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Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook


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21 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Probably the most explosive trio in the league.  I can’t think of another better.    KCs problem was their defense.   When Berry went down that was it.   But the talent on the front 7 is undeniable, and now Fuller- a young, cheap, budding cb1 is in the fold .   Biggest question is Mahomes 

 

This is an interesting topic for fantasy purposes.  If the defense improves next season, that'll lower the shootout potential we saw fairly regularly in KC games, that all Smith, Hill, and Kelce owners enjoyed.  Berry was certainly missed, for starters, and they now have Fuller at slot CB who I'll admit I dont know, but he sounds like he has lockdown potential.  Add in those two with Peters and the secondary is a boon, and suddenly that extra pass heavy drive or two becomes a run heavy drive.  

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

This is an interesting topic for fantasy purposes.  If the defense improves next season, that'll lower the shootout potential we saw fairly regularly in KC games, that all Smith, Hill, and Kelce owners enjoyed.  Berry was certainly missed, for starters, and they now have Fuller at slot CB who I'll admit I dont know, but he sounds like he has lockdown potential.  Add in those two with Peters and the secondary is a boon, and suddenly that extra pass heavy drive or two becomes a run heavy drive.  

 

In games where they should have been run heavy this year, they passed, in games where they should have been pass heavy, they ran. #Reid 

 

A good defense is a boom to an offense no matter what imo, better field position, more rest, more opportunities, etc etc ..this is my eyeball opinion, maybe some pro can drop in with statistics to back it up. 

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8 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

In games where they should have been run heavy this year, they passed, in games where they should have been pass heavy, they ran. #Reid 

 

A good defense is a boom to an offense no matter what imo, better field position, more rest, more opportunities, etc etc ..this is my eyeball opinion, maybe some pro can drop in with statistics to back it up. 

 

I would agree with your eyeball opinion on that. Earlier this week, I was doing some general checking on WR numbers. You can be on a bad team with a bad defense and still do well offensively. But in general, the best WR's are on good teams (and good teams also often have good defenses...not always, but often). I didn't have a chance to get too deep into it, but from what I saw statistically and just from my own opinions watching football, I'd say you are right. 

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

This is an interesting topic for fantasy purposes.  If the defense improves next season, that'll lower the shootout potential we saw fairly regularly in KC games, that all Smith, Hill, and Kelce owners enjoyed.  Berry was certainly missed, for starters, and they now have Fuller at slot CB who I'll admit I dont know, but he sounds like he has lockdown potential.  Add in those two with Peters and the secondary is a boon, and suddenly that extra pass heavy drive or two becomes a run heavy drive.  

Not always. Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season was predicated on defense, not offense. They had the best offensive starting field position in the NFL due to turnovers from defense/ST and the defense forcing better field position. That allowed Cam to have much shorter fields to work with and score with. Cam set a career high in passing TD's that season. In the SB the Broncos didn't allow the Panthers to have good starting field position and the Panthers' offense tanked, like it did in the Atlanta game they lost that season.

 

A better defense also gives a team more possessions. Which can equate to more fantasy points. It wouldn't be so bad if the Chiefs defense was giving up TDs or points on quick drives, but that isn't the issue with the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs defense gets beaten up between the 20's. Teams march down the field and eat up clock doing so. That is bad for fantasy for the offense.The Titans did the same thing in the 2nd half of their playoff game.

 

The Chiefs defense really needs to do a better job of getting off the field more quickly to help give the offense more possessions. They can't keep allowing defenses to march down the field and eat up TOP only to give up a FG or TD. There just won't be enough possessions or time for the offense to put up good fantasy numbers.

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On 1/31/2018 at 8:05 AM, Impreza178 said:

Probably the most explosive trio in the league.  I can’t think of another better.  

 

Assuming you're just talking RB/TE/WR -

 

Gurley, Everett, Watkins?  That's assuming projection of Everett hitting his Jordan Reed ceiling.

 

Gronk, Cooks, Dion Lewis?

 

Here's a stretch one with a LOT of projection in it - Seals-Jones, DJ, John Brown/JJ Nelson?

 

ASJ, Robby "wife stealer" Anderson, Powell?

 

AJ, Eifert, Mixon?

 

Doctson, Reed, Chris Thompson?

 

Thelien/Diggs, Rudolph, Cook?

 

Those are mostly reaches but pure talent wise I do think there's one combo that matches the KC trio in athleticism and explosiveness:

 

Josh Gordon, Njoku, Duke Johnson (or Barkley if he goes there).

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

He ran for 500 yards in 2015 and was the number 6 rushing QB this year. What's your definition?

And???? he only ran for 130 yards 2016. My definition would be Rodgers, Newton, T. Taylor, Wilson, Mariotta....

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1 minute ago, JohnD said:

And???? he only ran for 130 yards 2016. My definition would be Rodgers, Newton, T. Taylor, Wilson, Mariotta....

And Alex Smith is in that tier.

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On 1/31/2018 at 8:05 AM, Impreza178 said:

KCs problem was their defense.   When Berry went down that was it.   But the talent on the front 7 is undeniable, and now Fuller- a young, cheap, budding cb1 is in the fold .   

 

KC defense thoughts -

Everyone knows they lost Eric Berry early but no one really talks about how Dee Ford was injured all season.   Losing him killed the outside pass rush.

 

Where were they weak in general? 

Edge pass rush

Slot cb, #2 outside CB opposite Peters

Run D

 

Assuming full return to health for various guys -

In the front 7 they'll go into next year with Ford and Houston at olb.  Nice.

 

They'll have the vastly underrated Chris Jones at one DE spot.  Alvin Bailey at the other spot.   Kpassagnon for depth (this guy has tools to build on.   Not sure where he's ultimately going to end up though.   Some edge, some DT in 4 man fronts).

 

They need a NT and more speed at LB.  DJ is 35 and a step slower.  Raglan actually was a nice acquisition imo.  But another LB should be brought in to push DJ or replace him period.  Addressing these spots should fix the run D.

 

Fuller upgrades the slot cb spot.  That's like going from a .150 hitter to a .300.  

 

That just leaves the other outside CB spot opposite Peters.

 

All in all there aren't that many defensive holes to fill.   D should be better. 

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8 minutes ago, JohnD said:

And???? he only ran for 130 yards 2016. My definition would be Rodgers, Newton, T. Taylor, Wilson, Mariotta....

So you're going to throw out two years of stats in favor of one year? Even if you do it as a three year average, he is a dual threat QB.

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4 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

This is an interesting topic for fantasy purposes.  If the defense improves next season, that'll lower the shootout potential we saw fairly regularly in KC games, that all Smith, Hill, and Kelce owners enjoyed.  Berry was certainly missed, for starters, and they now have Fuller at slot CB who I'll admit I dont know, but he sounds like he has lockdown potential.  Add in those two with Peters and the secondary is a boon, and suddenly that extra pass heavy drive or two becomes a run heavy drive.  

 

2 hours ago, JSA2422 said:

 

In games where they should have been run heavy this year, they passed, in games where they should have been pass heavy, they ran. #Reid 

 

A good defense is a boom to an offense no matter what imo, better field position, more rest, more opportunities, etc etc ..this is my eyeball opinion, maybe some pro can drop in with statistics to back it up. 

 

2 hours ago, devaster said:

Not always. Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season was predicated on defense, not offense. They had the best offensive starting field position in the NFL due to turnovers from defense/ST and the defense forcing better field position. That allowed Cam to have much shorter fields to work with and score with. Cam set a career high in passing TD's that season. In the SB the Broncos didn't allow the Panthers to have good starting field position and the Panthers' offense tanked, like it did in the Atlanta game they lost that season.

 

A better defense also gives a team more possessions. Which can equate to more fantasy points. It wouldn't be so bad if the Chiefs defense was giving up TDs or points on quick drives, but that isn't the issue with the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs defense gets beaten up between the 20's. Teams march down the field and eat up clock doing so. That is bad for fantasy for the offense.The Titans did the same thing in the 2nd half of their playoff game.

 

The Chiefs defense really needs to do a better job of getting off the field more quickly to help give the offense more possessions. They can't keep allowing defenses to march down the field and eat up TOP only to give up a FG or TD. There just won't be enough possessions or time for the offense to put up good fantasy numbers.

 

I did a check on the top 10 fantasy QB's across the past 5 seasons (2013--2017).  Specifically what I checked for, was to see how their team defenses did in terms of points allowed and yards allowed. I went by yearly top 10 fantasy QB's from Pro Football Reference...

 

**Points Allowed**

Ranked 1st--8th in Points Allowed: 14 of 50 instances

Ranked 9th--16th in Points Allowed: 13 of 50 instances

Ranked 17th--24th in Points Allowed: 13 of 50 instances

Ranked 25th--32nd in Points Allowed: 10 of 50 instances

 

**Yards Allowed** 

Ranked 1st--8th in Points Allowed: 14 of 50 instances

Ranked 9th--16th in Points Allowed: 10 of 50 instances

Ranked 17th--24th in Points Allowed: 10 of 50 instances

Ranked 25th--32nd in Points Allowed: 16 of 50 instances

 

Russell Wilson is an interesting QB to test out the theory of whether great fantasy production can be had with a great defense...

In 2013, he was the #8 fantasy QB. His defense was 1st in Points Allowed AND 1st in Yards Allowed.

In 2014, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 1st in Points Allowed AND 1st in Yards Allowed.

In 2015, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 1st in Points Allowed and 2nd in Yards Allowed.

 

Also going to Cam Newton, whose 2015 season was mentioned...

In 2013, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 2nd in Points Allowed AND 2nd in Yards Allowed.

In 2015, he was the #1 fantasy QB. His defense was 6th in Points Allowed AND 6th in Yards Allowed.

 

Looking at Wilson and Cam (who both like to run), before thinking you have to be a good rushing QB to succeed with a good D, there's Drew Brees...

In 2013, he was the #2 fantasy QB. His defense was 4th in Points Allowed AND 4th in Yards Allowed.

In 2014, he was the #6 fantasy QB. His defense was 28th in Points Allowed and 31st in Yards Allowed.

In 2015, he was the #6 fantasy QB. His defense was 32nd in Points Allowed and 31st in Yards Allowed.

In 2016, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 31st in Points Allowed and 27th in Yards Allowed.

...Brees has been able to do fantastic with a terrible defense (2014--2017). But his best season in the past 5 years was 2013. Not just by fantasy ranking (#2), but by total fantasy points. His highest-season total across 2013--2017 (and second-highest of his career) came with the best Saints defense of that period.

 

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58 minutes ago, Corleone said:

 

 

 

I did a check on the top 10 fantasy QB's across the past 5 seasons (2013--2017).  Specifically what I checked for, was to see how their team defenses did in terms of points allowed and yards allowed. I went by yearly top 10 fantasy QB's from Pro Football Reference...

 

**Points Allowed**

Ranked 1st--8th in Points Allowed: 14 of 50 instances

Ranked 9th--16th in Points Allowed: 13 of 50 instances

Ranked 17th--24th in Points Allowed: 13 of 50 instances

Ranked 25th--32nd in Points Allowed: 10 of 50 instances

 

**Yards Allowed** 

Ranked 1st--8th in Points Allowed: 14 of 50 instances

Ranked 9th--16th in Points Allowed: 10 of 50 instances

Ranked 17th--24th in Points Allowed: 10 of 50 instances

Ranked 25th--32nd in Points Allowed: 16 of 50 instances

 

Russell Wilson is an interesting QB to test out the theory of whether great fantasy production can be had with a great defense...

In 2013, he was the #8 fantasy QB. His defense was 1st in Points Allowed AND 1st in Yards Allowed.

In 2014, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 1st in Points Allowed AND 1st in Yards Allowed.

In 2015, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 1st in Points Allowed and 2nd in Yards Allowed.

 

Also going to Cam Newton, whose 2015 season was mentioned...

In 2013, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 2nd in Points Allowed AND 2nd in Yards Allowed.

In 2015, he was the #1 fantasy QB. His defense was 6th in Points Allowed AND 6th in Yards Allowed.

 

Looking at Wilson and Cam (who both like to run), before thinking you have to be a good rushing QB to succeed with a good D, there's Drew Brees...

In 2013, he was the #2 fantasy QB. His defense was 4th in Points Allowed AND 4th in Yards Allowed.

In 2014, he was the #6 fantasy QB. His defense was 28th in Points Allowed and 31st in Yards Allowed.

In 2015, he was the #6 fantasy QB. His defense was 32nd in Points Allowed and 31st in Yards Allowed.

In 2016, he was the #3 fantasy QB. His defense was 31st in Points Allowed and 27th in Yards Allowed.

...Brees has been able to do fantastic with a terrible defense (2014--2017). But his best season in the past 5 years was 2013. Not just by fantasy ranking (#2), but by total fantasy points. His highest-season total across 2013--2017 (and second-highest of his career) came with the best Saints defense of that period.

 

 

Good info. 

 

But as you pointed out you have two running qbs and the 3rd guy is a HOFer with an extremely aggressive head coach.

 

If the conversation is can Mahomes in 2018 be a top tier fantasy qb if the KC D is top notch then the following questions should be answered?

 

- how many fantasy points will be generate with his legs? 

- do you think Andy Reid will allow a 2nd year qb playing in his first season as a starter to chuck the ball all over the field and risk turnovers (which would lose games)?  Or do you think he'll play if safe?

 

Btw, I'd add Carson Wentz to this analysis (although I'm not sure if the philly D met your defensive standards).

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22 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

Good info. 

 

But as you pointed out you have two running qbs and the 3rd guy is a HOFer with an extremely aggressive head coach.

 

If the conversation is can Mahomes in 2018 be a top tier fantasy qb if the KC D is top notch then the following questions should be answered?

 

- how many fantasy points will be generate with his legs? 

- do you think Andy Reid will allow a 2nd year qb playing in his first season as a starter to chuck the ball all over the field and risk turnovers (which would lose games)?  Or do you think he'll play if safe?

 

Btw, I'd add Carson Wentz to this analysis (although I'm not sure if the philly D met your defensive standards).

 

I think Mahomes may be able to get 4-5 TD's rushing, though rushing TD's for QB's are certainly a guessing game. But overall, I think he has a decent chance to generate some decent points with his legs.

 

For Reid's usage of a 2nd year QB, it was a long time ago, but we do have an interesting case for analysis...Reid himself. In 2000 as Philly coach, Reid had Donovan McNabb. Keep in mind that Reid needed a good season, as he was 5-11 in his first season during 1998. Like Mahomes, McNabb was a high draft pick (#2 in the 1999 draft, vs Mahomes going #10 in the 2016 draft).

In 2000, McNabb finished as the #5 fantasy QB under Reid.

 

Now looking towards Mahomes in 2018, I think Reid would be smart to avoid playing it safe...as playing it safe could lead to the loss of his coaching job. KC had a massive drop-off after their great start this past year, blew a big playoff lead against the uninspiring Titans, and have a history of playoff failure under Reid. If he plays it safe, he could be next out the door behind Alex Smith. 

 

As far as Wentz goes...

In 2017, he was the #5 fantasy QB (despite injury). His defense was 4th in Points Allowed AND 4th in Yards Allowed. So he was another QB who succeeded with a good D. 

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Mahomes has to be looked at as a 1st year player/starter imo. McNabb only started 6 games as a rookie, but did struggle. I think we are looking at somewhere in between. Which is why I still think Mahomes is going to be a mid QB2.

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It's way too early to know anything about Mahomes. We have absolutely nothing tangible to go on. He's going to be drafted as a QB2 at best. Not to say he won't or can't morph into a legit QB1. He's worth a stash for sure.

 

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Smith has mobility too, so maybe we should pump the breaks a bit ... 

 

 

 

Mahomes did have that 1 INT in his first start...which was a victory at Denver.

If throwing an INT in one's first start is the criteria, we may as well look at Smith too. His first start was a 28-3 loss at home against Indy...with 4 INT's. 

 

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2 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

Exactly!!! Calm down people. The kid hasn't played in a meaningful NFL game. He could be the biggest bust since the first Carr.


Who here is saying that he is a definite superstar though? I haven't seen one post in this thread indicating anything to that effect. 

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2 hours ago, Corleone said:

 

Mahomes did have that 1 INT in his first start...which was a victory at Denver.

If throwing an INT in one's first start is the criteria, we may as well look at Smith too. His first start was a 28-3 loss at home against Indy...with 4 INT's. 

 

 

relax. just think claiming KC is "more dangerous now" with Mahomes is ridiculous - until he actually gives me a reason to think so.

 

i' m surprised you didn't drool over the armstrength he showed on that INT - rocket arm , kinda like jay cutler 

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6 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

relax. just think claiming KC is "more dangerous now" with Mahomes is ridiculous - until he actually gives me a reason to think so.

 

i' m surprised you didn't drool over the armstrength he showed on that INT - rocket arm , kinda like jay cutler 

 

Exactly. Only every QB drafted nowadays has a "rocket arm" and "can make all the throws". For anyone to think he's an immediate upgrade over a Probowl QB is flat out insane. They are not a better team today because Alex Smith is gone. KC got fleeced. 

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23 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

relax. just think claiming KC is "more dangerous now" with Mahomes is ridiculous - until he actually gives me a reason to think so.

 

i' m surprised you didn't drool over the armstrength he showed on that INT - rocket arm , kinda like jay cutler 

 

Relax. I never said KC is "more dangerous now". And sorry if mentioning that Smith threw 4 INT's in a blowout loss his first start upset you. 

 

But you know what? KC has won exactly 1 playoff game the last 24 years. The last 5 of those seasons were with Smith at QB. Were they going to the next level with Smith? If you say yes, then we'll agree to disagree. Maybe Mahomes will get them to the next level, maybe he won't...we shall see.

 

As far as the arm strength on Mahomes, I thought this throw starting at the 30 second mark from the same game was pretty impressive...

 

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35 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

Exactly. Only every QB drafted nowadays has a "rocket arm" and "can make all the throws". For anyone to think he's an immediate upgrade over a Probowl QB is flat out insane. They are not a better team today because Alex Smith is gone. KC got fleeced. 

 

Due to former GM Dorsey's mismanagement of the salary cap Smith had to go.  That they were able to get anything was a miracle given that the entire league knew he had to be moved or cut.

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1 minute ago, Corleone said:

 

Relax. I never said KC is "more dangerous now". And sorry if mentioning that Smith threw 4 INT's in a blowout loss his first start upset you. 

 

But you know what? KC has won exactly 1 playoff game the last 24 years. The last 5 of those seasons were with Smith at QB. Were they going to the next level with Smith? If you say yes, then we'll agree to disagree. Maybe Mahomes will get them to the next level, maybe he won't...we shall see.

 

As far as the arm strength on Mahomes, I thought this throw starting at the 30 second mark from the same game was pretty impressive...

 

 

Mahomes ultimate ceiling is higher.  But I'm expecting a whole lot of boom bust play in 2018.

 

Will he get there?   Dunno.  As much as I dislike Reid though he did do a nice job designing an offense that suited McNabb's abilities so I think he'll bring Mahomes along properly.

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43 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

Exactly. Only every QB drafted nowadays has a "rocket arm" and "can make all the throws". For anyone to think he's an immediate upgrade over a Probowl QB is flat out insane. They are not a better team today because Alex Smith is gone. KC got fleeced. 

 

Smith has made 3 Pro Bowls in 12 seasons (every time as an alternate, in only because better players couldn't play). You know who else made the Pro Bowl as an alternate this year? TY Hilton. Making the Pro Bowl doesn't mean you're a great player. Smith did have an excellent 2017, but he is not some automatic Pro Bowl QB that makes a team great.

 

And I don't think KC got fleeced at all in the trade this week...rather, it is Washington who got fleeced by giving up a 3rd rounder AND a good young cornerback. KC made a terrific deal. 

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