years playing the game because of its escapism. I can go to the casino, make some new friends, have a few drinks, a few laughs, and maybe win a bit of money. 

 

As I became more serious and decided poker was something I wanted to do for a living I realized that one has to treat the game and experience differently. It takes next level focus, dedication, and smarts to win consistently. All of those things have a way of removing fun from the occasion. 

 

In my profession, that's the two groups people belong in. The recreational player has a good time, and pays for it. Sure, some players have a winning year here or there, but for the most part they are padding the finances for the true poker players over the long run. 

 

FF is no different. You can either play your 2-3 leagues per year, talk some trash, and see where you land, or you can become a grinder. Examining every player and situation throughout the summer. Watching every coaching change and what it might mean. Studying up, trying to get ahead of the curve. Not to mention hitting the WW every single week. Playing 20 leagues a year. Tons of daily lineups. If you really want to win, it's work. 

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1 hour ago, OBJfor6 said:

2: This is what you ignored and still have yet to address, copy and pasted from a post I made above: "I also don't understand why you are taking the approximate proportion of RB/TE targets from last year (24%/20%) and keeping them constant for this year, even though you just said it's not the proportion you expect to be constant, it's the number of attempts you expect to be constant. You are projecting a significant decrease in pass attempts, yet you are using the RB/TE proportions from last year instead of the RB/TE attempts from last year. You are contradicting yourself here."

 

4: I really like the way you are thinking about it here (even though 60/40 isn't a mathematically accurate split based on your 6% variance projection, but I understand it's to illustrate the point). 

 

Food for thought: Can you think of any slot WR, comparable to or better than Landry, that did not lead his team in target share? The only other one I could come up with, other than Welker/Moss in 2007, is Golden Tate/Megatron in 2014 and 2015. Again, it took another legendary WR to command a higher target share than the good slot WR. 

 

If we really can't find a couple of examples that show a good slot WR being out-targeted by a #1 WR who isn't a legend, it doesn't bode well for a 26/22 split for JG. I will keep thinking about this, because I think it is important to find these examples (if they exist) to properly analyze this situation.

 

For me, it's this that makes me think anything more than a 50/50 split is a dangerous assumption, at least for the time being.

 

5: All fair, and agreed that if you REALLY want to invest in JG, it has to be now, before he becomes ridiculously overpriced.

 

8: Fair.

I'll add to #5 you can get Gordon in the 5th round of draftmaster leagues on rtsports at the moment. I think that's going to creep towards preseason

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