FlashGordon401

Melvin Gordon 2018 Outlook

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47 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Is Ekeler the clear cuff?  I don't know anything about Jackson. 

 

If MG were to miss time, would this turn into a split RBBC?

I believe it is Ekeler right now. He was getting hyped at the end of last year and I even picked him up for my playoff run as insurance behind Gordon.  

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On 6/12/2018 at 9:02 PM, Mr2Saint said:

I would not hesitate to draft Gordon as high as 1.06 this season.

 

I was going to say, anyone else think people are really sleeping on Gordon this year? Consistently ranked around 10-14th overall depending on where you look. Kind of crazy if you ask me. 1000+ yards and 12 TDs in each of the last two seasons. He continues to progress in the passing game.

 

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Ekeler saw at least 25% of snaps from weeks 7-13  (7 games). MG3 still piled up 18.6 carries per game during that span. A bigger issue was his receptions dropped to 2.1 per game. In the 9 other weeks of the season, MG3 averaged 17.1 carries and 4.8 receptions per game. So, workload wise MG3 was just fine, but Ekeler's emergence was a throw-back to the Danny Woodhead days where MG3's pass-protection was shown as a clear issue to the Chargers. The Tweets above by NYR Fan would back these thoughts up.

 

With Hunter Henry gone, it makes sense that Rivers will rely more on rb's in the short passing game. So, is MG3 the guy to rack up another 50+ catches and take on that role, or does Austin Ekeler limit Melvin to another 30-35 catch pace? This could be the difference between Melvin challenging the top 5 rb status vs low-end rb1. 

 

Either way, given the amount of carries he will likely see + goal line, there should be no debate on him being a clear rb1. There are 7 rb's I'd take ahead of him, but if I'm drafting in the pick 10-12 range and MG3 ends up my rb1, I'm just fine with that.

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2 hours ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

 

Thanks for reminding me why Lamar Miller will be an RB1 this year ?

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8 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Thanks for reminding me why Lamar Miller will be an RB1 this year ?

 

More like why that list means nothing regarding fantasy value.  Wanna bet Miller will outscore Gordon this year?

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3 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

More like why that list means nothing regarding fantasy value.  Wanna bet Miller will outscore Gordon this year?

 

I expect Miller to be an RB1. Whether Gordon remains one is a different issue.

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51 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I expect Miller to be an RB1. Whether Gordon remains one is a different issue.

 

Nice dodge.  I doubt you'll be singing the same tune by the end of the season

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6 hours ago, kdko said:

 

Nice dodge.  I doubt you'll be singing the same tune by the end of the season

 

I'll be here

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Won't argue the merits of Gordon v. Miller, but a blown pass block rate of 7.2% is pretty bad. I was really surprised by Frank Gore's rate. I have always thought of him as pretty solid in pass protection.

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On 7/21/2018 at 1:47 PM, daethfromabove1979 said:

Have the Chargers made any upgrades on the O line? I feel like they were pretty bad last year and it led to a lot of zero or negative gains for Gordon. 

 

They signed a 3x Pro Bowl Center in Mike Pouncey in Free Agency. Add him with Okung at LT, and a healthy Forrest Lamp, who missed his entire rookie season, and this line has the making of a top 10 unit.

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1 hour ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

They signed a 3x Pro Bowl Center in Mike Pouncey in Free Agency. Add him with Okung at LT, and a healthy Forrest Lamp, who missed his entire rookie season, and this line has the making of a top 10 unit.

Solid addition on the off chance he stays healthy lol. Lamp should be an immediate upgrade at G though, wish he was healthy last year as a gordon Owner 

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On 7/21/2018 at 9:46 AM, mbroo5880i said:

Won't argue the merits of Gordon v. Miller, but a blown pass block rate of 7.2% is pretty bad. I was really surprised by Frank Gore's rate. I have always thought of him as pretty solid in pass protection.

 

He's 95 years old lol. He isn't much worse than average but yeah that is why I've always heard he's still so wanted

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1 hour ago, TPowell said:

He's 95 years old lol

I remember when Gore vs Bush was a headline in the NFL. I must be 115 at least.

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I think Fournette has way more upside than Gordon, but his ankle just poses too much of a risk to me for the range he is going in.  Gordon's inefficiency has always bothered me but the Chargers are really primed for a great year imo even after the loss of HH and Verrett.  

 

I'm drafting from the #8 spot in PPR and I anticipate all of the big RBs to be gone so I'm looking at Hopkins or Gordon.  I think Hopkins is the obvious choice but I really don't like the RB choices in the second round (Freeman).  Mixon and Howard are moving up and up so I may not even get the shot at one of them in the 3rd round.  Seems like a 1st round RB is the best shot at a bell cow from the #8-10 spot 

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On 7/21/2018 at 1:34 AM, kdko said:

 

Nice dodge.  I doubt you'll be singing the same tune by the end of the season

 

I don’t do much defending of established members like Joshua, but I don’t think it’s very “dodgy” to say that you think Lamar Miller, ranked passed #70 in ESPN leagues, is an RB1, but not wanting to make a remark specifically about Gordon. Dudes taking a damn aggressive stance... one I’ve seen in a multitude of threads... he doesn’t need to make it more specific by comparing Miller to Gordon. It’s like he’s on a limb at the edge of a cliff and you’re asking why he doesn’t take another step... Miller as an RB1 is bold enough to stand on its own.

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Can someone who’s watched a lot of him answer if he’s actually a good running back? I know he was a highly drafted for an RB and has been playing behind some pretty awful lines. But, to not break 4 YPC in 3 years is definitely concerning. I think he’ll be an RB1 just based on volume and TDs but I would be a lot more excited about him if someone could convince me he’s ACTUALLY a good running back.

Edited by BearDownBears

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17 minutes ago, BearDownBears said:

I think he’ll be an RB1 just based on volume and TDs but I would be a lot more excited about him if someone could convince me he’s ACTUALLY a good running back.

 

In Fantasy Football, does it matter if he's "ACTUALLY a good running back"?

 

Volume and TDs are all that matter and Gordon's a lock for both.

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19 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

In Fantasy Football, does it matter if he's "ACTUALLY a good running back"?

 

Volume and TDs are all that matter and Gordon's a lock for both.

Of course is matters. If a guy is locked into say 300 carries wouldn't you rather him average 4.5 YPC than 3.9 YPC? That's an extra 330 yards right there. Along with the fact that his inefficiency certainly played some role into Ekeler biting into his workload for a decent stretch towards the end of the season. I think his volume and the offense he is in sets his floor relatively high but, if he can make a jump forward in terms of efficiency an RB #1 finish is not out of the question. I just want to know if I should be expecting some sort of jump or after 3 years it is what it is with him. 

Edited by BearDownBears

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2 minutes ago, BearDownBears said:

Of course is matters. If a guy is locked into say 300 carries wouldn't you rather him average 4.5 YPC than 3.9 YPC? That's an extra 330 yards right there. Along with the fact that his inefficiency certainly played some role into Ekeler biting into his workload for a decent stretch towards the end of the season. I think his volume and the offense he is in sets his floor relatively high but, if he can make a jump forward in terms of efficiency an RB #1 finish is not out of the question. I just want to know if I should be expecting some sort of jump or after 3 years it is what it is with him. 

 

I would draft him with confidence, and not regret it for a second. Improved o-line. Lock for goal line duties. Loss of Henry probably equates to more dump offs. Enjoy.

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1 hour ago, BearDownBears said:

Can someone who’s watched a lot of him answer if he’s actually a good running back? I know he was a highly drafted for an RB and has been playing behind some pretty awful lines. But, to not break 4 YPC in 3 years is definitely concerning. I think he’ll be an RB1 just based on volume and TDs but I would be a lot more excited about him if someone could convince me he’s ACTUALLY a good running back.

 

Just my 2 cents... 

 

Fantasy productivity is about talent and situation. 

 

Coming out I thought he was overdrafted and was a typical overhyped Wisconsin RB. 

 

I definitely thought he was good, just not top 15 good at a time when RB's were rarely going first round anymore. 

 

I still stand by this though. I think he's good not great. 

 

Last year though when Anthony Lynn became the head coach I said I wanted everything to do with him at this point. 

 

Anthony Lynn, former RB, former RB's coach, believes in power running and feature backs. 

 

If Gordon was the RB for almost any other NFL team he'd be an easy pass for me, but he's not. He's the RB of the chargers under Anthony Lynn and is in a very great situation. 

 

Going into 2018 he is currently healthy, in great shape, playing behind an improved line, and playing under Anthony Lynn. Bottom line... I'm backing him again in 2018 and will work to get him on my squads regardless of me only believing he is good and not great. 

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1 hour ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

In Fantasy Football, does it matter if he's "ACTUALLY a good running back"?

 

Volume and TDs are all that matter and Gordon's a lock for both.

 

It doesn't if you keep getting the volume, and personally I believe Gordon does this year. 

 

That said, there is a developing trend here that isn't very gratifying. YPC isn't great. Continually not great. Receptions per game down with Ekeler usage as mentioned above. His dimensions are being reduced, and what he does do he's never been "great" at. He hasn't really ever been great other than volume in a sense. 

 

It's certainly not the ideal direction you'd see a RB going. Gives you some pause, IMO. 

 

Again, that said, I think I'm moving him into my First Round, and think people are too low on him. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

It doesn't if you keep getting the volume, and personally I believe Gordon does this year. 

 

That said, there is a developing trend here that isn't very gratifying. YPC isn't great. Continually not great. Receptions per game down with Ekeler usage as mentioned above. His dimensions are being reduced, and what he does do he's never been "great" at. He hasn't really ever been great other than volume in a sense. 

 

It's certainly not the ideal direction you'd see a RB going. Gives you some pause, IMO. 

 

Again, that said, I think I'm moving him into my First Round, and think people are too low on him. 

 

Every mock I've done in the last 2 weeks he hasn't escaped the 1st.

 

FWIW I do 12 team PPR mocks mostly. His average pick seems to be exactly at 9. This is also what his ADP and therefore his ranking is on FFC and rankings definitely steer the ADP. 

 

 

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