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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Just can't seem to get excited about this fella at his 3rd round pedigree, had some decent stats last season, but was beneficial due to his cheap price, now you're paying beyond retail for this guy

 

Not to be the broken record, but he was a top 10 RB after the bye (Weeks 11-17) and was so pretty easily. How is that “retail” or “beyond retail.”

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13 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Not to be the broken record, but he was a top 10 RB after the bye (Weeks 11-17) and was so pretty easily. How is that “retail” or “beyond retail.”

Past performance doesn't indicate future results. He had one good half a season and you're sold? Reminds me of the Cj Anderson situation a few years ago. If you can't see why some people are skeptical than I don't know what to tell you

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1 minute ago, hubbell525 said:

Past performance doesn't indicate future results. He had one good half a season and you're sold? Reminds me of the Cj Anderson situation a few years ago. If you can't see why some people are skeptical than I don't know what to tell you

 

When did I ever say I don’t understand being skeptical or don’t think there’s reason to doubt? He’s not my RB7. 

 

CJ Anderson is a terrrible case study on your behalf imo. That’s mostly an injury situation. I’m not saying he’s great. But he’s not an awful RB and is still a RB with a role on an offense three-four years later. That’s a long lucrative career for a RB. 

 

But that’s not the point. The argument was that you were paying above retail. The current ADP is just inside the top 40. CJA is also a bad case study because I remember him that year— his ADP was between 7-12. Not 36. 

 

That was my point. If you don’t believe he’s as good as I do, more power to you. But beteeen the pantheon of backs throughout the years like CJA that insert themselves at the end of the year and go off, Collins is relatively inexpensive. His ADP didn’t blow up to the first or second. In most leagues it’s 3rd to 4th. That’s a sizable difference. And between his performance and finish last year, I don’t agree “above retail” is a fair assessment. Because my perception of retail is usually based on the past, and based on the past I expected Collins ADP to inflate MORE not LESS after how well he and the Ravens finished last year with him pacing 300+ touches. 

 

Im not unreasonable. I just feel strongly. Don’t feel bad about it. 

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22 minutes ago, hubbell525 said:

Past performance doesn't indicate future results. He had one good half a season and you're sold? Reminds me of the Cj Anderson situation a few years ago. If you can't see why some people are skeptical than I don't know what to tell you

 

They’re Dixon owners?

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51 minutes ago, hubbell525 said:

Past performance doesn't indicate future results. He had one good half a season and you're sold? Reminds me of the Cj Anderson situation a few years ago. If you can't see why some people are skeptical than I don't know what to tell you

 

Are skeptical on Dion Lewis too? He's only had two good half a seasons.

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14 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Not to be the broken record, but he was a top 10 RB after the bye (Weeks 11-17) and was so pretty easily. How is that “retail” or “beyond retail.”

 

Heard it on a podcast, I think Harris Football, but Adrian Peterson was the #13 RB during the 6 weeks he played for Aizona. Don't get me wrong, I much rather have Collins, I just think being a top 8-20ish running back for a 6-8 week period isn't a crazy accomplishment.  I'm sure if you breakdown some random peroids last year, you'll see a bunch of jabronis who did well for a second. 

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8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Heard it on a podcast, I think Harris Football, but Adrian Peterson was the #13 RB during the 6 weeks he played for Aizona. Don't get me wrong, I much rather have Collins, I just think being a top 8-20ish running back for a 6-8 week period isn't a crazy accomplishment.  I'm sure if you breakdown some random peroids last year, you'll see a bunch of jabronis who did well for a second. 

 

Sure but you’re looking at one piece of my argument which is much bigger. For one I think the film is absolutely excellent. There’s also a difference between a prime age RB and an ancient one.

 

And just as a matter of fact, if I expected Peterson to maintain the volume he did in Arizona over the course of a season, your damn right he’d be a borderline RB2. I expect Collins to maintain the workload, which again has to do with those other factors, like the way the offense worked well with Collins as their RB, as cited by their move from 4-5 to 9-7 and narrowly missing the playoffs. 

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

They’re Dixon owners?

I'm sure Dixon owners have invested a TON in him this year.

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This has probably been said somewhere in here before but the thing that makes me most confident in Collins is how the Ravens didn't make a single move the entire offseason at the RB position. They had TWELVE draft picks in what was a pretty stacked RB class and didn't draft a single one. They signed 3 new receivers in free agency but not a single RB. And, on top of that the word out of Ravens camp has been that Dixon may not even make the final roster. Now, that may have changed after he had a solid showing a few nights ago, but, that was only because Collins was given a starters off-day which only shows even more confidence from the coaching staff. Maybe the Dixon truthers end up being right and Collins is a JAG. But, with all the positive signs I've seen that's a risk I'm willing to take at his current ADP. 

Edited by Ericc5
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22 hours ago, taobball said:

 

“Way too early” isn’t the reason that one random person from the internet does not support your claim. It’s not like writing on fbatasypros makes him an ESPN insider. I write for a similar site for baseball and trust me I’m not a custodial worker right now because I enjoy it. He makes some base points. But it’s msktly the equivalent of a long, well-thought out forum post. It doesn’t move the needle to me that one person put distinctors like “slow” on one and “quick and decisive on the other.”

 

I dont agree. This article has not changed me from not agreeing. It’s an article written by a person not some kind of Ravens top secret strategy. 

I've actually found that in some instances people like this actually have a better assessment of this stuff than the "experts", but I get what you're saying. This isn't insider info or anything like that.

 

21 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

Bizarre article.  Other than the fumble issue, there isn't much to the story.  At the same time, Dixon had a fumble issue in college as well.

 

He talks up Dixon at LA Tech like Collins went to scrub-U.   Collins had better numbers in the SEC the year they both came out.

 

The authors says this about Collins: "He won’t last 2018 as the main starter. He’s not a good/great feature back in the NFL. He’s a marginal talent (4.59 runner at 217 pounds at the NFL Combine) with all kinds of issues that started getting exposed as his 2017 mini-breakout season wore on."

 

Know what Dixon ran at the Combine?  4.58 at 215 Lb

 

The whole thing was incredibly unconvincing.  Dixon is a better pass catcher.........and that is about all that was valid.  Collins has managed to not get hurt and suspended too which should give him some leash.

I can't disagree with much of this, but Dixon's vertical was a foot higher than Collins, and his broad jump was as well. I'm not saying that means he's a better football player, but better athlete and better pass catcher I think we can all agree on. In terms of not getting suspended and particularly hurt, that is the biggest selling point for Collins. Just my opinion obviously, but zero question if Dixon has no suspensions and no injuries he's the clear number one here.

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15 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I can't disagree with much of this, but Dixon's vertical was a foot higher than Collins, and his broad jump was as well. I'm not saying that means he's a better football player, but better athlete and better pass catcher I think we can all agree on. In terms of not getting suspended and particularly hurt, that is the biggest selling point for Collins. Just my opinion obviously, but zero question if Dixon has no suspensions and no injuries he's the clear number one here.

 

Yes, I did notice the difference in measurables.  The author should have emphasized those instead of speed and production.  It could have at least given some food for thought.

 

It should be mentioned that Collins had some sort of headache issue at the combine, he didn't do the shuttle or 3 come drill due to it. I would have liked to have seen those numbers.  At his pro day he did positional drills and only the vertical, which he improved by 4 inches from 28.5 to 32.5. That would close the difference a bit with Dixon's 37.5.

 

I disagree with the Dixon being the clear #1.  Based on what? The coaching staff? I don't see a talent gap.  In addition to that, here is Dixon today:

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Sternes said:

I disagree with the Dixon being the clear #1.  Based on what? The coaching staff? I don't see a talent gap.  In addition to that, here is Dixon today:

 

This ultimately could be exactly why Collins ends up being what many in here believe he'll be, and Dixon will soon fizzle out of the league. Gotta be available. I do think if people in here are realistic with themselves, assuming (big if) Dixon is healthy this year, he's a huge threat to Collins.

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Just read he, tcoleman and ajayi are free agents after the season and typically teams have given impeding free agents big work loads so that's something to consider.

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1 hour ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I've actually found that in some instances people like this actually have a better assessment of this stuff than the "experts", but I get what you're saying. This isn't insider info or anything like that.

 

Yeah I don’t disagree there. I’m more reacting to how t seemed you were treating the piece kindve acting like it was a huge boon in your favor. To me that opinion is relevant, but not anymore so than a good number of users. 

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6 time pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda  and 2 time all pro played in 2 games last season.

 

he's back for his age 34 season.

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6 minutes ago, iphone said:

6 time pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda  and 2 time all pro played in 2 games last season.

 

he's back for his age 34 season.

 

They also got back Alex Lewis their other guard who missed all of last year with a shoulder issue.

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15 minutes ago, Tenner said:

Over-under 1100 | 300 | 8 total TDs?

Literally all depends on volume. If he came through with that stat line, he'd be a top 10 back

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26 minutes ago, Tenner said:

Over-under 1100 | 300 | 8 total TDs?

 

 

Those carries are unlikely, but not impossible. 

Number of players with over 300 carries per season

2017 - 0

2016 - 1

2015 - 2

2014 - 1

2013 - 1

2012 - 6

2011 - 1

2010 - 2

2009 - 4

2008 - 4

2007 - 1

2006 - 6

2005 - 8

2004 - 6

2003 - 9

2002 - 6

2001 - 4

2000 - 6

 

Also, assuming he got those carries, he'd probably lose his job the following year with that yardage total.  Going back to 1990 the worst YPC for a guy with over 300 carries was Ricky Williams at 3.50.  The next worst was Eddie George with 3.74.  Only 7 guys in that time frame out of 167 were below 4 YPC.  You are giving Collins a 3.67 YPC with that yardage and carry total which be the 2nd worst in that span.

 

I'd hope for a 1200/270/11 line.

 

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12 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

 

Those carries are unlikely, but not impossible. 

Number of players with over 300 carries per season

2017 - 0

2016 - 1

2015 - 2

2014 - 1

2013 - 1

2012 - 6

2011 - 1

2010 - 2

2009 - 4

2008 - 4

2007 - 1

2006 - 6

2005 - 8

2004 - 6

2003 - 9

2002 - 6

2001 - 4

2000 - 6

 

Also, assuming he got those carries, he'd probably lose his job the following year with that yardage total.  Going back to 1990 the worst YPC for a guy with over 300 carries was Ricky Williams at 3.50.  The next worst was Eddie George with 3.74.  Only 7 guys in that time frame out of 167 were below 4 YPC.  You are giving Collins a 3.67 YPC with that yardage and carry total which be the 2nd worst in that span.

 

I'd hope for a 1200/270/11 line.

 

I dont thi k he was trying to say 300 carries, I think he was saying 1100 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and 8 total TD's.

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I meant to indicate that the 300 is receiving yards. 

 

I bring it it up because I just can’t see him getting 1400 yards of total offense and being a guy who gets close 10 tds. 

 

However, when you look at his production last year, and extend it to 16 games started....that’s where he is at, approximately. 

 

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4 hours ago, Sternes said:

 

They also got back Alex Lewis their other guard who missed all of last year with a shoulder issue.

 

 Both excellent points.   People seem to overlook the fact that O-Lines can change (both for the good or bad) quite a bit from the end of one season to the start of the 

next.   Not just injury wise, but contract squabbles, free agency, etc etc.     

 

 it APPEARS that the Ravens OL will outperform last seasons group significantly.   more reasons to like Collins higher ranking than the public perception

 

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6 hours ago, Mr-Slip said:

 

 Both excellent points.   People seem to overlook the fact that O-Lines can change (both for the good or bad) quite a bit from the end of one season to the start of the 

next.   Not just injury wise, but contract squabbles, free agency, etc etc.     

 

 it APPEARS that the Ravens OL will outperform last seasons group significantly.   more reasons to like Collins higher ranking than the public perception

 

Very good point...the same can be said for the Giants situation.  Anyone who keeps referencing how horrible the Giants "are" haven't been paying attention to OL upgrades and the return of healthy players since last year.

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One thing I've noticed about these boards is that people tend to get hung up on certain players. 99% of the time these are players with talent, but have never actually proved that they can capitalize on it or make any kind of impact. Kenneth Dixon seems to be one of these players. I get the thought process, I really do, but how long are we going to wait on this guy? To this point, Dixon has shown no ability to stay on the field long enough to pose a playing time threat.

 

I realize that he's talented, but NFL coaches simply don't always play the most talented player. We've seen it a million times, and for a million different reasons. How are we even confident that Dixon is more talented than Collins? To this point, we have very little to give us that impression, and Dixon is already having a hard time staying on the field for practices. 

 

Collins is a no brainer pick for me this season. In my 10 team home league, I was able to get him in the 5th round, sandwiched in between Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake. Just looking at his stats from last year, he averaged 16 carries a game from week 6 on, and in that time ran for 712 yards with 6 TDs. He's not a huge receiving threat, but he added almost 200 yards receiving. If you also break down the tape, Collins passed the eye test with ease, showing great vision and solid wiggle.

 

Those stats extrapolate to around 1300 all purpose yards and 8 scores for 178 standard fantasy points. That would put him right around last year's top 10. All of that in a year where the Ravens offense was pretty dismal, their OLine was hurt, and he was still adjusting to owning a starting position. 

 

Now let's factor in a healthier OLine, a full preseason and training camp as the lead back, and no established threat to his goal line or early down work. Yes, some backs will take receiving work from him, but how many backs in the league don't have the same threat? None that you're taking outside of the first two rounds. 

 

To me, Collins has easy top 12 upside and a safe top 20 floor. If he falls anywhere in between that 12-20 range, I'm perfectly happy to have as my RB2. 

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