thebrowns

Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

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Back when QB's were 1st round fantasy picks they had trade value. When you are getting top-5 performances from 9th round QB's or drafted later they don't hold as much value. Even if they are #1 in the league. Because you only start 1 and a bunch of other QB's in the league are also putting up 20+ PPG.

 

Pre-2008 QB's were high valued fantasy assets. Not so much any more. And the RB position is a catastrophe this season, making them even more valuable than they usually are.

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The problem with trading Mahomes is that last game is likely the outlier for the Chiefs.  Their defense is atrocious.  The Chiefs will be in a lot of track meets this year which is great for fantasy purposes.  Andy Reid use to be one of the most conservative coaches in football, but with all these toys now on offense he almost can’t because they just keep finding ways to make plays.  I don’t really see this offense slowing down outside of a major injury.

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

In my league, there are 13 starting QBs averaging 20 ppg or better, with Mahomes leading the way at 27.99 (the other 12 averaging 20.31-25.47 ppg). Fantasy owners are not going to be willing to make a deal for a young, first-time-starting QB (who many still expect to regress at some point), to gain a few points per week. They're content with Tom Brady's 20.31 ppg. They're content with Wentz and his 19.44, and the ghost of Russell Wilson because his past seasons. They'd trade for Mahomes, but they're not giving up value to get a QB that they're not convinced will greatly outscore the QB they currently have. 

 

It's just the landscape right now. Owners would prefer to load up on skills positions because they know they can get a QB who throws up points if they just wait.

It doesn't matter how much points you score. It matters how much points you score relative to others at your given position. The difference between 27 and 20 is the same as the difference between 17 and 10. It's equivalent to the difference between a guy like AP and Duke.

 

Now, you need two RBs so obviously there is more value in the position since there is a lot less options on the wire with a pulse. However, QBs are extremely valuable the problem is most people don't see that because all they see is 15 points from their QB and think that is good. When in reality there are guys putting up 10+ more. That's a huge advantage. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It doesn't matter how much points you score. It matters how much points you score relative to others at your given position. The difference between 27 and 20 is the same as the difference between 17 and 10. It's equivalent to the difference between a guy like AP and Duke.

 

Now, you need two RBs so obviously there is more value in the position since there is a lot less options on the wire with a pulse. However, QBs are extremely valuable the problem is most people don't see that because all they see is 15 points from their QB and think that is good. When in reality there are guys putting up 10+ more. That's a huge advantage. 

No one thinks 15 points from your QB is good. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

It doesn't matter how much points you score. It matters how much points you score relative to others at your given position. The difference between 27 and 20 is the same as the difference between 17 and 10. It's equivalent to the difference between a guy like AP and Duke.

 

Now, you need two RBs so obviously there is more value in the position since there is a lot less options on the wire with a pulse. However, QBs are extremely valuable the problem is most people don't see that because all they see is 15 points from their QB and think that is good. When in reality there are guys putting up 10+ more. That's a huge advantage. 

The disparity this year is big between the top 2 QB's and the rest, but the rest are all close by.

 

In my league I have Mahomes at 200.1 points, Ryan at 181, and then the next 7 have between 149-162. That is 7 players who have a Max difference of 13 points. These numbers aren't including this week, though, but this is the main reason people do not trade for QB's. You have 1-2 outliers and then everyone else is in the same tier. 

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It doesn't matter how much points you score. It matters how much points you score relative to others at your given position. The difference between 27 and 20 is the same as the difference between 17 and 10. It's equivalent to the difference between a guy like AP and Duke.

 

Now, you need two RBs so obviously there is more value in the position since there is a lot less options on the wire with a pulse. However, QBs are extremely valuable the problem is most people don't see that because all they see is 15 points from their QB and think that is good. When in reality there are guys putting up 10+ more. That's a huge advantage. 

 

Yeah seven points can make a big difference. But so many RBs are crapping the bed, that the ones worth owning and starting are being held onto tightly. It's more advantageous to own one of 13 QBs scoring between 20-27 points (in my league) and hold onto those performing RBs than is to trade a RB to get Mahomes. And when that 13th ranked QB is Brady, his owner is not trading for Mahomes. If the difference is 2 points or 3 or 4 or 5, owners are willing to accept that deficit to hang onto their RBs. As for WRs, unless you're loaded with elite WRs, are you trading one of them for Mahomes...especially if your elite WRs are carrying your underperforming RBs? 

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3 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

The disparity this year is big between the top 2 QB's and the rest, but the rest are all close by.

 

In my league I have Mahomes at 200.1 points, Ryan at 181, and then the next 7 have between 149-162. That is 7 players who have a Max difference of 13 points. These numbers aren't including this week, though, but this is the main reason people do not trade for QB's. You have 1-2 outliers and then everyone else is in the same tier. 

Look at average. Brees and Ryan are neck to neck and Newton is right there. Rodgers is also ramping it up and should be right there.

 

However, I see the point. I'd say the top 5 (Mahomes, Brees, Newton, Rodgers, and Ryan) have offered quite the advantage. The problem is they aren't treated as a tier above the rest. If I didn't own two of them, I wouldn't trade them for much. 

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The defense is atrocious on the road, they play better at home.

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Look at average. Brees and Ryan are neck to neck and Newton is right there. Rodgers is also ramping it up and should be right there.

 

However, I see the point. I'd say the top 5 (Mahomes, Brees, Newton, Rodgers, and Ryan) have offered quite the advantage. The problem is they aren't treated as a tier above the rest. If I didn't own two of them, I wouldn't trade them for much. 

Good point but it is pretty much the same. I'm expecting a Brees drop off as they try to get back to an identical team from last year: control the clock with Kamara and Ingram, let the defense rest a bit. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah seven points can make a big difference. But so many RBs are crapping the bed, that the ones worth owning and starting are being held onto tightly. It's more advantageous to own one of 13 QBs scoring between 20-27 points (in my league) and hold onto those performing RBs than is to trade a RB to get Mahomes. And when that 13th ranked QB is Brady, his owner is not trading for Mahomes. If the difference is 2 points or 3 or 4 or 5, owners are willing to accept that deficit to hang onto their RBs. As for WRs, unless you're loaded with elite WRs, are you trading one of them for Mahomes...especially if your elite WRs are carrying your underperforming RBs? 

It obviously depends on team structure. For example, at one point I had Odell, Cooks, Hilton, and Ridley on my team this year. If I had drafted Jimmy G as my one and only QB would I flip Hilton or Cooks for Mahomes? Without a doubt. 

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Just now, oliminator123 said:

Good point but it is pretty much the same. I'm expecting a Brees drop off as they try to get back to an identical team from last year: control the clock with Kamara and Ingram, let the defense rest a bit. 

We will see. He still gets CIN, TB, ATL, and PIT. If you make it to the finals with Brees PIT at home week 16 is going to be fantasy heaven for Brees owners.

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3 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It obviously depends on team structure. For example, at one point I had Odell, Cooks, Hilton, and Ridley on my team this year. If I had drafted Jimmy G as my one and only QB would I flip Hilton or Cooks for Mahomes? Without a doubt. 

 

Yeah absolutely. So much depends on team construct and league settings. That's why I try not to speak in absolutes on the RW forums, lol. 

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1 hour ago, whoopsie said:

No one thinks 15 points from your QB is good. 

When I see 1-3 points from my RB or Amari Cooper I think that 15 is looking good. Especially when Bortles put up what he did last week.

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Literally the only way to trade him in leagues with competent owners is to get a top tier QB plus another starter back in return.

 

No one is giving you an RB1 or WR1 for a QB on their own. You could maybe get something like Luck + an RB2 back for him from someone who has a bunch of RB depth.

 

That being said, I’m just gonna hold.  His schedule is tough, but the primtime game at Denver earlier this year made me a believer that he’s matchup proof. He also didn’t play poorly against Jax, and probably would have had better fantasy numbers if the game had been closer.

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I own him and would not trade him at all. I would rather get min 25 a week without having to care about the matchup, the RPO looks great and pretty soon he’s going to ge scampering for TDS. He is the most matchup proof QB I have seen besides Manning in 14 and Brady in 07 etc. Also they are not going to start pounding the rock and forget what they been doing to get to here. Last night was a great example, they were moving the chains pass and run with the exception of their final drive when they were trying to kill the last 5 min. 35+ passes per game I like the floor more than I trust most QBs ceiling. 

 

I am am lucky enough to have J White on both teams as well and he’s been outstanding!,

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#1 Player in Fantasy Football entering week 8 

 

First half MVP 

 

I think this can get better. 

 

I feel like he can push his average over 40 a game. 

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If we redrafted today I think Mahomes would be a 1st round pick in a lot of drafts

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36 minutes ago, TommyKramer said:

If we redrafted today I think Mahomes would be a 1st round pick in a lot of drafts

 

Scoring leaders in my league overall for season: 

 

Mahomes 257.1 

 

Gurley 225.6

 

Thielen 214.2

 

Luck 211.6 

 

Matt Ryan 209.6 

 

Rivers 201.3 

 

Brees 201.2 

 

Barkley 194.5 

 

Barkley is tearing the cover off the league most weeks and he is roughly 63 points behind Mahomes. Mahomes has 46 more points than the next closest QB. Although QB is deep, he gives owners a decided advantage weekly that he could win you your week all on his own. 

 

People were calling to trade him after week 3. 

 

Fools. 

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Cam's 2015 was a big reason for my championship that season when a lot of people wrote him off and let him slip in drafts. Mahomes wasn't viewed as a sure-fire success in his 1st season as a starter because he was being drafted around where Rivers goes. And Rivers is also vastly outperforming his draft ADP. You don't trade a guy like that unless you are getting back Gurley, Gordon, Barkley, etc. You need to get back a top-5 1st rounder from this season back to justify a trade in my opinion.

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On 10/22/2018 at 3:51 PM, Krambone said:

I own him and would not trade him at all. I would rather get min 25 a week without having to care about the matchup, the RPO looks great and pretty soon he’s going to ge scampering for TDS. He is the most matchup proof QB I have seen besides Manning in 14 and Brady in 07 etc. Also they are not going to start pounding the rock and forget what they been doing to get to here. Last night was a great example, they were moving the chains pass and run with the exception of their final drive when they were trying to kill the last 5 min. 35+ passes per game I like the floor more than I trust most QBs ceiling. 

 

I am am lucky enough to have J White on both teams as well and he’s been outstanding!,

Neither would I.  He's helped carry my team in several weeks, which is usually what RBs are supposed to do for you.  There's a ton of value in that and to trade it away would be foolish, just like holding onto those handful of elite RBs.

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15 hours ago, iretirefromfantasy said:

I am still regretting dropping this guy before week 1 to grab Conner, I could have dropped someone else :( 

 

Ouch. Well you still have Goff. And that a nice looking roster, potential championship team right there.

 

Oh 10 team. Still looking good though.

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4 hours ago, ginocan said:

 

Ouch. Well you still have Goff. And that a nice looking roster, potential championship team right there.

 

Oh 10 team. Still looking good though.

Yeah, my team is doing great, .5 ppr and scored 1,106 points through 7 weeks :) 

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ya know, i been runnin' round this bored dropping my "$$$$ Money F'n Mitch $$$$" platitudes at Trubiscuits, buuut ... our boy 'Homie here has made 8 career starts, and the Chiefs are 8-0 ATS in those starts ... now, THAT'S worthy of "$$$$ Money F'n Mahomie $$$$", ya follow?  because, when ya get right down to it, the only thing that matters up in this endeavor is how we line our pockets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

now, that being said, the JINX has officially been leveled ... take the Broncos at -10  :D 

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