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Patrick Mahomes II 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

It isn't cherry picking. The dual threat QB's that can't operate regularly from a pocket and work through progressions eventually flame out. It all comes down to passing still. Mariota is another example of a QB that struggles in the pocket so far and has regressed as a passer.

 

I was just giving dual threat examples. There are plenty of one-year wonder QB's that weren't dual threats that flamed out because they couldn't adapt after defenses took away what they do best. Derek Anderson is one such example. All comes down to passing from the pocket eventually.

 

I've agreed that dual threat qb needs to be also able to operate from the pocket. 

 

But successful young qbs are increasingly dual threat. The league is morphing that way. Guys like Kap and Vick and RGIII all failed for the same reason any QB  fails -  accuracy or decision making. But Rodgers and Wilson (and soon Wentz) own the NFC and their legs are a significant part of their success. 

 

I think Carr and Cousins and Goff types can still have success. Just helps to be mobile and we see those dual threat guys carving up teams more consistently. At least in the nfc. 

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10 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I've agreed that dual threat qb needs to be also able to operate from the pocket. 

 

But successful young qbs are increasingly dual threat. The league is morphing that way. Guys like Kap and Vick and RGIII all failed for the same reason any QB  fails -  accuracy or decision making. But Rodgers and Wilson (and soon Wentz) own the NFC and their legs are a significant part of their success. 

 

I think Carr and Cousins and Goff types can still have success. Just helps to be mobile and we see those dual threat guys carving up teams more consistently. At least in the nfc. 

 

Cousins has underrated mobility.  He extends plays with his legs as well.   He's not a pure runner but will pull the ball down and go if the defense gives it to him.   Ryan is the same way. 

 

I think the days of the immobile statue qb are pretty much gone.   But ultimately I agree with @devaster, you need to be able to make plays from the pocket.  Your legs are a complement but if that's the foundation of your qb game you're going to hit a ceiling. 

 

Cam is going to have to evolve.  That's why Norv was brought in,  to help him take that next step (if he can).

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19 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I've agreed that dual threat qb needs to be also able to operate from the pocket. 

 

But successful young qbs are increasingly dual threat. The league is morphing that way. Guys like Kap and Vick and RGIII all failed for the same reason any QB  fails -  accuracy or decision making. But Rodgers and Wilson (and soon Wentz) own the NFC and their legs are a significant part of their success. 

 

I think Carr and Cousins and Goff types can still have success. Just helps to be mobile and we see those dual threat guys carving up teams more consistently. At least in the nfc. 

I will disagree with that the league is morphing that way. I think it has more to do with better athletes playing the QB position now than decades ago. Winston is another statue without a lot of mobility. Built more like a young Big Ben. Bradford has had success as a statue. Dalton. But about half the league or more have starters that are athletic and considered dual threats.

 

There is a big difference in guys like Rodgers and Tyrod/Kaep/Cam though. Rodgers extends plays when they break down. Those guys tend to look at one read and take off running. Those guys provide great fantasy floors, but poor real life floors.

 

The league still looks for their prototypical QB build. With the added bonus that a lot of incoming QB's have mobility in this day and age. But ultimately it comes down to passing.

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58 minutes ago, devaster said:

I will disagree with that the league is morphing that way. I think it has more to do with better athletes playing the QB position now than decades ago. Winston is another statue without a lot of mobility. Built more like a young Big Ben. Bradford has had success as a statue. Dalton. But about half the league or more have starters that are athletic and considered dual threats.

 

There is a big difference in guys like Rodgers and Tyrod/Kaep/Cam though. Rodgers extends plays when they break down. Those guys tend to look at one read and take off running. Those guys provide great fantasy floors, but poor real life floors.

 

The league still looks for their prototypical QB build. With the added bonus that a lot of incoming QB's have mobility in this day and age. But ultimately it comes down to passing.

 

Dalton and Jameis are both athletic and extend plays.  They aren't pure runners but both are mobile and far from statues.

 

Only truly immobile guys off the top of my head are Ben, Brady, Brees, Eli, and Rivers.  Probably forgetting one or two.  And these 4 are masterful at sliding within the pocket to deliver the ball.

 

I like your point about the general improvement in the overall athletic ability of qbs generally now. 

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

But ultimately I agree with @devaster, you need to be able to make plays from the pocket.  Your legs are a complement but if that's the foundation of your qb game you're going to hit a ceiling. 

 

if that's all we're saying, then I agree with you all.  I think the comment was made that the NFL transition to mobile QBs has failed, though, when it clearly is just blossoming.

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3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

if that's all we're saying, then I agree with you all.  I think the comment was made that the NFL transition to mobile QBs has failed, though, when it clearly is just blossoming.

It isn't like dual threats never existed in the NFL. Tark and Otto are HoFamers. Steve Young. I think what we are probably finding is that the statue non-athletic QB's like Peyton, Brady, Brees, Eli, and Rivers are really rare. Most players in the NFL have some form of athleticism. Maybe the league is trending back towards the mean.

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Is the sentiment being expressed here that mahomes is a run-first qb? That he is closer to kap and rg3, then aaron rodgers or wentz?

 

I find that kind of crazy. Hes is not just a qb with a big arm and mobility. Ball placement, touch, pocket navigation were all things i saw on tape when studying. He was up and down at times. But i mean..5000+ yards , 40+ passing tds and 200+ yards rushing his final season. Mahomes mobility is an extra luxury, not what he relies on.

 

Not to mention some of his highlight tapes are WOW throws that maybe only aaron rodgers could make otherwise imo. On the move, back foot, play extension. Im by no means calling him aaron rodgers, its a college highlight tape - everyone looks like a superstar, but he is much closer in style to rodgers then an rg3.

Edited by vikingapocalypse
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Just now, vikingapocalypse said:

Is the sentiment being expressed here that mahomes is a run-first qb? That he is closer to kap and rg3, then aaron rodgers or wentz?

 

I find that kind of crazy. Hes is not just a qb with a big arm and mobility. Ball placement, touch, pocket navigation were all things i saw on tape when studying. He was up and down at times. But i mean..5000+ yards , 40+ passing tds and 200+ yards rushing his final season. Mahomes mobility is an extra luxury, not what he relies on.

 

Hey Vikes,

 

No,  no one is saying he's a run first qb.

 

And I agree on your assessment of him.   He's just inconsistent which hopefully should be ironed out over time.   His one game this year vs Denver showed all the bad and the good.   Two throws in a row where he was an inaccurate mess, then a 3rd down tight window high velocity throw down the seam layered through 3 defenders that only a handful of NFL qbs can make.

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Just now, 96mnc said:

 

Hey Vikes,

 

No,  no one is saying he's a run first qb.

 

And I agree on your assessment of him.   He's just inconsistent which hopefully should be ironed out over time.   His one game this year vs Denver showed all the bad and the good.   Two throws in a row where he was an inaccurate mess, then a 3rd down tight window high velocity throw down the seam layered through 3 defenders that only a handful of NFL qbs can make.

 

Good to see you around, 96.

 

Fully agree. I see somebody who shows the flashes of a great qb, while showing inconsistencies. I DO see most of his issues as things that can be coached and fixed, but it will rely on his ability to soak in information and his commitment level to becoming better rather then relying on the athleticism that allowed him to excel in college.

 

Love the nice young weapons, dont mind the coaching staff--defensive play needs to improve but overall i like the current situation for his growth.

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3 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I've agreed that dual threat qb needs to be also able to operate from the pocket. 

 

But successful young qbs are increasingly dual threat. The league is morphing that way

 

 

2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 think the comment was made that the NFL transition to mobile QBs has failed, though, when it clearly is just blossoming.

 

The league isn't transitioning to mobile QBs.  The league is still about how well a QB can throw the ball first and foremost.  If a QB can run as well, that's a plus not a minus but at the end of the day how well they can throw the ball and read a defense is what determines which QB's will last long in the league and which ones won't.

 

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As far as the discussion about mobile/dual-threat QB's, I did some checking into the top 10 fantasy QB's this century. Here are their combined rushing totals:

 

**Top 10 Fantasy QB's**

--2000: 3030 rush yards (4 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2001: 2870 rush yards (3 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2002: 3138 rush yards (4 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2003: 1491 rush yards (8 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2004: 1405 rush yards (7 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2005: 1308 rush yards (9 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2006: 2259 rush yards (7 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2007: 895 rush yards (9 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2008: 1634 rush yards (5 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2009: 746 rush yards (9 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2010: 1713 rush yards (7 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2011: 1520 rush yards (8 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2012: 2792 rush yards (5 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2013: 2205 rush yards (6 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2014: 2006 rush yards (6 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2015: 2202 rush yards (6 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2016: 2441 rush yards (4 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2017: 2701 rush yards (5 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

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I don’t think we’ve seen enough Mahomes to reach any conclusions.  One game played, against a top5 defense, in a QB’s rookie year doesn’t tell me squat.

 

I don’t think anyone is drafting Mahomes as their starter.  What Mahomes is...is a high upside QB stash.  I’ll take him late thinking he could put up Watson’s numbers as his upside (though unlikely).  

 

It’s likely Mahomes throws a ton of pics, especially early in the season...  hopefully he runs enough to counterbalance the interceptions.

 

But who else has Mahomes upside as the ~20 QB taken?  I’m going to try pairing him with T. Hill...

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3 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

 

 

 

The league isn't transitioning to mobile QBs.  The league is still about how well a QB can throw the ball first and foremost.  If a QB can run as well, that's a plus not a minus but at the end of the day how well they can throw the ball and read a defense is what determines which QB's will last long in the league and which ones won't.

 

 

I don't disagree with any of this and I think we're getting stuck on semantics. A mobile qb, to me, is a qb capable of and comfortable with running for first downs, and extending plays with his feet, consistently.  That includes Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz. That also includes Kap and RGIII. 

 

The arm and the mind still are, and will be for the foreseeable future, the most important tools for an NFL QB.  Lack of legs is not necessarily a negative, if arm and mind are strong. 

 

But legs are becoming increasingly becoming a positive that teams are using to get wins. Seattle and GB don't win their Super Bowls if Wilson and Rodgers can't run the way they do. 

 

Maybe "athleticism" is a better term, I don't know, but I don't know how one can look at the successful young quarterbacks in the league and judge that mobility is not coming in vogue; that athleticism is increasingly correlated with success. 

 

I am young and maybe my opinion is biased by my limited perspective. I just look at all the QBs who are winning the most games in the past ten years. If I look at all QBs drafted after the Manning / Rivers / Roethlisberger draft, it seems to me that the vast majority of the successful ones have a + in the legs  column (in addition to arm and mind). I.e. The QBs winning more games, l more and more of them seem to have the extra trick in their bag. 

 

Offenses are adopting more college concepts. QBs who DEPEND on their legs will likely continue to fail. QBs who have legs to their skillet are differentiating themselves. Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, Wentz, and Ryan are the "new age" (ie post Brady, Mannings, Brees) QBs owning the NFC. Only one fits the old mold. Jury still out on Dak, Watson, Mariota, but things look promising. 

 

Again, arm and mind together still rule and always will. QBs who *add* legs are becoming more prominent and taking over. 

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

But who else has Mahomes upside as the ~20 QB taken?  I’m going to try pairing him with T. Hill...

I think he would be a great second or third QB in 2QB, especially if you pair him with another high risk reward like Watson and hope one pans out.

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I think Pat Mahomes will be a stud next year .. Put up the same numbers Alex did .. Sure more picks, but more yards and TDs .. People are really underselling this guy, and understandably so with no track record but that offense is too potent littered with studs at RB, WR, and TE .. Andy Reid is also a QB guru .. Just check the list .. Favre, Mcnabb, Detmer, Garcia, Kolb, Vick, Foles, Smith, etc .. He made some of those scrubs look like all pros and Mahomes is a generational talent 

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13 hours ago, Corleone said:

As far as the discussion about mobile/dual-threat QB's, I did some checking into the top 10 fantasy QB's this century. Here are their combined rushing totals:

 

**Top 10 Fantasy QB's**

--2000: 3030 rush yards (4 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2001: 2870 rush yards (3 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2002: 3138 rush yards (4 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2003: 1491 rush yards (8 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2004: 1405 rush yards (7 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2005: 1308 rush yards (9 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2006: 2259 rush yards (7 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2007: 895 rush yards (9 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2008: 1634 rush yards (5 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2009: 746 rush yards (9 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2010: 1713 rush yards (7 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2011: 1520 rush yards (8 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2012: 2792 rush yards (5 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2013: 2205 rush yards (6 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2014: 2006 rush yards (6 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2015: 2202 rush yards (6 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2016: 2441 rush yards (4 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

--2017: 2701 rush yards (5 of the top 10 were under 200 yards)

 

That is interesting.....

a definite ebb and flow to running qb production.    It looks like mobility is coming back in vogue

 

thanks for posting 

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19 hours ago, devaster said:

I will disagree with that the league is morphing that way. I think it has more to do with better athletes playing the QB position now than decades ago. Winston is another statue without a lot of mobility. Built more like a young Big Ben. Bradford has had success as a statue. Dalton. But about half the league or more have starters that are athletic and considered dual threats.

 

There is a big difference in guys like Rodgers and Tyrod/Kaep/Cam though. Rodgers extends plays when they break down. Those guys tend to look at one read and take off running. Those guys provide great fantasy floors, but poor real life floors.

 

The league still looks for their prototypical QB build. With the added bonus that a lot of incoming QB's have mobility in this day and age. But ultimately it comes down to passing.

No doubt .... I remember once upon a time it was rare to see a black man playing QB.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

That is interesting.....

a definite ebb and flow to running qb production.    It looks like mobility is coming back in vogue

 

thanks for posting 

 

Thanks and here is additional research as well...the combined rushing totals for the top 20 fantasy QB's going back to 1985:

 

**Top 20 Fantasy QB's**

--1985: 1825 rush yards  (top 10 had 51.5% of this yardage)

--1986: 3091 rush yards  (top 10 had 34.0% of this yardage)

--1987: 2489 rush yards  (top 10 had 68.9% of this yardage)

--1988: 2994 rush yards  (top 10 had 64.3% of this yardage)

--1989: 3160 rush yards  (top 10 had 70.0% of this yardage)

--1990: 4056 rush yards  (top 10 had 57.5% of this yardage)

--1991: 2353 rush yards  (top 10 had 64.7% of this yardage)

--1992: 3251 rush yards  (top 10 had 58.1% of this yardage)

--1993: 2874 rush yards  (top 10 had 56.6% of this yardage)

--1994: 2186 rush yards  (top 10 had 62.5% of this yardage)

--1995: 2511 rush yards  (top 10 had 52.3% of this yardage)

--1996: 2684 rush yards  (top 10 had 72.4% of this yardage)

--1997: 3202 rush yards  (top 10 had 71.5% of this yardage)

--1998: 3513 rush yards  (top 10 had 54.0% of this yardage)

--1999: 3117 rush yards  (top 10 had 55.5% of this yardage)

--2000: 4985 rush yards  (top 10 had 60.8% of this yardage)

--2001: 4560 rush yards  (top 10 had 62.9% of this yardage)

--2002: 4626 rush yards  (top 10 had 67.8% of this yardage)

--2003: 2698 rush yards  (top 10 had 55.3% of this yardage)

--2004: 3391 rush yards  (top 10 had 41.4% of this yardage)

--2005: 2464 rush yards  (top 10 had 53.1% of this yardage)

--2006: 3221 rush yards  (top 10 had 70.1% of this yardage)

--2007: 2421 rush yards  (top 10 had 37.0% of this yardage)

--2008: 2550 rush yards  (top 10 had 64.1% of this yardage)

--2009: 2086 rush yards  (top 10 had 35.8% of this yardage)

--2010: 3194 rush yards  (top 10 had 53.6% of this yardage)

--2011: 3871 rush yards  (top 10 had 39.3% of this yardage)

--2012: 3669 rush yards  (top 10 had 76.1% of this yardage)

--2013: 4559 rush yards  (top 10 had 48.4% of this yardage)

--2014: 4216 rush yards  (top 10 had 47.6% of this yardage)

--2015: 4292 rush yards  (top 10 had 51.3% of this yardage)

--2016: 3966 rush yards  (top 10 had 61.5% of this yardage)

--2017: 4611 rush yards  (top 10 had 58.6% of this yardage)

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On 2/2/2018 at 9:06 PM, Lord_Varys said:

"... Offenses are adopting more college concepts. QBs who DEPEND on their legs will likely continue to fail. QBs who have legs to their skillet are differentiating themselves. Rodgers, Wilson, Newton, Wentz, and Ryan are the "new age" (ie post Brady, Mannings, Brees) QBs owning the NFC. Only one fits the old mold. Jury still out on Dak, Watson, Mariota, but things look promising." 

 

The single wing concept just keep resurfacing (wildcat, read/option & RPOs), but they often don't go all the way with it. We don't see the staggered formations, delayed options or quick-hitting & blurring misdirection. The QB reads a single defender, usually one responsible for contain... that's it. But I believe eventually it will come back, at least in known situations. When offenses want to close out a game but they do not want to stop the clock or take chances, they run the football. But today, defenses are so fast, when they overplay something correctly it's like a six yard loss. The old single wing stuff affords them a conservative approach but with a considerable degree of diversion. When everybody in the stadium knows you're going to run, this is exactly the sort of stuff we may see more of.    

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Im all over this kid for next season. His arm talent is insane and he's got weapons to spare. He and Jimmy G will be on a lot of my 2018 teams.

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On 2/2/2018 at 11:10 PM, FantasyGuru24 said:

I think Pat Mahomes will be a stud next year .. Put up the same numbers Alex did .. Sure more picks, but more yards and TDs .. People are really underselling this guy, and understandably so with no track record but that offense is too potent littered with studs at RB, WR, and TE .. Andy Reid is also a QB guru .. Just check the list .. Favre, Mcnabb, Detmer, Garcia, Kolb, Vick, Foles, Smith, etc .. He made some of those scrubs look like all pros and Mahomes is a generational talent 

 

Based on what? You may ultimately be right but it's WAY too early to anoint  Mahomes stud status. We just don't know. There's been tons of QBs just as talented or even more so who have fallen on their face.  To say he's going to put up the same numbers as a pro bowler like Alex Smith, as a rookie is a bold statement. 

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You know, I think I should point out that there's someone who stands to benefit from Mahomes starting. Y'all remember Chris Conley?  The 6'3" athletic freak from Georgia?  I can definitely see him hitting 1000 yards with Mahomes at the wheel. He has the talent, and now he has a QB who will chuck it.

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1 hour ago, GreatestShowonTurf said:

You know, I think I should point out that there's someone who stands to benefit from Mahomes starting. Y'all remember Chris Conley?  The 6'3" athletic freak from Georgia?  I can definitely see him hitting 1000 yards with Mahomes at the wheel. He has the talent, and now he has a QB who will chuck it.

I'm pretty sure Chris Conley would have been showing more with Alex Smith if he had the talent to start in the NFL.

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2 hours ago, GreatestShowonTurf said:

You know, I think I should point out that there's someone who stands to benefit from Mahomes starting. Y'all remember Chris Conley?  The 6'3" athletic freak from Georgia?  I can definitely see him hitting 1000 yards with Mahomes at the wheel. He has the talent, and now he has a QB who will chuck it.

 

I'd say Mahomes to DeMarcus Robinson is a connection to watch. They made a lot of big plays together in preseason. 

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