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fletch44

Gregory Polanco 2018 Outlook

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He's been brutal for a while now. I was sure we had a breakout going on a few weeks ago. 

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19 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

He's been brutal for a while now. I was sure we had a breakout going on a few weeks ago. 

At what point do we give up on the inevitable polanco breakout? He has been in the league for 5 years now and hasn’t had a batting average over .258. He no longer has the steal potential he once did and what exactly is his homer upside? 25? I dropped him after a few weeks into the season when his hard hit rate started to normalize.

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1 hour ago, SuperJoint said:

He's been brutal for a while now. I was sure we had a breakout going on a few weeks ago. 

 

I feel like it looks like he's going to break out at the beginning of every year. At this point, I think this is just who he is. A guy who puts up middling stats. I was hoping he'd prove to be a useful post-hype guy, but it's looking more and more like he's replacement level.

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cleared waivers in 12 team ypro league (maybe some useful info)

had #1 waiver and didnt use it

 

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Careful fellas, polancos Mom follows this thread and she doesn’t like when we talk bad about her baby boy. Even if he is hot garbage.

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Classic run-rate guy.

 

The results are never there -- this is a career .249/.416/.403 hitter who's never hit above .258 in a season and has never had an OPS higher than .786 -- yet he's consistently drafted solely on potential.

 

If you did a blind test and showed someone who wasn't familiar with the player this guy's career numbers and then revealed his ADP they'd be dumbfounded.

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I think the hate in here is a little exaggerated, but everyone is entitled to their opinions.

 

Polanco has definitely morphed as a player this year. He seems to have become more selective and working deeper into counts and walking more, but because of this it has also elevated his K rate.

 

He's also hitting a ton more FBs and traded some line drives in the process. I think he has a legit shot at challenging 30HRs this year by doubling his barrel % from his best year in 2016, but that may come with a .240ishAVG. If you play points or OPS or OBP it is a whole lot more palatable with his 13.1% walk rate.

 

As long as he hasn't lost speed or the will to run his SBs should increase with OBP improvements as well. By years end will probably be one of his better or best seasons to date.

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Still only 26 years old. They can't all be instant studs out of the gate, especially those who battle the injury bug their first few years. April/May could turn out to be by far his worst months of the season so he could be one of the best buy-low players in the league this year. 

 

Look at Charlie Blackmon's career starting in his year-26 season if you need an example...he was "slightly above average" then according to many back then (2013) & look at him now. 

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Outside of batting average he really has not been terrible.

 

I would have patience.  

 

I don't own any shares so I am unbiased.

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He is getting everyday ABs against all pitcher types.  That is a positive.  

 

What I am really worried about is his drive to succeed and knowledge of the strike zone.  He is still terrible versus breaking balls, particularly in pitcher counts.  He is in danger of losing PT or being traded so the club can get an extended look at Osuna and Meadows.  Usually after around two months of stats I feel good enough with sample size to draw some early conclusions, given good health (which he has enjoyed).

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On 5/7/2018 at 4:02 AM, colepenhagen said:

cleared waivers in 12 team ypro league (maybe some useful info)

had #1 waiver and didnt use it

 

12 teams? Unowned? Top-25 OF?

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Think he's a pretty good buy low right now. I wrote on my blog about how the cold weather likely had a big impact on his April numbers. He's hitting the ball in the air a ton this year so that extra 10 or so feet would have helped a couple of hits drop in. Also wrote about how he's struggling on inside pitches, which might open him up to getting hit by pitches, which might end up injuring him. But with the Meadows call up and the low AVG, you might be able to get Polanco pretty cheap 

 

https://cannonballcorner.com/2018/05/19/gregory-polanco-is-just-warming-up/

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Polanco has been a buy low for the last 4 years. When do we finally accept the fact that his upside will never come to fruition. 

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12 minutes ago, Jimmymckrack said:

Polanco has been a buy low for the last 4 years. When do we finally accept the fact that his upside will never come to fruition. 

Still only 26 dude. 

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And that's why he's probably a good buy low... @Jimmymckrack

 

Considering he's healthy, has the highest OPS of his career, and has a .273/.379/.509 line in the month of May, now might not be the best time to give up on him.

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Polanco has been seeing the ball well (lots of walks creating a decent OBP even with the low BA), good power numbers, and even getting a few steals.  If he can get his BA up 30-40 points then he's going to be really, really good. 

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On 5/21/2018 at 1:03 PM, yankees77 said:

Polanco has been seeing the ball well (lots of walks creating a decent OBP even with the low BA), good power numbers, and even getting a few steals.  If he can get his BA up 30-40 points then he's going to be really, really good. 

Another positive note is that his babip is kind of low. .243 compared to his career .286 babip.

He's also hitting more flyballs than ever (53%) so as someone mentioned above once the weather warms up, some of those flyballs will turn into dingers.

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1 for his last 20 with 10 Ks. He's going to lose ABs  to Meadows if he doesn't turn it around.

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1 hour ago, kwelch said:

1 for his last 20 with 10 Ks. He's going to lose ABs  to Meadows if he doesn't turn it around.

 

This is what I fear and why I am trying to shop him now instead of waiting for his next "hot" streak to drive up his value a smidge. I own Meadows as well, so this situation is a double-edged sword. 

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It sounds like he's going to lose AB to Meadows no matter what. Huntington said that he sees this as a 4 OF situation, not a 4th OF situation, so im guessing Meadows is going to get plenty of PT. Polanco has been pretty horrible over the last week and a half/two weeks. Just losing out on too many good opportunities. He has 3 strikeouts after getting ahead 3-0 since 5-20

 

Polanco from 5-1 to 5-15:
13-40, .325/.417/.600, 2 HR, 12.5 BB%, 18.5 K%, .369 xwOBA

Polanco from 5-16 to 5-27:
3-35, .086/.220/.143, 0 HR, 12.2 BB%, 31.7 K%, .253 xwOBA

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Yup. Looks like Polanco is on the outside looking in of this 4 man OF situation until he picks it up or Meadows stops raking. Unfortunate. Not in the lineup again today.

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And Lester tomorrow... have to think he sits again. I'm starting to look for replacements in a 15-teamer. 

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