DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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9 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

 

 

That's hilarious. I never saw this movie

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39 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

HAVING SAID THAT...

While the TE targets were accurate (122 to be exact) I severely screwed up the RB targets. (Well, I looked at catches(109) not targets(145))  Their total targets were actually 145.  145/500 = 29% to RBs.

So, the adjusted amounts would actually be:

RB: 29%

TE 24%

Leaving us with only 47% to the WRs.  Split them as you please, IDGAF anymore.

1

You finally acknowledge your error, by making the font as small as possible to draw attention away from it.

 

Considering your math was off on this point in more than one place, no wonder I was so confused with what you were doing. You ended up at 24% RBs/20% TEs (which are very close to last year's percentages), even though your math was 20% RBs/24% TEs, and it should have been 29% RBs/24% TEs.

 

Now that you're wrong, you are giving up altogether? I expect more from you. Take another stab at it when your head cools off.

 

P.S. Notice how he admits it's fun at the end of the video... I enjoy the intellectual rigor just as much as I enjoy watching football on Sundays (ok, maybe not quite as much - but I still enjoy it).

 

Edited by OBJfor6

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Yeah Jarvis landry is underrated lmao. Not everyone can turn 300 catches into 900 yards. And let’s pay this guy 16m or whatever a season. Any other wr in the league is cracking 1000 yards with his targets/ catches, but then again, he’s not a wr he’s a rb

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

That's hilarious. I never saw this movie

Fantastic movie you should really watch it

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2 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Yeah Jarvis landry is underrated lmao. Not everyone can turn 300 catches into 900 yards. And let’s pay this guy 16m or whatever a season. Any other wr in the league is cracking 1000 yards with his targets/ catches, but then again, he’s not a wr he’s a rb

I’m not sure where the 300/900 came from... but

2017: 112 receptions, 987 yards

2016: 94 receptions, 1136 yards

 

The import thing is the 12.1 - > 8.8 (with scrubs at QB)

 

What’s debatable is with the Browns did he get a QB upgrade...

 

What we do know is JL is a reliable WR (good hands) and is a TD threat (9TDs in 2017).  JL makes the Browns better and he’s going to soak up significant targets limiting Gordon’s upside.  How much is anyone’s guess...

 

Who’s not a WR? JL is clearly a good WR.  

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10 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I’m not sure where the 300/900 came from... but

2017: 112 receptions, 987 yards

2016: 94 receptions, 1136 yards

 

The import thing is the 12.1 - > 8.8 (with scrubs at QB)

 

What’s debatable is with the Browns did he get a QB upgrade...

 

What we do know is JL is a reliable WR (good hands) and is a TD threat (9TDs in 2017).  JL makes the Browns better and he’s going to soak up significant targets limiting Gordon’s upside.  How much is anyone’s guess...

 

Who’s not a WR? JL is clearly a good WR.  

Jarvis landry is the first wr in nfl history to have 100+ catches and not reach 1000 yards. Every other player to do this was a rb. So, IMO, he’s a rb

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I think we can all agree at Gordon’s ADP (which will probably continue to go up) is one of the top if not the biggest Boom or Bust in the draft. I think it comes down to if you are confident you can find some insurance in the later rounds then in case he doesn’t live up to the hype, in which case you should take the risk and you may be rewarded if 1300+ yards & 8+ TD’s. But if you don’t see much in the later rounds to rely on you should take some of the safer guys (Larry, Baldwin, etc.) 

 

and I personally don’t see Laundry as a hurting factor. If anything I think he will help get Gordon more 1 on 1’s. Like others have said Laundry had over 100 rec with less than 1000 yards, so I think Gordon is easily the better receiver of the 2.

Edited by Breesus

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12 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jarvis landry is the first wr in nfl history to have 100+ catches and not reach 1000 yards. Every other player to do this was a rb. So, IMO, he’s a rb

 

That is an interesting fact and a very good point.

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1 hour ago, Axe Elf said:

 

That is an interesting fact and a very good point.

Thanks I thought so too. Wish I could remember who said it, somebody I follow on Twitter that does FF articles. This is why I think that, barring a big shake up of Landry’s usage, Duke Johnson and Landry will cannablize each other much more than Landry will gordon 

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29 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Thanks I thought so too. Wish I could remember who said it, somebody I follow on Twitter that does FF articles. This is why I think that, barring a big shake up of Landry’s usage, Duke Johnson and Landry will cannablize each other much more than Landry will gordon 

 

Or Duke will Hyde.

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9 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jarvis landry is the first wr in nfl history to have 100+ catches and not reach 1000 yards. Every other player to do this was a rb. So, IMO, he’s a rb

Can you name a single RB who has ever had 1,136+ receiving yards (Landry 2016)?*

*I'll save you some time - that RB doesn't exist

 

All your stat really says is that Landry had 100+ catches and averaged less than 10 yards per catch. Larry Fitzgerald did this in 2016, he just happened to land right over the arbitrary 1,000-yard hump with 1,023 yards. Is Larry Fitzgerald a RB? 

 

8 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Thanks I thought so too. Wish I could remember who said it, somebody I follow on Twitter that does FF articles. This is why I think that, barring a big shake up of Landry’s usage, Duke Johnson and Landry will cannablize each other much more than Landry will gordon 

In that same 2016 Cardinals season, Larry Fitzgerald (slot WR) and David Johnson were the most targeted Cardinals players by a wide margin (accounted for a combined 42.5% of team targets). This suggests that an elite slot WR and an elite pass-catching back can coexist in the same offense, without necessarily cannibalizing each other. Why can't a lesser slot WR and a lesser pass-catching back coexist?

 

 

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10 minutes ago, OBJfor6 said:

Can you name a single RB who has ever had 1,136+ receiving yards (Landry 2016)?*

*I'll save you some time - that RB doesn't exist

 

All your stat really says is that Landry had 100+ catches and averaged less than 10 yards per catch. Larry Fitzgerald did this in 2016, he just happened to land right over the arbitrary 1,000-yard hump with 1,023 yards. Is Larry Fitzgerald a RB? 

 

In that same 2016 Cardinals season, Larry Fitzgerald (slot WR) and David Johnson were the most targeted Cardinals players by a wide margin (accounted for a combined 42.5% of team targets). This suggests that an elite slot WR and an elite pass-catching back can coexist in the same offense, without necessarily cannibalizing each other. Why can't a lesser slot WR and a lesser pass-catching back coexist?

 

 

ok are you an LSU or dolphins fan or something? comparing landry to fitz? lol

 

and by cannibalize I'm not referring to target share or saying they can't co exist. Im talking about the type of targets they get and how they're used.

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Looking at Fantasy Football Calculator, I was surprised to see Gordon's standard deviation as low as it was (29th overall; SD of 3.8). I definitely would have guessed something higher due to his history, risks, and how so many people view him as both an athlete and fantasy commodity. I would guess a lot of this has to do with most data consisting of only mock drafts, maybe? I think Gordon will be one of those guys you can often snag a round later than ADP. To me, it always seems as if there is only one guy in each league that is a Gordon Believer. If you have history with your league and opponents, you probably know whether or not he will be highly targeted in drafts around his ADP. 

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15 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

ok are you an LSU or dolphins fan or something? comparing landry to fitz? lol

 

and by cannibalize I'm not referring to target share or saying they can't co exist. Im talking about the type of targets they get and how they're used.

Was Landry's 2017 season not similar to Larry Fitzgerald's 2016 season? I don't care what your preconceived notions of players are, their numbers were very similar. You can't think Fitz was Larry Legend in 2016 and Jarvis Landry was crappy WR/RB in 2017, unless you are an irrational person. Obviously Landry doesn't hold a candle to Fitz in his prime, but I'm not comparing him to prime Larry, or to Larry's career as a whole (this is where your mind jumped to). I'm comparing him to current Larry, and Landry's numbers over the last 3 years are very similar to Larry's. 

 

Since it matters to you, no, I am neither of those things. I was among the Landry haters, even after his career year in 2016 last offseason, but I have realized the error in my thinking. Go to the previous page and read FFC's commentary with Gohawks - I think this is the proper way to think about Jarvis Landry.

 

To your second point, I have no idea what you're trying to say. If they can both have high target shares, and they can both coexist together, how can they cannibalize each other? You're going to have to expand a lot on this and explain if you want to have a chance at making any sense.

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11 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jarvis landry is the first wr in nfl history to have 100+ catches and not reach 1000 yards. Every other player to do this was a rb. So, IMO, he’s a rb

He's had 2 1000+ yard seasons.  And you are picking on the fact that he was 13 yards short the second time.

 

Moreover, in PPR as stated in this thread he has produced for his ADP (or bettered it) each year.  

 

Even in standard scoring last year, (where as you say he didn't even reach 1000 yards) he was still 14th WR on the season. On average he was probably the 30th WR off the board in standard last year, and finished at 14th.

 

Anyways, I'm done here debating this. But I will say that Gordon is going to get a lot of attention. If you leave Gordon one on one he's going to make plays and has a chance to bust a big one for a TD.

 

This is going to leave the underrated Landry running shorter routes and he's going to be open, like he always is.  I could see him getting 100+ targets again this year if the QB starts to realize he is always open.

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9 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Thanks I thought so too. Wish I could remember who said it, somebody I follow on Twitter that does FF articles. This is why I think that, barring a big shake up of Landry’s usage, Duke Johnson and Landry will cannablize each other much more than Landry will gordon 

Does it really matter if he had less than 1000 yards when he still produced for fantasy football purposes? Is that not why we pick players? He out produced his ADP last year.

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11 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jarvis landry is the first wr in nfl history to have 100+ catches and not reach 1000 yards. Every other player to do this was a rb. So, IMO, he’s a rb

What are you smoking?  A RB?

 

Among his more impressive stats: (from ESPN)

  • Landry's 400 receptions are the most by any player in his first four seasons in NFL history; Anquan Boldin is second with 342. The only players with more receptions since he entered the league are Brown and Jones.

  • He has been to three Pro Bowls, and he led the NFL with 112 receptions in 2017.

  • Last season he was the only player in the NFL with at least five catches in all 16 games.

  • ProFootballFocus.com reports he has broken 76 tackles after the catch in his career and has just 21 drops.

  • He is one of only 10 receivers since 2014 not to miss a regular-season game, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

  • He has caught 71 percent of passes thrown to him in his career, eighth best in the NFL, per ESPN Stats & Info.

  • He's better in the red zone; there, he's fifth best in the NFL, catching 70.8 percent of passes thrown to him, per ESPN Stats & Info.

  • ProFootballFocus.com reports that quarterbacks had a 121.1 passer rating throwing to Landry against press coverage the past two seasons, fifth best in the league. His yards after catch (421) were best in the league, per PFF.

  • When lined up in the slot, he has been one of the best in the league. PFF reports that in the past two years Landry had 172 targets from the slot and caught 77.3 percent of them. He ranked first in yards (1,473) and tied for fifth in touchdowns (nine).

 

I’m not saying Landry is the best WR in the league, but he’s in the running for top10.  Nit picking his stats doesn’t change that.  Gordon should put up good numbers in 2018, but the Browns offense isn’t going to support a AB + Juju combo.  Landry’s presence isn’t going to help Gordon’s fantasy numbers.  There considerable risk in taking Gordon early...

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45 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

Does it really matter if he had less than 1000 yards when he still produced for fantasy football purposes? Is that not why we pick players? He out produced his ADP last year.

no not really. But I'm not talking about Jarvis in fantasy I'm talking about jarvis irl and how it affects gordon 

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having 112 catches and <1000 for a wr is crazy bad lol. Either you want to argue that he can't run/ get open on deep routes or he just isn't a good YAC threat. Whatever narrative you all want to justify the best WR ever, Man amongst boys, THE JARVIS LANDRY  having the least efficient season ever for a wr ever i don't really care. 

 

Bringing up receptions for a guy who runs 2 yard routes is stupid. I could catch screen passes all day in the nfl too and get tackled immediately 

 

^ (patiently awaiting someone replying with "he doesn't get tackled immediately! Heres a video of him turning a screen into 18 yards!" or "You suck! you couldn't catch anything except a cold!" )

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2 hours ago, OBJfor6 said:

Can you name a single RB who has ever had 1,136+ receiving yards (Landry 2016)?*

*I'll save you some time - that RB doesn't exist

Bobby Mitchell.  1962.  I believe it was a Ty Montgomery technicality.

 

25 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

having 112 catches and <1000 for a wr is crazy bad lol. Either you want to argue that he can't run/ get open on deep routes or he just isn't a good YAC threat. 

It's not bad, it's by design.  Like you said, if he's targeted at the 2 yard line, that's a play design, an offensive philosophy.  How does his teams decision of what plays they call and routes they design, dictate his skill?  Every year I hear peoples delusions that Devante Parker is going to breakout... what good did his routes do him for the Dolphins or even your fantasy team?  None.  Landry has destroyed him in fantasy points (and every other stat that matters, real and fake football) every single year, no matter what format you play.  You can make the claim these plays are designed specifically for him because of his short comings, or you could argue they're designed that way because of the QB's shortcomings.  Maybe they have nothing to do with short comings, and are just how Miami likes to run their team, and because it worked, they stuck with it.

 

Landry(2,191) has more YAC than Antonio Brown(2,077) in the past four years, in which AB has finished 1st, 1st, 1st, and 2nd(14 games).  So...

 

It just strikes me as odd.  I don't ever recall Welker or Edelman getting this type of resistance.  Maybe if Jarvis was on the Pats people would respect him more?  Jarvis is a specialist.  If he could 'do it all' then he'd be in the Elite debate, but he can't (or least wasn't allowed to with MIA/hasn't shown us yet) and that's why no one is calling him elite.  There's only 11 receivers in the league with more reception yards than Landry since he entered the league.  At some point, it doesn't matter where you catch it, as long as you consistently move the ball down the field.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Bobby Mitchell.  1962.  I believe it was a Ty Montgomery technicality.

 

After looking at this, I actually got interested at looking into old football positions and what they all meant - their designations and formations were interesting, to say the least.

 

Ty Mont played most of his snaps as a RB and had more carries than catches. Bobby Mitchell had 72 catches and 1 carry. After having more carries than catches his first four years on the Browns, he was traded to the Redskins for his 1962 season. From Wikipedia, "Bill McPeak, in his first year as head coach, immediately announced Mitchell would become a flanker. In his first game in Washington, he ran back a 92-yard kickoff return against the Dallas Cowboys.[2] Mitchell led the league with eleven touchdowns, 72 catches, and 1384 yards, and was selected to the Pro Bowl.[5]"

 

A flanker was a wide receiver similar to WRs who play the Z position in today's game.

 

In general, pro-football reference (and all related sites for other sports) lists players differently, for whatever reason. For example, basketball-reference has listed LeBron as a SG, SF, and PF in the past - even though we all know he is a SF, he calls himself a SF and only a SF, and most other sites call him a SF. Seems pretty clear the "RH" designation pro-football reference gives Bobby Mitchell is incorrect.

 

I applaud the effort, though.

 

2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

It's not bad, it's by design.  Like you said, if he's targeted at the 2 yard line, that's a play design, an offensive philosophy.  How does his teams decision of what plays they call and routes they design, dictate his skill?  Every year I hear peoples delusions that Devante Parker is going to breakout... what good did his routes do him for the Dolphins or even your fantasy team?  None.  Landry has destroyed him in fantasy points (and every other stat that matters, real and fake football) every single year, no matter what format you play.  You can make the claim these plays are designed specifically for him because of his short comings, or you could argue they're designed that way because of the QB's shortcomings.  Maybe they have nothing to do with short comings, and are just how Miami likes to run their team, and because it worked, they stuck with it.

 

Landry(2,191) has more YAC than Antonio Brown(2,077) in the past four years, in which AB has finished 1st, 1st, 1st, and 2nd(14 games).  So...

 

It just strikes me as odd.  I don't ever recall Welker or Edelman getting this type of resistance.  Maybe if Jarvis was on the Pats people would respect him more?  Jarvis is a specialist.  If he could 'do it all' then he'd be in the Elite debate, but he can't (or least wasn't allowed to with MIA/hasn't shown us yet) and that's why no one is calling him elite.  There's only 11 receivers in the league with more reception yards than Landry since he entered the league.  At some point, it doesn't matter where you catch it, as long as you consistently move the ball down the field.

It's not just Pats slot WRs that get respect though. No one questions Golden Tate (9.0 yards per catch in 2015) or old Larry (9.6 yards per catch in 2016) either.

In the past 3 seasons, here is how their yards per catch stack up against each other:

Landry: 10.37

Fitz: 10.44

Tate: 10.60, and he didn't even play primarily in the slot in 2016.

 

It really is bizarre how the Landry narrative caught fire. Heck, I admitted earlier to believing it - I didn't even realize how stupid it was until probably a month or two ago. I think it's because I played only in standard leagues back in 2014 (Landry's rookie year), and after looking at his numbers that year, I didn't see how he would ever be a standard fantasy asset given his need for volume, so I wrote him off and never challenged myself to reconsider my bias against him, until recently.

 

My best guess is that this happened to many people, but most people won't ever challenge their initial beliefs in the absence of undeniable evidence.

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4 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

having 112 catches and <1000 for a wr is crazy bad lol. Either you want to argue that he can't run/ get open on deep routes or he just isn't a good YAC threat. Whatever narrative you all want to justify the best WR ever, Man amongst boys, THE JARVIS LANDRY  having the least efficient season ever for a wr ever i don't really care. 

 

Bringing up receptions for a guy who runs 2 yard routes is stupid. I could catch screen passes all day in the nfl too and get tackled immediately 

 

^ (patiently awaiting someone replying with "he doesn't get tackled immediately! Heres a video of him turning a screen into 18 yards!" or "You suck! you couldn't catch anything except a cold!" )

 

Do you really think this? I mean, have you watched a Dolphins game? Many of Landry’s receptions come from behind the LOS, or within a couple of yards. The team is more that happy to get 5 or 6 yards on these plays. His low yardage totals are by design. They get him the ball and let him work because he is a god after the catch. This man is extremely difficult to take down 1 on 1 in the open field. He doesn’t have that top flight speed so you don’t see him hit many home runs, but he is great at churning out a few extra yards. He’s also a great route runner with tremendous hands. On top of all that, he can lay down a nasty block. I don’t know what else you are looking for with a slot receiver. 

 

Sorry, I know this isn’t the Landry thread, but I couldn’t resist. 

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17 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Jarvis landry is the first wr in nfl history to have 100+ catches and not reach 1000 yards. Every other player to do this was a rb. So, IMO, he’s a rb

 

Also has the most catches by any WR in NFL history through 4 seasons.

Edited by dmb3684
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