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David Johnson 2018 Outlook

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tonycpsu

[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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DJ fell to me at #5 in my draft last night due to Saquon being taken #4. Obviously I should be ecstatic. But talk me off the ledge of being terrified of this Offense & OL. It’s just so hard to be an RB stud behind a bad OL on a bad offense.

 

But he’s obviously a fantastic talent and I had to take him when he fell to me. Didn’t research his situation hardly at all for this year because I just didn’t expect him to fall to me. Obviously he’s the bell cow which is huge value in and of itself. Anything I’m missing about the quality of this offense (other than the bump they get for DJ playing this year)?

Edited by ff062018

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44 minutes ago, ff062018 said:

DJ fell to me at #5 in my draft last night due to Saquon being taken #4. Obviously I should be ecstatic. But talk me off the ledge of being terrified of this Offense & OL. It’s just so hard to be an RB stud behind a bad OL on a bad offense.

 

But he’s obviously a fantastic talent and I had to take him when he fell to me. Didn’t research his situation hardly at all for this year because I just didn’t expect him to fall to me. Obviously he’s the bell cow which is huge value in and of itself. Anything I’m missing about the quality of this offense (other than the bump they get for DJ playing this year)?

He worked behind a poor line a couple years ago when he had that fantastic season. Also, if it’s a PPR league, his receptions will give you a very nice weekly floor. If he stays healthy he should have a great year again. You’ll be good, nice pick. 

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1 hour ago, ff062018 said:

DJ fell to me at #5 in my draft last night due to Saquon being taken #4. Obviously I should be ecstatic. But talk me off the ledge of being terrified of this Offense & OL. It’s just so hard to be an RB stud behind a bad OL on a bad offense.

 

But he’s obviously a fantastic talent and I had to take him when he fell to me. Didn’t research his situation hardly at all for this year because I just didn’t expect him to fall to me. Obviously he’s the bell cow which is huge value in and of itself. Anything I’m missing about the quality of this offense (other than the bump they get for DJ playing this year)?

Same exact situation here and I’m not gonna lose my sleep over it. I had him last year too and you know what happened. 

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4 hours ago, ff062018 said:

DJ fell to me at #5 in my draft last night due to Saquon being taken #4. Obviously I should be ecstatic. But talk me off the ledge of being terrified of this Offense & OL. It’s just so hard to be an RB stud behind a bad OL on a bad offense.

 

But he’s obviously a fantastic talent and I had to take him when he fell to me. Didn’t research his situation hardly at all for this year because I just didn’t expect him to fall to me. Obviously he’s the bell cow which is huge value in and of itself. Anything I’m missing about the quality of this offense (other than the bump they get for DJ playing this year)?

 

I think I'd be more worried about him, and actually move him down in a non-PPR league myself.  Assuming PPR I believe you made the right choice.

 

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For those that know more about offensive lines than I do, how much worse is the Arizona line compared to Dallas' after their recent injuries?  

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35 minutes ago, SvanE42 said:

For those that know more about offensive lines than I do, how much worse is the Arizona line compared to Dallas' after their recent injuries?  

It’s a really tough question. The center is almost the QB of the line. The importance of the position cannot be understated. Meanwhile, the Cardinals line has looked better than a lot of people expected. 

 

Still, Cowboys are better assuming Zack Martin is healthy. I wouldn’t say the gap is as significant as some may think.

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I’ll be taking Johnson first overall with confidence. The reasoning is as follows:

 

All the problems on the Cardinals are overstated. First, the coach. Yes, he may not be as offensive minded as Arians but a defensive minded coach would want to establish the run. Hell, he already stated that himself:

 

“As a defensive coordinator, there’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than being able to run the ball,” Wilks said. “I mean, you’re talking about taking the air out of an individual, so that’s going to be our premise.”

 

Next is the offense. The line isn’t as nearly as bad as some may claim. Granted, injury is a concern but in Johnson’s historic season the line was horrible and banged up. He already performed with a terrible line. As for QB, a healthy Bradford is a very good QB. Key word is healthy but even if (more than likely when) he goes down a rookie will lean on Johnson. 

 

I maintain the opinion that Johnson is the most talented RB in the game. Bell doesn’t have his power and he’s the only one that comes close in terms of receiving. IF the line stays healthy and IF Bradford stays healthy he is going to shatter records. The reality is, that isn’t very likely to happen. So you’ll just have to settle for 1,200/12 on the ground and 70/750/6. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

I’ll be taking Johnson first overall with confidence. The reasoning is as follows:

 

All the problems on the Cardinals are overstated. First, the coach. Yes, he may not be as offensive minded as Arians but a defensive minded coach would want to establish the run. Hell, he already stated that himself:

 

“As a defensive coordinator, there’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than being able to run the ball,” Wilks said. “I mean, you’re talking about taking the air out of an individual, so that’s going to be our premise.”

 

Next is the offense. The line isn’t as nearly as bad as some may claim. Granted, injury is a concern but in Johnson’s historic season the line was horrible and banged up. He already performed with a terrible line. As for QB, a healthy Bradford is a very good QB. Key word is healthy but even if (more than likely when) he goes down a rookie will lean on Johnson. 

 

I maintain the opinion that Johnson is the most talented RB in the game. Bell doesn’t have his power and he’s the only one that comes close in terms of receiving. IF the line stays healthy and IF Bradford stays healthy he is going to shatter records. The reality is, that isn’t very likely to happen. So you’ll just have to settle for 1,200/12 on the ground and 70/750/6. 

 

I think 1200 may be high, considering his situation, but I agree with you in general. I'd have him at closer to 1000 Rushing, but mostly right there on everything else, other than I'm also not optimistic in his chances for 18 TDs on what I presume to be a potentially worse offense then what he had in 2018. 

 

Still, these things don't deter me from taking him in the top 4. 

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17 hours ago, ff062018 said:

DJ fell to me at #5 in my draft last night due to Saquon being taken #4. Obviously I should be ecstatic. But talk me off the ledge of being terrified of this Offense & OL. It’s just so hard to be an RB stud behind a bad OL on a bad offense.

 

But he’s obviously a fantastic talent and I had to take him when he fell to me. Didn’t research his situation hardly at all for this year because I just didn’t expect him to fall to me. Obviously he’s the bell cow which is huge value in and of itself. Anything I’m missing about the quality of this offense (other than the bump they get for DJ playing this year)?

 

I wouldn't be concerned at all. I think you stole him at 5. He's good enough that he will put up numbers in any offense or situation. The only things that can stop him is injury or coaching.

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19 hours ago, ff062018 said:

DJ fell to me at #5 in my draft last night due to Saquon being taken #4. Obviously I should be ecstatic. But talk me off the ledge of being terrified of this Offense & OL. It’s just so hard to be an RB stud behind a bad OL on a bad offense.

 

But he’s obviously a fantastic talent and I had to take him when he fell to me. Didn’t research his situation hardly at all for this year because I just didn’t expect him to fall to me. Obviously he’s the bell cow which is huge value in and of itself. Anything I’m missing about the quality of this offense (other than the bump they get for DJ playing this year)?

Shady produced with a crap line and crap offense last season and DJ is currently better than Shady but similar in style.  The offense is going to run through DJ, he's gonna get the ball 300+ times and he's got the talent to make things happen regardless of what the rest of the team is doing around him.

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15 hours ago, Damn Yankee said:

 

I think I'd be more worried about him, and actually move him down in a non-PPR league myself.  Assuming PPR I believe you made the right choice.

 

 

Unfortunstely it’s non-PPR. But after having a day to think about it, I’m quite happy he fell to me and I took him over AB. Let’s roll!!

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1 hour ago, ff062018 said:

 

Unfortunstely it’s non-PPR. But after having a day to think about it, I’m quite happy he fell to me and I took him over AB. Let’s roll!!

 

I got him at 5 as well in but in a full point PPR, pretty amped about it, not worried about his situation really. hes a stud, don't overthink the situation. I still believe hes a threat for 1000/1000.

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A workhorse back with no backup competition is rare these days.  Draft with confidence! 

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I’ll be taking Johnson first overall with confidence. The reasoning is as follows:

 

All the problems on the Cardinals are overstated. First, the coach. Yes, he may not be as offensive minded as Arians but a defensive minded coach would want to establish the run. Hell, he already stated that himself:

 

“As a defensive coordinator, there’s nothing more demoralizing to a team than being able to run the ball,” Wilks said. “I mean, you’re talking about taking the air out of an individual, so that’s going to be our premise.”

 

Next is the offense. The line isn’t as nearly as bad as some may claim. Granted, injury is a concern but in Johnson’s historic season the line was horrible and banged up. He already performed with a terrible line. As for QB, a healthy Bradford is a very good QB. Key word is healthy but even if (more than likely when) he goes down a rookie will lean on Johnson. 

 

I maintain the opinion that Johnson is the most talented RB in the game. Bell doesn’t have his power and he’s the only one that comes close in terms of receiving. IF the line stays healthy and IF Bradford stays healthy he is going to shatter records. The reality is, that isn’t very likely to happen. So you’ll just have to settle for 1,200/12 on the ground and 70/750/6. 

I agree with you on the O-line- the return of Iupati at guard really helps them.  Both DJ and Bradford have recognized him as a standout performer, and PFF gave him the highest player grade--albeit in preseason--in the league.

 

I disagree about Bell, but I'm a Steelers fan so not exactly unbiased.  DJ is more athletic than Bell and probably has stronger legs in the weight room, but for whatever reason his athleticism doesn't always translate to running well between the tackles.

 

My biggest concerns with DJ revolved around how he would adjust to running behind a fullback, and whether or not his run-first head coach would utilize him correctly in the passing game.  So far, so good with the FB, and McCoy should neutralize any tendency Wilks may have had to waste DJs talents on old-school smash mouth football.  So long as the Cardinals continue to utilize him like Kamara (but with more volume) and not AD, all will be well.

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3 hours ago, ff062018 said:

 

Unfortunstely it’s non-PPR. But after having a day to think about it, I’m quite happy he fell to me and I took him over AB. Let’s roll!!

 

Well...I believe he has value over AB in a non-PPR for sure so rock on!  Good Luck!

 

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On 8/28/2018 at 2:35 AM, Gohawks said:

It’s a really tough question. The center is almost the QB of the line. The importance of the position cannot be understated. Meanwhile, the Cardinals line has looked better than a lot of people expected. 

 

Still, Cowboys are better assuming Zack Martin is healthy. I wouldn’t say the gap is as significant as some may think.

The appeal of Zeke over Johnson lies in there being a SIGNIFICANT gap. Compromise that aspect of Zeke's game, and I am revising my rankings and putting DJ ahead of him, contrary to my last post in the thread.

 

Furthermore...DJ's role in the passing game is secure. Zeke's role in the passing game "should" get better. I'm not trusting this unimaginative coaching staff with that "should."


Furthermore still...Larry Fitz is old...but still must be accounted for, and though he's not a field-stretcher any more, he will make you pay if you ignore him. Playing D against Dallas is a simple "I dare you to pass, we're loading the box all day," situation.

 

At #3 in .5 ppr...drafting tonight...I am taking DJ over Zeke. 

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34 minutes ago, Proteus said:

The appeal of Zeke over Johnson lies in there being a SIGNIFICANT gap. Compromise that aspect of Zeke's game, and I am revising my rankings and putting DJ ahead of him, contrary to my last post in the thread.

 

Furthermore...DJ's role in the passing game is secure. Zeke's role in the passing game "should" get better. I'm not trusting this unimaginative coaching staff with that "should."


Furthermore still...Larry Fitz is old...but still must be accounted for, and though he's not a field-stretcher any more, he will make you pay if you ignore him. Playing D against Dallas is a simple "I dare you to pass, we're loading the box all day," situation.

 

At #3 in .5 ppr...drafting tonight...I am taking DJ over Zeke. 

Yeah I'm definitely taking DJ over Zeke, he's been an elite producer when healthy even with a wanting line and offense. Zeke's line could be a huge dropoff from last year if they are missing 3(!) guys from their starters last season.

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21 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

Yeah I'm definitely taking DJ over Zeke, he's been an elite producer when healthy even with a wanting line and offense. Zeke's line could be a huge dropoff from last year if they are missing 3(!) guys from their starters last season.

And even if Zeke can overcome that as a pure runner, Dak under a dogpile and no reliable targets is going to make for ridiculously tough sledding. 

 

I am a Dallas fan and I hope I’m proven wrong, but these are the hairs to split when drafting.

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taking him over bell at 2 if gurley goes one. .5 ppr. people forget DJ was #1 2 years removed from last years freak injury which was just to the wrist and nothing else that was severe that hampers his running abilities.

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3 minutes ago, BigBenTheSteelerMan said:

He broke his ball holding wrist and if Bradford goes down then the cards have no one

I’ve read this post at least 5 times and still don’t have a single clue what it is saying.

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1 minute ago, BigBenTheSteelerMan said:

Is the fact that they haven't agreed on a contract yet worrying anyone?

No. Unlike Bell Johnson isn’t a petty diva.

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