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Josh Gordon 2018 Outlook


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[We are re-opening this thread on a provisional basis, with an increased focus on keeping the discussion on topic and manageable.  This means that if your comment is not 100% germane to Josh Gordon's fantasy outlook, it is subject to removal, and you will be subject to warning and/or suspension of posting privileges.  There will be no courtesy warnings.  Please contribute to a meaningful fantasy football discussion, or take your commentary elsewhere.]

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7 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

3 good RBs, a possible breakout TE, Landry, Coleman and Callaway. Seems like a lot more talent than in 2013.

 

Definitely not "a lot" more talent than 2013. 

 

A POSSIBLE breakout at TE - how often does a rookie breakout at TE?

Landry - debatable, but ok.

Coleman - has done nothing two years in. 

Callaway - Odd man out. Fighting for snaps.

 

Bess, Benjamin and Little all put up at least 500+ yards the year Gordon went bonkers. Those players and those numbers are better than anything Callaway has done considering he hasn't played a single NFL snap, and more than Coleman has had in any season so far. To say that Gordon won't succeed because of the "upgraded" supporting cast is inaccurate imo. 

 

What you should've said is "Gordon may not succeed because he doesn't have Norv Turner calling the plays". Then you would've had a yourself a debatable defense. 

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4 minutes ago, ss3walkman said:

 

Definitely not "a lot" more talent than 2013. 

 

A POSSIBLE breakout at TE - how often does a rookie breakout at TE?

Landry - debatable, but ok.

Coleman - has done nothing two years in. 

Callaway - Odd man out. Fighting for snaps.

David Njoku isn't a rookie...

 

When Antonio Callaway is fighting for snaps you know you have a good corp.

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43 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

David Njoku isn't a rookie...

 

When Antonio Callaway is fighting for snaps you know you have a good corp.

I'm not as high on him as others. He's a fourth rounder. Talented, but he's not in the way of Gordon. Neither is Njoku. 

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54 minutes ago, ss3walkman said:

 

Definitely not "a lot" more talent than 2013. 

 

A POSSIBLE breakout at TE - how often does a rookie breakout at TE?

Landry - debatable, but ok.

Coleman - has done nothing two years in. 

Callaway - Odd man out. Fighting for snaps.

 

Bess, Benjamin and Little all put up at least 500+ yards the year Gordon went bonkers. Those players and those numbers are better than anything Callaway has done considering he hasn't played a single NFL snap, and more than Coleman has had in any season so far. To say that Gordon won't succeed because of the "upgraded" supporting cast is inaccurate imo. 

 

What you should've said is "Gordon may not succeed because he doesn't have Norv Turner calling the plays". Then you would've had a yourself a debatable defense. 

 

Landry is a lot better than all those guys.

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21 minutes ago, ss3walkman said:

I'm not as high on him as others. He's a fourth rounder. Talented, but he's not in the way of Gordon. Neither is Njoku. 

He was a 4th rounder because he has attitude problems and failed a drug test already before his career even started.

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The reports I'm reading are saying that Gordon is dealing with anxiety issues, so I'm not sure why there's pages of arguments about the pros and cons of pot.  

 

From a real world / football perspective I'm glad that whatever Gordon is dealing with right now (whether that be anxiety or substance abuse or whatever), I'm glad that he's dealing with it the right way.  That bodes the best for his long term health and recovery.

 

That being said, this is just another question mark to add to his 2018 where I don't feel like he's very good value in fantasy.  The good news is he isn't suspended and reportedly hasn't tested positive for anything, but nobody knows how this will turn out.  In 2016 Gordon was going through his issues in training camp and people thought he would play after his 4-game suspension, and then he ended up in rehab for the whole season.  The 4th (or 5th or 6th even, for that matter) round is too high for me to take someone that I'm not even sure when they will step on the field again.

 

I also question his productivity and upside when he does get on the field, mainly because Tyrod is set to be under center.  I think as long as Tyrod is starting, there will be a lot of check downs and short passes, which will benefit Landry and Duke a lot more than anyone else (and Njoku possibly as well).  Even if Gordon is ready Week 1, and Tyrod is QB, I feel like we'll see weeks with big yardage and big plays, but other weeks where he has something like 3 receptions for 46 yards and no TD's.  In PPR at least, I like Jarvis going a round or more later than Gordon in terms of value.

 

I could be completely wrong and Gordon is fine to start the year, and Mayfield wins the QB job and gunslings his way to a magical year for both of them, but I just don't see the risk/reward here being worth it.  I know the potential ceiling is very high, but the likelihood of reaching that ceiling is also very low and needs a lot of things to go right.  Bad QB that doesn't throw down field, lots of other threats to his target share, more personal issues, etc.  There are a lot more WR's still on the board at Gordon's ADP that have nearly the same ceiling, but much higher floors, and much better situations.

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21 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

The reports I'm reading are saying that Gordon is dealing with anxiety issues, so I'm not sure why there's pages of arguments about the pros and cons of pot.  

 

From a real world / football perspective I'm glad that whatever Gordon is dealing with right now (whether that be anxiety or substance abuse or whatever), I'm glad that he's dealing with it the right way.  That bodes the best for his long term health and recovery.

 

That being said, this is just another question mark to add to his 2018 where I don't feel like he's very good value in fantasy.  The good news is he isn't suspended and reportedly hasn't tested positive for anything, but nobody knows how this will turn out.  In 2016 Gordon was going through his issues in training camp and people thought he would play after his 4-game suspension, and then he ended up in rehab for the whole season.  The 4th (or 5th or 6th even, for that matter) round is too high for me to take someone that I'm not even sure when they will step on the field again.

 

I also question his productivity and upside when he does get on the field, mainly because Tyrod is set to be under center.  I think as long as Tyrod is starting, there will be a lot of check downs and short passes, which will benefit Landry and Duke a lot more than anyone else (and Njoku possibly as well).  Even if Gordon is ready Week 1, and Tyrod is QB, I feel like we'll see weeks with big yardage and big plays, but other weeks where he has something like 3 receptions for 46 yards and no TD's.  In PPR at least, I like Jarvis going a round or more later than Gordon in terms of value.

 

I could be completely wrong and Gordon is fine to start the year, and Mayfield wins the QB job and gunslings his way to a magical year for both of them, but I just don't see the risk/reward here being worth it.  I know the potential ceiling is very high, but the likelihood of reaching that ceiling is also very low and needs a lot of things to go right.  Bad QB that doesn't throw down field, lots of other threats to his target share, more personal issues, etc.  There are a lot more WR's still on the board at Gordon's ADP that have nearly the same ceiling, but much higher floors, and much better situations.

 

Weed is a common treatment for anxiety. Also, going from stoner to sober is going to increase said anxiety. So the pot talk makes sense in that context.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

 

 

I also question his productivity and upside when he does get on the field, mainly because Tyrod is set to be under center.  I think as long as Tyrod is starting, there will be a lot of check downs and short passes, which will benefit Landry and Duke a lot more than anyone else (and Njoku possibly as well).  Even if Gordon is ready Week 1, and Tyrod is QB, I feel like we'll see weeks with big yardage and big plays, but other weeks where he has something like 3 receptions for 46 yards and no TD's.  In PPR at least, I like Jarvis going a round or more later than Gordon in terms of value.

 

I could be completely wrong and Gordon is fine to start the year, and Mayfield wins the QB job and gunslings his way to a magical year for both of them, but I just don't see the risk/reward here being worth it.  I know the potential ceiling is very high, but the likelihood of reaching that ceiling is also very low and needs a lot of things to go right.  Bad QB that doesn't throw down field, lots of other threats to his target share, more personal issues, etc.  There are a lot more WR's still on the board at Gordon's ADP that have nearly the same ceiling, but much higher floors, and much better situations.

 

I think you have to look at the OC and HC offensive philosophies vs the history of a QB in an entirely different system with different weapons around him.

Haley's basic offensive philosophy as well as Hue's is to stretch the field vertically so for the running game to work in a Haley offense he needs a big play wr who can get you those chunk yards quickly and keep defenses unbalanced. . . . .JOSH GORDON.

Tyrod has shown he can consistently throw downfield. Tyrod is going to play to the scheme of the OC and the OC is not going to create a scheme where his starting QB will fail, so expect some serious throws and big plays from Tyrod to Josh.

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Josh Gordon is going to seriously disappoint as a fantasy and real life WR for the first 4 games and then he is going to be suspended. Not only that, but if you draft him before the 6th round you’ll have seven years of bad luck, a unicorn will die and the Patriots will win another Super Bowl.

 

Do Not Draft for sure.

 

Tell your friends.

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23 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Josh Gordon is going to seriously disappoint as a fantasy and real life WR for the first 4 games and then he is going to be suspended. Not only that, but if you draft him before the 6th round you’ll have seven years of bad luck, a unicorn will die and the Patriots will win another Super Bowl.

 

Do Not Draft for sure.

 

Tell your friends.

I could deal with all of that until you mentioned the Patriots winning another SB. I'm out.

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7 hours ago, ss3walkman said:

 

Definitely not "a lot" more talent than 2013. 

 

A POSSIBLE breakout at TE - how often does a rookie breakout at TE?

Landry - debatable, but ok.

Coleman - has done nothing two years in. 

Callaway - Odd man out. Fighting for snaps.

 

Bess, Benjamin and Little all put up at least 500+ yards the year Gordon went bonkers. Those players and those numbers are better than anything Callaway has done considering he hasn't played a single NFL snap, and more than Coleman has had in any season so far. To say that Gordon won't succeed because of the "upgraded" supporting cast is inaccurate imo. 

 

What you should've said is "Gordon may not succeed because he doesn't have Norv Turner calling the plays". Then you would've had a yourself a debatable defense. 

 

Im not sure why you would mention Benjamin at all. He had 5 catches in 2013. He didnt have his big year until 2015.

 

The biggest difference in talent is the RBs. A washed up Willis Mcgahee in his last season and Chris Ogbonnaya vs Duke/Hyde/Chubb? 

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4 hours ago, Evincar said:

 

Im not sure why you would mention Benjamin at all. He had 5 catches in 2013. He didnt have his big year until 2015.

 

The biggest difference in talent is the RBs. A washed up Willis Mcgahee in his last season and Chris Ogbonnaya vs Duke/Hyde/Chubb? 

Really depends on the team and more to that fact the defense.  In 13 they were always playing from behind and threw the ball a league high 681 times.

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15 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I think you have to look at the OC and HC offensive philosophies vs the history of a QB in an entirely different system with different weapons around him.

Haley's basic offensive philosophy as well as Hue's is to stretch the field vertically so for the running game to work in a Haley offense he needs a big play wr who can get you those chunk yards quickly and keep defenses unbalanced. . . . .JOSH GORDON.

Tyrod has shown he can consistently throw downfield. Tyrod is going to play to the scheme of the OC and the OC is not going to create a scheme where his starting QB will fail, so expect some serious throws and big plays from Tyrod to Josh.

 

This sounds logical to me and gives some hope that Gordon can work with Tyrod this year, but I still feel like there are too many doubts for me to invest at the price he's currently going at.  And even with a more aggressive offensive scheme, looking at Tyrod's deep ball numbers last year he looks like a bottom tier QB even in that regard.  His completion percentage on deep balls was only 35.3%, with an accuracy of 48.5%.  Those aren't the worst stats among QBs on deep balls, but they're in the bottom third of the league.  Even Kizer had a completion percentage of 42.2% on deep balls and 60% accuracy!

 

But like I said, too many issues and too much risk for me at that point in the draft.  If he drops I'd consider, but at some point you have to stop and wonder why you're spending a 3rd or 4th round pick on a guy that last put up WR1 numbers 5 years ago.  

 

 

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3 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

This sounds logical to me and gives some hope that Gordon can work with Tyrod this year, but I still feel like there are too many doubts for me to invest at the price he's currently going at.  And even with a more aggressive offensive scheme, looking at Tyrod's deep ball numbers last year he looks like a bottom tier QB even in that regard.  His completion percentage on deep balls was only 35.3%, with an accuracy of 48.5%.  Those aren't the worst stats among QBs on deep balls, but they're in the bottom third of the league.  Even Kizer had a completion percentage of 42.2% on deep balls and 60% accuracy!

 

But like I said, too many issues and too much risk for me at that point in the draft.  If he drops I'd consider, but at some point you have to stop and wonder why you're spending a 3rd or 4th round pick on a guy that last put up WR1 numbers 5 years ago.  

 

 

I always thought Tyrod was regarded as one of the better deep ball passers. Do his career numbers align with last season's numbers? 

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14 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

I always thought Tyrod was regarded as one of the better deep ball passers. Do his career numbers align with last season's numbers? 

 

I think the fact that Taylor was in the "bottom third" and not the bottom 5 considering what a s--- show the Bills were last year is pretty impressive. I think the knock on Taylor has been his short range accuracy. Pretty sure his deep ball has always been pretty good. Given the teams he has been on and the way most of his coaches have dumped all over him, I think he is a very impressive guy. With the O Line, weapons and support of the coaching staff and teamates he has in Cleveland, it would not surprise me at all if he had his best season as a pro and was a solid NFL QB if not fantasy QB.

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3 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

This sounds logical to me and gives some hope that Gordon can work with Tyrod this year, but I still feel like there are too many doubts for me to invest at the price he's currently going at.  And even with a more aggressive offensive scheme, looking at Tyrod's deep ball numbers last year he looks like a bottom tier QB even in that regard.  His completion percentage on deep balls was only 35.3%, with an accuracy of 48.5%.  Those aren't the worst stats among QBs on deep balls, but they're in the bottom third of the league.  Even Kizer had a completion percentage of 42.2% on deep balls and 60% accuracy!

 

But like I said, too many issues and too much risk for me at that point in the draft.  If he drops I'd consider, but at some point you have to stop and wonder why you're spending a 3rd or 4th round pick on a guy that last put up WR1 numbers 5 years ago.  

 

 

 

Because when he came back last year, he showed the same skill sets he had 5 years ago. If you watched him play, he was beating DBs consistently but his QB was pathetic and couldn't get him the ball. 

If you pass on Gordon because of his talent, you are dead wrong. 

If you pass on Gordon because you don't want to waste a 3rd/4th round pick on a player that can be out of the league at any point, well then I can't argue with you.  He is a HUGE gamble. But it has nothing to do with his talent. And while Tyrod isn't anything special he is infinitely better than Deshone Kizer and the Browns supporting cast is infinitely better than it was last year. 

If Gordon can keep his head on straight, he is a WR1. If not, he is a WR0. 

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4 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

I think the fact that Taylor was in the "bottom third" and not the bottom 5 considering what a s--- show the Bills were last year is pretty impressive. I think the knock on Taylor has been his short range accuracy. Pretty sure his deep ball has always been pretty good. Given the teams he has been on and the way most of his coaches have dumped all over him, I think he is a very impressive guy. With the O Line, weapons and support of the coaching staff and teamates he has in Cleveland, it would not surprise me at all if he had his best season as a pro and was a solid NFL QB if not fantasy QB.

I think Tyrod is a sneaky good fantasy QB this year. Definitely worth a stash. With his WR weapons, Duke out of the backfield, and his legs, he could be in for a very good fantasy season. 

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1 hour ago, Grayson2401 said:

I think Tyrod is a sneaky good fantasy QB this year. Definitely worth a stash. With his WR weapons, Duke out of the backfield, and his legs, he could be in for a very good fantasy season. 

 

Yeah, I've been warming up to Tyrod.

 

Thinking something like a Tyrod/Mariota late stack and hope one pans out.

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