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Ian Happ 2018 Outlook

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Picked this dude up as a flier at the very end of the 2016 season in a dynasty league. I was hoping he would shoot up the prospects list and I can flip him to a rebuilding team for a bullpen arm. Anyway long story short, I ended up liking the guy and decided to hold on to him. I got lucky and had him in the lineup on the days he raked and had him out on the 4K days. Anyway what do we think of him for 2018? 

 

500 PA .250 65R 30HR 70RBI 10 SB 

or

200 PA .225 20R 8HR 30RBI 4SB

or

AAA

 

I'm not a big metrics guy, I go off of scouting reports, the eye test and math when it comes to fantasy baseball. 

He's got quick hands and seems to be more athletic than most. But he does K alot. 

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7 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

Picked this dude up as a flier at the very end of the 2016 season in a dynasty league. I was hoping he would shoot up the prospects list and I can flip him to a rebuilding team for a bullpen arm. Anyway long story short, I ended up liking the guy and decided to hold on to him. I got lucky and had him in the lineup on the days he raked and had him out on the 4K days. Anyway what do we think of him for 2018? 

 

500 PA .250 65R 30HR 70RBI 10 SB 

or

200 PA .225 20R 8HR 30RBI 4SB

or

AAA

 

I'm not a big metrics guy, I go off of scouting reports, the eye test and math when it comes to fantasy baseball. 

He's got quick hands and seems to be more athletic than most. But he does K alot. 

He was available in a dynasty league, wow. OK, you said 2016.

Edited by Topgun

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3 minutes ago, Topgun said:

He was available in a dynasty league, wow. OK, you said 2016.

 

Only 13 bench spots. we have holds and obp as extra cats. Sometimes some prospect that seems to be blocked don't get picked up early. 

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I'd say cuts the K rate down a little to 27-28 percent and probably a really safe bet for 400 PAs and 20 home runs with around that .250 average. 

With an injury to anyone, he would be the one to benefit most. 

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He has massive power at a position that is largely devoid of it.  (Schoop)  Not sure how much he'll play on the Cubs crowded roster. He only got like 5 at bats in the entire postseason. If he gets traded or the Cubs make a trade to un crowd the roster his value would shoot up. Good dynasty prospect in my opinion. 

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Yeah he seemed to get dismissed by Maddon last year. The only player really blocking him is Schwarber, who the Cubs seem 150% committed too. Now if schwarber comes out pancake flat like he did last year, Happ could take his spot, but I do not see that happening. 

 

Assuming no other changes to the offense this off-season, he will be a part-time player that will produce when called on. This makes him a guy to in daily leagues for cheap, and I would take a late flier on him in weekly leagues in the event there is some injury in the OF or to Baez.

Edited by 2ndCitySox

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5 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Yeah he seemed to get dismissed by Maddon last year. The only player really blocking him is Schwarber, who the Cubs seem 150% committed too. Now if schwarber comes out pancake flat like he did last year, Happ could take his spot, but I do not see that happening. 

 

Assuming no other changes to the offense this off-season, he will be a part-time player that will produce when called on. This makes him a guy to in daily leagues for cheap, and I would take a late flier on him in weekly leagues in the event there is some injury in the OF or to Baez.

Baez seemed to get plenty of playing time in the "part-time" role in previous seasons. Happ can play 2B and OF positions correct? I could see Maddon moving him around giving rest to others regualarly like he did with Baez. I think Happ will get plenty of AB's just needs to get those k's down.

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2 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

if we knew he was getting full year of ab's where would happ get drafted?

His current ADP is 145, maybe 110 to 125, just my opinion.

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Love the power with a little speed sprinkled in, but any reason to think he won't be a part time player? Does Maddon play anyone full time other than Brizzo? 

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2 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

if we knew he was getting full year of ab's where would happ get drafted?

Is there any reason to think he might get full time work? I'd think his price would skyrocket to Albies levels. Which is to say in higher level leagues the hype might get a bit out of control. 

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18 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Is there any reason to think he might get full time work? I'd think his price would skyrocket to Albies levels. Which is to say in higher level leagues the hype might get a bit out of control. 

not right now. i was just trying to see what his value would be if someone ends up getting inj or if he just plays his way into a full time gig.

if you can get a potential fringe top 50 top 75? player at a 100 pick discount because of worry about PT then he is a great gamble imo especially if hes your 2nd or 3rd bench bat. possible mini dozier like upside 

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Doe anyone think that maybe Russell could become an after thought? Baez has to play because he is one of the best defenders on the team, he could play SS and Happ goes to 2nd.

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3 hours ago, Picard56 said:

Doe anyone think that maybe Russell could become an after thought? Baez has to play because he is one of the best defenders on the team, he could play SS and Happ goes to 2nd.

As a Happ owner, I'd like that, I believe Russell is a trade chip.

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6 hours ago, Picard56 said:

Doe anyone think that maybe Russell could become an after thought? Baez has to play because he is one of the best defenders on the team, he could play SS and Happ goes to 2nd.

 

Russell was an elite defender last year despite a shoulder issue. Ranked second among shortstops with 15 defensive runs saved. So no he’s not an afterthought. 

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11 hours ago, ryno1980 said:

 

Russell was an elite defender last year despite a shoulder issue. Ranked second among shortstops with 15 defensive runs saved. So no he’s not an afterthought. 

 

Yeah, but his offense stinks. Baez is more than adequate replacement defensively and offensively.

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14 hours ago, Topgun said:

As a Happ owner, I'd like that, I believe Russell is a trade chip.

 

He has to be at this point. I think he's not really gonna development into anything that much better. There were reports they tried to trade him for a 1 year rental for Machado in the off-season.

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I'm have no doubt it's been discussed. But he doesn't have to be a trade chip. Russell and Baez have been about the same offensively. He may not develop but we don't know and I think the Cubs don't have any reason to be in a hurry to trade someone before finding out how these guys develop in the next couple years. As it stands, they have probably the best defensive tandem up the middle in baseball.  

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On 3/1/2018 at 8:42 PM, ryno1980 said:

I'm have no doubt it's been discussed. But he doesn't have to be a trade chip. Russell and Baez have been about the same offensively. He may not develop but we don't know and I think the Cubs don't have any reason to be in a hurry to trade someone before finding out how these guys develop in the next couple years. As it stands, they have probably the best defensive tandem up the middle in baseball.  

 

What about Happ just moving to center field?

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20 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

What about Happ just moving to center field?

 

I'm all for it. He already played 50 some games there last year. He'll get better. Almora's fine as the fourth outfielder if Happ is truly gonna break out. 

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10 hours ago, Picard56 said:

Kind of running away with the CF job at this point right?

Big believer. If he wins the job outright and hits at the top of the lineup, watch out. 

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Seems under-the-radar.  Is it possible he sneaks into full-time ABs and leadoff without his ADP jumping much from where it is now?  That would be dooooope....

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4 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Seems under-the-radar.  Is it possible he sneaks into full-time ABs and leadoff without his ADP jumping much from where it is now?  That would be dooooope....

 

I wasn't planning on drafting him this year, but so far Almora has still floundered against righties and Happ is just on fire. I'm gonna go for this guy by the 14-15 round in a ten team league.

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