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Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

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6 hours ago, FlashGordon401 said:

This year’s Isaiah Crowell.

 

I’ll place a bet with you on this. No lie. Collins numbers this season are better than crowells from last. Direct message me if interested. 

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6 hours ago, FlashGordon401 said:

This year’s Isaiah Crowell.

 

 

which year Crowell?

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7 hours ago, FlashGordon401 said:

This year’s Isaiah Crowell.

 

 

Could be but I expect Baltimore to be a 7-10 win team again, so a solid amount of neutral/positive game scripts for Collins.

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19 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

which year Crowell?

This.  If we're talking 2016 Crowell with 1300 total yards and 7 tds, sign me up.

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Not yet but he will definitely play in this week's regular season dress rehearsal.

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I really don't know what to make of him at this point. Collins was really good last year once he took over, but the sample is kinda small. I can literally see him having 1200 + 400 + 8-10 TDs, and at the same time think he could totally flop and being replaced by week 4 or 5.  One thing I do know, is that if I end up with Collins on any of my teams, I will absolutely make sure I draft Kenneth Dixon (or Allen) as insurance.  

 

In one league I'm considering a no RC strategy with my first 2 to 3 picks, so this guy is on my radar.

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21 hours ago, Chardo said:

 

which year Crowell?

Pretty sure he is referencing how the Crow got overhyped and drafted in the third last year.

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A running back that isn't all that great but in part due to situation got fed the ball a lot. Due to this, he had a few big games and because people are desperate for RBs rises to the 3rd round and above.

 

Guys like Z. Stacey, Crowell, CJA, Forsett, M. Ball, Ellington, and a bunch of others follow the same path as above. At least Collins didn't rise into the second round but no thanks. 

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My favorite part is how everyone that isn't a fan of Collins at his ADP is somehow a Dixon supporter. I don't give a damn about Dixon. Could the reason be that maybe, just maybe, a solid half of a season doesn't make you a 3rd round value? 

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24 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

A running back that isn't all that great but in part due to situation got fed the ball a lot. Due to this, he had a few big games and because people are desperate for RBs rises to the 3rd round and above.

 

Guys like Z. Stacey, Crowell, CJA, Forsett, M. Ball, Ellington, and a bunch of others follow the same path as above. At least Collins didn't rise into the second round but no thanks. 

The arguement is that he actually is a talented pure runner though. His name just isn't sexy so you assume he's just a JAG with volume. Most of those names were not as good pure runners as Collins.

 

Crowells problem last year was 90% situational. Funny thing, being 0-16 is not good for a RBs chances for TDs and total carries as a bell cow(he still had a YPC over 4 last year). Who would have thought?

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On ‎8‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 2:12 PM, dicka24 said:

I really don't know what to make of him at this point. Collins was really good last year once he took over, but the sample is kinda small. I can literally see him having 1200 + 400 + 8-10 TDs, and at the same time think he could totally flop and being replaced by week 4 or 5.  One thing I do know, is that if I end up with Collins on any of my teams, I will absolutely make sure I draft Kenneth Dixon (or Allen) as insurance.  

 

In one league I'm considering a no RC strategy with my first 2 to 3 picks, so this guy is on my radar.

So Dixon or Allen.  Allen appears like a safer bet.

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47 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

My favorite part is how everyone that isn't a fan of Collins at his ADP is somehow a Dixon supporter. I don't give a damn about Dixon. Could the reason be that maybe, just maybe, a solid half of a season doesn't make you a 3rd round value? 

Joe Mixon hasn't had a solid half of a season and he's drafted in the 3rd if not the 2nd. Collins seems like a safe(r) bet to me. 

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I love collins

hes one of the most fun players to watch... he’s so fast, dude looks like on a mission and cant be late..

guys around him seems in other speed..

 

i dont know why so much hate.. if he holds on to the ball he’ll be a valuable peace of any team.. im picking where i can

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29 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

The arguement is that he actually is a talented pure runner though. His name just isn't sexy so you assume he's just a JAG with volume. Most of those names were not as good pure runners as Collins.

 

Crowells problem last year was 90% situational. Funny thing, being 0-16 is not good for a RBs chances for TDs and total carries as a bell cow(he still had a YPC over 4 last year). Who would have thought?

His name isn't sexy? What kind of claim is that. I own Howard and Miller this year, owned Gore almost every season toward the end of his career, and etc. I target players that aren't flashy every year. Those players tend to be proven guys that for some reason are under ranked. Collins doesn't fit that mold. 

 

9 minutes ago, Gandalfthecat said:

Joe Mixon hasn't had a solid half of a season and he's drafted in the 3rd if not the 2nd. Collins seems like a safe(r) bet to me. 

What does that have to do with Collins? It's not like you have to take one if you don't take the other one. However, since you brought it up, Mixon is a better all around player. Collins may be safer but people draft Mixon for his upside.

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19 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

[Assistant Coach content removed]

 

I just don't expect a strong 2018 from him.  He's slow.  He falls forward good.  He fights for positive yards.  Toward the 2nd half of the season he started finding the end zone.  I hate how much Javorious Allen cuts into his touches and now Dixon is here to fight with as well.  I am struggling, but can't get excited about him.

 

What is it that you guys that like him like about him?

 

I mean I think the whole problem is that you've sold him short by line two. Not even "he's slow," but "he falls forward good." There's a difference between being a big back and being a back who actually uses leverage/quickness/strength/balance to dodge tackles. I've gone over it numerous times, but he reminds me a TON of Marshawn Lynch because they both just seem to run with an excellent center of gravity and the ability to keep balanced and on their feet when they absorb contact. I think Balance is maybe the most important thing a back can have when it comes to transferring "Strength" to "Power." I think Collins has among the best in the NFL.

 

I also think people vastly oversell the role of Dixon and Allen. He didn't find the endzone more at the end because he just fell into it, he found the end zone more because after the bye they implemented Collins as essentially the main focal point of the offense. Post bye (a split I've gone over a  lot) he paced 272 Carries and 46 Receptions. 

 

What's more, you talk about Buck Allen. People completely are unaware apparently of how much Buck Allen got phased out after the Bye. Buck Allen had 7 Receptions in 7 Games. Yes he got some action on the carry as a COP too, but he did not get in the way after the Bye of Collins having an RB1 workload. 

 

As I've also brought up, the Ravens in those 7 games went from 4-5 to 9-7, and while their 5-2 stretch wasn't enough to get them into the playoffs, they were preetty damn close. Alex Collins was a massive part of that. And they lost those two games by a total of I believe 5 or 6 points. 

 

My belief that the Ravens see Collins as the most essential part of their offense was pretty much solidified when Harbaugh benched him for the preseason and said that he wanted to put guys in the right place to make sure that the taem can win football games week one. Translation: No injury f***s this team more than Alex Collins right now. I don't think it's far fetched at all right now to think that the Ravens perceive Collins is perhaps more essential to them winning games than Joe Flacco. 

 

Had a 4.6 YPC with a trash interior OL. Gets a HOF Guard in Marshall Yanda back. I think he sees 260-270 Carries and 35-45 Receptions and is efficient as a Goal Line Back. 

 

Maybe I'm wrong. I think this offense is going to flow THROUGH Alex Collins a LOT more than people anticipate. I think he's far more of an essential piece than a contributing element, like most people seem to have him dubbed. Every Ravens fan I talk to seems to think he has the potential to be a bellcow that helps win the team games. The obsession for Dixon seems like misplaced fawning over a lost-sleeper-love. Not saying he won't get carries. Teams rush 400 Times. That leaves 130-140. But to me, the defining element of this offense is that it's going to be the Alex Collins show in Baltimore. 

 

That's just my 2 c's and why I like him. I have very few players on multiple teams between my three leagues. Corey Davis and Alex Colilns are two of them. They aren't even close. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed reference to AC content.
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[Assistant Coach question removed.  "I'm being offered Player A at price X and would have to drop Player B to keep him" is not generally applicable information that belongs in a player's outlook thread.]

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On 8/27/2018 at 2:09 PM, Gohawks said:

A running back that isn't all that great but in part due to situation got fed the ball a lot.

 

On 8/27/2018 at 3:05 PM, lolcopter said:

Allen is trash

 

collinss.0.gif

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On 8/27/2018 at 3:19 PM, Gohawks said:

My favorite part is how everyone that isn't a fan of Collins at his ADP is somehow a Dixon supporter. I don't give a damn about Dixon. Could the reason be that maybe, just maybe, a solid half of a season doesn't make you a 3rd round value? 

 

No, and I apologize if that is coming from my influence. I will say as someone who was on the Alex Collins hype train back when it wasn't popular and his ADP was late-4th, I had more conversations where I was defending Collins than most people have, and the vast majority of the time Dixon is used as a primary obstacle, and I simply believe that people who are INFATUATED, not like, but are INFATUATED, with Dixon are borderline delusional. Simply because you're ignoring the reality of what the last two years and his entire career have been. Like the amount of times I hear that "Dixon was a highly drafted player"... who went in the Supplemental 4th, or essentially the difference between pick 134 and 171 (Collins). 

 

And if I thought Collins was solid, I'd agree with you. But I don't. I don't believe that he was solid. I think he showed a better pure run / non-pass/pass-catching running game than all but the smallest number of running backs last year. I think he's a monster between the tackles and I don't personally believe that I felt the same way about the members of your list. And some of those names don't fairly represent Collins' situation. Ellington was too small and a COP. Forsett was 29. CJA has battled constant injuries. You're right, Stacy is the cautionary tale, but I think Collins' tape and situation is better than Stacy's was. I think Collins is a hell of a lot better than solid. 

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On 8/23/2018 at 7:52 AM, adifazio27 said:

Collins is a no brainer pick for me this season [...] Collins passed the eye test with ease, showing great vision and solid wiggle.

 

Agreed, and his price is not over-inflated.

 

He passed the eye-test in Arkansas

 

aktd.0.gif

 

He passed the eye-test in Baltimore

 

alex.0.gif

 

And it's the blind who help to keep his ADP reasonable.

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The main knock against Collins was fumbles.  Last year Collins was a better pass catcher than Allen but he had a problem putting the ball on the ground.

 

Hopefully Collins has had the reps this offseason to clean it up.

 

I think Collins has the higher floor than Mixon.  I’d rank him closer to Howard, I like both... I don’t think you have to reach, grab either that falls to you in the 3rd.  I think Howard is safer, but Collins might have more upside because he’s a better receiver.  Both are ascending offenses.

 

Dixon is a wildcard, but Collins has earned the starting job.  If Collins starts fumbling it would be worth picking up Dixon, but that’s something to follow during the season. 

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Always seems to come down to a decision between Collins, Drake, and McKinnon. Even in non-ppr I'm still ranking McCaffrey ahead of him, then McCoy, [those 3], then mixon, Miller، Henry...

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