DerrickHenrysCleats

Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook

tonycpsu

[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Also has the most catches by any WR in NFL history through 4 seasons.

Some people don’t like facts to interfere with their preconceived notions.

 

What can you do...

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Landry is good and JOSH GORDON is GREAT

 

Correct.

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Landry is good and JOSH GORDON is GREAT

 

One may emerge to be a superior fantasy player this season, possibly more dependent on offense design. Interesting, two separate skill sets, now both on the same offense.

 

Or, both may emerge and demonstrate dominance, each with their separate skill sets, ushering a new era in Cleveland.

 

Or, neither will emerge, neither having any relevance, as they are Browns, and exceptional pieces do not necessarily a team make. Hello Cleveland!

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On 6/25/2018 at 11:41 AM, FFCollusion said:

You're too good of a poster to strawman someone like me.  I'm not measuring his talent, so I feel your response is moot.  If you want to tell me how talented Allen Robinson, Justin Blackmon, Sammy Watkins, or Alshon Jeffery could be if they ever stay on the field, and why they're more talented than Jarvis Landy, I'm not going to argue with you.  But if you aren't on the field, catching footballs, consistently... are you a better receiver than Landry?  Just because <athletic freak of your choice> is more talented than Landry, doesn't make them a better receiver.  Better Athletes, better talents, better receivers.  These can all be very different things.

 

I don't follow your 'finish relative to others on a year by year basis' question, as I posted his yearly results.  You'll need to be more specific.

 

Again, we're not evaluating his talent.  Scoring format only changes a single stat I posted.  He'll still be 3rd in catches, 4th in catch rate, 12th in reception yards, even in standard scoring leagues.  No matter what scoring system you use for fake football, he's still doing incredibly well in the categories that define what a receiver does on a football team.  Consistently, reliably, every year he's been in the league.

For what it's worth, he falls to 14th in fantasy points over the last 4 years in standard scoring.  Still higher than I bet many would have guessed.

10th if we narrow it to 3 years / exclude his rookie season.

 

Everyone WANTS to be paid like a top 5 player, you'd be an idiot not to.  NFL stands for Not For Long, it's all about leveraging your contract against the field, and maximizing your money.  Joe Flacco isn't a top 5 QB, but his contract came up at the right time, and he was able to demand that money.  If you want to argue he didn't deserved to be paid as the 5th highest WR in the league, I won't even disagree with you.  If you want to use his real world paycheck as the foundation of why he's over or under rated... then that's your choice, but I disagree.  Perhaps better stated, his paycheck never crossed my mind, when I made the claim that he's underrated.  It had no bearing on my standpoint.

 

I never said he's a top WR in the game.

I never said he's elite.

 

I said he's extremely talented and underrated [in fantasy and on these forums].  That's it.

Caveat: He's a Brown now, so at least people have a legit reason to be down on him this year.

I'm evaluating him from a talent perspective. This is the Josh Gordon thread and his talent specifically will influence Gordon this year. The reason Landry is even being discussed in this thread is due to how how much he will impact Gordon. My entire argument is centered around me believing he is not a great REAL LIFE wR. So there may be a disconnect there between us. My reasoning for mentioning consistency is that as long as you stay healthy and are decent you will be one of the better fantasy players often times due to the nature of the sport. Thus, saying "over 3 years" does not speak to the overall ability of a player. Rather, it often speaks to their ability to stay healthy.

 

Again, I am evaluating talent because I am evaluating Josh Gordon. Landry did not have any real competition for receptions and despite what he says, had the perfect QB fit throwing to him yet he still couldn't produce what you would expect from a real life standpoint. For the poster that said he is a TD threat, that is beyond laughable. Go look at his stats and try to tell me last season wasn't an outlier in that department. Even with last season, he is still at 5.5 TDs for his career. Again, without any real threats to him in his offense. Hardly setting the world on fire.

 

As for why i state he isn't a great real life WR. Yes, I agree he is solid in fantasy. However, fantasy does not always translate to reality. Especially in PPR. Receptions keep getting thrown around here yet that is one of the most useless stats in the game. No one gives a damn about your catch for 0 yards. 

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27 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I'm evaluating him from a talent perspective. This is the Josh Gordon thread and his talent specifically will influence Gordon this year. The reason Landry is even being discussed in this thread is due to how how much he will impact Gordon. My entire argument is centered around me believing he is not a great REAL LIFE wR. So there may be a disconnect there between us. My reasoning for mentioning consistency is that as long as you stay healthy and are decent you will be one of the better fantasy players often times due to the nature of the sport. Thus, saying "over 3 years" does not speak to the overall ability of a player. Rather, it often speaks to their ability to stay healthy.

 

Again, I am evaluating talent because I am evaluating Josh Gordon. Landry did not have any real competition for receptions and despite what he says, had the perfect QB fit throwing to him yet he still couldn't produce what you would expect from a real life standpoint. For the poster that said he is a TD threat, that is beyond laughable. Go look at his stats and try to tell me last season wasn't an outlier in that department. Even with last season, he is still at 5.5 TDs for his career. Again, without any real threats to him in his offense. Hardly setting the world on fire.

 

As for why i state he isn't a great real life WR. Yes, I agree he is solid in fantasy. However, fantasy does not always translate to reality. Especially in PPR. Receptions keep getting thrown around here yet that is one of the most useless stats in the game. No one gives a damn about your catch for 0 yards. 

If you are healthy and decent you are a better WR? I mean who can argue that. So why doesn't that make landry a top WR? What more do you want?

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9 hours ago, Gohawks said:

My reasoning for mentioning consistency is that as long as you stay healthy and are decent you will be one of the better fantasy players often times due to the nature of the sport.

 

I find this reasoning problematic. Health is important, but health has nothing to do with talent and being "one of the better fantasy players." True, health will prompt opportunity, but without talent this opportunity is hamstrung. An example might be Torrey Smith, who in seven years has only missed four games, and he has failed to produce significantly and regularly. A better comparison here might be Ryan Grant, who came into the NFL the same year as Landry (2014), and like Landry has not missed any games. And, Grant played on an offense ripe with opportunity due to injury (e.g. DJax missing 9 games, Reed missing 19 games, etc.) Yet, Landry's rookie season just about equals Grant's four-year career.

 

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Once August comes I wonder what Josh Gordon's value will be in auction leagues and what is a reasonable amount to spend on him.  If he has any sort of decent preseason I think he's going to climb.

 

Fantasypros, standard scoring I think he's already sitting at $23.... higher than I thought he might be.

Edited by Big Nate

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12 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

If you are healthy and decent you are a better WR? I mean who can argue that. So why doesn't that make landry a top WR? What more do you want?

Again, this isn't a matter of Landry and his relevance to fantasy. This is a matter of his influence on Gordon. If this was Jeffery the argument would be something along the lines of "He will take away from Gordon as he is another big body. However, he is injury prone so eventually Gordon should feast." Now, I hate any argument that requires an injury for a player to do well but it would be something along those lines. 

 

Now since Landry is on a new team we have to ask why he did good. It's a relevant question due to the new circumstance. I am a believer that his huge volume was in large part due to having a check down artist and no real competition. Sure, he doesn't get injured but that doesn't factor into my evaluation of his impact on Gordon or his overall talent as a WR. If people here want to discuss how Landry will do in fantasy you can go do that in his thread. I'm here to discuss how he will impact Gordons production. I've already stated before he will complement him more than anything. 

 

For the record, Landry is easily an above average WR. However, the way people are discussing him and Gordon it seems like some think he is elite. Not the case. 

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4 hours ago, Big Nate said:

Once August comes I wonder what Josh Gordon's value will be in auction leagues and what is a reasonable amount to spend on him.  If he has any sort of decent preseason I think he's going to climb.

 

Fantasypros, standard scoring I think he's already sitting at $23.... higher than I thought he might be.

 

Yeah, you can expect low $20s for now.  After his first preseason TD, I would expect at least a 50% boost to the low $30s.

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The problem of Josh gordon in an auction format is there is a very strong opinion on him in terms of those who like him and those who hate him because he has been a very polarizing player in the real world and in fantasy. 

So if you are in a league where everyone knows who owned him or avoided him in the past then it can get ugly in terms of price and pain because there may be an artificial inflation in his price as a strategy to get someone to overpay. 

You have to be disciplined when bidding for josh gordon in auction format.  

I'm not paying  $1 more than $199 out of a $200 auction budget for him because i need to draft a good kicker:D

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Is no one else concerned that he has Tyrod Taylor throwing the football to him at least for the start of the season? I understand he's put up great numbers with bad QBs before, but Taylor hasn't cracked 3,100 yards in any season. I know part of that is the Bills scheme and Shady McCoy being so good, but the Browns seem committed to the ground game as well (Chubb, Hyde). I just don't see how this offense can support enough volume. Landry, Duke, and Coleman also will get touches, and Njoku could steal red zone targets. I like the talent, I'm just more skeptical about the opportunities than many on this thread.

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3 minutes ago, Saucy said:

Is no one else concerned that he has Tyrod Taylor throwing the football to him at least for the start of the season? I understand he's put up great numbers with bad QBs before, but Taylor hasn't cracked 3,100 yards in any season. I know part of that is the Bills scheme and Shady McCoy being so good, but the Browns seem committed to the ground game as well (Chubb, Hyde). I just don't see how this offense can support enough volume. Landry, Duke, and Coleman also will get touches, and Njoku could steal red zone targets. I like the talent, I'm just more skeptical about the opportunities than many on this thread.

You question Tyrod's lack of historical passing yard data, and then kind of answer your own question. Is Tyrod better/worse than the bums Gordon put up 1600 yards with? 

 

Is Tyrod's lack of huge yardage totals a product of the Buff system? Probably. Can you make the last Bills QB to throw for 4000 yards? I can't. 

 

Best offensive weapon Tyrod ever threw to was a rookie Sammy Watkins. That had a very nice start to it until Sammy couldn't stay on the field. 

 

You may be right about the opportunities. There's no way Gordon has the obscene target amount he had in 2013. He could easily be playing in a more efficient and wide open offense though, and he could have a higher catch rate easily. 

 

Ill make the comparison to Odell. Both guys are inthe prime of their careers, and are among the most gifted players at the position. Eli has never been an amazing QB. Sure, he's had some nice seasons, but he's never been a top 5 talent in the league by any means. So, Odell has a similar meh QB, has to fight with Shep and Engram for targets, and now the NYG will almost certainly feature the run more than they have in a decade. Are those all reasons to move Odell down in rankings? If you're not downgrading Odell, you shouldn't be downgrading Gordon either. 

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5 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Ill make the comparison to Odell. Both guys are inthe prime of their careers, and are among the most gifted players at the position. Eli has never been an amazing QB. Sure, he's had some nice seasons, but he's never been a top 5 talent in the league by any means. So, Odell has a similar meh QB, has to fight with Shep and Engram for targets, and now the NYG will almost certainly feature the run more than they have in a decade. Are those all reasons to move Odell down in rankings? If you're not downgrading Odell, you shouldn't be downgrading Gordon either. 

 

Except Odell had about 160 targets in 2015 and 2016. He's Eli's go to, at some points to a fault. I don't see Tyrod Taylor force feeding one guy. He's a smart QB who takes care of the ball. Part of Odell's success is due to the fact that Eli slings it his direction and says a prayer. Taylor is not that wild with the football. Josh Gordon won't be getting targets just because he's Josh Gordon. 

Edited by Saucy

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5 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

Except Odell had about 160 targets in 2015 and 2016. He's Eli's go to, at some points to a fault. I don't see Tyrod Taylor force feeding one guy. He's a smart QB who takes care of the ball. Part of Odell's success is due to the fact that Eli slings it his direction and says a prayer. Taylor is not that wild with the football. Josh Gordon won't be getting targets just because he's Josh Gordon. 

Well, it's not 2015 or 2016 anymore. Shep and Engram are fresh faces who can both play. Barkley is there now too, and he's going to get the ball more than any NYG RB in Odell's time. 

 

You can't merely dismiss Gordon on the basis that Tyrod won't look his way because of who he is. In fact, Tyrod has NEVER played with a dude like this before. Another note, Tyrod has never had the #1 draft pick QB sitting behind him before either. He might need to sling it a bit more if he wants his job all year. 

 

If im Tyrod, I'm forcing it to Gordon constantly and letting him make me look good. None of the other WRs have that ability. 

 

You doubters are all going to feel silly very early in the season. 

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3 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

You doubters are all going to feel silly very early in the season. 

 

It's entirely possible. It has happened before.

Edited by Saucy

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48 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The problem of Josh gordon in an auction format is there is a very strong opinion on him in terms of those who like him and those who hate him because he has been a very polarizing player in the real world and in fantasy. 

So if you are in a league where everyone knows who owned him or avoided him in the past then it can get ugly in terms of price and pain because there may be an artificial inflation in his price as a strategy to get someone to overpay. 

You have to be disciplined when bidding for josh gordon in auction format.  

I'm not paying  $1 more than $199 out of a $200 auction budget for him because i need to draft a good kicker:D

For my league, I posted more Gordon gifs in the group chat last season than times he’s hit the blunt. Hopefully it’s conditioned them to hate him. 

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Got him in a keeper league and very excited to ride him to a championship. There's no reason if he stays on the field he shouldn't be a top 5 guy and has a very reasonable shot at WR1.

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1 minute ago, timexsocialclub said:

There's no reason if he stays on the field he shouldn't be a top 5 guy

 

Axually there are a lot of reasons for that; just none that the nuthuggers are willing to acknowledge.

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7 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Axually there are a lot of reasons for that; just none that the nuthuggers are willing to acknowledge.

I agree that there's plenty of reasons why Gordon won't be top 5...

 

However, it's very hard for me to say that he doesn't have top 5 upside. It's there. We've seen it. 

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20 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

However, it's very hard for me to say that he doesn't have top 5 upside. It's there. We've seen it. 

 

If he was the only guy with top 5 upside at his ADP, then sure.  But with safer bets like Doug Baldwin and Larry Fitzgerald being drafted on either side of him, I don't see the point in taking the bigger risk--it's not like Gordon's ceiling can be much higher than those two, but his floor is unconscionably lower.

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9 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

If he was the only guy with top 5 upside at his ADP, then sure.  But with safer bets like Doug Baldwin and Larry Fitzgerald being drafted on either side of him, I don't see the point in taking the bigger risk--it's not like Gordon's ceiling can be much higher than those two, but his floor is unconscionably lower.

It's hard for me to argue against Doug and Fitz. 2 of my favorite WRs who can be had at a discount this year. I take both of them over Gordon, but not by much. 

 

I don't see Doug as having top 5 upside though. I think he's firmly (and safely) right in the 8-12 range. 

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12 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I don't see Doug as having top 5 upside though. I think he's firmly (and safely) right in the 8-12 range. 

 

What he loses in 3-4 spots of upside he more than makes up for in having 20-30 spots less downside.

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14 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

What he loses in 3-4 spots of upside he more than makes up for in having 20-30 spots less downside.

I agree, which is why I rank Doug one spot higher. 

 

However, a common FF strategy is to hit the home run. You can make a bunch of safe picks, but there are a few every draft that are riskier than others, but could very well win you your league. 

 

Watson is one of those guys, and I know you're a fan. It's the same thinking with Gordon. You can either be the guy who takes the big swing, or you can play it safe. 

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