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Ian Happ 2018 Outlook

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10 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I'm not disputing that Happ should have been taken ahead of Kingery (who is pure garbage).  I'm just saying that in both cases the fantasy communities overreacted to their meaningless big springs and their ADPs skyrocketed.

 

If you wanted to spend a late-round flier (outside the top 200) on Happ because of his power potential, fine, I can't blame you for that.  However, most leagues he went inside the top 150, where there was zero profit potential (and a lot of downside potential).

 

Like peelpup correctly said (to his credit before the season started), Happ's 25 HR potential probably isn't worth the batting average downside.  Especially when he has very little speed and the Cubs have such a crowded group of 2B/OF where a 500 AB season seemed extremely unlikely.

 

Well you're being the exact polar opposite of those ST hypers.

 

As a rookie, in just 364 AB's he was top 10 in homers, top 15 in RBI's and top 25 in runs scored at 2B. He also hit .253. I understand that his peripherals suggested that he shouldn't have hit .253 and it should've been lower. But at the same time, he was a rookie heading into his second season. Even before the big ST many were expecting at least a small step forward. His main issue, and an issue most people knew about going into the season seems to be playing time. He wasn't being drafted for his average or speed. At 2B and with the ability to plug him in at OF if needed, there's no way he's a last round flier. There were worst players going inside the top 200. 

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Maddon needs to stick with him.  Happ has still been sitting too much despite showing life lately.

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12 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I'm not disputing that Happ should have been taken ahead of Kingery (who is pure garbage).  I'm just saying that in both cases the fantasy communities overreacted to their meaningless big springs and their ADPs skyrocketed.

 

If you wanted to spend a late-round flier (outside the top 200) on Happ because of his power potential, fine, I can't blame you for that.  However, most leagues he went inside the top 150, where there was zero profit potential (and a lot of downside potential).

 

Like peelpup correctly said (to his credit before the season started), Happ's 25 HR potential probably isn't worth the batting average downside.  Especially when he has very little speed and the Cubs have such a crowded group of 2B/OF where a 500 AB season seemed extremely unlikely.

 

I understood your example, just fail to see how Kingery strengthens your argument that he should not have been drafted in the top 200. Happ played 2/3rds of a full MLB season, Kingery was a glorified prospect with zero MLB exposure.

 

Happ finished ranked at 261 in yahoo for 2017 & only played in 115 games. He was not pre-season ranked by experts at 133 based on 25HR potential, he hit 24HRs in 115 games. Many had him pegged for 30+ HRs & with 2B eligibility that is huge & definitely worth the drop in AVG/OBP (I.e Brian Dozier) 

 

Currently you have the benefit of hindsight on your side, but can you honestly tell me that after having such a strong showing in his rookie year that it would not be plausible to see an increase in his FBB rank by 61+ if he was given an extra 47 games??? Drafting him in the top 150 would have a been a slight reach, but he was pre-season ranked 133 in yahoo. 

 

I do agree with you that Kingery is trash & that Spring Training is worthless - different sport but (I.e 2008 Detroit Lions 4-0 PreSeason then 0-16 Reg Season). 

 

Oh ya & Happ is heating up btw... 

 

For the record I did not draft Happ this year, I took a flier on him on the WW after the original owner dropped him. 

 

 

 

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On 5/7/2018 at 10:49 PM, mjb03003 said:

There are far worse bench/util bats. He was in for me tonight because of the light Monday slate. He typically sits if my starters are all playing.

 

Continue to get very useful stats out of this guy. I haven’t been able to find a more reliable 2B so I may just plug him back in as my default starter. 

 

I’m sure he was dropped in a lot of leagues but it might be time to reacquire if that’s the case in your league. 

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9 hours ago, Jrick45 said:

 

 

I understood your example, just fail to see how Kingery strengthens your argument that he should not have been drafted in the top 200. Happ played 2/3rds of a full MLB season, Kingery was a glorified prospect with zero MLB exposure.

 

Happ finished ranked at 261 in yahoo for 2017 & only played in 115 games. He was not pre-season ranked by experts at 133 based on 25HR potential, he hit 24HRs in 115 games. Many had him pegged for 30+ HRs & with 2B eligibility that is huge & definitely worth the drop in AVG/OBP (I.e Brian Dozier) 

 

Currently you have the benefit of hindsight on your side, but can you honestly tell me that after having such a strong showing in his rookie year that it would not be plausible to see an increase in his FBB rank by 61+ if he was given an extra 47 games??? Drafting him in the top 150 would have a been a slight reach, but he was pre-season ranked 133 in yahoo. 

 

I do agree with you that Kingery is trash & that Spring Training is worthless - different sport but (I.e 2008 Detroit Lions 4-0 PreSeason then 0-16 Reg Season). 

 

Oh ya & Happ is heating up btw... 

 

For the record I did not draft Happ this year, I took a flier on him on the WW after the original owner dropped him. 

 

 

 

 

The point I'm trying to make is that Happ's ADP rose substantially throughout spring training thanks to his hot spring.  Happ's O-Rank was 189 when Yahoo opened fantasy baseball in February and moved all the way up to 133 by the end of spring training (where there was zero profit potential anymore and a lot of downside potential).

 

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 15 years, including a lot of money leagues, and if there's one thing I learned from that experience it is to ignore a player's spring training stats almost completely.  It's definitely important to follow which pitchers get named closers and make the rotation during spring, but the spring stats are close to meaningless to follow.   I find it funny how these Yahoo "experts" like Dalton Del Don and Brad Evans always overreact to spring training every year.  (I remember seeing multiple articles from Dalton Del Don this spring going crazy about Happ.)  Scott Pianowski does usually provide pretty sound advice, and he's normally the only Yahoo "expert" that I findd worthwhile to read.

 

I'm aware that what I'm saying has the benefit of hindsight on my side.  That's why I was saying I think peelpub deserves so much credit for his correct prediction prior to the season.

 

By the way, like you, I also did not draft Happ but picked him up in early May when he was dropped.  Happ had done absolutely nothing for me after picking him up until yesterday.  (Facing the Reds pitching staff sure helps.)  

Edited by FootballFan101
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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

The point I'm trying to make is that Happ's ADP rose substantially throughout spring training thanks to his hot spring.  Happ's O-Rank was 189 when Yahoo opened fantasy baseball in February and moved all the way up to 133 by the end of spring training (where there was zero profit potential anymore and a lot of downside potential).

 

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 15 years, including a lot of money leagues, and if there's one thing I learned from that experience it is to ignore a player's spring training stats almost completely.  It's definitely important to follow which pitchers get named closers and make the rotation during spring, but the spring stats are close to meaningless to follow.   I find it funny how these Yahoo "experts" like Dalton Del Don and Brad Evans always overreact to spring training every year.  (I remember seeing multiple articles from Dalton Del Don this spring going crazy about Happ.)  Scott Pianowski does usually provide pretty sound advice, and he's normally the only Yahoo "expert" that I findd worthwhile to read.

 

I'm aware that what I'm saying has the benefit of hindsight on my side.  That's why I was saying I think peelpub deserves so much credit for his correct prediction prior to the season.

 

By the way, like you, I also did not draft Happ but picked him up in early May when he was dropped.  Happ had done absolutely nothing for me after picking him up until yesterday.  (Facing the Reds pitching staff sure helps.)  

 

I can 100% agree with you that outside of Deep Keeper/Dynasty formats that Happ should not have been drafted near his pre-season rank of 133 & that it was far too optimistic for this season. But your original post was based on the Top 200 & ZERO leagues of ANY kind should not draft him that high. 

 

Im simply stating that most of us who have played Fantasy Sports for over a decade that we ignore Spring Training stats, yourself included. (I too have been playing for a long time & have been in the same league since 2002). I'll state my point again - Happ hit 24 HRs in 115 games last year & finished ranked at 261, solid spring training or not drafting a multiple position player with 30 HR potential in a stud a lineup in the top 200 is not an unreasonable draft position. 

 

His low AVG/OBP is just one category, owners punt individual categories all the time. I typically build my teams to punt AVG/OBP + Saves & then stack my team to dominate power (Runs/HRs/RBIs) & focus on Speed (Trout/Dee Gordon). By Peelups logic than Dozier should not be drafted in the top 200???? The guy has very very streaky 30HR potential every year w/ horrible Avg/OBP but is consistently drafted in the top 80 players. 

 

I get your point that your trying to emphasize that his "hot spring training" drove up his stock/ADP, but what I am trying to tell you that it was his MLB success + Multiple Pos Eligibility + Lineup/Team that made him attractive. 

 

There were plenty of far worse selections in the top 200. I.e Buxton, Ozuna, Puig, D. Santana, A Jones, Odor, etc 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Jrick45 said:

 

I can 100% agree with you that outside of Deep Keeper/Dynasty formats that Happ should not have been drafted near his pre-season rank of 133 & that it was far too optimistic for this season. But your original post was based on the Top 200 & ZERO leagues of ANY kind should not draft him that high. 

 

Im simply stating that most of us who have played Fantasy Sports for over a decade that we ignore Spring Training stats, yourself included. (I too have been playing for a long time & have been in the same league since 2002). I'll state my point again - Happ hit 24 HRs in 115 games last year & finished ranked at 261, solid spring training or not drafting a multiple position player with 30 HR potential in a stud a lineup in the top 200 is not an unreasonable draft position. 

 

His low AVG/OBP is just one category, owners punt individual categories all the time. I typically build my teams to punt AVG/OBP + Saves & then stack my team to dominate power (Runs/HRs/RBIs) & focus on Speed (Trout/Dee Gordon). By Peelups logic than Dozier should not be drafted in the top 200???? The guy has very very streaky 30HR potential every year w/ horrible Avg/OBP but is consistently drafted in the top 80 players. 

 

I get your point that your trying to emphasize that his "hot spring training" drove up his stock/ADP, but what I am trying to tell you that it was his MLB success + Multiple Pos Eligibility + Lineup/Team that made him attractive. 

 

There were plenty of far worse selections in the top 200. I.e Buxton, Ozuna, Puig, D. Santana, A Jones, Odor, etc 

 

 

 

I would agree with this. It's easy to say someone struggled and then say they shouldn't have been drafted as high after the fact. Many players don't live up to their draft status. But there were (and still are) a lot of reasons to like Ian Happ. At 22, he put up 24 HRs in a partial season. And with middle infield eligibility. Plus he'll steal some. And he plays in a good line-up. He could potentially give you Runs, HRs, RBI, and some steals with both 2B and OF eligibility. Not to mention he can take a walk. Which helps in OBP to mitigate what should be a poor average.

 

Let's also not forget he's just 23 and was a rookie last year. There's some reason to expect growth. Although Happ punched out 32 percent of the time last year in the majors, he never exceeding 24 percent at any minor league stop. So there was some belief he'd actually drop his K-rate. Instead its gone the other way so far in 2018. That's his biggest problem. Everything else is fine. His isolated power ranks in the top 30 in the league. He's still walking. In fact all his rate stats look good. Except the strikeouts. He can't sustain his current rate (41.4%). But if he could drop back to 2017 levels (31.2%) or *gasp* even improve a little, then he's probably just fine for any league. Because everything else he's doing looks pretty good. I'm just not sure if he can succeed in doing that or not. But there's certainly a chance it could happen.

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1 hour ago, Jrick45 said:

 

I can 100% agree with you that outside of Deep Keeper/Dynasty formats that Happ should not have been drafted near his pre-season rank of 133 & that it was far too optimistic for this season. But your original post was based on the Top 200 & ZERO leagues of ANY kind should not draft him that high. 

 

Im simply stating that most of us who have played Fantasy Sports for over a decade that we ignore Spring Training stats, yourself included. (I too have been playing for a long time & have been in the same league since 2002). I'll state my point again - Happ hit 24 HRs in 115 games last year & finished ranked at 261, solid spring training or not drafting a multiple position player with 30 HR potential in a stud a lineup in the top 200 is not an unreasonable draft position. 

 

His low AVG/OBP is just one category, owners punt individual categories all the time. I typically build my teams to punt AVG/OBP + Saves & then stack my team to dominate power (Runs/HRs/RBIs) & focus on Speed (Trout/Dee Gordon). By Peelups logic than Dozier should not be drafted in the top 200???? The guy has very very streaky 30HR potential every year w/ horrible Avg/OBP but is consistently drafted in the top 80 players. 

 

I get your point that your trying to emphasize that his "hot spring training" drove up his stock/ADP, but what I am trying to tell you that it was his MLB success + Multiple Pos Eligibility + Lineup/Team that made him attractive. 

 

There were plenty of far worse selections in the top 200. I.e Buxton, Ozuna, Puig, D. Santana, A Jones, Odor, etc 

 

 

 

My bad.  I should have clarified that I was referring to redraft leagues with that comment, not to keeper leagues as well.

 

I thought Dozier was overranked this year and I own zero shares of him, but he's a good deal better than Happ. Dozier strikes out a lot less (22% career K rate for Dozier, 38% for Happ), steals more bases (34 SB the past two years combined for Dozier, 23 SB for Happ the past two years including the minors), and has more power (76 HR the past two years combined for Dozier, 48 HR the past two years for Happ including the minors).  Plus Dozier obviously had a lot clearer path to playing time than Happ.  Happ was never a huge power guy in the minors, so while 24 HR in 115 games was impressive, I would have been skeptical of him repeating that pace considering he never had more than 15 HR in any minor league season.  

Edited by FootballFan101

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40 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

My bad.  I should have clarified that I was referring to redraft leagues with that comment, not to keeper leagues as well.

 

I thought Dozier was overranked this year and I own zero shares of him, but he's a good deal better than Happ. Dozier strikes out a lot less (22% career K rate for Dozier, 38% for Happ), steals more bases (34 SB the past two years combined for Dozier, 23 SB for Happ the past two years including the minors), and has more power (76 HR the past two years combined for Dozier, 48 HR the past two years for Happ including the minors).  Plus Dozier obviously had a lot clearer path to playing time than Happ.  Happ was never a huge power guy in the minors, so while 24 HR in 115 games was impressive, I would have been skeptical of him repeating that pace considering he never had more than 15 HR in any minor league season.  

 

 

Minor League Power #s for a 20/21 year old are about as irrelevant as Spring Training stats when trying to accurately project them in MLB. Dozier was far from a power hitter in the minors (hit a TOTAL of 10 HRs at the age of 22 & 23, not to mention he only hit 8HRs at the age of 25) & didn't eclipse the 20+ HR mark until the age of 26 & it took a full MLB season to do it. Take a look at Doziers & Happ's MILB stats - very very similar players with the exception that Dozier had a tad more speed.  

 

Dozier is an established starter, with proven power & certainly has a solidified path to playing time - that was not my argument.

 

My argument pertaining to Dozier, was that the logic of you shouldn't draft a player who has 25+ HR potential because their AVG/OBP could drag you down is silly. Who cares about K Rate? We live in a world of baseball where a batters launch angle has taken over the need for AVG/OBP - The game has transitioned to putting the ball in the bleachers at all costs, small ball is a thing of the past. 

 

 

Edited by Jrick45

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I don't own Happ anywhere, and I'm not 100% sure what to make of this (maybe it's just awful CIN pitching), but dude walked 9 times in the past 4 games compared to just 4 Ks.  That's still a strikeout per game, but 9 walks suggests he's seeing the ball much better.

 

He also homered twice, doubled twice, and hit a triple.  

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4 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

I don't own Happ anywhere, and I'm not 100% sure what to make of this (maybe it's just awful CIN pitching), but dude walked 9 times in the past 4 games compared to just 4 Ks.  That's still a strikeout per game, but 9 walks suggests he's seeing the ball much better.

 

He also homered twice, doubled twice, and hit a triple.  

 

Five of them were IBBs to get to the pitcher.

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2 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

Five of them were IBBs to get to the pitcher.

 

So, not much to make of it then, although i guess 4 non-intentional to 4 Ks is better than he has been.  All that said, they could've very easily been non-intentional intentional walks where they just weren't going to give him anything to hit.

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1 minute ago, JFS179 said:

 

So, not much to make of it then, although i guess 4 non-intentional to 4 Ks is better than he has been.  All that said, they could've very easily been non-intentional intentional walks where they just weren't going to give him anything to hit.

 

I FanDueled him through the whole Reds series so watched a lot of his ABs. They were definitely pitching around him when he was in the 8 hole. It does feel like he's turning a corner though.

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I really like Happ and he has been available in my league until recently, but I couldn't pull the trigger on him simply because I feel he doesn't get enough playing time.

 

But I really like him as a player. 

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Despite his weak start, he actually has very good numbers.  Especially with his 2B/MI eligibility.   But he's out of the lineup again tonight.  smh Maddon is a joke.

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5 hours ago, fletch44 said:

 

I FanDueled him through the whole Reds series so watched a lot of his ABs. They were definitely pitching around him when he was in the 8 hole. It does feel like he's turning a corner though.

I'm actually encouraged that there are other human beings pitchers would rather face than Happ.  Baby steps.

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Pinch hit dong, his 8th of the year, in garbage time tonight. 

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On 3/14/2018 at 9:55 AM, peelpub94 said:

Almora often gets in the line up because of his excellent defense at CF. Last year, the Cubs OF was completely overloaded. Happ is nowhere near the defender in CF that Almora is. 

 

Without turning this into an Almora post, he did happen to have a really nice 2nd half. Batting .343, 5HR, 31RBI.

 

Happ's deficiencies will most likely end up hurting you in .AVG and .OBP. The 25HR potential isn't enough to roster him for me.

 

I did say that I thought Happ was badly overranked with his 133 Yahoo O-Rank because of his good meaningless spring training stats,  but peelpub deserves a lot of credit for taking it a step farther and correctly identifying in March that Happ wasn't worth drafting.

 

I picked up Happ when someone else dropped him in early May and he's done absolutely nothing for me the past 3 weeks aside from one big day (May 19th) against the Reds awful pitching staff.  I finally released him today and admitted that picking him up was a bad idea. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I did say that I thought Happ was badly overranked with his 133 Yahoo O-Rank because of his good meaningless spring training stats,  but peelpub deserves a lot of credit for taking it a step farther and correctly identifying in March that Happ wasn't worth drafting.

 

I picked up Happ when someone else dropped him in early May and he's done absolutely nothing for me the past 3 weeks aside from one big day (May 19th) against the Reds awful pitching staff.  I finally released him today and admitted that picking him up was a bad idea. 

 

 

 

.400 OBP, .981 OPS with 5 homers, 14 runs, 11 RBI's and 1 SB for the month of May in 62 official AB's. He gets too many days off for my liking but he's still on my teams. I find his multi eligibility useful when others sit and I'll take those numbers all day from a super sub. I wish he could get more playing time but it is what it is and he's serviceable for me in my leagues. If you're in a H2H he's tougher to own because of his average and his playing time. But in roto leagues, he should be owned in most 12 teamers and up. 

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On 6/1/2018 at 7:44 PM, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

.400 OBP, .981 OPS with 5 homers, 14 runs, 11 RBI's and 1 SB for the month of May in 62 official AB's. He gets too many days off for my liking but he's still on my teams. I find his multi eligibility useful when others sit and I'll take those numbers all day from a super sub. I wish he could get more playing time but it is what it is and he's serviceable for me in my leagues. If you're in a H2H he's tougher to own because of his average and his playing time. But in roto leagues, he should be owned in most 12 teamers and up. 

The decent (still not very good) May stats were the result of one big day against Cincy's horrible pitching staff.  Happ has slumped big-time since then so I can't say it was a sign of him coming out of his season long slump.  As peelpub correctly pointed out in March, the main problem is Happ is simply not a very good MLB player.  Picking Happ up when someone else dropped him in early May and having him on my roster the past 4 weeks was a bad and costly mistake by me.  Can only imagine how much he has killed owners who actually spent a top 150 pick on him!

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