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Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

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On 8/31/2018 at 9:46 AM, Chardo said:

My prediction: Mahomes is this year's NFL MVP.

 

From a fantasy standpoint, he's by far the best bargain.  Will easily perform well above his ADP.  This year's Carson Wentz.  No problem at all taking him as a QB1.  

 

Image result for criswell predicts

 

 

 

long way to go, but Chardo took an awful lot of ribbing for that call ... couldn't have asked for a better start than this, tho

 

 

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Sell high? TD regression is obviously a thing. Other streamer QBs are putting up just as solid numbers because of yardage totals which are more indicative of future success. 

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14 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

Sell high? TD regression is obviously a thing. Other streamer QBs are putting up just as solid numbers because of yardage totals which are more indicative of future success. 

 

blah....blah.....blah......blaaaaaaaaah

 

Riding bareback on the wings of Mahomie this year. 

 

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20 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

Sell high? TD regression is obviously a thing. Other streamer QBs are putting up just as solid numbers because of yardage totals which are more indicative of future success. 

 

I havent gone through and analyzed every other QB's first 2 weeks of the season, but I don't think Mahomes' 582 passing yards in 2 starts should be seen as a negative. He's got TEN passing TDs which means more often than not he's gaining every possible yard by putting the finishing the drive in the endzone. 

 

In Week 1, one of Mahomes' touchdown drives went for 2 yards because the Chiefs recovered a fumble at the 2 yard line, but he also led touchdown drives of 75, 75, and 86 yards. 

In Week 2, the Chiefs first TD drive started at the 10 yard line after a great punt return. Outside of that he led touchdown drives of 71, 61, 75, 75, and 65 yards. A few short(er) fields mixed in there, but clearly you want your fantasy QB to take whatever field position he's given and put the ball in the end zone. That's what Mahomes has done.

 

He won't average 5 TDs a game, but it seems like a stretch to look at his yardage totals and deduce that he's less likely to sustain success...

Edited by mjb03003

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1 hour ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I havent gone through and analyzed every other QB's first 2 weeks of the season, but I don't think Mahomes' 582 passing yards in 2 starts should be seen as a negative. He's got TEN passing TDs which means more often than not he's gaining every possible yard by putting the finishing the drive in the endzone. 

 

In Week 1, one of Mahomes' touchdown drives went for 2 yards because the Chiefs recovered a fumble at the 2 yard line, but he also led touchdown drives of 75, 75, and 86 yards. 

In Week 2, the Chiefs first TD drive started at the 10 yard line after a great punt return. Outside of that he led touchdown drives of 71, 61, 75, 75, and 65 yards. A few short(er) fields mixed in there, but clearly you want your fantasy QB to take whatever field position he's given and put the ball in the end zone. That's what Mahomes has done.

 

He won't average 5 TDs a game, but it seems like a stretch to look at his yardage totals and deduce that he's less likely to sustain success...

He’s the QB10 (with two more QBs to go) after two weeks in total yards. We all know his unsustainable TD rate will fall and then playing @DEN, Jax and @NE in a couple weeks. If you can get top dollar for him now or after the SF game I’d make a trade. 

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2 hours ago, martinjlm said:

Sell high? TD regression is obviously a thing. Other streamer QBs are putting up just as solid numbers because of yardage totals which are more indicative of future success. 

Please tell me what "other streamer QBs are putting up just as solid numbers"? 

 

He is the QB1 after 2 weeks, just threw 6 touchdowns and 4 touchdowns in back to back games, and has looked unstoppable. All of his mechanics have looked amazing. Why would anyone buy him if "other streamer QBs are putting up just as solid numbers"? Wouldn't they just pick up one of those other streamer QBs you're referencing? 

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5 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

He’s the QB10 (with two more QBs to go) after two weeks in total yards. We all know his unsustainable TD rate will fall and then playing @DEN, Jax and @NE in a couple weeks. If you can get top dollar for him now or after the SF game I’d make a trade. 

 

But how do you hold his yardage total against him? He's been capping off drives with touchdown passes...not like he's leaving yards on the field. 

 

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Favorite thing from yesterday was the line reporter after half-time saying she had talked to Andy Reid and he had told her, "I don't care about balance."  First play for the Chiefs was an empty backfield.  Going to be a very entertaining year for Mahomes owners.

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35 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

He’s the QB10 (with two more QBs to go) after two weeks in total yards. We all know his unsustainable TD rate will fall and then playing @DEN, Jax and @NE in a couple weeks. If you can get top dollar for him now or after the SF game I’d make a trade. 

 

Same story, different player as Watson last year.  Not concerned about any team.  Playing Mahomes.

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7 minutes ago, Bastardo! said:

Favorite thing from yesterday was the line reporter after half-time saying she had talked to Andy Reid and he had told her, "I don't care about balance."  First play for the Chiefs was an empty backfield.  Going to be a very entertaining year for Mahomes owners.

 

I absolutely love the attitude.

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16 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

I absolutely love the attitude.

 

i am thoroughly convinced that the big guy is running vendetta here on the league ... the only thing akin to winning is being called "genius" or "guru" ... Reid is playing a video game right now, the juice is undeniable. 

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Don't sell him. He's going to be the number 1 fantasy QB. Breaking records and taking the league by storm already. I firmly believe that he's the next big thing. Just enjoy the ride.

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Reid is a great QB coach. And Mahomes looks far more along than I ever expected. This guy is a championship winner this season.

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You're nuts if you're trying to offload Mahomes after this weekend. Fantasy is a win now game. Enjoy the production while it lasts, because it's likely a big factor for why you're winning your matchups RIGHT NOW. 

 

You probably took this guy at the end of your draft so it's not like you paid a lot to get him and in return you have the current QB1. Do you not see the insane value you have at a position that scores a lot of points? 

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2 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

When do you think the regression will happen? Week 3? Week 4?

 

I think right around the AFC Championship game.

 

This is typical for Andy Reid products. 

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Anyone saying to sell Mahomes probably doesn't own him. He's literally setting records and he only has 19 pages of action here. That tells me that most missed the boat on this kid. Regression is GOING TO HAPPEN but one of the more entertaining parts of fantasy is the wild rides that you were smart of lucky enough to snag at the table. 

 

Unless you're getting some gross overpay just pencil this kid for the next 9 weeks, his late bye week allows you roster flexibility. 

 

MaHomes Is Gas. :ph34r:

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The TD rate isn't sustainable and he will fall back down to Earth in that category. But regression? That typically happens the next season for a break out QB. Once defenses have enough tape and time to study a QB's tendencies in detail. There is a long list of one year wonder QB's that sustain it for the entire season. Mahomes is in for a big season. Who knows if Mahomes will continue to be a good or great QB beyond this season, but there is no indication he can't sustain it for this season.

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