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Ian Happ 2018 Outlook

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For those looking to gauge his value while potentially buying low or cutting bait, I got him for Brad Brach over the weekend in a competitive league.  12 team 5x5 Roto.

 

Ian's in there batting leadoff today.

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9 minutes ago, PirateFan43 said:

For those looking to gauge his value while potentially buying low or cutting bait, I got him for Brad Brach over the weekend in a competitive league.  12 team 5x5 Roto.

 

Ian's in there batting leadoff today.

 

Benched till further notice.  Welcome to the lineup Jed Lowrie.

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I just traded him for Chris Taylor, for another example of his current value.

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[ This thread is getting really BC/CSB-centric, guys. Let's back off topics like "I'm benching him" and "this is what I traded him for in my league". ]

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2 hours ago, jimbo504 said:

I just traded him for Chris Taylor, for another example of his current value.

 

I think I’d love that... ?

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If you drafted Happ, no way even consider giving in if you did your HW on him and still were sold. You had to know he was going to be a high K% guy.

 

If you just drafted because he was top prospect who hit 24 HRs last year and didn't dig much past it. Well..hate to break it you ya. Young player development isn't usually linear in growth.

 

I passed because didn't buy him being a 25% HR/FB guy for a full season. Didn't think given he whiffed at both hard and breaking pitches, and his K% in the minors was always north of 20%. He was not going to make major improvements to contact in re-draft. Said he was going to adjust all the high FBs he was getting, but so far looks like Four-seamers are still overwhelming him.  He's still got a lot of time to make me regret not owning shares though

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

If you drafted Happ, no way even consider giving in if you did your HW on him and still were sold. You had to know he was going to be a high K% guy.

 

If you just drafted because he was top prospect who hit 24 HRs last year and didn't dig much past it. Well..hate to break it you ya. Young player development isn't usually linear in growth.

 

I passed because didn't buy him being a 25% HR/FB guy for a full season. Didn't think given he whiffed at both hard and breaking pitches, and his K% in the minors was always north of 20%. He was not going to make major improvements to contact in re-draft. Said he was going to adjust all the high FBs he was getting, but so far looks like Four-seamers are still overwhelming him.  He's still got a lot of time to make me regret not owning shares though

 

It's not as much that I think Happ will always be this bad, it's just that he's going to end up losing playing time/platooned even harder with these K problems making his value null, even if he picks it up. Less at bats are just going to make him irrelevant 

Edited by loro1991

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i wouldnt drop/give up on happy just yet. hes got too much talent. but the trend isnt good. you can see he was starting to be a different hitter last year. his k rate prior to making the bigs has never been this concerning. 

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18 hours ago, mjuevos said:

i wouldnt drop/give up on happy just yet. hes got too much talent. but the trend isnt good. you can see he was starting to be a different hitter last year. his k rate prior to making the bigs has never been this concerning. 

No doubt. I'm shocked some are already cutting bait. If this kid ends up at the top of the Cubs lineup all summer long, a lot of people are going to look foolish.

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17 minutes ago, dchamps said:

Going yard today

 

(3/8, 2 HR off Nova)

 

At this point I just want to see decent contact and no K's.  

 

If he struggles to make contact against Nova, we've got real problems

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2 hours ago, MugsyBogues said:

No doubt. I'm shocked some are already cutting bait. If this kid ends up at the top of the Cubs lineup all summer long, a lot of people are going to look foolish.

 

I am holding him on my bench, and as I said, the reason I am down on him isn't directly performance. I wouldn't bet on him maintaining a 56% K rate. It's just that when he does improve, he is going to end up in such a hard platoon/part time role that he is irrelevant. He is already pretty much there. Guys like Barretto and Profar start to sound similar as they also don't have direct paths to playing time. Even if Starlin Castro is meh (I'm in a MI CI league), he is hitting 3rd in the lineup and getting a lot of opportunities for counting stats with good enough OBP. I couldn't really fault someone in the right league context for playing it safe with Castro as opposed to hoping Happ somehow ends up playing everyday. He's gonna get platooned hard. That's my intuition, at least. 

 

It's not black and white with early drops, they all have different context. Generally it's best to wait around a month or so to get a baseline. But at that point, sometimes cutting bait works out. 

Edited by loro1991

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1 minute ago, loro1991 said:

 

I am holding him on my bench, and as I said, the reason I am down on him isn't directly performance. I wouldn't bet on him maintaining a 56% K rate. It's just that when he does improve, he is going to end up in such a hard platoon/part time role that he is irrelevant. Guys like Barretto and Profar start to sound enticing though they also don't have direct paths to playing time. Even if Starlin Castro is meh (I'm in a MI CI league), he is hitting 3rd in the lineup and getting a lot of opportunities for counting stats with good enough OBP. I couldn't really fault someone in the right league context for playing it safe with Castro as opposed to hoping Happ somehow ends up playing everyday. He's gonna get platooned hard. That's my intuition, at least. 

 

You do know he's a switch hitter, right?

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16 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You do know he's a switch hitter, right?

 

I did not, thanks for the info. It still doesn't convince me he's not a big platoon risk but that versatility will help him in Maddon's eyes and give him more chances. We know Maddon likes him in general. So overall that is a +value that I was unaware of.

 

Being a switch hitter also would make it reasonable that it will take more time for him to shake off the rust. More variables in approach to hammer out.

 

Small samples that don't mean much but for reference 

 

Happ 2018

vs. RHP 3 hits 20 AB - .150 BA .227 OBP 13 K's

vs LHP 2 hits in 8 AB - .250 BA .250 OBP 4 K's

vs. RHP as LHB 3 hits in 20 AB .227 OBP 13 K's

vs. LHP as RHB  2 hits in 8 AB - .250 .250 OBP 4 K's

 

Happ 2017 

vs. RHP 63 hits 259 AB - .243 BA .334 OBP 97 K's

vs LHP 29 hits in 105 AB - .276 BA .313 OBP 32 K's

vs. RHP as LHB 63 hits in 259 AB - .243 BA .334 OBP 97 K's

vs. LHP as RHB  29 hits in 105 AB - .276 Avg .313 OBP 32 K's 

 

 

He K's a heck of a lot vs RHP. He will need to continue to hold a .330 OBP against them to return good value. Good info sportsfreak, I still worried about the platoon but am a little less down on him now. New position, relative inexperience and having to manage switch hitting warrant a little more patience, even if that patience ends up with him being a pretty steady part time player, which kills his value. A hot streak would be a quick paradigm shift since it's fuggin April10th

Edited by loro1991

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2 hours ago, dchamps said:

Going yard today

 

(3/8, 2 HR off Nova)

That was the main reason I moved NOT-Happening in the starting lineup. 

 

So far 0-2 

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11 minutes ago, Michael Bluth said:

2 abs without striking out. Baby steps

 

Welp you jinxed that

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28 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

That was the main reason I moved NOT-Happening in the starting lineup. 

 

So far 0-2 

 

My favorite was when Happ finally decided to do something it was off Jacob Barnes who I really need as a closer. Cubs have too many pieces, Heyward, Zobes, Almora for Happ to not end up in a hard platoon. 

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On 4/10/2018 at 3:07 PM, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You do know he's a switch hitter, right?

 

Does Maddon know this ?

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On April 9, 2018 at 5:41 PM, Slatykamora said:

If you drafted Happ, no way even consider giving in if you did your HW on him and still were sold. You had to know he was going to be a high K% guy.

 

If you just drafted because he was top prospect who hit 24 HRs last year and didn't dig much past it. Well..hate to break it you ya. Young player development isn't usually linear in growth.

 

I passed because didn't buy him being a 25% HR/FB guy for a full season. Didn't think given he whiffed at both hard and breaking pitches, and his K% in the minors was always north of 20%. He was not going to make major improvements to contact in re-draft. Said he was going to adjust all the high FBs he was getting, but so far looks like Four-seamers are still overwhelming him.  He's still got a lot of time to make me regret not owning shares though

 

 

 

I was pretty damn lazy with a lot of my fantasy baseball this year. For Happ it was "looks like he has good power, runs a little and Maddon said he's leading off yay"

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